List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion

[Finnishpie]

I wonder if the plan is to go the low cost money ball style players in this trade period in Hill, Frampton, Stocker etc (exception being McStay), then moving on Grundy, keeping our powder dry for one season before going hard at a couple of really notable superstar talents that are coming out of contract in 2023.

Matt Rowell
Noah Anderson

The interesting component for me is that we have Pendlebury and Howe, who you would think are on biggish money coming out of contract next season. Unclear if they would be looking to play on, but if they did, you would think it would be a similar situation to what Richmond are looking like they are able to do by opening up big money from Riewoldt/Cotchin continuing on virtually minimum type deals.

How good would it be adding one of those two to play alongside their old school footy mate in Nick Daicos for the next 10 years...

Rowe and Anderson aren't leaving Gold Coast for 10 years.

 

[manicpie]

So Richmond are giving a couple of their starts a pay cut, while our second year player Henry is asking for more money. If that's really the case then it's good bye Henry

 

[Rusty Beam]

The more I think about the possibility of Mitchell, the more I don’t mind it.

Has only one more year of his contract at $800k left, which supposedly the Hawks are keen to kick in a fair whack.

Surely he’s aware that his career is on the precipice and he’s not chasing a big pay day, just looking to extend his career.

If so, I wonder if something like $500k x 3 could get it done?

Assuming the Hawks kick in $300k next year, he effectively is a $400k player for us across that contract. Which is a bargain IMO.

Obviously his game would have to change in accordance with our new game style, but I’d back him and the coaches in.

 

[unplugged]

I think the first point that is worth making is you’re actually better off going to St Kevin’s old boys than you would be by going to Essendon, so Richmond is definitely the better option.

I think you’ve somewhat hit the nail on the head though, Richmond Is a smart club, they know what they need, they know when they need it and more importantly they know when they don’t, in the modern world of player movement I see clubs like them thriving and staying up for a long time. Clubs like St Kilda and Essendon who seemingly throw a lot of mediocre darts at the dart board hoping they hit are destined for prolonged period down the bottom.

It’s what gives me optimism with the Henry negotiations, the old Collingwood has buckled and given him what he wants by now, from the outside looks like we’re a lot more strategic but still need a couple more years to see if that’s correct or just a hunch

Yeah, look, it was definitely a stretch by me saying a player might see Essendon as an equal opportunity when it comes to future success. In fact, having written that just then, I am an absolute fool.

 

[unplugged]

Tom Mitchell. The old "if you wanna impress a chick do a helicopter kick"

 

[Quicky]

Moneyball used statistical analysis to overcome inherent bias and subjectivity by baseball decision makers. Specifically it identified that on-base and slugging percentage were better indicators of offensive success than batting average, stolen bases or whether the player looked the part. This allowed the first clubs to realise this to target players with these characteristics at far under market value. I'm not even sure that kind of analysis is possible in the AFL given the differences with Baseball, where Baseball is far more controlled, AFL more chaotic

I think Moneyball is the most misused term in this thread. If it's used to describe a fringe player, with poor stats and no form (McCartin prior to this season, Hill) it's being misused. It kinda fits if it's a player with strong stats being overlooked for reasons like age, they're slow, they play for a poor team (Mitchell); but even with that example you need to assume some of the stats are overlooked keys to success and that might be stretching it.

 

[neilk]

So Richmond are giving a couple of their starts a pay cut, while our second year player Henry is asking for more money. If that's really the case then it's good bye Henry

These "stars" are at the end of their careers and have earned millions over the years. Henry is just getting started out.

 

[manicpie]

These "stars" are at the end of their careers and have earned millions over the years. Henry is just getting started out.

I think that's the point

 

[AmericanMustard]

These "stars" are at the end of their careers and have earned millions over the years. Henry is just getting started out.

Starting to progress from one quarter of production to two next season?

 

[Apex36]

Any interest in Will Gould from Sydney? Been outstanding as a key position defender in the twos and looks like he hasn't been re-signed yet. Only reason he hasn't been given a chance in the ones appears to be because the Swans' back six are too good. Might relish a new chapter with another side? Stands at 191cm, age 21, 98kg...

- Will Gould

vfl.aflmstats.com

Not really sure an undersized key defender is an area of need. We already have one of those in Murphy.

 

[loki04]

Didn’t watch all the highlights.
Stopped after noticing non of his tackles were paid HTB.

He'll fit right in then. Lol

 

[cakewalk06]

So Richmond are giving a couple of their starts a pay cut, while our second year player Henry is asking for more money. If that's really the case then it's good bye Henry

Riewoldt is 47 years old and Cotchin 42. Of course they are getting lowballed. Irrelevant to Henry situation

 

[KinderSmock]

How much would Fiorini likely cost? A 3rd?

If that.

 

[KinderSmock]

Riewoldt is 47 years old and Cotchin 42. Of course they are getting lowballed. Irrelevant to Henry situation

Can't believe people wanted to sign Riewoldt at 47!

 

[ksardog]

Tom Mitchell. The old "if you wanna impress a chick do a helicopter kick"

still having flashbacks from when we recruited his dad, 600k a year and played 6 games for us before we shipped him off to Carlton
no thanks

 

[loki04]

Swans back 6 is mainly Moneyball players right now.

McCartin was struggling at saints not just because of concussion either, some player take time.

Stocker imo has a lot to offer similar style to Maynard.

 

[HFF]

Bolton should have a fair idea whether he's worth a 2nd chance.

This.
Perhaps he could be another Lipinski type scenario for us

 

[HFF]

The bit where he posted 100% gone or the bit where he said he was staying?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

His timeline of events and what was happening clearly has proven to be accurate

 

[domus]

Peter Moore left Cwood and won a Brownlow at Melbourne

And regretted leaving for the rest of his life.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Moneyball used statistical analysis to overcome inherent bias and subjectivity by baseball decision makers. Specifically it identified that on-base and slugging percentage were better indicators of offensive success than batting average, stolen bases or whether the player looked the part. This allowed the first clubs to realise this to target players with these characteristics at far under market value. I'm not even sure that kind of analysis is possible in the AFL given the differences with Baseball, where Baseball is far more controlled, AFL more chaotic

I think Moneyball is the most misused term in this thread. If it's used to describe a fringe player, with poor stats and no form (McCartin prior to this season, Hill) it's being misused. It kinda fits if it's a player with strong stats being overlooked for reasons like age, they're slow, they play for a poor team (Mitchell); but even with that example you need to assume some of the stats are overlooked keys to success and that might be stretching it.

Finally someone else said it. I get frustrated when people use 'Moneyball' as a description of the strategy to just get cheap players (even journalists do it).

If there was a Moneyball equivalent in the AFL it is Hawthorn. They identified early that kicking efficiency was one of the greatest KPI contributors to success, and that left footers generally had greater kicking efficiency. So they double down on left footers with good footskills, and became a dominant dynasty.

 

[Jelly Bean]

So Grundy most likely going to Melbourne... What do we think they can honestly offer us in trade value?

 

[loki04]

Ahh well, at least Liam Stocker will have a family tree to wrap around him. I think he'll get picked up but we don't need him when Fiorini is better.

Imo Stocker is actually the better of the 2, but you can get both Fiorini for a 3rd rounder and Stocker as a DFA.

Both better then much of our VFL listed players.

At worse they both provide AFL quality depth the better yours 2s are the more pressure on the ones and better they tend to be.

 

[LuckyLee]

Why would we give Grundy to the Hawks for Mitchell when we can get Mitchell for a 3rd rounder? That's not win for us at all, it's a stitch-up.

We’re probably only going to get a 2nd rounder for Grundy from any other club and also a bill for 5x $300K. Trade him to Hawks in return for Mitchell, their salaries square off and perhaps we get their 2nd rounder in a swap for our third. And we get vital centre clearance support/coverage for injury-probe Adams. That’s a better deal than we’ll get trading Grundy independently. That path will result in another Treloar-like forced sale and you’ll be on here screaming loudly that we got screwed over.


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[Masked Magician]

So Grundy most likely going to Melbourne... What do we think they can honestly offer us in trade value?

Probably depends on what we are willing to chip in.

I'd say 250k from our end nets us a late first rounder. I would like their future first round pick.

We may need to kick back a third rounder this year or next their way.

 

[Rohan25]

still having flashbacks from when we recruited his dad, 600k a year and played 6 games for us before we shipped him off to Carlton
no thanks

It wasn’t that bad, $335K *3 years. He was the first “Million dollar man” in the competition. Played 13 games with us before we released him.

But yeah it was still pretty bad though.