Prediction Changes: Round 2 Vs GWS + pre-match discussion

[Wilksyy]

Why would the line move in our favour? The line's moved away from us as GWS started the week at $2.03 on TABTouch. I wouldn't be surprised to see them start faves.

My judgement is totally biased by my memory of watching them destroy us at optus last season, which looked like being the start of a solid run in to the finals for them. Instead it was their peak and they went to garbage after that.

I’m only basing that on past trends, usually the line moves consistently one way throughout the week then you see a drastic swing the other direction. Plus I’m bias and want to see Freo win.

* just to add :sometimes the market is way off, like Syd vs Ade. Opened up at -12.5 Syd (1.53) and moved to -19.5 (1.33) pretty quick.

 

[Crimboy]

I'm a data nerd.

How hard would it be to perform a comparison with Hawthorn (the team that beat us in the GF in 2013) and either Sydney or Hawthorn (2014 Grand final sides)?

I'm interested to understand if this is common to teams challenging for the flag or peculiar to Ross alone.

Finding ages for players for a team I dont care about is annoying so i didnt use the age of players but I did remove established traded players..but you can see the less time they have put into the younger players, the worse they have been and Ross thought he had a team he would take to a GF in his 3 year window 2013-2016 so he didnt put games into young kids, and we should have won that GF IMO aswell the finals in 2015 based on form. Lyon screwed the pooch by literally blooding players for 1 game then benching them to the WAFL to become defenders for the rest of the season and only playing new players when injuries needed a fill in, whereas Hawthorn actually put games into players in a balanced approach over a long time, until recently where they sit about 3-4 games per average new player and are recruiting aged players.


Yes of course its not just the games into kids, but some of those players drafted were freaks at Hawthorn too.

 

[Deveraux]

From our own website ....

 

[apuchar]

View attachment 1085677
From our own website ....

Should have looked at the tats.

 

[Cesoir]

View attachment 1085677
From our own website ....

That's terrible - it's obvious that is Blakely.

 

[wakojako]

Should have looked at the tats.

That's Wilson isn't it?

 

[Tbonefreo]

That's terrible - it's obvious that is Blakely.

Can't be. Looks like a solid kicking action

 

[wakojako]

The club doesn't have the balls to do it but surely Western replaces Colyer? Western belongs in a finals side and will be huge for us in the future. Why waste the opportunity to develop him by giving a fringe player at best game time.

Also I think we let Chapman develop in the backline for a year. After he develops we can put him in the midfield to replace Mundy and Leno can take his place out back.

 

[A New Hope]

OK second try

Out
Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Colyer
In
Darcy, Chappy, Duman/Thomas, Freddy

Acres to emergency and Giro starts on the wing.

 

[wayToGo_]

OK second try

Out
Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Colyer
In
Darcy, Chappy, Duman/Thomas, Freddy

Acres to emergency and Giro starts on the wing.

Don't think Henry will be playing if he's in the rehab group.

 

[Ogrebait]

OUT: Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Colyer
IN: Darcy, Duman, Chapman, Frederick*

B: Duman | Cox | Conca
HB: Young | Ryan | Hughes
C: Aish | Serong | Cerra
HF: Acres | Taberner | Switkowski
F: Schultz | Darcy | Mundy
R: Meek | Fyfe | Brayshaw
I: Chapman | Frederick* | Blakely | Henry Wilson
S: Giro

I've gone for Duman (over Watson) as I favour his ability to take a key forward, thereby freeing Ryan up to zone off, and allowing Chapman to ease into the game. Plonk Darcy in the square, rotating with Meek as required. Mundy and Fyfe to alternate on-ball / as a leading, mobile target (until Treacy comes in).
*If Frederick is not yet fully fit, I'd bring in Wilson (for Colyer) as I think Giro's minutes are still being managed.

Hopefully Blakely doesn't have any lingering issues from his head knock as the cupboard is pretty much bare. That said, structurally I think this is a better balanced team than last week.

Edit: Wilson in for Henry.

 

[apuchar]

That's Wilson isn't it?

Yep. Ha ha.

 

[A New Hope]

Don't think Henry will be playing if he's in the rehab group.

Haha oops I forgot him theres a lot to remember that are in the rehab group

OK second Third try

Out
Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Colyer, Henry
In
Darcy, Chappy, Duman/Thomas, Freddy and we throw Spiderman straight in

Acres to Sub and Giro starts on the wing.

 

[freodog]

Chapman in

 

[FreoRicci]

Chapman in

Confirmed. Another debutant! Not a sub I hope

 

[tonygeeks]

View attachment 1085677
From our own website ....

Maybe that kick went OOBOTF


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dale147]

Umpires

 

[Nodgey]

Ok I have NFI who’s fit or not (neither does S&C amiright amiright) but here’s my changes.

Out: Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Acres
In: Darcy, Chapman, Duman, Thomas

Colyer and Giro swap places. Conca to the midfield rotation.

 

[wakojako]

Ok I have NFI who’s fit or not (neither does S&C amiright amiright) but here’s my changes.

Out: Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Acres
In: Darcy, Chapman, Duman, Thomas

Colyer and Giro swap places. Conca to the midfield rotation.

JLO is too conservative to play 2 debutants. However, I think we'll see leno debut some time in the future.

 

[FreoRicci]

Ok I have NFI who’s fit or not (neither does S&C amiright amiright) but here’s my changes.

Out: Pearce, Hamling, Watson, Acres
In: Darcy, Chapman, Duman, Thomas

Colyer and Giro swap places. Conca to the midfield rotation.

Close, but no Thomas. Maybe in a month or so. Valente probably will get a look before him.
Don’t think Acres will be dropped. ‘Experienced’ and all that.

 

[mcpharlap]

I am very worried we will be 0-2 come this time Sunday night. I don't really rate GWS very highly but my optimism for a ok to good season ended last Saturday afternoon. I just hope we have had a good week on the training track and hopefully managed to improve our skill levels.

 

[Purple Madness]

I am very worried we will be 0-2 come this time Sunday night. I don't really rate GWS very highly but my optimism for a ok to good season ended last Saturday afternoon. I just hope we have had a good week on the training track and hopefully managed to improve our skill levels.

By that I hope you mean they all got a massive kick up the ass

 

[mcpharlap]

By that I hope you mean they all got a massive kick up the ass

Yes you said it perfectly purple.

 

[Nodgey]

Close, but no Thomas. Maybe in a month or so. Valente probably will get a look before him.
Don’t think Acres will be dropped. ‘Experienced’ and all that.

Thomas was an emergency last week wasn’t he? So he must be close. And Acres deserves to be dropped regardless.

 

[pK75]

Thomas was an emergency last week wasn’t he? So he must be close. And Acres deserves to be dropped regardless.

With the fluff piece on the freo website about Chapman getting his debut, I’d say he is our only debutant this week.
Valente and Thomas will have to wait.
out: Pearce,Hamling, Henry, Colyer
In: Darcy, Chapman, Frederick, Giro