Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Bulldog Joe]

In 2 years we will go from "not enough" to "the best youth in the comp" watch this space.

Nice that Hawthorn has such a magic touch picking youth, that they ignored it for so many years.

Picks surrenderd for O'Meara and Wingard because they so clearly identified the talent pool in 2017 and 2018 wasn't worth their effort.

Now they get a top 5 pick (if they don't trade it) in the most compromised draft since GWS entered.

Certainly shows how they rate their chances at picking the young talent.

 

[hk89]

I don't think home ground advantage has had much influence this year, most of the games were neutral.

If you think that then you need to reassess your thinking ability. When one team has two games at their home ground and have to play home games at their opponent's home ground, and a bunch of games at other team's home grounds with crowds and home ground umpiring then the home grounds had a huge influence. You don't think it is a coincidence that Essendon's only wins for the year away from their home ground was against bottom 4 teams?

Dogs, Pies and even the Saints managed to win enough games. Not sure why Hawthorn will improve with home ground advantage, but the 9 teams above them who will also benefit will suddenly lose lots of matches.

Dogs, Pies and Saints all had more games at their home grounds than Hawthorn. Saints and Dogs had twice as many. In any case the argument is not that it was massively different between Hawthorn and those teams - even though Hawthorn had the lowest number of home ground games of any team. The argument is all the non-Vic teams had a shit load more home games than Hawthorn, and when that evens up next year we should perform relatively better compared to teams that start getting the same number of home games as us. We'd have beaten Port with MCG crowd umpiring for example, just the same way we beat two of the three other top 4 sides when we actually played at the MCG.

We'll do a shit load better than Essendon next year. Before the COVID draw we beat two of the eventual top 4 teams. Essendon didn't beat anyone above 8th spot for the entire season. Essendon beat each of the 4 bottom teams and their only two other wins were against Freo and Pies (both games played at Essendon's home ground).

 

[HairyO]

A selection of Hawthorns home games: North at metricon; Adelaide at adelaide oval

We played North at Docklands. I think we played Freo in Perth as a home game.

And despite most games being held at neutral grounds, we still managed 7 official "home" games and 10 official "away" games. Not sure why it wouldnt have just been 8 and 9. But the AFL does have a history of making things up as they go.

 

[HeHateMe]

Nice that Hawthorn has such a magic touch picking youth, that they ignored it for so many years.

Picks surrenderd for O'Meara and Wingard because they so clearly identified the talent pool in 2017 and 2018 wasn't worth their effort.

Now they get a top 5 pick (if they don't trade it) in the most compromised draft since GWS entered.

Certainly shows how they rate their chances at picking the young talent.

Call it what ever you want but hawthorn has been really efficient at the draft for a while now.
Definitely has helps shield the blow from the weak draft hands.

Evidence is in the pudding, will that continue, I hope so.

 

[Saint]

Dogs, Pies and Saints all had more games at their home grounds than Hawthorn. Saints and Dogs had twice as many. In any case the argument is not that it was massively different between Hawthorn and those teams - even though Hawthorn had the lowest number of home ground games of any team. The argument is all the non-Vic teams had a sh*t load more home games than Hawthorn, and when that evens up next year we should perform relatively better compared to teams that start getting the same number of home games as us.

How many games difference do you think this will make? You were 5 games behind those 3 teams and they had 2 more home games than you? Clutching at real straws to say Hawthorn had such a worse home ground advantage compared to other Victorian teams this year.

 

[SSSSSS]

Nice that Hawthorn has such a magic touch picking youth, that they ignored it for so many years.

Picks surrenderd for O'Meara and Wingard because they so clearly identified the talent pool in 2017 and 2018 wasn't worth their effort.

Now they get a top 5 pick (if they don't trade it) in the most compromised draft since GWS entered.

Certainly shows how they rate their chances at picking the young talent.

Not for us

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Not for us

Really?

When did we have a situation where the majority of expected draftees have simply not be able to play.
If that doesn't compromise the draft I'm not sure what does.

Then we also have the most aligned players ever.

The draft is compromised when teams playing finals are likely to get top 5 picks they didn't even trade for, so Hawthorn are going to be shuffled down the list, despite their low finishing position.

Hawthorn's position is compromised.

 

[Saint]

Call it what ever you want but hawthorn has been really efficient at the draft for a while now.
Definitely has helps shield the blow from the weak draft hands.

Evidence is in the pudding, will that continue, I hope so.

What are you talking about? You have to go back to 2013 to find 5 people getting a regular match who were drafted by Hawthorn. And that includes Lewis and Ceglar who are probably in the worse 2-3 in the league in their respective positions.

The other three are Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel.

Average draft picks, average players. From 2013-2015, more of those players have been delisted than are still playing. Bit harsh on the 2018-2019 crop, can't judge them yet, but 3 decent draftees in 15 picks (2013-17) is hardly "efficient". Probably about the same as every other teams' drafting outside the first round.

2019 -
Day
Maginness
Morris

2018 -
Koschitzke
Walker

2017 -
Worpel
Moore
J Ross

2016 -
M Lewis

2015-
Burton
Lovell
Hardwick

2014-
Howe
Miles
Pittonet

2013
Hartung
Garlett
Sicily
Ceglar
Langford

 

[WWSD]

What are you talking about? You have to go back to 2013 to find 5 people getting a regular match who were drafted by Hawthorn. And that includes Lewis and Ceglar who are probably in the worse 2-3 in the league in their respective positions.

The other three are Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel.

Average draft picks, average players. From 2013-2015, more of those players have been delisted than are still playing. Bit harsh on the 2018-2019 crop, can't judge them yet, but 3 decent draftees in 15 picks (2013-17) is hardly "efficient". Probably about the same as every other teams' drafting outside the first round.

2019 -
Day
Maginness
Morris

2018 -
Koschitzke
Walker

2017 -
Worpel
Moore
J Ross

2016 -
M Lewis

2015-
Burton
Lovell
Hardwick

2014-
Howe
Miles
Pittonet

2013
Hartung
Garlett
Sicily
Ceglar
Langford

Thanks Dodo

 

[WWSD]

Really?

When did we have a situation where the majority of expected draftees have simply not be able to play.
If that doesn't compromise the draft I'm not sure what does.

Then we also have the most aligned players ever.

The draft is compromised when teams playing finals are likely to get top 5 picks they didn't even trade for, so Hawthorn are going to be shuffled down the list, despite their low finishing position.

Hawthorn's position is compromised.

LOL

Hawthorn are guaranteed to get one of Bruhn, O’Driscoll, Tilthorpe, DGB or Phillips with pick 4. Next year Hawthorn will also have another top 5 selection, with next years draft touted as even stronger than this years, plus a ton of cap space with impending retirements. Then it’s back to the MCG.

 

[HeHateMe]

What are you talking about? You have to go back to 2013 to find 5 people getting a regular match who were drafted by Hawthorn. And that includes Lewis and Ceglar who are probably in the worse 2-3 in the league in their respective positions.

The other three are Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel.

Average draft picks, average players. From 2013-2015, more of those players have been delisted than are still playing. Bit harsh on the 2018-2019 crop, can't judge them yet, but 3 decent draftees in 15 picks (2013-17) is hardly "efficient". Probably about the same as every other teams' drafting outside the first round.

2019 -
Day
Maginness
Morris

2018 -
Koschitzke
Walker

2017 -
Worpel
Moore
J Ross

2016 -
M Lewis

2015-
Burton
Lovell
Hardwick

2014-
Howe
Miles
Pittonet

2013
Hartung
Garlett
Sicily
Ceglar
Langford

Efficient not perfect.

Now do the other 17 clubs to compare the efficiency.

 

[Saint]

Efficient not perfect.

Now do the other 17 clubs to compare the efficiency.

Over the same period (2013-17), outside the first round, Essendon have drafted:
Merrett, Draper, Redman, Fantasia, Ridley, McDonald-Tipungwuti, (also Hartley, but he's Hawthorn's problem now)

And according to Hawthorn people Dodoro is hopeless.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Over the same period (2013-17), outside the first round, Essendon have drafted:
Merrett, Draper, Redman, Fantasia, Ridley, McDonald-Tipungwuti, (also Hartley, but he's Hawthorn's problem now)

And according to Hawthorn people Dodoro is hopeless.

I think you're missing the point hawthorn did not have picks or maybe 1 pick during that period in the elite end of the draft. Essendon did

 

[HeHateMe]

Over the same period (2013-17), outside the first round, Essendon have drafted:
Merrett, Draper, Redman, Fantasia, Ridley, McDonald-Tipungwuti, (also Hartley, but he's Hawthorn's problem now)

And according to Hawthorn people Dodoro is hopeless.

Efficiency is how close you get to the best available player at your pick.

Since you chose Essendon we might as well Compare them.

You have mentioned Merrett, Draper, Redman, Fantasia, Ridley, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Hartley for Essendon
And Sicily, Worpel, Hardwick, Lewis, Day, Pittonet, Burton among others for Hawthorn.

I'll go check now where they were drafted and who was still available and get back to you.

 

[Saint]

I think you're missing the point hawthorn did not have picks or maybe 1 pick during that period in the elite end of the draft. Essendon did

I think you're missing the point, I excluded Essendon's first round picks from this list (but did include Burton for Hawthorn)

 

[Saint]

Efficiency is how close you get to the best available player at your pick.

Since you chose Essendon we might as well Compare them.

You have mentioned Merrett, Draper, Redman, Fantasia, Ridley, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Hartley for Essendon
And Sicily, Worpel, Hardwick, Lewis, Day, Pittonet, Burton among others for Hawthorn.

I'll go check now where they were drafted and who was still available and get back to you.

Seeing who was still available is nonsense, but happy for you to add what pick they went.

Just make sure you don't leave out the misses if you're going to do that. Hartung and Lovell were early second-round, Burton was actually first-round wasn't he?

 

[Pessimistic]

Nice that Hawthorn has such a magic touch picking youth, that they ignored it for so many years.

Picks surrenderd for O'Meara and Wingard because they so clearly identified the talent pool in 2017 and 2018 wasn't worth their effort.

Now they get a top 5 pick (if they don't trade it) in the most compromised draft since GWS entered.

Certainly shows how they rate their chances at picking the young talent.

The GWS drafts (and the Gold coast's for good measure):

2009	Gibson Burgoyne	Grimley 39 Stratton 46 Williams 57 Hooper 58 Duryea 69	Skipper 13 Kayler-T 29 Johnston 42
2010	Hale Cheney	Smith 19 Hallahan 38 Litherland 58 Puopolo 68	Menegola 19 Schneider 36 Wanganeen 52
2011	Gunston Boumann	Hill 33 Kelly 38 Woodward 58	McCauley 16 Frank 34 Boseley 52 Pattison 69 W Langford s

Wasn't that when all the chasing clubs were "Its not fair , GC/GWS taking the players we need to chase Hawthorn"

7 triple premiership players there. Not just 40% serviceable players, 40% champions #compromised

 

[Pessimistic]

So now the vibe is 'you picked the wrong year' (to tank)

Truth is many many years are the wrong year to tank, that's why the concept is flawed. Carlton #1 pick 3 years running

to which the daleks say "you have to tank for a few years" orly?

 

[HeHateMe]

Seeing who was still available is nonsense, but happy for you to add what pick they went.

Just make sure you don't leave out the misses if you're going to do that. Hartung and Lovell were early second-round, Burton was actually first-round wasn't he?

I don't really care about framing an argument to suit a narrative, I just believe Hawks have been very efficient at the draft. No one has a 100% efficiency and the ability to pick up the best available talent is the entire topic when it comes to efficiency. So not nonsense at all.

If you don't think efficiency helps clubs then that's your opinion, I do and that's one of the reasons I feel Hawks will be able to draft some of the best kids over the next 2 years and build some of the best youth in the comp.

Anyone I'll go compare them now.

 

[TheFourPillars]

I think you're missing the point, I excluded Essendon's first round picks from this list (but did include Burton for Hawthorn)

Ok fair enough haven't been following all good carry on

 

[TylerDurden]

Compromised draft fellas. Which means that Hollands or Phillips will be no good. Elite end and all that.

 

[Saint]

I don't really care about framing an argument to suit a narrative, I just believe Hawks have been very efficient at the draft. No one has a 100% efficiency and the ability to pick up the best available talent is the entire topic when it comes to efficiency. So not nonsense at all.

If you don't think efficiency helps clubs then that's your opinion, I do and that's one of the reasons I feel Hawks will be able to draft some of the best kids over the next 2 years and build some of the best youth in the comp.

Anyone I'll go compare them now.

You believe it, but it just doesn't stand up to any form of interrogation. Even against Essendon and we're cellar-dwellers too with supposedly the worst recruiter in the league.

Imagine if we did Geelong (Menegola, Tim Kelly, Miers, Parfitt, Ratugolea, Kolodjashnij) or Richmond (Balta, Bolton, Markov, Broad, Butler, Castagna, Soldo, Lambert).

They're all second-rounders or beyond.

Just because the Hawthorn board and Clarkson "believe" Hawthorn are efficient at the draft, doesn't mean it's true. Nor that Mr Miyagi fixed Burgoyne therefore Patton will be resurrected at Hawthorn. How about Tyrone Vickery?

 

[Saint]

Naughton was CHF in the Under 22 team, where was Worpel? Was Worpel injured this year?

 

[WWSD]

Nice of the AFL media experts out there talking up Gunston and Breust. If any team is going to trade for them, they won’t be coming cheap.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

LOL

Hawthorn are guaranteed to get one of Bruhn, O’Driscoll, Tilthorpe, DGB or Phillips with pick 4. Next year Hawthorn will also have another top 5 selection, with next years draft touted as even stronger than this years, plus a ton of cap space with impending retirements. Then it’s back to the MCG.

So you don't feel compromised that your current draft pick 4, won't see you get access until at least pick 5.

You also don't feel compromised that the player you pick may not be as good as someone you could have preferred if there was any 2020 form in Victoria to guide on the improvers from 2019 form.

Happy for you.