List Mgmt. Collingwood Trade and FA

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If we don't get Houston, then we have monumentally failed.

I want Houston but getting ourselves into this seasons 1st round with the potential to maximize that pick 13 value (assuming we'd even want to or could) isn't a bad 2nd place.

Miss on both and it'll be a disappointment and all OUR stress over it on BF would have been for sweet bugger all.

Perryman is nice but that's still a distant 3rd place.
 
We should but I think Port are terrified by that because we've suddenly got a bit more leverage if we have 13 and 23 in the hand with a deal for Houston still to be worked through.

GC to mightn't want it done without it being a 3 way because the feel they can squeeze a better result out of it.

If we come out of this having given over 13 and 23 for Houston with 29 left in the hand (effectively valuing Richards at that) we would have done better than expected. Not convinced Port would be so generous towards us though. Might take us giving or swapping a 3rd round selection.

While your scenario of 39 for 29 would be a better option points wise than just 41 alone (and better for us if we got it) optically it doesn't look as good for GC. If they got 55 out of us for 13 + 23 then optics might win out and they only offer PA the later pick. If we then ended up with 39 and 41 I would still consider it a small win.

Pick 39 for Richards, a 5 spot slide paying us back for the 36 we used to obtain 13.

God knows what's really on offer with 3 egos involved. Two is bad enough.
I think it's best done as a three way deal in terms of ego, so each deal isn't pulled apart and scrutinized too closely by the media. And there's a pretty straightforward deal where all clubs can feel like they've got what they wanted. I tend to agree that we'll be bloody lucky if we end up with 29, but think we'll end up with one of the second rounders.

Ultimately GC will be the big winners as the only club not losing a player(s) they don't want to lose and getting everything they want. And getting a first in as part of shedding Lukosius's salary will be an awesome outcome for them, even if it costs them a second round pick. I think that's the real pot of gold for them and why they're still holding 13 and have said they are interested in where Houston goes.
 
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This is where I feel the media are driving a certain agenda and are potentially drumming up untrue scenarios. Not one of them had any clue that pick 14 was on the market and available, until the deal was as good as done.

It feels like Collingwood are fighting the opposition clubs recruiting team and the media. Though I hope both parties are professional enough to not get caught up by the drivel dished up by these dishonest and despicable dumbasses.
Trade "week" is sponsored by Continental Tyres - they're paying for exposure

The AFL love their "brand" (😡) in everyone's face

The media live off ratings

I'm sure there's some hefty encouragement here and there for the main actors to stretch this theatre as far as possible

I mean why is it not just Mon to Frid?

Next the AFL will want to compete with ....

Screenshot_20241014-004618~2.png

then...

Screenshot_20241014-005034~2.png
 
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I still can't believe Damo could suggest Carlton could land Houston for 12 or 14.

Think it through you muppet, we did and we aren't a highly paid media personality.

The reality is they have 12 and 14 this year then bugger all until 69. They've already traded out a F1 and F2. Bugger all left there also as the rules dictate they can't now offer up the other F2. It's tied to Brisbane anyway so worth double bugger all.

They're clearly not going to hand over 12 and 14 unless they go the nuclear option.

So what can they get for 1 of those picks?

12 for 19 and 22 from Sydney (if the offer is even real) looks their best bet because Port want picks now. Richmond perhaps depending on what they end up with but that might be cutting it super fine.

Even if they got them PA aren't stupid they know they could have done the same deal with Sydney and gotten 23 from us.

They'll ask for 14 and 19 at a minimum and leave Carlton with 22 if they're lucky.

Perhaps that can all be achieved but it seems to go against the strategy of what Carlton had been trying to do, evidenced most recently in the play at pick 3.
 
Trade "week" is sponsored by Continental Tyres - they're paying for exposure

The AFL love their "brand" (😡) in everyone's face

The media live off ratings

I'm sure there's some hefty encouragement here and there for the main actors to stretch this theatre as far as possible

I mean why is it not just Mon to Frid?

Next the AFL will want to compete with ....

View attachment 2140323

then...

View attachment 2140324
Yeah, people really need to 'vote with their feet' & avoid the shitty operators.

Gettable is a good show, for example, & there're a few good journos, but a lot of them are just taking the piss at this point.

The punters really need to stop swallowing just anything loosely related to 'trade news'.

Otherwise, it'll just keep getting more & more insufferable.
 
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I still can't believe Damo could suggest Carlton could land Houston for 12 or 14.

Think it through you muppet, we did and we aren't a highly paid media personality.

The reality is they have 12 and 14 this year then bugger all until 69. They've already traded out a F1 and F2. Bugger all left there also as the rules dictate they can't now offer up the other F2. It's tied to Brisbane anyway so worth double bugger all.

They're clearly not going to hand over 12 and 14 unless they go the nuclear option.

So what can they get for 1 of those picks?

12 for 19 and 22 from Sydney (if the offer is even real) looks their best bet because Port want picks now. Richmond perhaps depending on what they end up with but that might be cutting it super fine.

Even if they got them PA aren't stupid they know they could have done the same deal with Sydney and gotten 23 from us.

They'll ask for 14 and 19 at a minimum and leave Carlton with 22 if they're lucky.

Perhaps that can all be achieved but it seems to go against the strategy of what Carlton had been trying to do, evidenced most recently in the play at pick 3.
I (sadly) think that some variation of the above (probably 14 & 22) may happen and Houston will get to the Blues, the club he supported in childhood.
Praying it doesn't happen but fear it will.
Even if it does, we'll still have an extra pick or two in this year's draft after the JR deal (hope we hold onto JFN in that case), which should make Jen & Co happy.
 
The way I see it Leppa has done all he could if:

1. He's offered to hand over a F1 and 36 for 13.
2. He's reluctantly agreed to give 13 and 23 for Houston.
3. He's prepared to swap/sacrifice our 3rd picks to get a deal done.

If we aren't prepared to offer up either of the first 2 options then I'm not surprised the deal has reached a stalemate. Pick 13 is worth more than our F1 on the market. Houston is worth more than 13 and Richards.

On the hand the problem could lie at the feet of GC and PA if:

1. GC want more than our F1, 36, Noble for 13 and 23.
2. GC will only provide 29 in return for Noble if nothing more offered.
3. PA will not accept 13 and 29 for Houston. GC will reluctantly accept but want Richards free in return.
4. PA will accept 13 and 23 but will only offer 58 for Richards.
5. Countless other scenarios you can come up with.

If any of the above are taking place then it's quickly reaching a point where we cast our eyes unfortunately away from Houston and look to get our hands on pick 13 in a separate deal. That goes so does any hope of landing Houston anyway.

GC have already rejected 13 and 23 for F1 and Noble. No surprise.

The want F1 and Noble for 13. That seems overs to me but can we get to the front of the queue without doing it or without getting a lesser return on Noble?

If we knew for sure we could turn 13 into 19 and 22 then for a 6 pick slide we could effectively pay ourselves back for Noble whilst retaining pick 36 in the process. Anything else we got in return for Noble would then be a bonus.

Whatever it looks like we need to have a plan B because missing on both Houston and 13 from here would be the worst outcome.
Plan B is we keep Noble... easy.
 
I (sadly) think that some variation of the above (probably 14 & 22) may happen and Houston will get to the Blues, the club he supported in childhood.
Praying it doesn't happen but fear it will.
Even if it does, we'll still have an extra pick or two in this year's draft after the JR deal (hope we hold onto JFN in that case), which should make Jen & Co happy.
As of Monday, it looks increasingly likely that we do not get Houston. Now whether that is a bad outcome or a good outcome, only time will tell. However, I am still wondering if the this speculative outcome would have taken place if Graham Wright was still at Collingwood & driving the trade process. Anyway, let's see what happens over the next 3 days & take it from there. By the way, I am also wondering if the Collingwood football department had a fall-back set of choices if this trade/s with the Gold Coast & Port Adelaide does not get done? Goodnight & good luck.
 
As of Monday, it looks increasingly likely that we do not get Houston. Now whether that is a bad outcome or a good outcome, only time will tell. However, I am still wondering if the this speculative outcome would have taken place if Graham Wright was still at Collingwood & driving the trade process. Anyway, let's see what happens over the next 3 days & take it from there. By the way, I am also wondering if the Collingwood football department had a fall-back set of choices if this trade/s with the Gold Coast & Port Adelaide does not get done? Goodnight & good luck.
If GW had resigned before the trade period last year we would have Houston in the bag as we'd still have our pick 11 this year to trade.
 

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List Mgmt. Collingwood Trade and FA

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