Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[peetoo]

Here’s 2023 after 14 games each and the final ladder. 3 in 3 out of the eight, but two of the three in were sitting 14th and 15th. Both made prelims

From the bottom,
carlton who’d beaten noone of note for 20 rounds went WWWWWWWWL - TO GWS previous was 2W7L
GWS went WWWWWLLWW PREVIOUS 3W6L
Sydney went DLWWWWWWL PREVIOUS 3W6L
Richmond went LWWWLLLW PREVIOUS 5W4L
Freo went LLLLWLWLW PREVIOUS 5W4L
GC WENT LLWLWLLLL PREVIOUS 6W3L
GEEL WENT DWWLLWLLL PREVIOUS 5W4L
ADEL WENT WLLLWWLLW PREVIOUS 4W5L
WB WENT WLLWLWLLW PREVIOUS 6W3L
ESS WENT LWLLLWWLL PREVIOUS 4W5L
StK WENT WLLWWLWWL PREVIOUS 4W5L

FOR THE RECORD HAWKS FINISHED 3W6L IN The last 9 ROUNDS 2023

Of the 11 teams above, only carlton GWS Sydney went better than our anticipated target of 6W3L. And none had 7W2L in the previous 9. Only 2 of the 11 had 6W in the previous 9 games
Of the other 8, only StK went better than 4


View attachment 2027687View attachment 2027688

Short answer. Three teams not in the eight 2023 (in fact one with only 5 1/2 wins )went 6W from 9 or better, Therefore making the eight, but none had come off 7W from 9 like hawks had in the previous rounds

As we sit we don’t have a 30 Goal forward like Charlie Kernow (Chol 16) but we have a wider spread of goal kickers

Realistically, don’t drop more than 2 in the next six, then it may be clear if 2 or 3 wins required form the last 3

 

[Walshawk]

To make the 8 we have to beat the other teams competing for those spots. That is Geelong and Freo. Win those and we can drop two, maybe three others.

 

[peetoo]

To make the 8 we have to beat the other teams competing for those spots. That is Geelong and Freo. Win those and we can drop two, maybe three others.

GWS too. Now with squiggle prediction. 14 wins is top 4



Let’s look at predictions compared to last 9
Carlton. Last 6W3L predict 6w
Frem. Last 5W1D3l predict 5w
Bris Last 5w1d3l predict 6w
Coll. Last 6w2d1l predict 5w
Ess. Last 6w1d2l predict 4w
Wb. Last 5w4l predict 6w
Geel. Last 3w6l predict 5w
—————————-
GWS. Last. 3w6l predict 4w
Mel. Last 4w5l predict 4w
PTA. Last. 4w5l predict 4w
GCS. Last. 4w5l predict 5w
Haw. Last. 7w2l predict 4w

Going better than most three of our seven wins were against these teams.
Our upcoming is 5 from among these teams, 4 from the bottom
We travel quite a bit, but the only non home advantage in this list is Geelong. GWS in canberra

If we win next 2. It’s definitely a live prospect

If the eleven teams who moved on the ladder last year. Half (5) didnt chandelier more tha the 9 rounds before r14 to after
Biggest movers were carlton 6 wins better GWS 4 wins better sydney 3.5 wins better freo 2 wins worse Gold Coast 4 wins worse

 

[Billyc]

To make the 8 we have to beat the other teams competing for those spots. That is Geelong and Freo. Win those and we can drop two, maybe three others.

Yes we play all the bottom 4 sides and then three sides who are in the same boat in competing for those spots. They will be mini finals. If we are good enough and deserve to play finals we will make it.

My hope is an elimination final against Essendon

 

[peetoo]

Yes we play all the bottom 4 sides and then three sides who are in the same boat in competing for those spots. They will be mini finals. If we are good enough and deserve to play finals we will make it.

My hope is an elimination final against Essendon

Or overtake them and they travel week 1 of finals

 

[FisherHawk]

If we drop the Blues and GWS games only, we can be in at 6th on 14 wins. That's ahead of Lions Cats and Dockers. If we lose another, my squiggle has us in 9th.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

I expect to drop more than we win coming home but it's good to be talking about the F word again

 

[Since 2001]

I think we just miss out on finals. Finish 10th, 2 games out of the finals.

2025 we got for it throw big up front money at smith and Battle, make finals. Then 2026 we can throw a big lump sum at ldu and re-sign worpel.

Hopefully by then, lewis is playing full seasons, calsher has kept improving, ward/mckenzie/wizard/cmac are cemented in the team, taken the next steps and no looking back.

2026 for hawthorn is when the era starts

 

[threesixpio]

Round 8-15 ladder: Hawks, Lions surge into top four

Riley Beveridge takes a look at how the unpredictable 2024 season has changed since round eight

www.afl.com.au

 

[threesixpio]

This is a good year, even if we don’t make finals. We are setting up so well for future years. God I love the Hawks

 

[threesixpio]

LADDER FROM RD 8 – RD 15​

1. Sydney
2. Hawthorn
3. Brisbane
4. Collingwood
5. Carlton
6. Essendon
7. Fremantle
8. Western Bulldogs

 

[threesixpio]

Tanking and D+ etc. get farked pundits

 

[Roddy]

Definitely getting 2006 Hawks vibes from the 2024 Hawks.

We're going to win more games than that side did though....

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I think we just miss out on finals. Finish 10th, 2 games out of the finals.

2025 we got for it throw big up front money at smith and Battle, make finals. Then 2026 we can throw a big lump sum at ldu and re-sign worpel.

Hopefully by then, lewis is playing full seasons, calsher has kept improving, ward/mckenzie/wizard/cmac are cemented in the team, taken the next steps and no looking back.

2026 for hawthorn is when the era starts

Your time is off by 12 months.

Battle and Smith are moving this year.

 

[Kanga Commando]

The Run Home after Round 15: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

Why remarkable top-four surge looms; finals dreams that sit on knife’s edge: AFL Run Home

www.foxsports.com.au

These guys have us finishing 13th

Their claim is that we have to keep performing at this current level for most of the year, and can really only afford to drop 2 games - a bridge too far for us ( in their opinion ).

That's a reasonable assessment, but we have to maintain the rage.

 

[TylerDurden]

The Run Home after Round 15: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

Why remarkable top-four surge looms; finals dreams that sit on knife’s edge: AFL Run Home

www.foxsports.com.au

These guys have us finishing 13th

Their claim is that we have to keep performing at this current level for most of the year, and can really only afford to drop 2 games - a bridge too far for us ( in their opinion ).

That's a reasonable assessment, but we have to maintain the rage.

Win the next 2 and we are game on.

With the carrot there, this team will lift levels. Plus we have a soft run home in the last 2 games.

 

[Kanga Commando]

Win the next 2 and we are game on.

With the carrot there, this team will lift levels. Plus we have a soft run home in the last 2 games.

It will be interesting to see how they do respond to this challenge.

I'm mostly optimistic, but this is too hard to predict for me.

 

[Philhawk]

Have to win the next 3. Drop against Geelong and it’s tough. Drop against either WC or Freo and we don’t deserve to plays finals, tbh.

 

[eldorado]

If we win the next two, I reckon our odds of finals go to 60/40...

 

[TylerDurden]

If we win the next two, I reckon our odds of finals go to 60/40...

Correct. We'll beat Freo in Tassie, then we need to win one of:
Pies
GWS in Canberra
Blues.

Those games will be box office viewing.

 

[hawkman]

The Run Home after Round 15: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

Why remarkable top-four surge looms; finals dreams that sit on knife’s edge: AFL Run Home

www.foxsports.com.au

These guys have us finishing 13th

Their claim is that we have to keep performing at this current level for most of the year, and can really only afford to drop 2 games - a bridge too far for us ( in their opinion ).

That's a reasonable assessment, but we have to maintain the rage.

That is based on probability of winning each game. If you get a lot 50/50 or 60/40 games which a lot of our games are it is hard to predict a climb on that ladder.

 

[grumbleguts]

I honestly think that 13 games should be enough. We have a couple of “8” point games against Geelong, Fremantle and GWS. They are the games that we should be trying to win.

The games against West Coast, Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, Adelaide, GWS, Carlton, Richmond, North are the ones that we should be trying to win.

 

[grumbleguts]

That is based on probability of winning each game. If you get a lot 50/50 or 60/40 games which a lot of our games are it is hard to predict a climb on that ladder.

And those probabilities take the first 5 rounds into account, but Hawthorn is a very different side to that team.

 

[peetoo]

The Run Home after Round 15: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

Why remarkable top-four surge looms; finals dreams that sit on knife’s edge: AFL Run Home

www.foxsports.com.au

These guys have us finishing 13th

Their claim is that we have to keep performing at this current level for most of the year, and can really only afford to drop 2 games - a bridge too far for us ( in their opinion ).

That's a reasonable assessment, but we have to maintain the rage.

Gws Sydney and carlton were performing worse than us right now at the 14 game mark with less wins, but outperformed most teams and got into the eight in 2023

If we get to 7 games to go only needing 5 from 7 and we had won 6 of thr preceding 7, and only lost the other by a kick 20s from the end watch out

I can agree with pundits saying 6 wins from 9 might not be enough, but those saying we might only win 4 is miserable.

 

[mustang]

Correct. We'll beat Freo in Tassie, then we need to win one of:
Pies
GWS in Canberra
Blues.

Those games will be box office viewing.

I feel we need a statement game that no one expects as to win on the way home, winning when we should win is great but if we can knock of Blues everyone will really start talking about us.

We have a good record v’s the Pies, and we have only played at Manuka Oval once haven’t we isn’t that the snow game.