Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Blackhawk42]

You can add Moore, Cousins and Greaves to list the list of good young players.

These 3 have shown how wrong Clarko has gotten it this season.

Was hell bent on playing Minchington and Scully before Moore.
Glass and Nash before Greaves.
And Shiels should have been filtered out to a wing earlier to let Cousins have a longer crack at it.

I'll be incredibly disappointed if any of those 3 are delisted. Won't be elite players, but they showed their capabilities in recent weeks.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Surprised to find Hawthorn supporters comparing Worpel to Leigh Matthews tbh. Odd comparison.

 

[Saint]

Worpel can be in Hawthorn's top 5 players and Hawthorn's list can still be average. I would suggest that the two are more likely to be correlated than not.

I think he's a good player. Reminds me of a lot of Essendon midfielders. Just good.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Win 3 Premierships and then finish bottom four for 3-4 years? I’ll take it!

Good. Cause you got it.

 

[hk89]

Good. Cause you got it.

Very unlikely. We only just made bottom 4 in a year when we had two games at our home ground (one of them against another MCG tenant). Assuming next season is COVID free, and we have a full set of MCG and Tassie games, we'll also be combining that with the draw of a bottom 6 team. Only way I can see us being as bad next year is if we try to engineer a lowly finish by pulling the trigger early on the likes of Frawley or trade out the likes of Gunston/Breust. Some non-VIC teams have been severely flattered by the COVID draw. GC won 1 game for the entire season away from their home ground for example. If you reversed our home ground and GC home ground situation this season, we'd not have finished bottom 4 this year, they'd have replaced us.

 

[Stecklp]

So you can cite his 2019 form to suit your narrative, but not Worpel's??
That's like comparing Mitch Lewis' 2019 to this year. It's just proof he's gone backwards. Lewis missed the entire pre season with shoulder surgery, but he's the crab, and can't use that as an excuse for the form drop off!!

Naughton will be a good player. But he's overeated at present. Based on 2020 form. Thats all you can go off.

If you asked teams in 2019 who they would take between Worpel and Naughton, they would all take Naughton in a heartbeat.

Let it go, dude. You're very clearly delusional when it comes to Worpel's ability.

 

[hk89]

If you asked teams in 2019 who they would take between Worpel and Naughton, they would all take Naughton in a heartbeat.

I'd take Naughton too (we need his type right now more than we need an inside bull), but the fact remains that at this point in their careers, Worpel has been a more effective mid than Naughton has been a forward. They both had poor 2020's but Naughton's was probably worse. If Worpel is a crab compared to elite mids, then Naughton is currently a super crab compared to elite forwards.

 

[TylerDurden]

If you asked teams in 2019 who they would take between Worpel and Naughton, they would all take Naughton in a heartbeat.

Let it go, dude. You're very clearly delusional when it comes to Worpel's ability.

Clearly delusional. Yeah he's shit. Righto mate.

You're making out like Naughton is the next Buddy. Who, in his third year, kicked a ton. Rather than averaging 8 touches a game. Now that's delusional.

 

[Stecklp]

Clearly delusional. Yeah he's sh*t. Righto mate.

You're making out like Naughton is the next Buddy. Who, in his third year, kicked a ton. Rather than averaging 8 touches a game. Now that's delusional.

I didn't say he's sh*t, I said he's a good solid, slow, run of the mill midfielder, and every club in the AFL would take Naughton over him in a heartbeat.

You're making out like Naughton is the next Buddy

By what? Saying every club in the AFL would take him over Worpel?

Yeah, that's totally like saying he's the next Buddy. You're delusional.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Clearly delusional. Yeah he's sh*t. Righto mate.

You're making out like Naughton is the next Buddy. Who, in his third year, kicked a ton. Rather than averaging 8 touches a game. Now that's delusional.

4th year, 3rd year he kicked 75. Point being Naughton isnt even in that ballpark at the same stages of their careers yet I reckon the hype is just as much. He can take a grab that's great what else is he bringing to the table ATM. He is overrated until the output matches the hype consistently.

 

[TylerDurden]

I didn't say he's sh*t, I said he's a good solid, slow, run of the mill midfielder, and every club in the AFL would take Naughton over him in a heartbeat.

Was a shit attempt at trolling in the first place.
1. How do you even compare a key fwd and a mid?
2. One was a top 10 pick, and the other was pick 45.

You're entitled to your opinion, but im wanting much more from a top 10 pick key position player. We had 2 dominant ones that won us a bunch of flags.

Worpel, as pick 45 mid, is over achieving based on expectation. One BnF already banked, and his numbers represent those of seasoned mids who've been in the system 7 years already.

Hate to think what he would've produced in our golden years, with Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis around him. He'd be lacing Buddy out on a weekly basis.

We've had a shit year, but Worpel is the last bloke I'd be potting on our list at present.

Call that delusional all you want buddy.

 

[WWSD]

I'd take Naughton too (we need his type right now more than we need an inside bull), but the fact remains that at this point in their careers, Worpel has been a more effective mid than Naughton has been a forward. They both had poor 2020's but Naughton's was probably worse. If Worpel is a crab compared to elite mids, then Naughton is currently a super crab compared to elite forwards.

Roughead in his 3rd year was already dominating at the same age as Naughton as a key forward.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Was a sh*t attempt at trolling in the first place.
1. How do you even compare a key fwd and a mid?
2. One was a top 10 pick, and the other was pick 45.

You're entitled to your opinion, but im wanting much more from a top 10 pick key position player. We had 2 dominant ones that won us a bunch of flags.

Worpel, as pick 45 mid, is over achieving based on expectation. One BnF already banked, and his numbers represent those of seasoned mids who've been in the system 7 years already.

Hate to think what he would've produced in our golden years, with Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis around him. He'd be lacing Buddy out on a weekly basis.

We've had a sh*t year, but Worpel is the last bloke I'd be potting on our list at present.

Call that delusional all you want buddy.

With their midfield 30 goals is a par goal return IMO which he kicked last year. Lewis nearly did that with a much more inferior midfield. Gunston would kick 60 if we had an elite midfield. Naughton has a way to go.

 

[SSSSSS]

Seriously Hawk fans, I can't believe you have to tolerate all this bollocks from salty oppo. Clearly your 3-peat has you still living rent-free in their heads.

70's and 80's also have the boomers riled up.

 

[Bulldog1954]

Roughead in his 3rd year was already dominating at the same age as Naughton as a key forward.

Not really a fair comparison.

Naughton injured his left knee in the finals last year cutting right into his pre-season. He then injured his right knee just before the season started. He then was out for 6 weeks with an ankle syndesmosis injury and now has a fractured cheekbone. He has played 10 games, two of which he has gone off injured in the first half.

Also Roughead dominating in his third season comprised of 10 disposals, 1.8 goals per game and 18 contested marks. If that's "dominating", does Naughtons second season of 11 disposals, 1.4 goals per game and 53 contested marks also count as dominating? Naughton also had Josh Schache as the other key forward in the side, not Lance Franklin and was in a lower scoring side? While they both also started out in the AFL as defenders, Roughead played primarily forward as a junior, Naughton had been a defender his whole life until being thrown into the deep end as a forward at the start of last year due to Boyd being out.

I'm not saying Naughton will have as good a career as Roughy, I'd be rapt if he did, but your comparison of their third years is discounting many many factors.

 

[Pessimistic]

I'd take Naughton too (we need his type right now more than we need an inside bull), but the fact remains that at this point in their careers, Worpel has been a more effective mid than Naughton has been a forward. They both had poor 2020's but Naughton's was probably worse. If Worpel is a crab compared to elite mids, then Naughton is currently a super crab compared to elite forwards.

the point is the hawks drafted and developed a player with early third young pick of equal value to a late first rounder. Hawks aren’t getting the absolute cream like the king brothers, but they aren’t losing that much with late first round picks, which often creep into the #20s with all the compromises

they are still getting best 22 regulars with 40% approximately of their draft picks, the AFL average

 

[hk89]

Not really a fair comparison.

Naughton injured his left knee in the finals last year cutting right into his pre-season. He then injured his right knee just before the season started. He then was out for 6 weeks with an ankle syndesmosis injury and now has a fractured cheekbone. He has played 10 games, two of which he has gone off injured in the first half.

So what you're saying is that Naughton is a very injury prone player, and has had a few injuries in his second and third year that could easily prevent him from reaching his talent ceiling. Right knee, Left knee, ankle sydnesmosis. These are all serious injuries with potential long term repercussions. Hopefully Naughton gets over these issues and produces his best footy, but right now avoiding Naughton by trading for O'Meara looks like a bullet dodged. O'Meara only has one dodgy knee, not two and and a dodgy ankle.

Also Roughead dominating in his third season comprised of 10 disposals, 1.8 goals per game and 18 contested marks. If that's "dominating", does Naughtons second season of 11 disposals, 1.4 goals per game and 53 contested marks also count as dominating? Naughton also had Josh Schache as the other key forward in the side, not Lance Franklin and was in a lower scoring side? While they both also started out in the AFL as defenders, Roughead played primarily forward as a junior, Naughton had been a defender his whole life until being thrown into the deep end as a forward at the start of last year due to Boyd being out.

No doubt Naughton had a great second year, but keep in mind when comparing to Roughy in 2007, that Naughton was the second highest goal scorer in your team that year, with the highest scoring only 38. Roughy kicked 40 in 2007 while sharing it with a player who kicked 73 and demanded a shit load of incoming ball. Admittedly Naughton's second year was considerably more impressive than Roughy's second year, but Mark Williams was basically our full forward that year, kicking 60. We were also bottom 6, so didn't play finals.

I really do hope Naughton gets over his run of injuries. He's certainly talented (more so than Worpel if you judge Naughton on 2019), and it would be a pity not to see that realised.

 

[Bulldog1954]

No doubt Naughton had a great second year, but keep in mind when comparing to Roughy in 2007, that Naughton was the second highest goal scorer in your team that year, with the highest scoring only 38. Roughy kicked 40 in 2007 while sharing it with a player who kicked 73 and demanded a sh*t load of incoming ball.

That’s a fair point, but it works both ways. The best defender wasn’t going to Roughy, but they were going to Naughton.

Anyway, I won’t derail the thread any further, just felt that a few factors contributing to Naughton’s year were perhaps being overlooked.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

sure, but every club would still take Naughton. If Beveridge approached Clarkson tomorrow and suggested a straight trade of Naughton with Worpell, Clarkson would agree faster than his umpire complaints.

He would throw Mitch Lewis in as well, even though it would still not be enough.

 

[HeHateMe]

He would throw Mitch Lewis in as well, even though it would still not be enough.

In 2 years we will go from "not enough" to "the best youth in the comp" watch this space.

 

[Saint]

In 2 years we will go from "not enough" to "the best youth in the comp" watch this space.

(According to Hawthorn fans who are still talking about their climb out of the cellar being just around the corner).

I don't think home ground advantage has had much influence this year, most of the games were neutral. Perhaps it favoured the GC who were pretty bad once Rowell went down. The final 8 has barely changed from last year. Everyone said Geelong and Richmond were favoured by their home grounds, but they both still finished top 4 without it.

Dogs, Pies and even the Saints managed to win enough games. Not sure why Hawthorn will improve with home ground advantage, but the 9 teams above them who will also benefit will suddenly lose lots of matches.

 

[HeHateMe]

(According to Hawthorn fans who are still talking about their climb out of the cellar being just around the corner).

I don't think home ground advantage has had much influence this year, most of the games were neutral. Perhaps it favoured the GC who were pretty bad once Rowell went down. The final 8 has barely changed from last year. Everyone said Geelong and Richmond were favoured by their home grounds, but they both still finished top 4 without it.

Dogs, Pies and even the Saints managed to win enough games. Not sure why Hawthorn will improve with home ground advantage, but the 9 teams above them who will also benefit will suddenly lose lots of matches.

This thread will still be going so I'll quote you again in 2 years. But our efficiency with later picks, combined with access to top end talent will put us in a very good position. This is before you consider development and coaching.

The league is in transition those with the best young talent are now making finals and will no longer have access.

I guess Sydney will be the biggest hurdle on the climb back.

 

[Saint]

I guess Sydney will be the biggest hurdle on the climb back.

You're worried about getting past the team one spot below you on the ladder, but not the 14 teams ahead of you?

I reckon Richmond might have something to say about being the biggest hurdle in the next 2 years, let alone the other 13 teams ahead of you.

 

[HeHateMe]

You're worried about getting past the team one spot below you on the ladder, but not the 14 teams ahead of you?

I reckon Richmond might have something to say about being the biggest hurdle in the next 2 years, let alone the other 13 teams ahead of you.

Okay I get where you are confused. Your talking about a premiership in 2 years I'm not. Young teams very rarely win premierships.

I said in 2 years we will go from "not enough" to "Best young talent".
Richmond very likely still a force in 2 years trying to cap off the carees of Martin and co with 1 more tilt.

 

[Pessimistic]

(According to Hawthorn fans who are still talking about their climb out of the cellar being just around the corner).

I don't think home ground advantage has had much influence this year, most of the games were neutral. Perhaps it favoured the GC who were pretty bad once Rowell went down. The final 8 has barely changed from last year. Everyone said Geelong and Richmond were favoured by their home grounds, but they both still finished top 4 without it.

Dogs, Pies and even the Saints managed to win enough games. Not sure why Hawthorn will improve with home ground advantage, but the 9 teams above them who will also benefit will suddenly lose lots of matches.

A selection of Hawthorns home games: North at metricon; Adelaide at adelaide oval