Carlton are the one to watch out for - They can win The Premiership

[Beerfish]

They'll bounce back. This is the loss they had to have. They're the real deal.

 

[Beerfish]

Right?????

 

[kreuze_missile]

They'll bounce back. This is the loss they had to have. They're the real deal.

How many more losses do we have to have?

 

[100action]

is the greatest vbulletin forum emoticon of all time

this needs to be brought back

Chief pls add this to the emoticon pack:

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[Chief]

It never went.

 

[Beerfish]

 

[NetworkNerd]

Still second. Don't play anyone in the 8 for the rest of the season.

Still top 4 certainties

 

[Do the Dew]

Only way they'll win the flag is if Curnow keeps getting absolutely gifted goals from the umps. Guy is the most protected player in the AFL.

 

[Thrawn]

Only way they'll win the flag is if Curnow keeps getting absolutely gifted goals from the umps. Guy is the most protected player in the AFL.

So why have other forwards received more free kicks than him if that's the case?

Anyone who says this is an idiot.

 

[Do the Dew]

So why have other forwards received more free kicks than him if that's the case?

Anyone who says this is an idiot.

In the past 3 seasons Curnow has averaged 1.4 frees for (FF) and 0.7 frees against (FA) per game.

In a similar time period for the other main big key forwards in the league:

Harry McKay: 1.6 FF and 1.0 FA
Max King: 1.4 FF and 1.1 FA.
Nick Larkey: 1.3 FF and 0.7 FA
Ben King: 1.1 FF and 0.7 FA
Joe Daniher: 1.0 FF and 1.2 FA
Taylor Walker: 1.0 FF and 1.2 FA
Jesse Hogan: 0.9 FF and 0.5 FA
Jeremy Cameron: 0.9 FF and 1.1 FA
Tom Hawkins: 0.5 FF and 0.8 FA
Jack Riewoldt: 0.7 FF and 1.0 FA

So I was wrong, it's actually McKay that gets looked after the most although he does give away more frees than Curnow.

All the other key forwards have reasonably similar FF and FA, apart from some serial stagers like the Kings and Larkey.

That means there's a couple of potential things going on. Curnow/McKay both play for frees or defenders just decide to be undisciplined against them and then turn disciplined again the next week. I know which scenario I think is going on...

From the game against Port last night, that first Curnow blocking free was a disgrace, and in the second high free there was very little contact.

I did an analysis of season 2021 regarding goals kicked directly from frees. Carlton were way out in front with about 24% of their goals coming from frees, Curnow and McKay being the main recipients.

It makes me laugh when I hear Carlton fans booing the umps when their forwards get an absolute armchair ride week after week for years.

So nah, not idiotic at all.

 

[Thrawn]

In the past 3 seasons Curnow has averaged 1.4 frees for (FF) and 0.7 frees against (FA) per game.

In a similar time period for the other main big key forwards in the league:

Harry McKay: 1.6 FF and 1.0 FA
Max King: 1.4 FF and 1.1 FA.
Nick Larkey: 1.3 FF and 0.7 FA
Ben King: 1.1 FF and 0.7 FA
Joe Daniher: 1.0 FF and 1.2 FA
Taylor Walker: 1.0 FF and 1.2 FA
Jesse Hogan: 0.9 FF and 0.5 FA
Jeremy Cameron: 0.9 FF and 1.1 FA
Tom Hawkins: 0.5 FF and 0.8 FA
Jack Riewoldt: 0.7 FF and 1.0 FA

So I was wrong, it's actually McKay that gets looked after the most although he does give away more frees than Curnow.

All the other key forwards have reasonably similar FF and FA, apart from some serial stagers like the Kings and Larkey.

That means there's a couple of potential things going on. Curnow/McKay both play for frees or defenders just decide to be undisciplined against them and then turn disciplined again the next week. I know which scenario I think is going on...

From the game against Port last night, that first Curnow blocking free was a disgrace, and in the second high free there was very little contact.

I did an analysis of season 2021 regarding goals kicked directly from frees. Carlton were way out in front with about 24% of their goals coming from frees, Curnow and McKay being the main recipients.

It makes me laugh when I hear Carlton fans booing the umps when their forwards get an absolute armchair ride week after week for years.

So nah, not idiotic at all.

Nice verbal salad, but your stats don't actually take into account the most important thing: whether those free kicks were actually legitimate. And they also don't take into account the second most important thing: whether those free kicks resulted in a score.

This year, Curnow isn't even in the top 10 in the league with frees. The entire argument that Curnow relies on free kicks to kick a goal is fallacy. Why are you bringing up 2021? Has nothing to do with the current state of affairs. Curnow didn't even play most of that year due to injury.

Additionally, here is something that was compiled last year:



Tell me which frees were not there? All of them? 50% of them? 20%? Curnow is a big boy that makes defenders nervous, scragging will happen, and some of them will be penalised.

So yes, idiotic. You're basing your argument from a hatred of Carlton, rather than from objectivity. Every dumbass that's saying "hurr free kick Curnow" should take a look at this year's stats and that video. Because all the idiots who are yelling that out wouldn't be saying the same thing if Curnow was playing for a club they didn't mind, or a more neutral club.

And Carlton supporters boo umpires? So what? Every team's supporters boo them, whether it's justified or not. Again, what a completely irrelevant point.

 

[Do the Dew]

Nice verbal salad, but your stats don't actually take into account the most important thing: whether those free kicks were actually legitimate. And they also don't take into account the second most important thing: whether those free kicks resulted in a score.

This year, Curnow isn't even in the top 10 in the league with frees. The entire argument that Curnow relies on free kicks to kick a goal is fallacy. Why are you bringing up 2021? Has nothing to do with the current state of affairs. Curnow didn't even play most of that year due to injury.

Additionally, here is something that was compiled last year:



Tell me which frees were not there? All of them? 50% of them? 20%? Curnow is a big boy that makes defenders nervous, scragging will happen, and some of them will be penalised.

So yes, idiotic. You're basing your argument from a hatred of Carlton, rather than from objectivity. Every dumbass that's saying "hurr free kick Curnow" should take a look at this year's stats and that video. Because all the idiots who are yelling that out wouldn't be saying the same thing if Curnow was playing for a club they didn't mind, or a more neutral club.

And Carlton supporters boo umpires? So what? Every team's supporters boo them, whether it's justified or not. Again, what a completely irrelevant point.

Alright a few things to work through here:

I brought up 2021 because Carlton by far led in goals/scores from frees. Considering the free kick counts to both your key forwards are relatively stable, it's not a reach to assume that they're still scoring pretty heavily from frees compared to other teams. I haven't analyzed any other season because it's a lot of work. Yes Curnow only played a few games that year. My gut feel is that the number might've increased since he's been back.

Curnow not in the top 10 in the league for frees for. He's sitting equal 17th. Every player above him is either a ruck or inside midfielder. The next key forward after him is Harry McKay in 26th, and then Jesse Hogan in 38th.

I'm not stating this due to a Carlton hatred, it's more bemusement that he and McKay get looked after far more than other key forwards in the league. I could also say that your defense of them is completely subjective, so it goes both ways.

The booing - not really irrelevant. Just shows the stupidity of supporters thinking their team gets ripped off. Analyzing free kick stats over the past 8 seasons, there's only two teams that should feel aggrieved by the umpiring: Richmond and GWS.

On the video, there's at least a dozen there that are outright wrong or extremely soft (i.e very very few other key forwards would receive these frees). Also see how much he throws his arms out and appeals to the umps.

 

[Thrawn]

Alright a few things to work through here:

I brought up 2021 because Carlton by far led in goals/scores from frees. Considering the free kick counts to both your key forwards are relatively stable, it's not a reach to assume that they're still scoring pretty heavily from frees compared to other teams. I haven't analyzed any other season because it's a lot of work. Yes Curnow only played a few games that year. My gut feel is that the number might've increased since he's been back.

Curnow not in the top 10 in the league for frees for. He's sitting equal 17th. Every player above him is either a ruck or inside midfielder. The next key forward after him is Harry McKay in 26th, and then Jesse Hogan in 38th.

I'm not stating this due to a Carlton hatred, it's more bemusement that he and McKay get looked after far more than other key forwards in the league. I could also say that your defense of them is completely subjective, so it goes both ways.

The booing - not really irrelevant. Just shows the stupidity of supporters thinking their team gets ripped off. Analyzing free kick stats over the past 8 seasons, there's only two teams that should feel aggrieved by the umpiring: Richmond and GWS.

On the video, there's at least a dozen there that are outright wrong or extremely soft (i.e very very few other key forwards would receive these frees). Also see how much he throws his arms out and appeals to the umps.

Remember, you also have to take into consideration why the free kick was there, and whether it resulted in a score. Not sure how much you watch us, but there's been plenty of times where he's been infringed upon and nada. In fact, he's had considerably less free kicks in front of goal than last year... or at least that's what it looks like.

I'd like to believe you on that, I really do, but your post was rather acidic on Curnow and our "ride".

Yes, irrelevant. I don't care if supporters boo the umpires, all clubs do it and it has no bearing on Curnow or how he gets his goals.

We see examples of these free kicks every week with a whole range of players, saying it's Charlie-biased is a bit silly. You wouldn't be cherry-picking now would you? As far as throwing out the arms go, I see this from other forwards, mids, defenders, etc. Especially prominent when the ball goes over the boundary, or when there's no prior.

 

[Xtreme]

Carlton are still in prime position for the premiership. Their only real concern is a brown and gold themed team in Hawthorn.

 

[Fadge]

In the past 3 seasons Curnow has averaged 1.4 frees for (FF) and 0.7 frees against (FA) per game.

In a similar time period for the other main big key forwards in the league:

Harry McKay: 1.6 FF and 1.0 FA
Max King: 1.4 FF and 1.1 FA.
Nick Larkey: 1.3 FF and 0.7 FA
Ben King: 1.1 FF and 0.7 FA
Joe Daniher: 1.0 FF and 1.2 FA
Taylor Walker: 1.0 FF and 1.2 FA
Jesse Hogan: 0.9 FF and 0.5 FA
Jeremy Cameron: 0.9 FF and 1.1 FA
Tom Hawkins: 0.5 FF and 0.8 FA
Jack Riewoldt: 0.7 FF and 1.0 FA

So I was wrong, it's actually McKay that gets looked after the most although he does give away more frees than Curnow.

All the other key forwards have reasonably similar FF and FA, apart from some serial stagers like the Kings and Larkey.

That means there's a couple of potential things going on. Curnow/McKay both play for frees or defenders just decide to be undisciplined against them and then turn disciplined again the next week. I know which scenario I think is going on...

From the game against Port last night, that first Curnow blocking free was a disgrace, and in the second high free there was very little contact.

I did an analysis of season 2021 regarding goals kicked directly from frees. Carlton were way out in front with about 24% of their goals coming from frees, Curnow and McKay being the main recipients.

It makes me laugh when I hear Carlton fans booing the umps when their forwards get an absolute armchair ride week after week for years.

So nah, not idiotic at all.

Fantastic work.

Data. Is important.

 

[Fadge]

Nice verbal salad, but your stats don't actually take into account the most important thing: whether those free kicks were actually legitimate. And they also don't take into account the second most important thing: whether those free kicks resulted in a score.

This year, Curnow isn't even in the top 10 in the league with frees.

You're getting very defensive.

You can't compare Curnow's number of frees with midfielders who are around the ball twice as often.

Compare apples with apples, which is what Do the Dew kindly did for you.

 

[Thrawn]

yikes.

not taking the downfall well are we?

I've run out of coffee this morning.

 

[doppleganger]

Alright a few things to work through here:

I brought up 2021 because Carlton by far led in goals/scores from frees. Considering the free kick counts to both your key forwards are relatively stable, it's not a reach to assume that they're still scoring pretty heavily from frees compared to other teams. I haven't analyzed any other season because it's a lot of work. Yes Curnow only played a few games that year. My gut feel is that the number might've increased since he's been back.

Curnow not in the top 10 in the league for frees for. He's sitting equal 17th. Every player above him is either a ruck or inside midfielder. The next key forward after him is Harry McKay in 26th, and then Jesse Hogan in 38th.

I'm not stating this due to a Carlton hatred, it's more bemusement that he and McKay get looked after far more than other key forwards in the league. I could also say that your defense of them is completely subjective, so it goes both ways.

The booing - not really irrelevant. Just shows the stupidity of supporters thinking their team gets ripped off. Analyzing free kick stats over the past 8 seasons, there's only two teams that should feel aggrieved by the umpiring: Richmond and GWS.

On the video, there's at least a dozen there that are outright wrong or extremely soft (i.e very very few other key forwards would receive these frees). Also see how much he throws his arms out and appeals to the umps.

Freekick Charlie will most likely get his 100th free in last 3 seasons next week against the Pies...something for the Bagger fans to celebrate!

The next best key forward is Harry McKay who has received 82.

Jesse Hogan has 55, Jezza Cameron 52

Most forwards you need to get rag dolled or head taken off to get a free.

 

[Do the Dew]

You're getting very defensive.

You can't compare Curnow's number of frees with midfielders who are around the ball twice as often.

Compare apples with apples, which is what Do the Dew kindly did for you.

Omg you actually agree with me, miracles do happen. If only you agreed with me on the NDaicos thread

 

[Fadge]

Omg you actually agree with me, miracles do happen. If only you agreed with me on the NDaicos thread

It makes a difference when you bring actual facts to the table.

 

[Do the Dew]

Remember, you also have to take into consideration why the free kick was there, and whether it resulted in a score. Not sure how much you watch us, but there's been plenty of times where he's been infringed upon and nada. In fact, he's had considerably less free kicks in front of goal than last year... or at least that's what it looks like.

I'd like to believe you on that, I really do, but your post was rather acidic on Curnow and our "ride".

Yes, irrelevant. I don't care if supporters boo the umpires, all clubs do it and it has no bearing on Curnow or how he gets his goals.

We see examples of these free kicks every week with a whole range of players, saying it's Charlie-biased is a bit silly. You wouldn't be cherry-picking now would you? As far as throwing out the arms go, I see this from other forwards, mids, defenders, etc. Especially prominent when the ball goes over the boundary, or when there's no prior.

The point is that Curnow and McKay are a fair way ahead of their peers in frees for who play the exact same position. Don't get me wrong, they're both very good players, but they get a lot of generous treatment from the umps. Stats back this up over the course of many years.

You can't call my post "acidic" and play the victim after you originally called it idiotic...

I'm not cherry-picking examples. These are just the latest in a long line of Curnow being looked after. He's actually very similar to Ben Brown when he used to play for North, in that he runs under the ball and then throws his arms out when he gets outbodied or feels contact. There's plenty of players who play for frees, but of key forwards Curnow and McKay are the #1 and #2.

 

[Thrawn]

The point is that Curnow and McKay are a fair way ahead of their peers in frees for who play the exact same position. Don't get me wrong, they're both very good players, but they get a lot of generous treatment from the umps. Stats back this up over the course of many years.

You can't call my post "acidic" and play the victim after you originally called it idiotic...

I'm not cherry-picking examples. These are just the latest in a long line of Curnow being looked after. He's actually very similar to Ben Brown when he used to play for North, in that he runs under the ball and then throws his arms out when he gets outbodied or feels contact. There's plenty of players who play for frees, but of key forwards Curnow and McKay are the #1 and #2.

You can splurt out all the stats you want, but without context, they're meaningless. You are using it to downplay Curnow, quite deliberately too. That's why I called it acidic.

 

[carlton_99]

Remember, you also have to take into consideration why the free kick was there

That's irrelevant to them all that matters is the most meaningless stat in the game which is free kick numbers.

It's essentially Daniel Hoyne-type analysis.

 

[sup3rfish]

You can splurt out all the stats you want, but without context, they're meaningless. You are using it to downplay Curnow, quite deliberately too. That's why I called it acidic.

my take from the stats you are looking for are of the key forwards Charlie and Harry are #1 and #2 for free kicks for compared to every other key forward in the comp. Thats a pretty significant stat.

 

[Fadge]

my take from the stats you are looking for are of the key forwards Charlie and Harry are #1 and #2 for free kicks for compared to every other key forward in the comp. Thats a pretty significant stat.

If these posters are representative of the Carlton crowds, they honestly believe the following:
1. Charlie and Harry absolutely deserve every free kick they get, and more;
2. Carlton are extremely hard done by with the umpiring in every other position on the ground.