Banter Carlton is better in 2024. Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Collingwood? Part 3

[carlton_99]

A pointy end that from all reports is bog average.

Literally no one has said this. Are you trying to manifest it into existence or something?

 

[DopeMaster]

SEN just gave Austin an A+ and named him king of trade week, where as the Pies haven't realised that list management means the future as well, one A grader doesn't make much difference.

The same SEN brains trust that gave the trade week trophy to Essendon on multiple occasions?

In seriousness, the trade week for Carlton was great in isolation. Got an excellent deal from West Coast and if you pick right you should end up with an A grade player.

Looking at the moves in a broader context, the age of your superstar captain, the players available for trade, the depth of this particular draft etc is where I think Carlton may have erred.

So yes, fantastic trading in isolation. Not so great when considered in a broader context IMO. Time will obviously tell.

 

[DopeMaster]

Literally no one has said this. Are you trying to manifest it into existence or something?

Average in the sense that it's not much better or worse than other years. They're obviously not poor players..

Strength of this draft is how far deep it bats in the first round and beyond, rather than having a razor sharp pointy end.

 

[carlton_99]

Average in the sense that it's not much better or worse than other years. They're obviously not poor players..

Strength of this draft is how far deep it bats in the first round and beyond, rather than having a razor sharp pointy end.

Even if the top end is just like it normally is it is still a very high quality. The likes of Daicos, Sheezel, Callaghan, McLuggage, Rankine, Wardlaw and Jackson have gone pick 3 or so in the last few years. Anyone at that level will help. No guarantees of course

 

[Robertio]

The same SEN brains trust that gave the trade week trophy to Essendon on multiple occasions?

In seriousness, the trade week for Carlton was great in isolation. Got an excellent deal from West Coast and if you pick right you should end up with an A grade player.

Looking at the moves in a broader context, the age of your superstar captain, the players available for trade, the depth of this particular draft etc is where I think Carlton may have erred.

So yes, fantastic trading in isolation. Not so great when considered in a broader context IMO. Time will obviously tell.

Cripps has a few years yet, i think Houston has landed at the best place for him with a team that is going all in for the now while the Blues still have time on their side.

 

[DopeMaster]

Cripps has a few years yet, i think Houston has landed at the best place for him with a team that is going all in for the now while the Blues still have time on their side.

Yeah that's probably fair.

The key will be if the magic bean comes on quick enough to coincide with peak Cripps as to whether Carlton get better or tread water. You really need the player to be a Daicos / Sheezel etc

Other variable is how long Cripps can maintain current output into his 30s.

 

[Robertio]

Yeah that's probably fair.

The key will be if the magic bean comes on quick enough to coincide with peak Cripps as to whether Carlton get better or tread water. You really need the player to be a Daicos / Sheezel etc

Other variable is how long Cripps can maintain current output into his 30s.

Cripps was running the best he ever had this season, could have another 4 to go, i don't think one man is going to get you a flag on his own anyway.

 

[Fadge]

The same SEN brains trust that gave the trade week trophy to Essendon on multiple occasions?

In seriousness, the trade week for Carlton was great in isolation. Got an excellent deal from West Coast and if you pick right you should end up with an A grade player.

Looking at the moves in a broader context, the age of your superstar captain, the players available for trade, the depth of this particular draft etc is where I think Carlton may have erred.

So yes, fantastic trading in isolation. Not so great when considered in a broader context IMO. Time will obviously tell.

This is absolutely spot on.

But then we need to reassess next year and see what picks Hawthorn get with Carlton's first and second round selections, in exchange for pick 14.

We'll also spend the next 12 years comparing the output of Carlton's pick 3 with West Coast's pick 12 and 14....

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Additionally, in a draft that's notable feature is strength of depth I.e. Players through pick 20 may have gone top ten in other years, players through to 40 top 25 in other years etc. Carlton have decided to eschew the strategic advantage of their multiple first round picks, and trade them all away to get right to the pointy end! A pointy end that from all reports is bog average. Again, zigging when they should be zagging. It's like watching a bear riding a tiny motorcycle.

There was similar commentary when we traded pick 20 & 21 for pick 11.

Got us Charlie Curnow.

 

[Fadge]

There was similar commentary when we traded pick 20 & 21 for pick 11.

Got us Charlie Curnow.

How many flags did that lead to?

What about when you moved up to pick 19, for Stocker?

 

[Robertio]

This is absolutely spot on.

But then we need to reassess next year and see what picks Hawthorn get with Carlton's first and second round selections, in exchange for pick 14.

We'll also spend the next 12 years comparing the output of Carlton's pick 3 with West Coast's pick 12 and 14....

I don't think we've finished yet mate.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

How many flags did that lead to?

What about when you moved up to pick 19, for Stocker?

Sorry is Curnows career over?

We basically ended up with Stocker, Kemp & Philip. Kemp looks ok, played 40-odd games after being injured with an ACL in his 1st year.

Adelaide got Fischer Macasey with our pick in a pretty average draft.

Different regime now anyway, drafting has improved since SOS left.

 

[DopeMaster]

Cripps was running the best he ever had this season, could have another 4 to go, i don't think one man is going to get you a flag on his own anyway.

Of course not, but one man can be and often is the difference between 1-2 close HandA games, a 1 goal prelim or small GF margin. It's a game of inches after all.

 

[DopeMaster]

I don't think we've finished yet mate.

Trading? What other big fish do you have on the reel aside from Haynes?

 

[Robertio]

Trading? What other big fish do you have on the reel aside from Haynes?

Just picks mate, looks like Kemp is interested in the Saints now and Doggys want Kennedy

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Trading? What other big fish do you have on the reel aside from Haynes?

It's so good seeing Collingwood fall into the Messiah Complex. Big salaries, big contracts, big recruits, big fishes, big names.

History has a way of repeating itself and there's always a club that falls for this. It's now Collingwoods turn.

 

[Fadge]

It's so good seeing Collingwood fall into the Messiah Complex. Big salaries, big contracts, big recruits, big fishes, big names.

History has a way of repeating itself and there's always a club that falls for this. It's now Collingwoods turn.

Yeah, the last time we got busy at the trade table we brought in Mitchell, McStay and Hill.

And guess what happened?

 

[YeoShuey]

Imagine comparing a multiple Brownlow champion like Cripps and Daicos. Not even close.

 

[No SPIN]

Yes, yes, we understand Collingwood fans don't value or understand the draft.

No need to amplify your stupidity.

While we’ve been making Finals, Top 4 PF’s, GF’ s and winning flags you’ve been picking first rounders and winning wooden spoons.
I think the superior team in terms of List Management is beyond question.

 

[DopeMaster]

It's so good seeing Collingwood fall into the Messiah Complex. Big salaries, big contracts, big recruits, big fishes, big names.

History has a way of repeating itself and there's always a club that falls for this. It's now Collingwoods turn.

Yeah I'd much prefer to not get any A-Graders and other team improving players whilst in the window, better to wait for magic beans to sprout while generational players go the way of the glue factory.

 

[No SPIN]

I've asked ChatGPT to sort it out for you.

I asked it to crunch the probability of a Pick #3 to play in a Premiership vs. a pick #12 & a pick #14.

The likelihood of playing in a premiership varies significantly based on several factors, including the player's talent, the team's performance, and their position in the draft. Here's an analysis based on historical data:

Scenario 1: One player at Pick #3​

Players drafted at Pick #3 generally have a higher chance of playing in a premiership because they are often more talented and join more competitive teams. The probability of a Pick #3 player being part of a premiership team is approximately 40-50%.

Scenario 2: Two players at Pick #12 and Pick #14​

• The likelihood of a player at Pick #12 playing in a premiership is around 20-30%.
• The likelihood of a player at Pick #14 playing in a premiership is about 15-25%.

To calculate the probability of at least one of the two players (Pick #12 and Pick #14) being part of a premiership team, we again use the complementary probability:

Probability of neither Pick #12 nor Pick #14 playing in a premiership:​

• Probability of Pick #12 not playing in a premiership: 1−0.25=0.751 - 0.25 = 0.751−0.25=0.75 (assuming 25% likelihood).
• Probability of Pick #14 not playing in a premiership: 1−0.20=0.801 - 0.20 = 0.801−0.20=0.80 (assuming 20% likelihood).

The probability of neither player reaching a premiership is:0.75×0.80=0.600.75 \times 0.80 = 0.600.75×0.80=0.60

So, the probability of at least one player (either Pick #12 or Pick #14) playing in a premiership is:1 - 0.60 = 0.40 or 40%

Conclusion:​

• Pick #3: 40-50% chance of playing in a premiership.
• Picks #12 and #14 (combined): ~40% chance of at least one player playing in a premiership.

In this case, taking a player at Pick #3 gives you a slightly better probability of having that player be part of a premiership team than the combined chances of two players at Picks #12 and #14.

Such a shame AI has ruined any mafs talents you've worked so hard on.

You are so naive you didn’t even pick up the flawed assumption “ Pick 3 normally goes to a competitive”. Infact it usually goes to a bottom dweller.

 

[DopeMaster]

Yes, yes, we understand Collingwood fans don't value or understand the draft.

No need to amplify your stupidity.

 

[YeoShuey]

Pick 3 for playing in a Premiership isn't saying much when you have a player of Sheezel's quality playing for North.

He should come to Carlton and give it a real crack.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Yeah, the last time we got busy at the trade table we brought in Mitchell, McStay and Hill.

And guess what happened?

Please.

That's actually shrewd trading & recruiting for needs. Blokes who will slot into the 22 and play their role without having to give up any value. That's what Collingwood are/were good at it.

Now you've gotten carried away & the past 2 years you're throwing away solid currency to get the biggest name available, regardless if they're that important to your needs or not.

Big clubs get greedy - Carlton were the worst, followed by Richmond & then Essendon outdid us all. However if Collingwood somehow don't even win any finals next year this could trump Essendon's 2017/2018 haul.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Yeah I'd much prefer to not get any A-Graders and other team improving players whilst in the window, better to wait for magic beans to sprout while generational players go the way of the glue factory.

Dude you gotta get your head around the fact that every player was a draft pick once upon a time.