No it got younger. Scrimshaw is younger than Burton, Wingard younger than Duryea and Scully younger than Rioli. Then we will add two 18 yos to replace Vickery and whoever else we delist.
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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?
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No it got younger. Scrimshaw is younger than Burton, Wingard younger than Duryea and Scully younger than Rioli. Then we will add two 18 yos to replace Vickery and whoever else we delist.
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- Jan 9, 2007
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Yeah I'm positive this topic has been done.
- Jul 16, 2013
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True. But then add a year to everyone else as well who stayed.
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The eight or nine 30+ year olds will all be gone by 2020.
Good point. That is beyond my maths skills!
- Feb 15, 2006
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Yes I think the Hawks will feel the pain from 2021 onwards
Unsurprisingly, Hawthorn supporters can find no fault in their club's recent draft/trade approach. And I suppose it's understandable when they've seen so much success.
Yes they traded well, but the foundation of their flags were the draft. The foundation to Geelong's success was the draft. But for some reason these two clubs are paranoid about spending one or maybe two years max down the ladder and going again. If supporters are happy with their haul of flags and just want to see wins then fine. But I suspect for most that's not the case.
Dynasties are built through the draft and Hawthorn have completely forsaken the draft. I'm as certain as I can be that this approach won't win them more flags.
No-one is suggesting you don't bring in talent from other clubs, but it should complement your drafting strategy not decimate it.
Richmond's list and flag was built through the draft.
It is nice to see though that Hawthorn supporters have an ally in Geelong fans. Wonder why ?
Yes they traded well, but the foundation of their flags were the draft. The foundation to Geelong's success was the draft. But for some reason these two clubs are paranoid about spending one or maybe two years max down the ladder and going again. If supporters are happy with their haul of flags and just want to see wins then fine. But I suspect for most that's not the case.
Dynasties are built through the draft and Hawthorn have completely forsaken the draft. I'm as certain as I can be that this approach won't win them more flags.
No-one is suggesting you don't bring in talent from other clubs, but it should complement your drafting strategy not decimate it.
Richmond's list and flag was built through the draft.
It is nice to see though that Hawthorn supporters have an ally in Geelong fans. Wonder why ?
The Chadinator
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Man, I hate it when you’re right.
Hawthorn might go to the draft for elite young talent when they start getting elite level draft picks.
The reality is Hawthorn have not had an elite level draft pick for a very long time - the last 3 top 6 draft picks the Hawks had were complete misses.
Even elite draft picks 6-10 are way less than a 50/50 proposition.
The reality is Hawthorn have not had an elite level draft pick for a very long time - the last 3 top 6 draft picks the Hawks had were complete misses.
Even elite draft picks 6-10 are way less than a 50/50 proposition.
Hawks would have given up a lot had they gone a full rebuild through the draft. By going about it the way they did they got to leverage Clarkson's reputation and the stars they still had to attract other top talent to their club. You could easily go to the bottom of the ladder and spend 3 years there and not get a player as good as Mitchell. That's not to mention all the other guys they've attracted to the club.
I don't know if they will end up winning another premiership but I don't expect we'll see the Hawks bottom out in the next 3 years. If I had to guess I would expect something similar to Geelong over the last few years.
I don't know if they will end up winning another premiership but I don't expect we'll see the Hawks bottom out in the next 3 years. If I had to guess I would expect something similar to Geelong over the last few years.
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Question remains are dynasties built on drafts, topping up or combo of both, we have seen teams like Melb and Carlton take best part of 20 years to finally get sides that can compete, look at St Kilda 6 years into a rebuild and they look no closer to a finals series despite having great picks, whilst Geelong and Hawthorn are using the same strategy it is for different reasons.
What if it was a fact that less than 40% of top 10 draft picks would be considered a "win"?
I just checked the draft from 2005-2014 and I have it at 33-35 out of 100 being "wins". Even the 2001 super draft would only be 5 and 1 of those is run of the mill - Hale.
If your chances are less than 1 in 3, then the strategy of trading 2 picks for one known quantity stacks up.
It does have some downsides - known quantities cost more in your cap and they are older.
I think one of the key things the Hawks and also the Cats get right is they rarely go for the stupid money trades or free agents. Mitch is relatively cheap, so is Danger. that is where the real advantage lies.
I just checked the draft from 2005-2014 and I have it at 33-35 out of 100 being "wins". Even the 2001 super draft would only be 5 and 1 of those is run of the mill - Hale.
If your chances are less than 1 in 3, then the strategy of trading 2 picks for one known quantity stacks up.
It does have some downsides - known quantities cost more in your cap and they are older.
I think one of the key things the Hawks and also the Cats get right is they rarely go for the stupid money trades or free agents. Mitch is relatively cheap, so is Danger. that is where the real advantage lies.
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Unfortunately, the “experts” we get in Australia are terrible in their analysis. Dal and Johno’s Prediction of a bottom 4 finish is ridiculous (barring a major crisis). It’s easy to look at a list and say that there are 9 players who will be 30 and older next year and they will fall because of it, but if you look a bit closer there shouldn’t really much of a drop off from that collective group.
Puopolo and Roughead weren’t all that great this year, Birchall didn’t play at all. I guess Burgoyne may be a player that hits a bit of a wall, but even he wasn’t absolutely major for them. McEvoy, Smith and Stratton are only just turning 30 so you wouldn’t expect a drop from them just yet. Frawley is maybe a player who is showing some signs of time catching up with him and Henderson was a dfa and pretty replaceable (although I thought he was pretty good this year).
They add an All Australian match winner in Wingard to their list.
It is a risky strategy though. Their KPP players are one of the worst in the league, the new anti-congestion rules may enable that to be exploited. They need to win a flag in the next 4 years I feel because they are effectively pushing their problems down the line and the drop they suffer will be likely more significant because of it, the kind of drop that could take years and years to recover from. These aren’t McEvoy and Gunston trades they are doing, they are legitimately trying to trade in a new premiership core and it is expensive.
We're on our third rebuild since 2007. The first two were horrendously botched.
That's what happens when those in charge of your club keep choosing choir boys, as we did.
Btw, I'm not suggesting you always have to have top 10 draft picks. That makes no sense.
But for example, our first pick this year was 36. By the end of trade week we had 23 and 28. That's using trade week to improve your hand at the draft. I expect two good players for those picks. No guarantee, but these days we draft pretty well. Spargo was 29 last year and Fritsch 31.
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True, but not to the extent people think. We buggered up so many of our early picks we had to rely heavily on nailing later picks. The 2015 flag team only had 3 top 10 picks we acquired via the draft. Roughy, Hodge and Lewis. Those three were very important , but the question being asked in this thread is can that quality be accessed by trading instead of drafting. Just because past premiership teams have had a drafted elite core doesn't mean that core can't be traded in. Free agency, or early moves by contracted players about to come into FA or RFA is making that easier than it ever has been.
It is unclear if we'll continue to have enough trade material to finish the buy-up to premiership level before the next rung of players doing the heavy lifting retires (which are largely NOT the 30+ year olds people have pointed at, but rather the 26-29 year olds). As previously mentioned, I've seen enough Hawthorn flags that I'm not desperate enough to see my team languish at the bottom of the ladder for many years in the hope we can eventually build a flag list via the draft. Right now Melbourne is looking more like the exception than the rule, and it took them more than one go at it and they still have no flag to show. I'm sure I'd have a different opinion if my club had gone as long as Melbourne has since their last flag, and my pain threshold for putting up with multiple wallowing-in-shit rebuilds is probably going to be much higher in that situation.
I think we'll see more of the clubs that finish high up, but slightly off the pace trying to maintain their run for as long as possible because of the self perpetuating nature of finishing within striking distance of a flag in the free agency environment. It is not easy to get top level players traded in on reasonable coin while sitting at the bottom. Despite the increasing raft of equalisation policies, free agency stands out as a very strong counter-incentive for a bottom out rebuild. Melbourne have probably come good just at the right time. I wouldn't want to be bottom 4 right now, just starting my run, because if I haven't already got my rebuild right and need to fill holes to launch into the top 8, it isn't going to be that easy with all the top 8 clubs fighting for trade scraps, and having more compelling arguments to lure players in. Carlton might be ok, I'm not sure they have many holes that can't be filled with patience in the players they've already picked up, and the list is probably good enough now that they can get into the 'destination club' zone by just waiting. Again, it took them multiple goes at it to arrive at this point though.
Really interesting question
They are doing a very good job to stay afloat at the moment, and if anyone can pinch a flag with the list they have it's Clarko. However my feeling is that it's going to eventually bite them and they won't add to their recent threepeat.
They currently have a very good core group, a few veterans that are falling off a cliff, and a bunch of honest triers. It the latter two groups that are there problem. I don't think their bottom 8 players are good enough to win a flag, and they have no depth in the event of injury (who does?).
Bringing in 1-2 free agents/trades each year simply isn't going to be enough to get them back to the top, and ultimately they will run out of salary cap to keep doing it as players continue to demand more $$$$$
They are doing a very good job to stay afloat at the moment, and if anyone can pinch a flag with the list they have it's Clarko. However my feeling is that it's going to eventually bite them and they won't add to their recent threepeat.
They currently have a very good core group, a few veterans that are falling off a cliff, and a bunch of honest triers. It the latter two groups that are there problem. I don't think their bottom 8 players are good enough to win a flag, and they have no depth in the event of injury (who does?).
Bringing in 1-2 free agents/trades each year simply isn't going to be enough to get them back to the top, and ultimately they will run out of salary cap to keep doing it as players continue to demand more $$$$$
- Jul 16, 2013
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So yes your list will be older again is what you are saying?
You can expect all you want but the cold hard facts are that you are extremely unlikely to draft a genuine star with those two picks and about 30% chance of drafting a stock standard best 22 AFL player. Spargo and Fritsch are the exception not the norm - in all likelihood those picks will be a bust.
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It would be close. I forgot about Vickery and Cyril leaving.
- Jul 13, 2015
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We will win another flag before both Melbourne and Carlton.
I'm not fixated on just top 10 draft picks, although I recognise it makes a huge difference if you nail elite talent from the top 10.
But even top 30 draft picks. You've had six since 2008. Smith was a great get for Hawthorn at pick 19. Grundy was a good get at 18 for Collingwood. We got Gawn at 34.
I'm rapt we've got 23 and 28 in this year's draft. Who wants an ageing list to have pick 53 as their first pick ?
It doesn't have to be an either/or approach. Trading should complement your draft strategy, but Hawthorn seem to have completely forsaken it.
Last year you traded 33 for Impey. In 2014 you traded 19 for O'Rourke. When you actually went to the draft in 2015 you picked up Burton and Hardwicke.
I'm certainly not against the trades you did for Mitchell and O'Meara. As I said, it doesn't have to be either/or. If I was a Hawks fan I'd like to see a more balanced approach. I don't like the Wingard trade, but Hawks fans seemingly do. He seems too half-dedicated to me. Last to training, first to leave, known for not doing the extras - according to Port fans and these things come out around clubs. But in the Hawks cultural environment he might shift his focus.
In 2014 we traded pick 23 for Frost, and picks 40 and 42. At the time Jon Ralph said it was a silly trade. Frost filled a need and we picked up Neal-Bullen with pick 40 and Billy Stretch under F?S with pick 42. That was a trade that still used drafting as a strategy. I don't see that at Hawthorn these days.
Bully for you.
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Should I have said that I am as certain as I can be?
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I worry about our future due to how we are ignoring the draft. OP certainly makes some great points.
BUT..
Two things that make me optimistic despite the lack of early picks coming through is 1. Our clear ability to pick diamonds in the rough and develop good players into great players. And 2. The one thing even I keep forgetting, which is that our reserves won the VFL flag and are always strong, highlighting that we do indeed have decent depth. Moore, Cousins, Miles and Hanrahan are 4 names who could quite easily become best 22 senior players in the coming season.
BUT..
Two things that make me optimistic despite the lack of early picks coming through is 1. Our clear ability to pick diamonds in the rough and develop good players into great players. And 2. The one thing even I keep forgetting, which is that our reserves won the VFL flag and are always strong, highlighting that we do indeed have decent depth. Moore, Cousins, Miles and Hanrahan are 4 names who could quite easily become best 22 senior players in the coming season.
It doesn't really work that way.
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