Preview Carlton v Brisbane Lions Round 8 (Friday 5 May 7:50PM @Marvel)

[Grasshopper17]

I might try and wander round to 12 this game (normally sit on the other side) as I might be flying solo to this game. My partner and son were going to come but didnt realise it would sell out, should have looked earlier.

Do we know what sections are GA yet?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Pretty simple take on the game from me this week. I just want to see 3 things:

1. Can we bring the energy in Zorko's absence? In Round 1 we were basically lifeless. It might be different for a home game where he can get around everyone in the change rooms etc, but you wouldn't expect he'll travel to Melbourne. So it's up to the lads that ARE playing to generate their own excitement.

2. Can we defend with the same discipline we showed last time in Melbourne against the Dogs? With our attack completely dysfunctional it was a super effort by our defence to keep the opposition to only 67.

3. Can we attack with more dare and adventure than we did in Round 3? To me a big part of this is whether our key forwards are able to present up field and make a contest consistently. If they are able to, it will draw Carlton defenders to their vicinity, giving us the opportunity to move the ball by hand and short passes through the corridor. It will also allow our smalls to play the pressure roles intended of them, instead of being expected to be marking targets.

If the answer is "yes" to all these 3 questions, we probably win, but I really think it's one of those games where the way/how well we play is more important than the result.

 

[Dalions]

If Fletcher plays it probably means that Wilmot goes back in replace of Rich and Fletcher plays wing.
Soo Dev, Answerth or Lyons to replace Zorks?

 

[BL_dobsmob]

How funny has the media narrative been this week lol - “HOW does anyone stop Collingwood?”

I don’t know, maybe look at the team that completely and thoroughly dismantled them a few weeks ago?

I also think that some of the meejia are missing the fact that “come from behind” wins require that you are BEHIND first i.e. the second best team in a two team game.

16 points at 3/4 time is a relatively small margin and if Adelaide had kicked half of their gettable set shot goals it would have been 36+.

Anyway “play on” and keep forgetting that one team HAS beaten them.

 

[CarterS]

How funny has the media narrative been this week lol - “HOW does anyone stop Collingwood?”

I don’t know, maybe look at the team that completely and thoroughly dismantled them a few weeks ago?

Adelaide used the same game plan, Collingwoods defence push up the ground so we got them out the back, not every team has a Charlie Cameron though, and its a case of knowing how to beat them and actually executing are different things.

 

[Clarkythelion]

Watching at TV it really felt like we were relentless. Just kept going and going, with lead going 2 > 5 > 5 (still won the quarter) > 7, Freo never got a real run on, we kept disrupting them whatever they did, and it never really felt like we were on the back foot for very long. We didn't need to go crazy and get too fancy because we were never threatened.

I think watching any game live where there are bugger all supporters for the opposition, no cheering when they get a goal, no "ball" when the Lions are tackled, just seems flat and you can easily conclude the Lions were a bit off but it was the whole atmosphere that was a bit stale. i think on TV they can probably add a bit of crowd noise from microphones right in front of their 50 or so supporters. The last qtr was really stale at the ground, well the last half really it it wasn't for a few goals and singing after them from the lions most of the crowd would have nodded off. (kidding - almost)

 

[M Malice]

If Fletcher plays it probably means that Wilmot goes back in replace of Rich and Fletcher plays wing.
Soo Dev, Answerth or Lyons to replace Zorks?

Yes Dev or Answerth.

 

[SizeMatters]

Carlton will put newman on Cameron. He kept Greene to 5 touches a few weeks back. Leaving saad to roam or take Rayner.

If it pans out that way I unfortunately expect Saad to get 20+ uncontested touches. Rayner wouldn't be able to keep up with him.
I think most likely McCarthy will be on Saad.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Carlton will put newman on Cameron. He kept Greene to 5 touches a few weeks back. Leaving saad to roam or take Rayner.

Holding Greene to that type of game is a great result, however do you think Cameron is a comparable player type to Greene ?
I haven’t watched a lot of Carlton games, but I’d be comfortable with Charlie having a decent day against Newman.

Saads rebound could be a concern if left to roam, or potentially be on Rayner. As discussed above, Linc has been used fairly defensively lately and he has been playing great team football.

 

[knaf]

if Fletcher plays it will be a bit of a slap in the face to guys who miss out and have been playing much better in the VFL. Answerth, Dev, Prior and Lyon have been clearly better and are around AFL standard AhChee has performed well when given an opportunity. And then there is Matho.

 

[On the quiet]

Answerth for Zorks and Prior for Richy is my guess.

yeap i think so, and be good to see Prior get a few consecutive games. I think unfortunately Dev will miss or now that DeKoning not playing, Dev 23rd man in lieu of Fort, but could be Lyons.

 

[Warwick]

I'd be down for it if they think he's ready. He'd be playing Wilmots role, so as long as he can be as disciplined as Wilmot on the wing he'll be fine.

Ultimately though, would be silly to think this selection will make or break the result.

The problem is we say this all the time. And these young guys come in for a big game like this and manage 4-7 disposals and do not much else. It’d be different if he was destroying them in the 2s.

We’ve got blokes more suited for this one like Dev, Prior, Ah Chee, Matho surely.

Anyway, it hasn’t even happened yet, and as you say, it’s not going to make or break us.

 

[rusty08]

If Fletcher plays it probably means that Wilmot goes back in replace of Rich and Fletcher plays wing.
Soo Dev, Answerth or Lyons to replace Zorks?

Rumours

 

[Dalions]

Rumours

I would be more inclined to play Prior for Rich and Dev or Answerth for Zorks.
Fletcher needs to have some consistently good footy to force his way in imo

 

[M Malice]

I can't see the sense in playing Jaspa Fletcher before the likes of Jaxon Prior, James Tunstill, Dev Robertson, Harry Sharp and James Madden who have all been better and more consistent in the reserves than Jaspa from my viewing of it.

 

[Sanchez365]

We know Fages loves Answerth and once it was evident he'd struggle to get a game in the back half we quickly decided he could be a midfielder.

So expecting him to play this week.

Yeah it must be hard to be a Robinson, watching a half back with pretty average disposal somehow start getting midfield minutes.

Not sure Answerth is really enough of a point of difference there, but maybe he is that defensive minded team player that we need to keep it balanced?

 

[Nunez]

if Fletcher plays it will be a bit of a slap in the face to guys who miss out and have been playing much better in the VFL. Answerth, Dev, Prior and Lyon have been clearly better and are around AFL standard AhChee has performed well when given an opportunity. And then there is Matho.

Hardly. Whoever gets selected will have warned their spot.

 

[twhowler]

One player is almost never make or break but if we are losing 500 odd games of experience and bringing a debutant and say Robertson (who is still inconsistent) it could make a difference in a high intensity game with a big crowd.

Considering how poor our ball movement was last time Rich was out v dogs we really need to go like for like. Prior was excellent v pies and drilled some nice kicks. I have said before Rich has lost some dare but replacing him with Answerth would not be a good call. I spoke to Rich at Mt Barker on the friday and he said of the dogs game we were switched on but our ball movement was awful. I think this can be a particular issue at Dockland as there is less space so easy to turnover / be forced down the line.

Saad is so important for their ball movement especially with Docherty going in to the midfield. Would love to see and Answerth lockdown role. But i doubt it. Buckley said on On the Couch some coaches you never know what you’ll get and others you know there will never be a surprise. The only coach he singled out for the latter - Fagan.

 

[3KZ is Football]

if Fletcher plays it will be a bit of a slap in the face to guys who miss out and have been playing much better in the VFL. Answerth, Dev, Prior and Lyon have been clearly better and are around AFL standard AhChee has performed well when given an opportunity. And then there is Matho.

I agree one hundred percent. Fletcher may become a gun and a serious long term prospect, but there are plenty of skilled, seasoned and in form players in front of him. Players like Fletcher, Tunstill and Lohmann and those calling for their elevation to the seniors need to understand that Lyons, Prior, Roberston, Ah Chee, Mathieson and Answerth are well and truly in front of them for a senior spot.

Fagan and the selection panel need to be careful that they respect and reward the hard work of players who are toiling in the reserves to earn their place in the seniors. Even though Lester is too much of a class act to say anything disloyal, the question in his recent presser about how he felt when he had been working hard to get back into the seniors and Joyce was drafted and walked pretty much straight into the seniors was a very obvious one and goes to the heart of the issue. Joyce played 13 games over four seasons at St.Kilda and had not played senior football since Rd.13 2022 when he was dropped by the Saints. Having been drafted by Brisbane, he missed Rd 1, but was then elevated straight into the seniors, selected in front of Lester. I think that this sends a terrible message to players, it was insulting to Lester and it was the sort of decision that can damage club culture. At the start of 2023, Lester had just come off winning the Reserves B.F with Jimmy Tunstill, he had played 161 senior games, he was a member of the Leadership Group and while Gardiner and Adams may have been preferred over him in 2022, neither was available. You would have thought he would be selected over a 'fringe' player we picked up from the Saints who had paid ZERO dues at his new club.

In an attempt to do some retrospective ass covering, the club is now putting it out that Lester may have had a 'niggle' himself, but that doesn't wash. He played six games in the Reserves and was clearly good to go. Fagan simply got this selection wrong and I hope he realises this.

 

[KissKiss]

Do we know what sections are GA yet?

Havent heard anything yet. Not sure when the club tends to send out stuff but seems absent this year

 

[KissKiss]

I agree one hundred percent. Fletcher may become a gun and a serious long term prospect, but there are plenty of skilled, seasoned and in form players in front of him. Players like Fletcher, Tunstill and Lohmann and those calling for their elevation to the seniors need to understand that Lyons, Prior, Roberston, Ah Chee, Mathieson and Answerth are well and truly in front of them for a senior spot.

Fagan and the selection panel need to be careful that they respect and reward the hard work of players who are toiling in the reserves to earn their place in the seniors. Even though Lester is too much of a class act to say anything disloyal, the question in his recent presser about how he felt when he had been working hard to get back into the seniors and Joyce was drafted and walked pretty much straight into the seniors was a very obvious one and goes to the heart of the issue. Joyce played 13 games over four seasons at St.Kilda and had not played senior football since Rd.13 2022 when he was dropped by the Saints. Having been drafted by Brisbane, he missed Rd 1, but was then elevated straight into the seniors, selected in front of Lester. I think that this sends a terrible message to players, it was insulting to Lester and it was the sort of decision that can damage club culture. At the start of 2023, Lester had just come off winning the Reserves B.F with Jimmy Tunstill, he had played 161 senior games, he was a member of the Leadership Group and while Gardiner and Adams may have been preferred over him in 2022, neither was available. You would have thought he would be selected over a 'fringe' player we picked up from the Saints who had paid ZERO dues at his new club.

In an attempt to do some retrospective ass covering, the club is now putting it out that Lester may have had a 'niggle' himself, but that doesn't wash. He played in the Reserves and was clearly good to go. Fagan simply got this selection wrong and I hope he realises this.

Lester was injured in the preseason and wasnt in full training. He wasnt fit to start the year and hence spent time getting match fit first.

Completely different scenario when players are fit and getting ignored

 

[Warwick]

I agree one hundred percent. Fletcher may become a gun and a serious long term prospect, but there are plenty of skilled, seasoned and in form players in front of him. Players like Fletcher, Tunstill and Lohmann and those calling for their elevation to the seniors need to understand that Lyons, Prior, Roberston, Ah Chee, Mathieson and Answerth are well and truly in front of them for a senior spot.

Fagan and the selection panel need to be careful that they respect and reward the hard work of players who are toiling in the reserves to earn their place in the seniors. Even though Lester is too much of a class act to say anything disloyal, the question in his recent presser about how he felt when he had been working hard to get back into the seniors and Joyce was drafted and walked pretty much straight into the seniors was a very obvious one and goes to the heart of the issue. Joyce played 13 games over four seasons at St.Kilda and had not played senior football since Rd.13 2022 when he was dropped by the Saints. Having been drafted by Brisbane, he missed Rd 1, but was then elevated straight into the seniors, selected in front of Lester. I think that this sends a terrible message to players, it was insulting to Lester and it was the sort of decision that can damage club culture. At the start of 2023, Lester had just come off winning the Reserves B.F with Jimmy Tunstill, he had played 161 senior games, he was a member of the Leadership Group and while Gardiner and Adams may have been preferred over him in 2022, neither was available. You would have thought he would be selected over a 'fringe' player we picked up from the Saints who had paid ZERO dues at his new club.

In an attempt to do some retrospective ass covering, the club is now putting it out that Lester may have had a 'niggle' himself, but that doesn't wash. He played in the Reserves and was clearly good to go. Fagan simply got this selection wrong and I hope he realises this.

Mate come on.

It’s wearing thin.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Lester was injured in the preseason and wasnt in full training. He wasnt fit to start the year and hence spent time getting match fit first.

Completely different scenario when players are fit and getting ignored

That is interesting and good to know. After six games in the reserves he must have been back at his peak.

 

[Tom14]

Ultimately it all comes down to our midfield.
Our midfield get the ball forward enough, then our forward line is hard to stop.
When we lose games it is generally when our midfield is comprehensively beaten.

Case in point - our worst losses last year:

Prelim v Cats - lost inside 50s 59-46, lost contested ball 125-117
Dees round 23 - won i50s 58-50, lost clearances 40-36, lost contested ball 140-130
Dees round 15 - lost i50s 62-43, clearances 46-35, contested ball 170-132!!!!


Port in round 1 this year:

Lost i50s 60-40, clearances 47-38, contested ball 150-116.


Pretty clear theme - if we lose in the midfield badly, that is when our forwards don't fire and score.

 

[Tom14]

Case in point - our worst losses last year:

Prelim v Cats - lost inside 50s 59-46, lost contested ball 125-117
Dees round 23 - won i50s 58-50, lost clearances 40-36, lost contested ball 140-130
Dees round 15 - lost i50s 62-43, clearances 46-35, contested ball 170-132!!!!


Port in round 1 this year:

Lost i50s 60-40, clearances 47-38, contested ball 150-116.


Pretty clear theme - if we lose in the midfield badly, that is when our forwards don't fire and score.

To add to this - I thought our forward line was deplorable in round 3 v the dogs in terms of effort and fight, but the ball movement didn't help. What also didn't help is that we got beaten in clearances and lost contested ball pretty clearly. We had no answers for Bont.

For this week I'm probably too confident, as I've never been a believer in Carlton. The first 5-8 names on their team sheet are fantastic, but I think it falls away pretty rapidly. They also don't have any speed in the midfield area which is something that concerns me against other teams. Cripps and Hewitt can bully through you with power, but I feel much better about coming up against that.

They also move the ball very slowly with a lot of chipping it around, which again suits us. Our weakness this year is going to be the teams that can transition quickly and expose the lack of athleticism we have in defence (while McKenna has improved us in that area, we are still weakest to that type of ball movement). Our forward defence has got a lot better and we've caused some great turnovers that have led to scores, but when it gets out the back on us we are in trouble. If we apply pressure to Saad, I think we go a long way to winning this one.

If there is a heap of high slow ball, I expect Harris and Jack Payne to do far better than Barass and whatever WAFL player they had playing key back for Carlton last week (Rotham?). Curnow and McKay might kick 7-8 between them but my bet is that Carlton get no more than 12-13 goals.

Only thing that gives me concern is our record away from home - but I don't think Carlton is on the level of even the dogs or port so this is a game we should be winning.