Can Sydney rebound after their GF debacle?

[scaryness]

I see Sydney following a similar path to Collingwood after 2011, Hawthorn absolutely blew them away in the Grand Final, the game was effectively over for us neutrals midway through the first QTR. The Swans like the Pies will suffer scarring and they will struggle in 2015, they will hang around the top 4, but they won't be as good as they were this year and they were humbled in that GF. I now firmly believe that teams who have the tough prelim appear to benefit more from it. I can't see past a Hawks V Port GF in 2015 with the Swans battling out for the remaining top 8 positions.

I still think thats a myth.

2008 - Hawthorn def St Kilda by 54, Geelong def Bulldogs by 29
2009 - Geelong def Collingwood by 73 , St Kilda def Bulldogs by 7
2010 - Collingwood def Geelong by 41, St Kilda def Bulldogs by 24
2011 - Geelong def West Coast by 48, Collingwood def Hawthorn by 3
2012 - Sydney def Collingwood by 26, Hawthorn def Adelaide by 5
2013 - Hawthorn def Geelong by 5, Fremantle def Sydney by 25
2014 - Hawthorn def Port by 3, Sydney def North by 71

The last 2 years it has been true, but for the previous 5 the team with the big prelim win prevailed.

 

[MickyG]

Your points are spot on, the problem is that punters don't understand what the clubs are arguing against in terms of the academy. There are 2 clubs, hawthorn and Collingwood that want the rules changed on academies, media would like us to believe that it's just Eddie whinging but here are the facts: the hawksNs pies now pay an extra tax on earnings to support the comp, they have signed up and agreed for the equalisation of e comp, what they don't like is that they pump money into Sydney which no one doubts that they need being in the market they're in t they put in a huge expense in an academy that no other club is allowed and they feel that there is a disconnect with what their extra 'tax' is for. Basically they're funding a clubs training facility that they aren't allowed to have themselves. As stated they don't want the academy shut, they want the ability to have their own academy and invite players in these non afl areas to join.

There are four Academies. I understand the AFL is putting $250,000pa into each. Someone more knowledgeable than me could tell you how much the AFL put into Victorian junior AR. I'm thinking it's a lot more. The money is not getting pumped into Sydney (the Swans and Giants Academies cover all of NSW) and it is not a huge expense. I think the AFL see it as an investment and after five years we are starting to see the first dividends. For every Heeney and Steele (Giants pick 24) that gets recruited from NSW there is one less being recruited from Vic, SA or WA. That's not enough for Eddy. He wants his own Academy in NSW and I'll take a guess that he'd like the Riverina due to Collingwood's long term connections there (sarcasm if you weren't sure). Lucky it's not in the Swans area! Hope it turns into a huge argument with the Hawks.

 

[Wolfgang West]

I see Sydney following a similar path to Collingwood after 2011, Hawthorn absolutely blew them away in the Grand Final, the game was effectively over for us neutrals midway through the first QTR. The Swans like the Pies will suffer scarring and they will struggle in 2015, they will hang around the top 4, but they won't be as good as they were this year and they were humbled in that GF. I now firmly believe that teams who have the tough prelim appear to benefit more from it. I can't see past a Hawks V Port GF in 2015 with the Swans battling out for the remaining top 8 positions.

Read many of your posts over the journey and the outcome of most of your predictions would deem you a very poor judge, so most Swans fans can rest easy. Btw hanging around the top 4 always says you are a chance unlike the bottom reaches of the eight that some seem to be heading for.

 

[AM]

Don't judge them on one sub par performance albeit in a GF. Judge them on their body of work for the whole season and how deep their list runs. They'll be a serious challenger again.

 

[John Dough]

Hard to recover from a Grand Final spanking when you can't trade to fill holes in your list.

 

[TheKanga]

They will be there abouts but not convinced they will even play in the GF next year.

North vs. Port

 

[Righteo]

Ever since the GF I've been thinking that it wouldn't be appropriate to judge Sydney's 2015 chances too harshly. Sydney were bad no doubt but Hawthorn would have beaten any team (including Port) by 5 or so goals that day they were that good IMHO. After seeing the years Hayden Ballantyne and Nat Fyfe had I also reckon talk of "mental demons" affecting them is bullshit. Most players that have GF scars want to atone for them, not cower away from them.

Not a fan of comparing them to Port 2007 either, they didn't languish at the bottom for the next few years because Geelong smacked them in the granny

Like it really matters though, I reckon the vast majority of people here rate it something like Hawks>Port>Sydney>>>>North and this won't change until round 1 when the fickle masses forget it all and jump on the biggest winner. FWIW I'm probably among them.

I'm not a Sydney fan but they have too much talent and are too well run to not make the four again.

 

[JackFlash]

Read many of your posts over the journey and the outcome of most of your predictions would deem you a very poor judge, so most Swans fans can rest easy. Btw hanging around the top 4 always says you are a chance unlike the bottom reaches of the eight that some seem to be heading for.

Even Collingwood hung around for a couple of years after 2011, the Swans are fried. They were totally humiliated and were not up to scratch when it really counted. Psychologically damaged? you betcha!

 

[SugarCoat]

Biggest area of concern is back line.

 

[stevoswan]

Even Collingwood hung around for a couple of years after 2011, the Swans are fried. They were totally humiliated and were not up to scratch when it really counted. Psychologically damaged? you betcha!

You hope!!

 

[Shinboner99]

I've got a feeling one of Sydney or Hawthorn will drop down a bit this year.
what one I'm not sure

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I've got a feeling one of Sydney or Hawthorn will drop down a bit this year.
what one I'm not sure

Sydney I reckon.

 

[JackFlash]

You hope!!

The Swans are done and dusted before the season begins...

 

[Footy 1st]

The fact this thread is still running...Swans still in the hunt.. Otherwise are Adelaide or West Coast able to rebound from missing the finals? Can North rebound from relying on a 40 yr old angry elf? Who cares..

 

[Hawkk]

I've got a feeling one of Sydney or Hawthorn will drop down a bit this year.
what one I'm not sure

My money is on North or Sydney

Since 1999, 14 clubs have been eliminated from the finals with a 10 goal loss

'99 - QF Ess def Swans by 69 points (Swans finished 10th in 2000)
'00 - SF Carl def BL by 84 points (Lions finished 1st in 2001), GF Ess def Melb by 60 points (Melb finished 11th in 2001)
'01 - EF Carl def Adel by 70 points (Adelaide finished 4th in 2002), PF BL def Rich by 68 points (Rich finished 14th in 2002)
'05 - EF PA def NM by 87 points (NM finished 14th in 2006), SF Adel def PA by 83 points (PA finished 12th in 2006)
'06 - SF WCE def WB by 74 points (WB finished 13th in 2007)
'07 - PF PA def NM by 87 points (NM finished 7th in 2008), GF Geel def PA by 119 points (PA finished 13th in 2008)
'09 - Geel def Coll by 73 points (Coll finished 1st in 2010)
'10 - SF Geel def Frem by 69 points (Fremantle finished 11th in 2011)
'11 - EF Carl def Ess by 62 points (Ess finished 11th in 2012)
'12 - EF WC def NM by 95 points (NM finished 10th in 2013)
'14 - PF Syd def NM by 71 points (NM position in 2014 TBC), GF Haw def Syd by 63 points (Syd position in 2014 TBC)

Since 1999, sides that have been belted in knockout finals have:

Won flags - 2 (BL in 2001, Coll in 2010)
Qualified for Finals - 2
Missed out on Finals qualification - 10

Every season at least one qualifying final side drops off in the next season, if history is any indication it will certainly be one of these two

 

[Hawkk]

Another interesting stat is how the GF'ists have dealt with GF beltings (50 points or more) in the seasons after the GF. Since 1980...

1980 - Rich def Coll by 81 points (Rich missed the finals, Coll made GF)
1983 - Haw def Ess by 83 points (Haw and Ess both made GF's, Ess won flag)
1985 - Ess def Haw by 78 points (Haw won flag, Ess missed finals)
1988 - Haw def Melb by 96 points (Haw won flag, Melb made SF's)
1991 - Haw def WCE by 53 points (WCE won flag, Haw finished in EF)
1994 - WCE def Geel by 80 points (Geel make GF, WCE finished in SF)
1995 - Carl def Geel by 61 points (Carl make SF, Geel make EF)
2000 - Ess def Melb by 60 points (Ess made GF, Melb missed finals)
2003 - BL def Coll by 51 points (BL made the GF, Coll missed the finals)
2007 - Geel def PA by 119 points (Geel made the GF, PA missed the finals)
2010 reply - Coll def StK by 54 points (Coll made the GF, StK finished in the EF)
2014 - Haw def Swans by 63 points

Since 1980, the victors followed up with:

Flags - 1
GF's - 7
SF's - 2
EF's - 1
Missed Finals - 2

The losers...

Flags - 3
GF's - 5
SF's - 1
EF's - 2
Missed Finals - 4

Since 2000 there have been 5 GF's decided by 50 or more points, of the 4 before 2014 the winner made the GF in each season following the GF belting (losing all 4) whilst the loser missed the finals in 3 of the 4 seasons

By comparison, before 2000 the loser typically fared far better in the season after the GF belting...winning the flag in 3/10 seasons, backing up and making the following GF in 5 of the 10 seasons

 

[cryptor]

Another interesting stat is how the GF'ists have dealt with GF beltings (50 points or more) in the seasons after the GF. Since 1980...

1980 - Rich def Coll by 81 points (Rich missed the finals, Coll made GF)
1983 - Haw def Ess by 83 points (Haw and Ess both made GF's, Ess won flag)
1985 - Ess def Haw by 78 points (Haw won flag, Ess missed finals)
1988 - Haw def Melb by 96 points (Haw won flag, Melb made SF's)
1991 - Haw def WCE by 53 points (WCE won flag, Haw finished in EF)
1994 - WCE def Geel by 80 points (Geel make GF, WCE finished in SF)
1995 - Carl def Geel by 61 points (Carl make SF, Geel make EF)
2000 - Ess def Melb by 60 points (Ess made GF, Melb missed finals)
2003 - BL def Coll by 51 points (BL made the GF, Coll missed the finals)
2007 - Geel def PA by 119 points (Geel made the GF, PA missed the finals)
2010 reply - Coll def StK by 54 points (Coll made the GF, StK finished in the EF)
2014 - Haw def Swans by 63 points

Since 1980, the victors followed up with:

Flags - 1
GF's - 7
SF's - 2
EF's - 1
Missed Finals - 2

The losers...

Flags - 3
GF's - 5
SF's - 1
EF's - 2
Missed Finals - 4

Since 2000 there have been 5 GF's decided by 50 or more points, of the 4 before 2014 the winner made the GF in each season following the GF belting (losing all 4) whilst the loser missed the finals in 3 of the 4 seasons

By comparison, before 2000 the loser typically fared far better in the season after the GF belting...winning the flag in 3/10 seasons, backing up and making the following GF in 5 of the 10 seasons

Honestly looks pretty random to me. Hawthorn aside, Sydney getting belted in the GF had a lot to do with their midfield not being up for it on that day. For whatever reason that might've been there are still plenty of young talented players and slightly older guys in their primes that usually play a lot better than that. They might lose a bit from older guys like Goodes and Richards but the rest of the team should get back to good form.

I would not be surprised either way now if they bounced back and won the flag or failed to make finals at all. I am leaning towards a top 4 finish with at least a PF showing.

 

[Hawkk]

Honestly looks pretty random to me. Hawthorn aside, Sydney getting belted in the GF had a lot to do with their midfield not being up for it on that day. For whatever reason that might've been there are still plenty of young talented players and slightly older guys in their primes that usually play a lot better than that. They might lose a bit from older guys like Goodes and Richards but the rest of the team should get back to good form.

I would not be surprised either way now if they bounced back and won the flag or failed to make finals at all. I am leaning towards a top 4 finish with at least a PF showing.

Since 2000 it has been anything but

There have been 5 GF's decided by 50 or more points. Of those:

The winner has qualified for the GF (and lost) in each of the 4 following seasons

The lower has finished 11th, 14th, 13th and 7th in the seasons following.

Make of those what you will

 

[cryptor]

Since 2000 it has been anything but

There have been 5 GF's decided by 50 or more points. Of those:

The winner has qualified for the GF (and lost) in each of the 4 following seasons

The lower has finished 11th, 14th, 13th and 7th in the seasons following.

Make of those what you will

There are series of digits that repeat numerous times in the decimal approximation of pi. Taken in isolation it looks like a pattern is forming when in reality human brains are always trying to find order in chaos. If it was the end of 1988 and you looked at the stats for the previous 3 occasions you'd have to say Melbourne were a shoe in for a flag in 1989.

There's clearly a lot more determinable variables that go into predicting the fortunes of a football side. How they finish off their previous season is just one of them. It's intuitive to think that if a team gets belted in a GF that they'll carry that poor form into the following season. I see no issue with that reasoning.

Though you do need to consider that there are other variables that lead to teams being belted in GFs and whether or not they've bounced back the following season...
- injuries (stars missing or hampered?)
- age of star players (maybe the end came at the wrong time)
- mental fortitude of players (can they all handle the big stage? can they recover?)
- their lead-in to the GF (too tough? too soft?)

A few of the older guys misfired on the day and who knows if they've got enough for another whole season. Some of the younger guys who were stars or at least showed star like qualities throughout the year seemed to be overwhelmed by the occasion. Whether or not they bounce back will probably determine whether Sydney as a team bounces back or not. There's of course also that theory that Sydney's softer run into and during the finals didn't prepare them well enough for a hotly contested GF with an experienced side. I'm going to go with the kids thing though now. The leaders at Sydney will need to get around them and prevent them from withdrawing into their shells.

 

[Leg End]

There are series of digits that repeat numerous times in the decimal approximation of pi. Taken in isolation it looks like a pattern is forming when in reality human brains are always trying to find order in chaos. If it was the end of 1988 and you looked at the stats for the previous 3 occasions you'd have to say Melbourne were a shoe in for a flag in 1989.

There's clearly a lot more determinable variables that go into predicting the fortunes of a football side. How they finish off their previous season is just one of them. It's intuitive to think that if a team gets belted in a GF that they'll carry that poor form into the following season. I see no issue with that reasoning.

Though you do need to consider that there are other variables that lead to teams being belted in GFs and whether or not they've bounced back the following season...
- injuries (stars missing or hampered?)
- age of star players (maybe the end came at the wrong time)
- mental fortitude of players (can they all handle the big stage? can they recover?)
- their lead-in to the GF (too tough? too soft?)

A few of the older guys misfired on the day and who knows if they've got enough for another whole season. Some of the younger guys who were stars or at least showed star like qualities throughout the year seemed to be overwhelmed by the occasion. Whether or not they bounce back will probably determine whether Sydney as a team bounces back or not. There's of course also that theory that Sydney's softer run into and during the finals didn't prepare them well enough for a hotly contested GF with an experienced side. I'm going to go with the kids thing though now. The leaders at Sydney will need to get around them and prevent them from withdrawing into their shells.

I still feel Sydney believed their own press somewhat and expected to just turn up to get their medals. This plus Hawks turned on a huge game was all she wrote. I have no doubt that next year, Sydney will have that added advantage that Hawthorn had - revenge for 2012. Swans v Hawks or Port in GF.

What will be more interesting is how North cope with their absolute drubbing in the PF.

 

[cryptor]

I still feel Sydney believed their own press somewhat and expected to just turn up to get their medals. This plus Hawks turned on a huge game was all she wrote. I have no doubt that next year, Sydney will have that added advantage that Hawthorn had - revenge for 2012. Swans v Hawks or Port in GF.

What will be more interesting is how North cope with their absolute drubbing in the PF.

I agree. The motivation of the pain of losing now sits in Sydney's favour and could be the difference when the two teams meet in 2015. Will be interesting to see if North carry the same feeling against the Swans. Possibly eliminating Sydney from the finals for Hawthorn.

 

[Docker Alyssa]

Gonna be tough.... The longer this off season goes the more stark that loss feels and the more irrelevent they seem.

Almost like Port Adelaide 2007. Smashed, and then what happens next?

 

[Leg End]

Gonna be tough.... The longer this off season goes the more stark that loss feels and the more irrelevent they seem.

Almost like Port Adelaide 2007. Smashed, and then what happens next?

Nope.
Not this team.
GF was massive lesson. They will never go into a game again with any feeling of complacency.
I also think a particular rivalry with Hawks v Swans Is building further and may have several years where each context will be fantastic.

 

[MagpieJo]

I see Sydney following a similar path to Collingwood after 2011, Hawthorn absolutely blew them away in the Grand Final, the game was effectively over for us neutrals midway through the first QTR. The Swans like the Pies will suffer scarring and they will struggle in 2015, they will hang around the top 4, but they won't be as good as they were this year and they were humbled in that GF. I now firmly believe that teams who have the tough prelim appear to benefit more from it. I can't see past a Hawks V Port GF in 2015 with the Swans battling out for the remaining top 8 positions.

Um, you didn't blow us away in the grand final of 2011. This years was over at 1/4 time, in 2011 at 3/4 time it was anyone's game, even the cats fans around us said the same thing. Unfortunately we blinked. TBH. I was surprised we were there, we should have lost to Hawthorn the week before. And the next year wasn't scarring, it was a game plan that everyone else had caught onto, and a shimozzle of a coach changeover., and players who's careers were over, some with age, some with wear and tear said game plan caused. And far from being humbled, we did bloody well to be there considering.

Back to the topic, the Hawks would have blown anyone out the water on grand final day. Nothing to do with sydney not showing up, unlike Freo last year. Swans will go down because of ageing talent they are hanging onto because they can't trade for more superstars, due to the totally unbiased AFL cracking the shits because with all their efforts, Sydney didn't follow the plan -ie, win!

If hawthorn hang onto that form, God help us all. Luckily he's a fickle bugger. The Hawks were fricken awesome that one day in September, end of story.

Best ever? Well not for mine, the best ever would be two champion teams playing at the top of their game, with no shit umpiring decisions to change the outcome, fighting til the last gasp. And Sydney didn't come close to it.

 

[Leg End]

Um, you didn't blow us away in the grand final of 2011. This years was over at 1/4 time, in 2011 at 3/4 time it was anyone's game, even the cats fans around us said the same thing. Unfortunately we blinked. TBH. I was surprised we were there, we should have lost to Hawthorn the week before. And the next year wasn't scarring, it was a game plan that everyone else had caught onto, and a shimozzle of a coach changeover., and players who's careers were over, some with age, some with wear and tear said game plan caused. And far from being humbled, we did bloody well to be there considering.

Back to the topic, the Hawks would have blown anyone out the water on grand final day. Nothing to do with sydney not showing up, unlike Freo last year. Swans will go down because of ageing talent they are hanging onto because they can't trade for more superstars, due to the totally unbiased AFL cracking the shits because with all their efforts, Sydney didn't follow the plan -ie, win!

If hawthorn hang onto that form, God help us all. Luckily he's a fickle bugger. The Hawks were fricken awesome that one day in September, end of story.

Best ever? Well not for mine, the best ever would be two champion teams playing at the top of their game, with no shit umpiring decisions to change the outcome, fighting til the last gasp. And Sydney didn't come close to it.

Trade for more superstars?
Classic example of Melbourne- based inbred ignorance.
We got Buddy on a smart deal that Hawks didn't want to match.
We lost a lot of players to make this happen.
Tippett was a "spud" to 95% of fans - until he joined Sydney, suddenly he's a superstar.

So, 1 superstar and suddenly you tag us as trading for superstars.

Meanwhile your Fat Eddie tries to control the AFL to suit his own ego and Collingwood.

You're just a typical blowhard VFL moron who has an anti- Sydney prejudice. But, more importantly, AFL is going down a very dangerous path.