Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[Ketchup]

From the official bigfooty phantom draft:

My selection as the Collingwood recruiter was...

30 Collingwood - Willem Drew

*Can't wipe the dopey smile off my face getting my guy here.

Drew could be the best midfielders in this draft class with his competitiveness and aggression on another level - think Jack Viney, but there is 188cm of him.

There was no other consideration at this choice. Drew was my clear best available and someone I rate top 10 power rankings.

His impact this year in the TAC Cup through the midfield also in my view was without equal, surpassing that of teammate Hugh McCluggage and everyone else.

From a Collingwood perspective while the club have more inside midfielders than they need, with Swan, Ball, D.Thomas and Beams all gone in as many years and with Pendlebury drawing towards 30, the next generation star midfielders need to come in.

In combination with Pendlebury, Treloar, Sidebottom and De Goey, Drew can add to that midfield group and make it powerful again and turn the clubs clearance and centre clearance differential around and turn it from weakness into strength.

*From my October power rankings not to waste any time:
Willem Drew (VIC)
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 188cm, 78kg
Recruited from: North Ballarat Rebels
Plays like: Jack Ziebell
Projected draft range: second to third round
Rated last month: 10
Rationale behind ranking/change of ranking: Arguably matched if not exceed the impact of teammate McCluggage through the TAC Cup finals. Has had an outstanding season through the midfield with his contested-ball winning, aggression at the ball and tackling are as good as any in this draft.
Strengths:
- Stoppage specialist
- Wins first possession at stoppages
- Contested-ball winning
- Aggressive tackler
- Clean below knees
- Courage to win 50/50 ball without fear of getting hurt
- Strength
- Capable mark overhead
- Scoreboard impact
- Acceleration
- Versatility to play forward or back as required
- Reads flight well and takes intercept marks
- Late season has started to run to better spots on the outside to become a more frequent and useful link player
- Strength of TAC Cup performances
Weaknesses:
- Limited opportunities through midfield during the under-18 championships and end-of-season Under-18 All Stars match leaves him slightly unproven against best competition in the country
- Limited outside hurt factor as an infrequent linebreaker with an only average kick
- Endurance
- From stoppages he rushes kicks, too often bombing long to a general area near one of his teammates rather than taking time to find an open target by foot

You had me at Jack Viney. I love that kid.

 

[Knightmare]

many will not be happy with that pick, mainly because they think we need tall's not
mid fielder's.
but he does sound pretty good.

A quality key position player at each end I agree is top of the needs list.

In saying that there isn't a key position player in this draft I'm in love with the game of - and I'm talking from pick 1 onwards. From pick 30 onwards, with the good KPPs generally going first round, it's probably not a great year to be going for KPPs unless absolutely sold on someone, which I'm not.

 

[Knightmare]

You had me at Jack Viney. I love that kid.

If you love Viney, you'd love Drew.

He's one of those guys teammates stand taller playing alongside and fear playing against.

He's one of those guys who will take it up to anyone.

Game one at AFL level Shane Mumford could try to bowl him over and Drew would be right up and giving it back to him just as good as he received it.

He's made of the right stuff.

 

[Apex36]

You passed on Daicos @ 35 in the BF phantom. I know it's not real, but I can't help feeling like I want to punch you in the face.


No offence.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

From the official bigfooty phantom draft:

My selection as the Collingwood recruiter was...

30 Collingwood - Willem Drew

*Can't wipe the dopey smile off my face getting my guy here.

Drew could be the best midfielders in this draft class with his competitiveness and aggression on another level - think Jack Viney, but there is 188cm of him.

There was no other consideration at this choice. Drew was my clear best available and someone I rate top 10 power rankings.

His impact this year in the TAC Cup through the midfield also in my view was without equal, surpassing that of teammate Hugh McCluggage and everyone else.

From a Collingwood perspective while the club have more inside midfielders than they need, with Swan, Ball, D.Thomas and Beams all gone in as many years and with Pendlebury drawing towards 30, the next generation star midfielders need to come in.

In combination with Pendlebury, Treloar, Sidebottom and De Goey, Drew can add to that midfield group and make it powerful again and turn the clubs clearance and centre clearance differential around and turn it from weakness into strength.

*From my October power rankings not to waste any time:
Willem Drew (VIC)
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 188cm, 78kg
Recruited from: North Ballarat Rebels
Plays like: Jack Ziebell
Projected draft range: second to third round
Rated last month: 10
Rationale behind ranking/change of ranking: Arguably matched if not exceed the impact of teammate McCluggage through the TAC Cup finals. Has had an outstanding season through the midfield with his contested-ball winning, aggression at the ball and tackling are as good as any in this draft.
Strengths:
- Stoppage specialist
- Wins first possession at stoppages
- Contested-ball winning
- Aggressive tackler
- Clean below knees
- Courage to win 50/50 ball without fear of getting hurt
- Strength
- Capable mark overhead
- Scoreboard impact
- Acceleration
- Versatility to play forward or back as required
- Reads flight well and takes intercept marks
- Late season has started to run to better spots on the outside to become a more frequent and useful link player
- Strength of TAC Cup performances
Weaknesses:
- Limited opportunities through midfield during the under-18 championships and end-of-season Under-18 All Stars match leaves him slightly unproven against best competition in the country
- Limited outside hurt factor as an infrequent linebreaker with an only average kick
- Endurance
- From stoppages he rushes kicks, too often bombing long to a general area near one of his teammates rather than taking time to find an open target by foot

Simple:
Get him.

A top line mid at 188 cm what's not to like.

BETTER GET A GUN than worry about a frost like bigger defender

 

[Knightmare]

You passed on Daicos @ 35 in the BF phantom. I know it's not real, but I can't help feeling like I want to punch you in the face.

No offence.

I'm not one for the romanticism of taking father sons.

I take the best player there with a view to maximising the quality of talent gained through the draft.

35 is too high for Daicos. Too small and outside. Doesn't win his own ball with his numbers not up to the standard they need to be. Lacks hardness. Has some talent, but not his father with his kicking sometimes lacking consistency.

I'm also planning to pass on Callum Brown to ensure I get the players I'm targeting. He's a better ball winner by comparison to Daicos with better numbers but again sub 180cm, no x-factor and in his case skills lacking.

I don't rate either all that highly and will back myself in to score better players.

 

[loki04]

So basically J.Caddy ugh.


Think we should just play 22 inside mids who have scatter gun disposal.

Let the other teams worry about crazy stuff like team balance quality disposal and decision making, elusive play making goal kickers who know how to be front and center of the fwds, kpd defenders with quality disosal with the ability to peel or shut down. Quality outside mids who have high hurt factor and run the lines. Who'd want that in their team.

 

[Knightmare]

So basically J.Caddy ugh.

Think we should just play 22 inside mids who have scatter gun disposal.

Let the other teams worry about crazy stuff like team balance quality disposal and decision making, elusive play making goal kickers who know how to be front and center of the fwds, kpd defenders with quality disosal with the ability to peel or shut down. Quality outside mids who have high hurt factor and run the lines. Who'd want that in their team.

Or trade Greenwood, Crisp, Blair, J.Thomas etc at the end of next year and get other pieces that better fill list needs in return.

If the choice was Matt Priddis at pick 30 or a group of players not clearly of AFL standard. I'd maximise the value and get the guy who will be good.

I've always looked at the draft as being when you maximise the value gained, with the trade periods and free agency where you need all your list needs.

As required there can be some flexibility in the rookie draft to fill some list needs depending on whether any other remaining players project to become best 22 players.

But otherwise I'd like to see needs met before the draft. We haven't done that well this offseason creating list needs that we didn't have coming into this offseason. But our situation now is what it is.

 

[Knightmare]

Onto my second selection:

Still a fair bit of value left with Kerr, Sproule, Cumming, Allison, Poholke and Jarman surprisingly still available.

None the less I got my guy. Ben Ronke is can be what Collingwood wanted Nathan Freeman to be. He likely starts his career on a forward flank where he can hit the scoreboard in bunches then earn a position in the midfield and rotate forward as required.

What sells me on him is his combination of being a high % contested ball winner and having super acceleration with his 20m sprint time as good as any in this draft and that acceleration being used effectively in game to burst away from stoppages. He showed substantial improvement over the course of the season and his second half of the season (from July onwards) was among the best in the TAC Cup.

#46 Collingwood - Ben Ronke (VIC)
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 181cm, 75kg
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Plays like: Luke Shuey
Projected draft range: late/rookie
Rated last month: unrated
Rationale behind ranking/change of ranking: Excellent second half to the TAC Cup season where strong production and explosive speed and contested-ball winning stood out. Rapid rate of improvement demonstrated. Finished in Calder's best in his last seven games and was listed as Calder's best player in five of his last six games. Late season he played two VFL games and at that level also held his own.
Strengths:
- Contested-ball winning
- Wins high proportion of ball in the contest
- Wins first possession at stoppages
- Explosive acceleration
- Breaks away from stoppages
- Tackling - Chase-down tackling
- Energy around the contest
- Gives second and third efforts
- Athleticism
- Rate of improvement and standard of performance through second half of season
- Held his own against VFL standard competition
- Scoreboard impact (19 goals from 15 TAC Cup games and two goals from two VFL games)
- Kicks goals from stoppages and on the move
- Can play forward
Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent footskills
- Does not find much easy outside ball

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Lol at drafting two inside midfielders with the first 2 picks in the phantom draft. And both players are average kicks.

Just ****ing terrible given the lack of key position players on our list. You do realise we drafted Wills and Sier last year as inside midfielders as well as trading 2 picks for Treloar. And also have De Goey who can't get a game in the midfield.

 

[Knightmare]

Lol at drafting two inside midfielders.

Just ******* terrible given the lack of key position players on our list. You do realise we drafted Wills and Sier last year as inside midfielders as well as trading 2 picks for Treloar. And also have De Goey who can't get a game in the midfield.

As key position players I could have gone with Patrick Kerr who is a strong marking forward. But he's slow and has arguably the worst agility of anyone in this draft class.

Or I could have gone with Sproule who is tall and has excellent endurance. But going for someone so soft, outside and allergic to the getting hit, I couldn't bring myself to select either.

There is no appropriate key position solutions this year anywhere in this draft, including inside the top 10.

I have a key position player in mind with my final selections as a needs filler who will provide immediate help. That choice will please fans.

If I get the five players I am anticipating/hoping for with each selection (I'm 2/2 so far) then that group will bring diversity and a good balance to our list, despite what it may seem with two inside mids early.

 

[Quicky]

Honestly I think an inside midfielder/clearance specialist is indeed a need for us. We really need someone who can jump into contests to allow Treloar/Sidebottom/Pendlebury to exploit their attacking playstyles. All of them are at least decent in terms of clearances especially Treloar but none of them are exceptional.

Logic suggests you should pick KPP in a strong key position player year with a large supply driving down the prices (draft pick). Next year apparently is exceptional in that aspect.

Personally I'd draft best available with pick 28, if it's an inside midfielder like Jonty Scharenberg, Dylan Clarke then so be it. I think we can go for a highly speculative key defender like Cox will still be available at a later, but we really shoudn't draft a mediocre pllayer just because we are in deficiency in this area.

Adams is that player for us. I think we'd be getting a very unbalanced list if we hit an inside mid at that pick.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

As key position players I could have gone with Patrick Kerr who is a strong marking forward. But he's slow and has arguably the worst agility of anyone in this draft class.

Or I could have gone with Sproule who is tall and has excellent endurance. But going for someone so soft, outside and allergic to the getting hit, I couldn't bring myself to select either.

There is no appropriate key position solutions this year anywhere in this draft, including inside the top 10.

I have a key position player in mind with my final selections as a needs filler who will provide immediate help. That choice will please fans.

If I get the five players I am anticipating/hoping for with each selection (I'm 2/2 so far) then that group will bring diversity and a good balance to our list, despite what it may seem with two inside mids early.

Brennan Cox was available at pick 30

 

[Knightmare]

Adams is that player for us. I think we'd be getting a very unbalanced list if we hit an inside mid at that pick.

Adams is a fine component but has never had 100+ clearances in a season, never more than 90+ tackles in a season, never more than 500 disposals in a season. They're not premium midfield numbers.

I see Adams being a rotational inside/outside mid who also plays minutes down back, as a tier 2 mid. He hasn't even reached an average of 100+ supercoach points in a season, with your 105+ ppg scorers your genuine premium midfielders to give a quantifyable - what the expectation is to be a top tier midfielder.

Brennan Cox was available at pick 30

Don't rate Cox inside my top 30. Would not select personally.

I'm considering a key defender with my final choice who if there is someone I rate ahead of Cox.

 

[Knightmare]

My next selection (3/3 players going to plan so far):

# 52 Collingwood - Lachlan Tiziani

Three selections, three high level performers from the TAC Cup. Tiziani from mid June onwards was the clear premier goal kicker in the TAC Cup and was the number one option in a front half also containing the assumed first selected key forward Todd Marshall, along with Esava Ratugolea and Zachary Sproule who both have played through the front half at times.

He gives Collingwood variety in the front half and is a genuine forward 50m talent who provides heavy scoreboard impact with 32 goals from his last nine games and has all the tricks around goal you'd want to compliment the existing forward group.

Lachlan Tiziani (NSW/ACT)
Best position: General forward
Height, weight: 189cm, 82kg
Recruited from: Murray Bushrangers
Plays like: Daniel Menzel
Projected draft range: late/rookie
Rated last month: Unrated
Rationale behind ranking/change of ranking: Has earned his way onto draft board on the back of strong second half to the season, with a TAC Cup-leading 32 goals in his last nine games.
Strengths:
- Scoreboard impact (32 goals in last nine games for the season)
- Finishing around goal
- Balance between marking and ground level work
- Clean at ground level
- Gets to right positions to crumb effectively
- Genuine forward 50m marking target
- Strong mark overhead
- Uses body well in one-on-one marking contests
- Marking threat on the lead
- Contested marking
- Keeps his feet in the contest
- Balanced
- High leap
- Acceleration
- Agility
- Versatility to play down back or midfield if required
Weaknesses:
- Low volume accumulator when used through midfield
- Contested-ball winning
- Forward pressure
- Endurance

 

[Knightmare]

I don't normally share links to my ESPN articles in this thread, but I expect this will better explain my draft behaviour and give some better insight into the draft more broadly from a historical context, given the topic of conversation:

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

 

[Apex36]

Adams is a fine component but has never had 100+ clearances in a season, never more than 90+ tackles in a season, never more than 500 disposals in a season. They're not premium midfield numbers.

I see Adams being a rotational inside/outside mid who also plays minutes down back, as a tier 2 mid. He hasn't even reached an average of 100+ supercoach points in a season, with your 105+ ppg scorers your genuine premium midfielders to give a quantifyable - what the expectation is to be a top tier midfielder.



Don't rate Cox inside my top 30. Would not select personally.

I'm considering a key defender with my final choice who if there is someone I rate ahead of Cox.

Adams averaged 4.7 clearances over 14 games this year. In a full season of 24 games that's 114 clearances. He averaged 27.7 disposals. Over a full season that's 665 disposals. 4.4 tackles per game. Over a full season that's 105 tackles. He averaged 97 SuperCoach points, 3 under your 100 benchmark, despite his points average being diluted from having to leave the field early injured twice this year. His averages are all well over your supposed 'premium' midfield numbers yet you're refusing to acknowledge it because his year was injury interrupted and it doesn't suit your rhetoric.

 

[pugsville]

I don't normally share links to my ESPN articles in this thread, but I expect this will better explain my draft behaviour and give some better insight into the draft more broadly from a historical context, given the topic of conversation:

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

thanks KM always a good read. really appreciate the work you have done over the years.

 

[TradeDraft]

I'm not one for the romanticism of taking father sons.

I take the best player there with a view to maximising the quality of talent gained through the draft.

35 is too high for Daicos. Too small and outside. Doesn't win his own ball with his numbers not up to the standard they need to be. Lacks hardness. Has some talent, but not his father with his kicking sometimes lacking consistency.

I'm also planning to pass on Callum Brown to ensure I get the players I'm targeting. He's a better ball winner by comparison to Daicos with better numbers but again sub 180cm, no x-factor and in his case skills lacking.

I don't rate either all that highly and will back myself in to score better players.

and Hine is the Same. He won't take a Father/Son above what he Rates him just because of the Romance. Hine would not give a Stuff about the Romance

 

[Knightmare]

Adams averaged 4.7 clearances over 14 games this year. In a full season of 24 games that's 114 clearances. He averaged 27.7 disposals. Over a full season that's 665 disposals. 4.4 tackles per game. Over a full season that's 105 tackles. He averaged 97 SuperCoach points, 3 under your 100 benchmark, despite his points average being diluted from having to leave the field early injured twice this year. His averages are all well over your supposed 'premium' midfield numbers yet you're refusing to acknowledge it because his year was injury interrupted and it doesn't suit your rhetoric.

105+ is my expectation of premium midfielders as per my previous post, not 100.

Some plays are sub 100 every year. Others are 105+ every year.

Pendlebury is always there. Treloar has been the past three years and is there. Swan was always there. Sidebottom is every second year and is on that boarder of tier 1.

Those who fall short of this marker each year after certainly 24 (Adams is still a year away from this), that's probably that's who they are.

 

[Apex36]

105+ is my expectation of premium midfielders as per my previous post, not 100.

Some plays are sub 100 every year. Others are 105+ every year.

Pendlebury is always there. Treloar has been the past three years and is there. Swan was always there. Sidebottom is every second year and is on that boarder of tier 1.

Those who fall short of this marker each year after certainly 24 (Adams is still a year away from this), that's probably that's who they are.

Using a super conservative estimate, only adding 40 points to his season total (taken from the first Bulldogs game where he had 60 points to half time and then was injured), and adding nothing to the Essendon game or Bulldogs game where he played through injuries that then sidelined him for multiple weeks afterwards, his average bumps up to 100. It's really not a stretch to say he probably would have achieved a 105 average without injuries ruining his year. And as you've already stated, he's still only 23. It's not unreasonable to fully expect him to hit those targets next year barring injury given his consistent improvement year on year since joining Collingwood.

 

[mike123]

Adams is that player for us. I think we'd be getting a very unbalanced list if we hit an inside mid at that pick.

And think De Goey could be that player if he was given more midfield time.

 

[Prochard123]

Personally I think Adams has been extremely underwhelming clearance wise. He wasn't the contested beast I was expecting, and is more of an accumulator, or a weaker Dane Swan in terms of contested ball and without the goal kicking ability. Similar to Caddy, I think his ceiling is an above average B+ midfielder.

He is a good midfielder, but is outclassed by others in the league. Thank god he has developed a second position or else his future as an AFL midfielder does not look promising. I'm under the impression that we severely lost the Shaw deal, or our recruitment strategy had been very inconsistent. As much as I rate De Goey, taking him ahead of Wright/Lever/Durdin/Goddard when we already recruited Freeman, Adams, Crisp, Greenwood doesn't seem wise. It just makes the Shaw deal look even worse as it is proven how easily or cheap it can be to grab a young midfielder of Adams' calibre.

 

[Kappa]

If we take another bloody inside mid who can't kick with our 1st pick I give up hope with our recruiters.

Living off old reputations

 

[TradeDraft]

What is Jonty Scharenberg Clearnce Numbers Like?