List Mgmt. Collingwood Trade and FA

[Scodog10]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/trade-hq/afl-trade-news-live-updates-and-news-from-day-2-of-afl-trade-period/live-coverage/eba2e2a221ef14e27694d86eb092f92d

This is the stuff of fantasy. GC potentially threatening to let Dan Houston decide whether they recruit John Noble as a tactic

 

[sr36]

Niall's article was odd. He was saying that old teams other than Geelong have plummeted when veterans retired. And he was saying we're taking a big risk by trading out our draft picks.

But who are these teams who've stayed up through the draft? Where's the risk?
We're an old team. The expectation should be a fall unless we can pull off what the Cats did post 2011.

And like Geelong we're in a position to do so, I think.

The Cats stayed up where others couldn't for a variety of reasons:

Despite their age they had a young superstar at the beginning of his career. Tick

Player longevity increased - that's not going to change.

Theyre a bit of a unique club with a recruiting advantage due to location. Our advantage is different but all those big games at the G is an undoubted advantage.

I reckon our strategy is great. Get Houston and with the Perryman and Schultz additions we will have upgraded 2023 Pendles, Sidey and Adams. I don't see why we won't be able to continue to top up and stay in the window for the next 5 years - who knows beyond that for any team.

 

[Mark W]

I really don't get the uproar over our strategy. We're losing 2 players (Noble & Richards) whilst getting 2 (Perryman & Houston) which are huge upgrades.

At the expense of getting quality 18 year olds who might play the positions in which we have the most need - ie key position and midfield

 

[Scodog10]

At the expense of getting quality 18 year olds who might play the positions in which we have the most need - ie key position and midfield

Bolded the key word in your post

 

[nahnah]

Sigh……

The Blues under 25’s he listed aren’t all superstars either. TDK, the Hollands and Walsh are the only ones of that list that are any good

TDK and Perryman are both 25 years old right now..

 

[LuckyLee]

Story.

Carlton is pulling hard on the reins well before it plummets over the edge of a list cliff.

Collingwood is not afraid to charge right up to the edge and teeter on the brink like in an old-style Western movie, hopeful it pulls back in the nick of time.

These two famous rivals are both in the hunt for a hugely expensive half back in Dan Houston to further their premiership aspirations.

But while Collingwood is all in – prepared to hand over another future first-rounder for a 27-year-older – the Blues are prioritising the draft.

Only if they can find another first-rounder and also take four draft selections will they jump at Houston.

It is a fascinating case study in an era when a Dad’s Army won the 2022 flag for Geelong.

Collingwood is fully prepared to back in that strategy even when it doesn’t fulfil the club’s stated goals of finding the key forward Craig McRae wants or the key back to replace Nathan Murphy.

If Collingwood wins a flag next year with Houston and free agent Harry Perryman in its side, those Pies fans will echo the Richmond fans post-dynasty.

As in who cares what it all costs.

And yet the risk is even more apparent when you crunch the numbers for Collingwood based on Champion Data’s relative ratings.

Even before you consider the nine players who will be 30-plus on the Pies list next year, assess the performances of their 25-and-unders.

Of the club’s 14 players in that age bracket to play a game last year, only a single one was in the positive based on their expected performance compared to players of a similar age across the competition.

Of course it was Nick Daicos, who was 62 per cent above his expected return.

Ed Allan was technically the second player with a positive rating but his sample size was tiny – two games in which he admitted looked the goods.

Beau McCreery, Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill and Isaac Quaynor are all huge talents but all had negative ratings for 2024.

Make of that what you will given Hill still kicked 30 goals and McCreery took a step as a midfielder as well as pressure forward.

In contrast the Blues had 15 players 25-and-under who averaged 14 games this year _ with five boasting a positive relative rating in addition to Cooper Lord (only two games).

Carlton has underperformed but few in the competition have a better spread of elite talls.

Carlton has the better ruckman for the future in Tom De Koning (even if 29-year-old Darcy Cameron had a phenomenal year), the younger full back (Weitering over Moore), the better key talls (Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay).

And yet the Pies could add in two flankers in Houston and Perryman while giving up a future first-rounder while Carlton backs in the draft.

There is a salary cap component – Collingwood is coming into money, while Carlton’s list is top-heavy with big fat contracts.

But Collingwood, already the oldest list in footy by age (27.5) and average matches (128.5) will be positively geriatric next year.

They already have five players older than Carlton’s oldest player in Nic Newman.

Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe, Steele Sidebottom, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek will be playing as 32-year olds at some stage next year.

Tom Mitchell, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jack Crisp will join them as 30-year-olds.

For Carlton only Nic Newman and Sam Docherty played as 30-year-olds this year, Newman only 31 and Docherty playing only two AFL games.

The Blues 25-and-unders include Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Matt Cottrell, Sam Walsh, Brodie Kemp, Elijah Hollands, Jesse Motlop, Ollie Hollands.

Curnow is only 27, while Harry McKay and Jacob Weitering played at 26.

And yet Collingwood is still all in on Houston despite so many question marks over their under-25s.

Joe Richards is off to Port Adelaide, Nathan Kreuger, Reef McInness and Charlie Dean are in limbo, Finlay Macrae was repeatedly dropped last year and might not make it.

Harvey Harrison is recovering from an ACL tear, while Wil Parker played five games and Ned Long was handed seven chances.

It is crazy brave by Collingwood even as they prepare to welcome Mick McGuane’s son Tom as a father-son in 2026.

Carlton is ensuring its premiership window opens long into the future.

Collingwood is crazy brave.

Some would even say reckless, but you have to admire their courage to saddle up again despite the inherent risks.

Someone give the man a box of Kleenex. It reads like he was crying as he typed about the possibility of us winning again next year. The poor sensitive petal.

 

[danielnajdek]

At the expense of getting quality 18 year olds who might play the positions in which we have the most need - ie key position and midfield

Remember that day we had 2 top 10 picks in Freeman and Scharenberg. That ended up well.

 

[The Majestic]

"Carlton forward Matt Owies is at risk of being out of the AFL completely in 2025 due to clubs’ unwillingness to stump up a significant salary for the small forward. Owies, who booted 33 goals in 23 games this season, is out of contract and exploring options at rival clubs, with the Blues prepared to lose him. But some clubs have suggested he could struggle to find a home this off-season, with Owies’ asking price believed to be around $700,000-800,000 per season on a multi-year deal."

Crazy, crazy money. Poor guy is going to struggle.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

At the expense of getting quality 18 year olds who might play the positions in which we have the most need - ie key position and midfield

Might...

Who says we won't pick up a talented 18 year old kpf in this year's draft?

Who says Allan, Harry won't develop into quality midfielders?

Who says with the extra cash we'll have at the end of next year, we can't lure someone like LDU?

And we ARE getting Tom McGuane in 2026.

 

[Mark W]

It's worth noting tomlinsons stats when he does play seniors. He was killing the VFL and it's hard getting a game ahead of May and Lever. Then McDonald had a season out of the blue which didn't help. I think he's going to be very handy for us

But he doesnt have to get a game ahead of May and Lever. Lever doesnt play as a KPD. He plays a 3rd tall, read the play and intercept role. Melbourne always plays another tall along with May and Lever - MacDonald, Petty or Tomlinson. In short its MacDonald or Petty that Tomlinson needed to get a game ahead of...

 

[stormskye]

Bolded the key word in your post

I’ll add a further caveat. In 3-4 seasons

 

[thommo_legend]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/trade-hq/afl-trade-news-live-updates-and-news-from-day-2-of-afl-trade-period/live-coverage/eba2e2a221ef14e27694d86eb092f92d

Surely we want this trade, with or without getting Houston

 

[LuckyLee]

So we are now linked with Jack Hayes?

Seems a curious one.

Sorry, who?

 

[Matt_352]

Noble Upgrade

Yeah x 10

 

[GCPie]

I would be quite happy if we pick up Houston and Perryman.
Add that into a side with Mitchell and McStay for the full season - that will do nicely.

 

[JLC]

Sorry, who?

Mature age forward ruck from the saints - debuted in same game as Nicky D.

Appears to have had a ban run of injuries. I will have to watch some highlights.

 

[tmpies01]

Ralph has just uploaded a newly-minted bowel movement sooking about Collingwood's pursuit of Houston.

All I’ve heard since post grand final. Sooking about Collingwood. We must still be a threat next year.

 

[HFF]

Even with pick 13 alone the blues still don’t have the currency to add to that deal as port won’t take that on its own.
They will have no futures to be able to move out and their later picks this year are needed for their father sons.

Crazy to see how this one plays out

 

[Scodog10]

I love how this article posits a world where Harry Perryman never exited lol

I’ll admit I speed read due to the stupidity of the article, but I completely missed the reference to Perryman?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I would be quite happy if we pick up Houston and Perryman.
Add that into a side with Mitchell and McStay for the full season - that will do nicely.

McStay and Mitchell are for all intents and purposes new recruits all over again

Those two, plus Perryman, plus Houston and potentially (fingers crossed we can get his body right) Hayes and/or Tomlinson?

I’ll take it

 

[Chameleon75]

I’m always weary about picking through the saints hard rubbish collection.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I’ll admit I speed read due to the stupidity of the article, but I completely missed the reference to Perryman?

You know what? My bad

I skipped the headline which said “Day 2” and the starts by talking about Neal-Bullen and Darling being the first two players to find new homes

I was like…”uh Perryman”?

Not realising the article was about day 2

 

[Scodog10]

Even with pick 13 alone the blues still don’t have the currency to add to that deal as port won’t take that on its own.
They will have no futures to be able to move out and their later picks this year are needed for their father sons.

Crazy to see how this one plays out

That’s the broader issue. If they’re prepared to move 12 all bets are off because they don’t need to dip into futures for 13, but in order to get 13 they compromise their deal for Houston. That article of GC wanting the Pies and Blues to duke it out for 13 reads as a GC’s plan to gain leverage to me.

 

[Piesinfront]

At the expense of getting quality 18 year olds who might play the positions in which we have the most need - ie key position and midfield

Trouble is the 18yr olds are a 50/50 bet at best especially when our potential first round picks are generally well outside top5 picks.....eg past bets have been Ollie Henry (good player but left/lost), Freeman (injury sunk), Sharenberg (injury sunk). As an example of the "raffle" - in 2020, Beau McCreery was our 5th pick (44), but our most productive!

 

[Matt_352]

Got hopefully my final CPA exam on Thursday and trying to get revision done with the trade period going on is fk HELL.