Unofficial Preview Changes v Geelong (Preliminary Final)

[Nathan Barley]

Yes. We'd like to think that playing against the Giants' on ball brigade would be a good tune up for this. Geelong do it slightly differently tho in that their method of clearing congestion is a little more brutal. It's all about gaining territory out the front, regardless of whether it's with ball in hand, or simply indiscriminate handballs or kicks forward into space. It worked a treat against Port, yet it also has echoes of wet weather footy oddly enough, and with showers on the horizon on Saturday the weather may play into Geelong's hands.

So it will be interesting to see how we prepare for that. Do we instruct our half backs to stay defensive side of stoppage/congestion, to reduce the success of those indiscriminate clearances by Geelong? If we set up like that, Geelong may take advantage of their overload at the source by simply handballing their way through. So then it becomes a question as to whether our midfielders are able to adequately pressure those first couple of disposals.

Do we simply trust our skinny side winger to play this anchor role at the back of the stoppage? If so, it may limit our ability to send someone like Berry to Dangerfield (more on this below).

Or do we bring up a half forward to the contest to offset our instructions to our half backs to not overcommit around the ball in midfield? If we do that, it will open up opportunities for Tom Stewart to get himself free behind the ball and wreak havoc as he did in our 2022 prelim.

I think Plan A needs to be a one on one approach, at least to start, and back ourselves in to win contests. If that fails, Plan B I think would be to hold our half backs a little deeper, anticipating their surge disposals out of congestion, and trust our pressure at the source to disrupt their attempts to chain out using their outnumber.

I don't think we can afford to bring up a half forward to stoppages. To me this would be an absolute last resort, would play into Geelong's hands in allowing Stewart to get loose behind the ball, thus requiring us to try to chain out of congestion by hand, inviting Geelong's pressure which has been excellent overall this season. So this is Plan C for me. In fact it's probably Plan D, with daylight in between.

(It looks like Saturday's forecast has improved since I checked earlier in the week. The showers that were originally forecast for game time are now expected on Friday night and Sunday morning/lunch time.)

With regards to matchups, we simply cannot allow Tom Stewart to run around doing what he likes as we did 2 years ago. So I'm starting Cal Ah Chee on him, in a pretty tight role as he managed on Lachie Whitfield.

Geelong may counter that by starting Stewart in the middle or on a wing. If on a wing, we send Berry to him and make his life as miserable as possible. Stewart will try to drift back into defence, while their 6th "defender" becomes another midfielder. Ideally when this happens we want to try to hand over from Berry to Ah Chee.

Meanwhile I think our Plan A is for Dunkley to go head to head with Dangerfield. But if Stewart starts in the midfield, I'm breaking that matchup, sending Dunkley to him, and Berry comes into the centre square to take Dangerfield. Then when Stewart drifts back into defence, ideally Dunkley changes with Ah Chee, but even if that's not possible in the moment, happy for Dunkley to play as a 6th forward with overhead marking capacity, while our 6th forward (Bailey/Rayner/Ashcroft) drifts up to the midfield.

This means we run the risk of a one paced starting 3 of Berry, Dunkley and Neale. I'm combating this by instructing Oscar to thump the ball forward of the clearance wherever possible, creating opportunities for our half forwards, while also negating the impact of Geelong's. He'll have a height advantage on both Stanley and Neale, so we should get opportunities to do this.

With any other starting 3 I'm happy for Oscar to be a little more judicious with his tap work. Either way the ruck battle will be a huge challenge with Oscar likely to be double teamed, yet it's one we will have to win to be any chance in my opinion. Another reason why I'd be happy for Oscar to belt the ball clear: it reduces the likelihood of repeat stoppages, which may wear Oscar out over the course of the game.

Our guys in total covered 309kms on Saturday, our highest tally this season by quite a margin, so how much do we have left in the tank? Ultimately, I think probably the best, and potentially the only, way to win on Saturday, will be to start exceptionally well, take literally all of our chances, unbalance Geelong, force them to throw all their pre-game planning out the window and resort to a plan b of their own.

Either way we simply cannot afford to let them to run around doing what they want, which is exactly what happened 2 years ago, when we knew what was coming and we let them do it anyway.

Is Tom Stewart that big a threat at clearances that we would send Dunks to him?

 

[Gadzorks]

No pressure on young Will

To be honest, I think he eats that kind of pressure for breakfast as a good start to the day. Then he asks for a second helping.

 

[Perrip]

Is Tom Stewart that big a threat at clearances that we would send Dunks to him?

Pretty sure Gold Coast specifically tagged him to shut him down when they played the Cats.

 

[Surly Boy]

No pressure on young Will

He does seem to welcome it and wants to perform to a high standard under pressure.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Pretty sure Gold Coast specifically tagged him to shut him down when they played the Cats.

Sure but that's not really Dunks game

 

[Grasshopper17]

so far we've managed to reverse the home and away season trend in finals.

Carlton - lost OR, won EF
GWS - lost twice in home n away, won SF
Geelong - lost in that wet game which we didn't adjust well, waiting to see what happens in PF

That pattern certainly bodes poorly should we make the Grand Final...

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

That pattern certainly bodes poorly should we make the Grand Final...

Unless of course we smash Sydney instead of winning by a point.

 

[mpal6]

That pattern certainly bodes poorly should we make the Grand Final...

I'll find something else if we get to Grand final against Sydney. Like the one below

Fagan in finals :
before semi-win : 13 played 6 wins 7 losses
after semi-win: 14 played 7 wins 7 losses (ledger evened)

before prelim: 3 played 1 win 2 losses
(hopefully) after a prelim win: 4 played 2 wins 2 losses (ledger evened)

grand final: 1 played 0 win 1 loss
even the ledger in grand final too hopefully !

 

[Tom14]

I've been watching/listening to a lot of preview content and most of it is just spectacularly wrong on basic facts?

Several different ones have mentioned Logan Morris either being 'goalless again' or 'always being subbed out' ... Logan's been subbed out twice this year (against the Dees, last week) and obviously kicked 2.1 in the first final.

Also talk that all our forwards bar Daniher are out of form, which is just incorrect. Eric's down, and Cam was quiet v GWS. Kai and Cal have been consistently good, and Charlie has been kicking goals without getting a bag.

Basically all the commentary has been about what we got wrong in the semi-final, and which of our players have been poor, not at all asking the question of how we managed to win.

I get we've played finals for 6 years and opinions are baked in at this point, but it is striking compared to the reception of how we played last year.

 

[mpal6]

I've been watching/listening to a lot of preview content and most of it is just spectacularly wrong on basic facts?

Several different ones have mentioned Logan Morris either being 'goalless again' or 'always being subbed out' ... Logan's been subbed out twice this year (against the Dees, last week) and obviously kicked 2.1 in the first final.

Also talk that all our forwards bar Daniher are out of form, which is just incorrect. Eric's down, and Cam was quiet v GWS. Kai and Cal have been consistently good, and Charlie has been kicking goals without getting a bag.

Basically all the commentary has been about what we got wrong in the semi-final, and which of our players have been poor, not at all asking the question of how we managed to win.

I get we've played finals for 6 years and opinions are baked in at this point, but it is striking compared to the reception of how we played last year.

I'm perfectly fine with them nitpicking as long as they don't bother with us for 2 more games. Keep the analysis going, happy to be underdogs

 

[bungalow_bill]

I didn’t write it. I’d love to see this though. Fingers crossed.

The mighty Pumba will destroy the Cats!

Dusty Martin looks on in awe

 

[bungalow_bill]

Pretty sure Gold Coast specifically tagged him to shut him down when they played the Cats.

Pretty sure I read a stat somewhere and may have already posted it. That every time Stewart has been tagged the Cats lost.

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

Pretty sure I read a stat somewhere and may have already posted it. That every time Stewart has been tagged the Cats lost.

Huge if true

 

[Perrip]

Pretty sure I read a stat somewhere and may have already posted it. That every time Stewart has been tagged the Cats lost.

0-6 v 12-2: The stats that suggest Geelong should be worried if Stewart is tagged in finals

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne revealed that Geelong are 0-6 when teams have sent a stopper [to Stewart]. In the 14 games that he's been allowed to roam free, the Cats are 12-2.

 

[Nathan Barley]

0-6 v 12-2: The stats that suggest Geelong should be worried if Stewart is tagged in finals

I wonder how many of those 12 wins was just an unsuccessful tagging job

Hopefully they play him on Charlie like they did a few years ago when Charlie kicked abag

 

[McIvor]

I've been watching/listening to a lot of preview content and most of it is just spectacularly wrong on basic facts?

Several different ones have mentioned Logan Morris either being 'goalless again' or 'always being subbed out' ... Logan's been subbed out twice this year (against the Dees, last week) and obviously kicked 2.1 in the first final.

Also talk that all our forwards bar Daniher are out of form, which is just incorrect. Eric's down, and Cam was quiet v GWS. Kai and Cal have been consistently good, and Charlie has been kicking goals without getting a bag.

Basically all the commentary has been about what we got wrong in the semi-final, and which of our players have been poor, not at all asking the question of how we managed to win.

I get we've played finals for 6 years and opinions are baked in at this point, but it is striking compared to the reception of how we played last year.

Agreed, its like they barely watch the Lions and just follow the bandwagon of us being an easy target to suit their negactive narrative.

On Logan; he's been subbed out 3 times; the two times you said and also against West Coast in Perth when Brucey came on.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I'm not reading a lot into our chances this week per se but Saturday night reminded me of the PF win against the Swans in 2003 when we were done like a dinner and totally turned it around.

Wins like that can really galvanise a group as long as too many of them aren't physically cooked.

Interestingly, the final margin in that 2003 Prelim?

44 points.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Think he was still playing back. Wilmot went to the wing. Just came forward with his player as far as I could see and I was at the game.

He's been interviewed a couple of times since and said he was basically just trying to drag his opponent out of his comfort zone. Worked I guess

 

[Grasshopper17]

So now we're a slow starting team?

I think grasshopper has some percentages to show you

Ask and you shall receive

 

[FootyLad0]

Yes. We'd like to think that playing against the Giants' on ball brigade would be a good tune up for this. Geelong do it slightly differently tho in that their method of clearing congestion is a little more brutal. It's all about gaining territory out the front, regardless of whether it's with ball in hand, or simply indiscriminate handballs or kicks forward into space. It worked a treat against Port, yet it also has echoes of wet weather footy oddly enough, and with showers on the horizon on Saturday the weather may play into Geelong's hands.

So it will be interesting to see how we prepare for that. Do we instruct our half backs to stay defensive side of stoppage/congestion, to reduce the success of those indiscriminate clearances by Geelong? If we set up like that, Geelong may take advantage of their overload at the source by simply handballing their way through. So then it becomes a question as to whether our midfielders are able to adequately pressure those first couple of disposals.

Do we simply trust our skinny side winger to play this anchor role at the back of the stoppage? If so, it may limit our ability to send someone like Berry to Dangerfield (more on this below).

Or do we bring up a half forward to the contest to offset our instructions to our half backs to not overcommit around the ball in midfield? If we do that, it will open up opportunities for Tom Stewart to get himself free behind the ball and wreak havoc as he did in our 2022 prelim.

I think Plan A needs to be a one on one approach, at least to start, and back ourselves in to win contests. If that fails, Plan B I think would be to hold our half backs a little deeper, anticipating their surge disposals out of congestion, and trust our pressure at the source to disrupt their attempts to chain out using their outnumber.

I don't think we can afford to bring up a half forward to stoppages. To me this would be an absolute last resort, would play into Geelong's hands in allowing Stewart to get loose behind the ball, thus requiring us to try to chain out of congestion by hand, inviting Geelong's pressure which has been excellent overall this season. So this is Plan C for me. In fact it's probably Plan D, with daylight in between.

(It looks like Saturday's forecast has improved since I checked earlier in the week. The showers that were originally forecast for game time are now expected on Friday night and Sunday morning/lunch time.)

With regards to matchups, we simply cannot allow Tom Stewart to run around doing what he likes as we did 2 years ago. So I'm starting Cal Ah Chee on him, in a pretty tight role as he managed on Lachie Whitfield.

Geelong may counter that by starting Stewart in the middle or on a wing. If on a wing, we send Berry to him and make his life as miserable as possible. Stewart will try to drift back into defence, while their 6th "defender" becomes another midfielder. Ideally when this happens we want to try to hand over from Berry to Ah Chee.

Meanwhile I think our Plan A is for Dunkley to go head to head with Dangerfield. But if Stewart starts in the midfield, I'm breaking that matchup, sending Dunkley to him, and Berry comes into the centre square to take Dangerfield. Then when Stewart drifts back into defence, ideally Dunkley changes with Ah Chee, but even if that's not possible in the moment, happy for Dunkley to play as a 6th forward with overhead marking capacity, while our 6th forward (Bailey/Rayner/Ashcroft) drifts up to the midfield.

This means we run the risk of a one paced starting 3 of Berry, Dunkley and Neale. I'm combating this by instructing Oscar to thump the ball forward of the clearance wherever possible, creating opportunities for our half forwards, while also negating the impact of Geelong's. He'll have a height advantage on both Stanley and Neale, so we should get opportunities to do this.

With any other starting 3 I'm happy for Oscar to be a little more judicious with his tap work. Either way the ruck battle will be a huge challenge with Oscar likely to be double teamed, yet it's one we will have to win to be any chance in my opinion. Another reason why I'd be happy for Oscar to belt the ball clear: it reduces the likelihood of repeat stoppages, which may wear Oscar out over the course of the game.

Our guys in total covered 309kms on Saturday, our highest tally this season by quite a margin, so how much do we have left in the tank? Ultimately, I think probably the best, and potentially the only, way to win on Saturday, will be to start exceptionally well, take literally all of our chances, unbalance Geelong, force them to throw all their pre-game planning out the window and resort to a plan b of their own.

Either way we simply cannot afford to let them to run around doing what they want, which is exactly what happened 2 years ago, when we knew what was coming and we let them do it anyway.

Fantastic breakdown, it’s amazing how much preplanning goes into games like these but that’s why these are 2 of the 4 remaining teams left. Sticking to structure and being adaptable if things aren’t working.

The big question is for the Cats, if SDK comes in (likely) that adds another person to take ruck contests so do we drop Stanley when he played well against Sweet? Oscar will body TF out of SDK so it seems more likely Stanley stays in to compete with Big O.

This year we’ve used Stanley on and off as he’s basically on the verge of retirement and then swapped him with Big Boy Toby Conway every second game or so (out injured but Rucked last time Lions and Cats played)

Now Scotty has gone with a combo at other times of the season of SDK/Blicavs as they essentially play as extra mids. So does SDK come in as a Ruck? Or as a KPD? Or does he come in at all?

With Joey D, Hipwood, Morris all likely to play, you’d figure Cats will want to have talls to match so SDK, Jack Henry and Kolo.

Think Cats will be most worried about Lions midfield. Neale, Dunkley, McCluggage, Berry, Ashcroft, Rayner, Bailey is an insanely good core.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Just bought tickets to the game... never seen an in person Lions win at the MCG. Currently on a 3 game losing streak for going to the MGC (Hawks loss in 2023, 2023 GF and Pies this year). Here's hoping 4th time lucky!

Anyone else in Q34?

 

[Grasshopper17]

I want our first half against Carlton and our last quarter against the Giants and our third quarter can look after itself

So if we can manage to only lose our 3rd quarter by 77 points, we should be fine

 

[Grasshopper17]

Q55 for us
Five of us
Two coming from Brisbane me and a member that sits next to me.
Meeting up with three tigers supporters who are barracking for us against the cats. They’ll all be in lions gear too.

What's the general vibe around Melbourne? Many neutrals expected at the game? What will be the split in support I wonder...

 

[Grasshopper17]

Last game we got well beaten by the Cats at home in the wet. Score 37-63.
So is there any positives or changes from that game.
We played terrible footy in R6 v Cats, & R7 v Giants. Rounds 1-5 also very inconsistent.

Cats had 18 shots on goal to our 17.

Playing that game: McCarthy, Tunstill, Gardiner & Lyons was sub
Missing that game: Bailey, Ashcroft, Morris & McKenna sub last week. All likely named again

A quick look at the Cats from last meeting
Conway (Ruck) & O'Connor (tagged Lockie) played in R 7 but now injured and both out for the season.
Did not play R 7 but played in Cats QF game: Mannah, Stanley & Neale.

Oscar subbed out in the 2nd quarter with concussion 30% TOG. Jo full time ruck for the last half 97% TOG.
Cats Tom Stewart 46% TOG also subbed out at half time also with concussion.

Lions goalless that day: Daniher, Cameron, Hippy, Gardiner, Lohmann & Ah Chee. No repeat of that, i hope.

Oscar was playing one of his better games until he was k'o'd.

That was one positive from the game. In fact that may have been the only positive from that game!

OK I lie. Bez also kicked a nice set shot goal.

 

[Grasshopper17]

If Stewart plays for the cats, please don't do what we did re our last final against them at the G. We allowed him to roam around the half back line on his own and he just controlled things early on when the game was set up. We seem too always, or majority of times allow opposition to play a loose man in our forward line but we can't allow Stewart to play that role if he plays this week.

Hopefully the wider expanses of the MCG allow us to play our kick-mark game for at least part of the game this Saturday, allowing us to bypass any zone defence or spare man setup they put in place.