Carlton 2024 - Are they being overestimated?

Are the expectations on the 2024 Blues being overestated?

  • Yes

    Votes: 89 70.6%

  • No

    Votes: 37 29.4%
  • Total voters
    126

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I said it even during their run on last season, and it's the same thing now - Carlton simply do not have ANY system or method moving the ball up the ground. Saad gives them slightly something because of the way he's built but other than that there is 0 clue what to do moving the ball through the middle of the ground. Every single time I watch Carlton they just make it up as they go, left, right, up, down sideways, backwards etc. Sometimes they get through, but most times they don't. And when they don't and slap it on the boot to the forwards, Curnow and McKay occasionally make something out of nothing. That's the only thing giving Carlton a shot at winning games. Its the reason they don't dominate, it's also the reason why they win some close games. And it's the reason why they get absolutely belted against teams with a good system.

It's a mixture of two things. First and foremost, the buck stops with the coach - if they can't develop a clear brand then the coach simply doesn't know what or how. Secondly, people talk about their bottom six, I'd say it's more so their bottom 16, are shite. Durdin, Holland's's, owies, fantasia, McGovern and a whole suit of others etc are all front runners. That's why the injury excuse doesn't wash. When your 10 injuries come back, your bottom 6 is still rubbish.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
Docherty wouldn’t be in our top 3 most important outs structure wise. He’s a very good player but not what he once was.

Cerra, Saad, probably Docherty in our best dozen
Motlop, Martin in our best 18
Cottrell, Fogarty more than likely in our best 23
Silvagni, Cuningham 23-30 players/first drop

Not going to argue on their significance to the side and whether we would’ve won or lost games as you have already made up your mind on that. But you clearly don’t have a great understanding of our list.
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You still have no system or method even with those players. Just gives you a few more looks than usual to slap it on the boot to Curnow and Harry.
 
zyzzbruh said:
You still have no system or method even with those players. Just gives you a few more looks than usual to slap it on the boot to Curnow and Harry.
Click to expand...

I said today in the match day thread only Saad of those ins gives us any sort of answer to Sydney’s speed and foot skills.

Two very big weaknesses on our list right now.
 

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Kreuuuzeurns said:
Docherty wouldn’t be in our top 3 most important outs structure wise. He’s a very good player but not what he once was.

Cerra, Saad, probably Docherty in our best dozen
Motlop, Martin in our best 18
Cottrell, Fogarty more than likely in our best 23
Silvagni, Cuningham 23-30 players/first drop

Not going to argue on their significance to the side and whether we would’ve won or lost games as you have already made up your mind on that. But you clearly don’t have a great understanding of our list.
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So Cerra, Saad and Docherty definites, but 6-12 range.

Top 5 are Cripps, Walsh, Curnow, McKay, Wietering,. All playing.

Motlop, Martin, Cottrell, Fogarty in the 13-23 range

doofdoof said:
No real stars missing, Docherty best. Perhaps 3 or 4 best 22 missing. The rest are all interchangeable in their bottom 10 players.
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Pretty sure I nailed it.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
No. There are probably 7 best 22 players missing. Not 3 or 4.

And it’s weird that you don’t rate Saad, Cerra or Docherty.

You can have your opinion on how they effect our side but just make it an informed one.
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Ah, you're fixated on one part of my post ignoring everything else that aligned perfectly with your "informed" view.

In good teams, anyone in the 13-23 range is interchangeable and not guaranteed best 22.

e.g. Collingwood could replace any of our 13-23 players: Checkers, Lipinski, Titch, WHE, Howe, Frampton, McCreery, Schultz, Murphy, Markov with depth players like Noble, Reef McInnes, Macrae, Joe Richards, Harvey Harrison, Sullivan, Ash Johnson, Charlie Dean, Jack Bytel, Jakob Ryan and Kreuger and still expect to win.

The "woe-is-me" cries of look at our injury list are simply an excuse.

It appears the Blues simply don't have any depth.
 
doofdoof said:
Ah, you're fixated on one part of my post ignoring everything else that aligned perfectly with your "informed" view.

In good teams, anyone in the 13-23 range is interchangeable and not guaranteed best 22.

e.g. Collingwood could replace any of our 13-23 players: Checkers, Lipinski, Titch, WHE, Howe, Frampton, McCreery, Schultz, Murphy, Markov with depth players like Noble, Reef McInnes, Macrae, Joe Richards, Harvey Harrison, Sullivan, Ash Johnson, Charlie Dean, Jack Bytel, Jakob Ryan and Kreuger and still expect to win.

The "woe-is-me" cries of look at our injury list are simply an excuse.

It appears the Blues simply don't have any depth.
Click to expand...

Well you haven’t read my posts at all. I haven’t used injury as an excuse. Only correcting the wrong things you’ve said.

Didn’t this Sydney side put the Pies away by 6 goals on your home ground? They are quality and we aren’t going to get near them this season full strength or not.
 
I wasn't "off" Carlton, still not but the tank is draining quickly.

Huge two weeks against teams that are around them at the moment. Win one, if not both and the past ghosts will be forgotten leading into the big one against my mob.

Lose the next two in a row and Adam Saad may be lining up his next trade request at years end
 
GC2015 said:
Have a read of this thread between pages 1-5 in the lead up to the R4 Fremantle game and you'll see some pretty over the top hype comments from Carlton supporters. Some were probably said in jest, but it's obvious that Carlton supporters really believed back then that their team was going to do something special this season (they still might). I found that strange at the time considering they were undefeated going into round 5 last year as well and went on to lose 7 of their following 9 games.

Interestingly, they find themselves in a similar position this year after beating Fremantle in round 4, they've now lost 3 of their last 4 games. It's not a stretch to suggest they could lose their next 2 and they would be 5 losses in their last 6 games. They'd find themselves outside the top 8 if that were to occur and then who knows what happens from there, but they've proven themselves to be quite a streaky team over the last 18 months.

Having said all that, they can stop history from repeating itself if they just beat the Dees tonight.
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What am I missing from the first 5 pages of your linked thread?
I made a couple of comments that were 100% tongue in cheek. Other than that, it was pretty much only Kreuze Missile making outlandish statements and I'm pretty sure he's just leaning into the character of being the overly confident shit-poster who tries to rub oppo supporters the wrong way.
I read all the comments from Blues supporters and everything else was very level headed and probably leaned towards talking us down and rating other teams ahead of us.
 
Im not putting a line through them as the top end talent is as good as anyone. I will however put my hand up and say I was perhaps over estimating them when reading this from Fox Footy with some stats to back it up

Meanwhile the Blues, despite being widely viewed as one of the chief premiership favourites, have a defensive profile that doesn’t currently stack up — ranked 15th in points against — the one area really letting them down.

“Carlton is an interesting one ... only two teams in the last 30 years have made finals being ranked bottom four for points against, yet we’re talking about them being a contender,” Montagna said.

“The thing though is points against from turnover is the massive one — they are No. 1 but No. 17 in scores against from stoppage. It’s a big issue, when they’ve lost they’ve conceded massive scores from stoppage as we saw against the Giants.
Click to expand...

Im not putting a line through a team that has Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay but they are lacking something
 
Yoda_ said:
Im not putting a line through them as the top end talent is as good as anyone. I will however put my hand up and say I was perhaps over estimating them when reading this from Fox Footy with some stats to back it up



Im not putting a line through a team that has Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay but they are lacking something
Click to expand...
It's a fair criticism, but for context, we've played all the top 12 sides (double ups against Cats and GWS, so 12 out of 16 games), with the exception of the Dogs. Have yet to play Hawks, Eagles and Saints. Have 4 games to come against bottom 6 sides.
Had Weitering, Gov, Kemp and Saad miss a combined 12 games. Been missing Doc all year. Moved Williams forward. Cincotta into a tagging role.
Newman and Boyd are the only 2 defenders to have played all 16 games and in their preferred roles. Boyd and Cowan have a combined 49 career games between them.
We've been forced to play Young and Marchbank in 7 games (these two leak goals).

The back 6 has probably been our least consistent area of the field, so I'm not surprised that we've leaked some scores. Having said that, we've only conceded 100+ in four games (Crows scored bang on 100). Swans have done it once (with Freo scoring 99). Freo have done it twice (with Swans scoring 98). Essendon have done it 3 times and have the worst percentage of anyone in the top 12, while sitting 4th.

Also, despite having the 15th worst defence, we have the 3rd best percentage. So I feel points against can be a little misleading, on its own, if a team is capable of piling on the points themselves.

I'd like to think that we will have improved on that by the end of the H&A season.
 

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Yoda_ said:
Im not putting a line through them as the top end talent is as good as anyone. I will however put my hand up and say I was perhaps over estimating them when reading this from Fox Footy with some stats to back it up



Im not putting a line through a team that has Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay but they are lacking something
Click to expand...
Lacking a 2nd true KPD for start, which would also be impacting our points against in addition to the stoppage issues.
 
I think if Carlton had any of the other coaches sitting inside the top 6 (bar maybe Hinkley) they'd be a certainty to win the flag by 5+ goals. Voss is a very simple man yet he might still jag them a premiership
 
StillAtLarge said:
I think if Carlton had any of the other coaches sitting inside the top 6 (bar maybe Hinkley) they'd be a certainty to win the flag by 5+ goals. Voss is a very simple man yet he might still jag them a premiership
Click to expand...

I’m not sure Voss is the greatest tactician in fact Carlton’s change of fortunes last year coincides with moving away from Voss’s original game plan.

That being said everything I’ve heard is the players love him and would run through a brick wall for him which is 90% of the battle. I would say that was the biggest strength of Goodwin, Hardwick and Beveridge as well
 
StillAtLarge said:
I think if Carlton had any of the other coaches sitting inside the top 6 (bar maybe Hinkley) they'd be a certainty to win the flag by 5+ goals. Voss is a very simple man yet he might still jag them a premiership
Click to expand...
Not saying that Voss isn't a simple man, as he does come across as one a bit... But when you look at our list he's basically built a perfect game plan around what we've got on the list. We have one of the less skilled lists in terms of footskills and lack leg speed, however we have fantastic contested players who are tough and capable of bashing up other sides similar to how Vossy used to play. In a side that only has a few 'elite' kicks in it, for us to be number 1 for scores from turnovers this season, says a bit about the quality coaching of said team.

If we had a couple of Bailey Dales, Errol Guldens etc I think we'd look a dramatically different side. For better or for worse though all our cash is tied up in players like Cripps, Curnow, Mckay, Walsh, Cerra, Hewett, Kennedy, Weitering, Newman, Saad etc who, while good players for sure, are just very different players to those that the Swans possess.

Personally I think it would be impossible to craft a game plan that looks as clean and efficient as a team like the Swans or 2023 Pies with the list that we've got.
 
Yoda_ said:
Im not putting a line through them as the top end talent is as good as anyone. I will however put my hand up and say I was perhaps over estimating them when reading this from Fox Footy with some stats to back it up



Im not putting a line through a team that has Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay but they are lacking something
Click to expand...

What team doesn't lack something? I think we lack another reliable KPD, however:

Pies won a flag with Frampton playing in a KP spot.
Richmond lost Rance and won 2 flags.

Has there ever been a team that has zero weaknesses? Hawthorn's 3-peat would come close, that's all I can think of. It's nigh on impossible to build a list and keep it without weaknesses.
 
StillAtLarge said:
I think if Carlton had any of the other coaches sitting inside the top 6 (bar maybe Hinkley) they'd be a certainty to win the flag by 5+ goals. Voss is a very simple man yet he might still jag them a premiership
Click to expand...

Flags are bloody hard to win. The best you can do is shoot for top 4 during H&A and from there anything can happen - as it's usually close at the top.

I doubt many other coaches would have us above 2nd.
 
Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods said:
What am I missing from the first 5 pages of your linked thread?
I made a couple of comments that were 100% tongue in cheek. Other than that, it was pretty much only Kreuze Missile making outlandish statements and I'm pretty sure he's just leaning into the character of being the overly confident shit-poster who tries to rub oppo supporters the wrong way.
I read all the comments from Blues supporters and everything else was very level headed and probably leaned towards talking us down and rating other teams ahead of us.
Click to expand...
Wow. Quoting a post from early May in mid-July when this thread hasn't been touched since mid-May and even admitting that there were over the top comments present in the other thread (but it was either a joke or a gimmick, bro). Blues fans are a rare breed.
 
Blues need to make a few balance based list moves in the off season. The big lumbering brutes strategy works in many cases, but when teams can get the ball to the outside in their speedy players hands we get torched time and time again.

Hard to say whether that will be our Achilles heel this year, but it's certainly a weakness.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Blues need to make a few balance based list moves in the off season. The big lumbering brutes strategy works in many cases, but when teams can get the ball to the outside in their speedy players hands we get torched time and time again.

Hard to say whether that will be our Achilles heel this year, but it's certainly a weakness.
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Might want to actually play one of them (Hewett) seeing as absolute clearance dominance seems to be the only way we can get it done with any consistency, no plan B currently.

But yep, in all our losses this year we've looked slow, slow, slow (coz we are lol)
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Not saying that Voss isn't a simple man, as he does come across as one a bit... But when you look at our list he's basically built a perfect game plan around what we've got on the list. We have one of the less skilled lists in terms of footskills and lack leg speed, however we have fantastic contested players who are tough and capable of bashing up other sides similar to how Vossy used to play. In a side that only has a few 'elite' kicks in it, for us to be number 1 for scores from turnovers this season, says a bit about the quality coaching of said team.

If we had a couple of Bailey Dales, Errol Guldens etc I think we'd look a dramatically different side. For better or for worse though all our cash is tied up in players like Cripps, Curnow, Mckay, Walsh, Cerra, Hewett, Kennedy, Weitering, Newman, Saad etc who, while good players for sure, are just very different players to those that the Swans possess.

Personally I think it would be impossible to craft a game plan that looks as clean and efficient as a team like the Swans or 2023 Pies with the list that we've got.
Click to expand...
Probably the first Carlton supporter I've seen openly admit that their game plan is not sufficient (although probably most efficient for the squad at hand).

Astounding the amount of others who genuinely have confident optimism over the Blues current system/method, despite having absolutely 0 system or method. When I watch the blues it's just pure randomness as to what happens when moving between the arcs followed by a bomb into 50.

Then you've got a bunch of confidence players like your Owies, durdins, Holland's, Cottrell etc. Maybe you can afford one or two, but when your list is stacked with em there is absolutely no chance of a premiership. Confidence wavers which is why there has been such a gulf between Carlton's best and worst + massive swings in games.
 
zyzzbruh said:
Probably the first Carlton supporter I've seen openly admit that their game plan is not sufficient (although probably most efficient for the squad at hand).

Astounding the amount of others who genuinely have confident optimism over the Blues current system/method, despite having absolutely 0 system or method. When I watch the blues it's just pure randomness as to what happens when moving between the arcs followed by a bomb into 50.

Then you've got a bunch of confidence players like your Owies, durdins, Holland's, Cottrell etc. Maybe you can afford one or two, but when your list is stacked with em there is absolutely no chance of a premiership. Confidence wavers which is why there has been such a gulf between Carlton's best and worst + massive swings in games.
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Mmm it's a bit of a reach to say we don't have a system... We just play a different way to most of the other contenders this year.

I think it's a system more reliant on individual talent than others, but that's how our list is built so that's what we're forced to work with.

Carlton have a very straight forward game plan, try to get the ball in the hand of our best users in Saad, Newman, Elijah Hollands, Cerra etc who can penetrate the corridor and change angles, if they aren't open then we more often than not kick it down the line to Curnow, Dekoning and Mckay who will be surrounded by crumbing mids and half forwards out on the wings. This is because we only have a select number of 'good' kicks in the team capable of hitting those targets where as a team like the Swans have far more consistent foot skills across the park which allows them to slice through opposition teams even when certain players are well held. It also helps that Curnow, Mckay and Dekoning are excellent at bringing the ball to ground so it's a perfectly viable option for us.

Our defense has been leaky regarding stoppage and centre clearances but we're still the number 1 defense of turnover in the competition according to CD and the 2nd best score from turnover team in the comp too.

You don't get that return re turnovers unless you've got a fairly good system or at least something that works most of the time, it's just not as pretty or consistent as others.
 

Carlton 2024 - Are they being overestimated?

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