Unofficial Preview Changes & discussion v Crows

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Tom14 said:
Prior played one great game against the hawks in 2022 in Tassie and has been pretty poor ever since.

Sad as I reckon he has the talent.
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was really good v pies last year i thought if i am remembering the game. he was very stiff to be dropped (player came back so he made way). we don't do enough of backing youngsters in and finding a spot for them. sometimes they just need a run in the 1s and confidence.

but his hawks mcg game was awful.
 
I was at that Hawks game at the MCG, Prior didn’t even try at times, I was disgusted. Here’s a bloke who gets limited opportunities and plays like that. I don’t care how well he’s going, shouldn’t ever be picked again after that. The fact he hasn’t been playing well, too bad. Headed to delisting unless something unexpected happens.

Plus Brain recently got extended didn’t he? So surely he’s ahead here anyway.
 
TheMan_Bun said:
Will be an interesting game this one. Crom are having the same issues as us. Their forward 50 entries have been low quality and their forwards are simply not doing enough to create opportunities. They're 14th in the competition in scores per inside 50 (41%), 13th in forward half intercepts (20) and 17th in points from forward half intercepts (18.1).

Coming up against our back group will be a huge challenge for them no doubt. Harris and Frog deserve as much recognition as we can give them this season. We are fifth in the AFL in points against from turnover (42.7), and second in turnover to score against percentage (16%). We are ranked 14th in the competition in points against. Despite injuries and disruptions, they have kept that group running crisp. Real genuine leadership there.

Where Crom are strong is defending. They have conceded 43.3 points from turnover this season so far (ranked sixth in the AFL). We'll need to be patient with the ball and pick through their set-up, I'm confident in our ability to do this. We picked Melbourne apart at the MCG not that long ago. If we begin losing the stoppage/clearance game and we revert to rushing and blazing away, they'll simply create turnovers and run through us all night.

Crom are currently ranked 6th this year in corridor use compared to 10th last year. They have clearly been given a message to be more daring coming out of defense. That dare doesn't seem to be translating to other areas of the ground for them however, so where this will be won or lost for us is whether our forward group is up to playing our trademark pressure game or not. If we can do that, I can't see us not generating enough opportunity to win.

Whether we capitalise on that or not is the mystery of 2024 for us...

---

Assuming Starce doesn't get up.

Gardiner - Morris
Linc - Ah Chee (strong marking presence, will apply forward 50 pressure)
Answerth - Sharp (Sharp to play up the wing and Wilmot to stay back)
Starce - Prior (I see the temptation to debut Brain but Prior has experience)

Can't help but feel Bailey and Dev Rob would be handy right about now. Still confident in the team we have though.
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Great analysis. Where have you sourced this data?
 
Conor McKenna, Jack Payne, Ryan Lester.
Darcy Wilmot, Harris Andrews, Dayne Zorko.

Oscar McInerney, Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley.
Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage, Harry Sharp.

Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner.
Kai Lohmann, Joe Daniher, Logan Morris.

Jaspa Fletcher, Bruce Reville, Shadeau Brain, James Tunstill... Sub- Jaxon Prior.
___________________________
Assuming all of Gardiner, McCarthy, Answerth, Ah Chee, Starcevich will be unavailable.
 
M Malice said:
Conor McKenna, Jack Payne, Ryan Lester.
Darcy Wilmot, Harris Andrews, Dayne Zorko.

Oscar McInerney, Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley.
Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage, Harry Sharp.

Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner.
Kai Lohmann, Joe Daniher, Logan Morris.

Jaspa Fletcher, Bruce Reville, Shadeau Brain, James Tunstill... Sub- Jaxon Prior.
___________________________
Assuming all of Gardiner, McCarthy, Answerth, Ah Chee, Starcevich will be unavailable.
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Shorter pre-season is really starting to show I think, with all of the injuries.

I am hoping AhChee is fit this week and comes into the team for Tunstill and Jimmy can be the sub, or maybe even run AhChee as the sub so hopefully he gets a lighter run coming back off the Hammy.
 
Has anyone heard any recent updates on Will Ashcroft? There was a news article in January saying he was targeting round 11 or 12, but I can’t find anything since then and he’s still “TBC” on injury list.
 
Thedeftouch said:
Has anyone heard any recent updates on Will Ashcroft? There was a news article in January saying he was targeting round 11 or 12, but I can’t find anything since then and he’s still “TBC” on injury list.
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Doubt he is ready before a full 12 month recovery.
So that would be round 16-17 at the earliest imo.
The club will take it very cautiously with him especially after Doedee recently.
 
Thedeftouch said:
Has anyone heard any recent updates on Will Ashcroft? There was a news article in January saying he was targeting round 11 or 12, but I can’t find anything since then and he’s still “TBC” on injury list.
Click to expand...

Doubt its before rd 14. I reckon somewhere around 14-18, depending on where he is at right now which remains unclear.
 

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Do not change:
Lachie & Zorko playing behind the ball.

Answerth > Brain
Gardiner > Morris (sub)
McCarthy > Tunstill
 
I would not be rushing Ah Chee back after his niggles last year. However, if declared fit they will most likely play him.
He could play half back or forward, i doubt they use him wing for now if available.

I think Jarrod Lyons can hold Linc's small forward role down for a few weeks or longer. I know lots of BF Posters will scream.
However, Lyons is a smart player but is past his usual midfield role at AFL level.
By giving him that particular small forward role it may spark him into thinking "yes i can hold that spot" for the year.
A senior player that could just concentrate on that role. No need for midfield time. Just a small forwards role for the team.
Long term we have no one that comes close to what Linc brings to that role.

I am not keen on Tunstill playing forward. Dev still out and the VFL have a bye this week.

Inexperience players likely to play v Crows: Morris (1), Reville (1), Sharp (11)
Not keen on adding Brain (0), Tunstill (9) at this stage. Even Madden has only played 13 games to date.

The club will have to gamble on a few players in the MSD and hope we get lucky with one like other clubs have over the years.
The year just got very interesting.
 
Section 5 said:
I would not be rushing Ah Chee back after his niggles last year. However, if declared fit they will most likely play him.
He could play half back or forward, i doubt they use him wing for now if available.

I think Jarrod Lyons can hold Linc's small forward role down for a few weeks or longer. I know lots of BF Posters will scream.
However, Lyons is a smart player but is past his usual midfield role at AFL level.
By giving him that particular small forward role it may spark him into thinking "yes i can hold that spot" for the year.
A senior player that could just concentrate on that role. No need for midfield time. Just a small forwards role for the team.
Long term we have no one that comes close to what Linc brings to that role.

I am not keen on Tunstill playing forward. Dev still out and the VFL have a bye this week.

Inexperience players likely to play v Crows: Morris (1), Reville (1), Sharp (11)
Not keen on adding Brain (0), Tunstill (9) at this stage. Even Madden has only played 13 games to date.

The club will have to gamble on a few players in the MSD and hope we get lucky with one like other clubs have over the years.
The year just got very interesting.
Click to expand...
Strange one S5, Jarryd has not got anywhere near enough agility and pace to play as a small forward, he needs it to be able to pressure the opposition coming out of the D50 and to get into position to crumb.
 
Section 5 said:
By giving him that particular small forward role it may spark him into thinking "yes i can hold that spot" for the year.
A senior player that could just concentrate on that role. No need for midfield time. Just a small forwards role for the team.
Long term we have no one that comes close to what Linc brings to that role.
Click to expand...
Doesn't a small forward's role involve crumbing, kicking goals, and pressuring the other team's defensive backs so they cannot escape/attack out of the 50?

I can see him crumbing and kicking goals ... not so sure about him keeping up with the opposition's small backmen ...

Mental test
Lyons vs Wilomt
Lyons vs Lester
Lyons vs Kiddy
Lyons vs Starc
Lyons vs Answerth
Lyons vs Zorko
Lyons vs well it ain't going to be Andrews of Payne is it.

How many of those match ups would have shine in?
 
Section 5 said:
I would not be rushing Ah Chee back after his niggles last year. However, if declared fit they will most likely play him.
He could play half back or forward, i doubt they use him wing for now if available.

I think Jarrod Lyons can hold Linc's small forward role down for a few weeks or longer. I know lots of BF Posters will scream.
However, Lyons is a smart player but is past his usual midfield role at AFL level.
By giving him that particular small forward role it may spark him into thinking "yes i can hold that spot" for the year.
A senior player that could just concentrate on that role. No need for midfield time. Just a small forwards role for the team.
Long term we have no one that comes close to what Linc brings to that role.

I am not keen on Tunstill playing forward. Dev still out and the VFL have a bye this week.

Inexperience players likely to play v Crows: Morris (1), Reville (1), Sharp (11)
Not keen on adding Brain (0), Tunstill (9) at this stage. Even Madden has only played 13 games to date.

The club will have to gamble on a few players in the MSD and hope we get lucky with one like other clubs have over the years.
The year just got very interesting.
Click to expand...
I could see the Coaching staff picking Jarryd Lyons this week, especially under the circumstances.
But jeez I really hope not.
Unless it is a Neale or Dunkley out injured then, jeez, I really hope not!
 
M Malice said:
Strange one S5, Jarryd has not got anywhere near enough agility and pace to play as a small forward, he needs it to be able to pressure the opposition coming out of the D50 and to get into position to crumb.
Click to expand...
Viceregal said:
Doesn't a small forward's role involve crumbing, kicking goals, and pressuring the other team's defensive backs so they cannot escape/attack out of the 50?

I can see him crumbing and kicking goals ... not so sure about him keeping up with the opposition's small backmen ...

Mental test
Lyons vs Wilomt
Lyons vs Lester
Lyons vs Kiddy
Lyons vs Starc
Lyons vs Answerth
Lyons vs Zorko
Lyons vs well it ain't going to be Andrews of Payne is it.

How many of those match ups would have shine in?
Click to expand...
It is team defense these days whether be it forwards or defenders.
Lyons won't be up against those players he will have Hinge, Michalanney, Smith.

McCarthy spends most of his time forward of the center square forward line.
Yes, he gets up the ground on occasions hanging around that wing area and even a bit further if he thinks it is warranted.
That covers a lot less ground area than a fulltime midfielder.
I think Lyons is more than fit enough to cover McCarthy's usual territory and not run out of legs so to speak.
He is a pretty strong mark and i see him slipping into holes and placing his body on the line to take marks.
Lyons is way better than McCarthy around forward stoppages and the team would have to set up for that.

I am not sure the club will get more out of Ah Chee as a small forward than Lyons.
The obvious choice is Ah Chee and i expect that's what happens, but he is not a goal kicker either.
Ah-Chee is a better closing pressure player but not as good a tackler as Lyons.
Ah-Chee scored one goal against the Blues. He has not hit the scoreboard since be it goal or behind.

We don't have many options without switching Zorko back to the forward role.
Now that will work and is a possibility that won't hurt our defense a great deal.

Players available: Possibly Ah-Chee, Lyons, Prior, Tunstill, Brain, Torrent, Lloyd, Ryan, Fort, ZZ.
Then DEV?, Madden?, Starcevich? injured.
 
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This year we have stuck with what worked, cause it got us to within a whisker of a premiership, but it was looking stale. Its a massive risk to move away from that but we are now being forced to reevaluate players and combinations and roles.

Hopefully last night is a indication that there may be a silver lining. I am sure the opportunities for the young players will bring a load of (respectful) energy to the squad.
 
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