List Mgmt. Contract, Trade and Draft Discussions - 2024 Post Season

Whose future picks would you have preferred?

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Trade period
In: 12, F1, F2, F3, 73, Baker, Owies, Graham*
Out: 3, 63, F4, Barrass, Darling

*Free agent

Done deals

  • Jai Culley, Alex Witherden and Coby Burgiel delisted






  • Zane Trew, Jamaine Jones and Jordyn Baker delisted

 
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www.afl.com.au

The draft change adding another element to upcoming trade frenzy

Cal Twomey takes a look at how changes to the points model could impact this year's Trade Period
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

Interesting on the points reduction for next year across the board, my out take is that picks this year are way more valuable than next year for 3 reasons:

  • quality of this draft vs compromised nature of next years
  • Points value is higher this year than next, so 23 is way more valuable than our F2
  • Future trading is a gamble as we know, teams can improve and you banking on a top 10 pick could end up pick 16.

So I'm guessing teams will be much more unlikely to trade this years picks for Future picks more than ever!
 
RUNVS said:
We do have some promising kids for the 2025 and 2026 drafts (promising being the correct term here as a tonne can happen between now and then) but I very much want to keep Warner.

In saying that though, if Warner wants to go back to Western Australia in the somewhat near term I would rather the Swans do a trade at the end of this year than in a year or two.
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Given Sydney is pushing for flags right now, Warner is more valuable than any draftee in the short-medium term, so understandable that you want to keep him.

Warner is contracted for next year on a modest salary (approx $500k?) and could earn $1.5M+ at WCE, or Freo if they don’t land Bolton.

Interesting that you would rather trade him this year, as the general vibe is that Sydney will likely hold him to his contract next year unless he demands out. However, Swans would have more leverage for a better trade deal this year while he is in contract.
 
mat11 said:
Next year's NGA/father son bidding rules doesn't look too bad, we should have full access to our lot next year although there have been a few changes. Essentially 4th and 3rd rounders may not carry any weight although the picks themselves aren't valued as high excluding pick 1. If we are trading out fringe players this year we either want f2's or picks this year.

ie it'd be in our best interest to get either an R4 for petrucelle this year rather than an f4 or get an f2 for bbw rather than a R3 this year
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Clubs have had for a while what the draft copy was going to be for next years point matching. I couldn't make a comment until the AFL released it.

People can now see why I mentioned that future third round picks are being seen as almost worthless in a trade. Compromised draft without the quality of depth outside of academy and club tied players (top few picks look better than this year imo) on top of the point values and you can see why.

WA does have some very good prospects next year.
 

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Eastern Rangers said:
What is missed here is that Draper is quick and agile. He's not a Chris Masten prospect who lacks pace on the outside and size on the inside. He's also played league football to a decent standard which should arrest any concerns about his transition to the highest level.

If you're comparing him to Smith he's got more pace, longer kick, stronger in the clenches. It's really Smiths freakish outside game that puts him higher in the draft order.
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Still in the Lalor camp.


Has all the attributes to be an exceptionally damaging matchup in the middle and up forward.

Would slot in well with H.Reid and Hewett in a three-way rotation between midfield and attack.


The prospect of pairing Lalor with H.Reid also adds to the creation of a hard and uncompromising edge that would become the identity of the team as it develops.


There are plenty of midfield accumulators throughout this cohort out to 30.


Obviously time will tell, but on current appearance the top 12 of this draft looks extremely good and unusually even.

If pick 3 could be split into two picks inside 12 whilst retaining 13 (from the Hawks) and current 23, I would take it.
 
Dylan82 said:
Still in the Lalor camp.


Has all the attributes to be an exceptionally damaging matchup in the middle and up forward.

Would slot in well with H.Reid and Hewett in a three-way rotation between midfield and attack.


The prospect of pairing Lalor with H.Reid also adds to the creation of a hard and uncompromising edge that would become the identity of the team as it develops.


There are plenty of midfield accumulators throughout this cohort out to 30.


Obviously time will tell, but on current appearance the top 12 of this draft looks extremely good and unusually even.

If pick 3 could be split into two picks inside 12 whilst retaining 13 (from the Hawks) and current 23, I would take it.
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We'd need a top 6 for Lalor wouldn't we mate?
Would GC want to get in front of the Lombard pick? (I think he'll get bid on pretty early)

3+F2 for 6+12 (3 along not enough this year?)

Out 3, F2, 59,64
In 6, 12, 46, 71


Take to the draft, something like - 6, 12,13,23, 46, (71)

6 - Lalor/Draper
12 - Travaglia/Hotton
13 - Berry/Dodson/Lindsay
23 - Hynes/Moraes/Gross/Gerreyn
46 - Best left/Champion bid
71 - Best left/Champion bid
 
Last edited:
www.afl.com.au

The draft change adding another element to upcoming trade frenzy

Cal Twomey takes a look at how changes to the points model could impact this year's Trade Period
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au
www.afl.com.au

Draft bidding and future picks revamp on hold, 'Jamarra rule' to change

The AFL Commission has approved a raft of player movement rule changes to come in over the next three seasons
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au


My take on the new points system will deliver the following changes:-

1. Points are assigned from picks 1 to 54 instead of 1-72 meaning R4 picks worthless
- designed to stop clubs stocking up on worthless points to match higher end talent
- the drop off from 1 to 10 is -57% in the new versus -54% in the old so a change but not a massive change. The reality is that most clubs would not accept picks 8 and 9 for pick 1


2. All clubs will get access F/S , NGA and Northern Academy talent provided they have the points. In 2025 they will only get a 10% discount which is down from 20% (still in place for 2024) and NGA clubs will get access to all prospects from pick 1 (undoing the Jamarah rule)
  • non Northern Clubs get a "somewhat fairer deal" but Northern Academies have minimal entry rules while it is still limited to get a prospect in the NGA.
  • we are not on an even footing and the rules for indigenous talent is still blurred (example as to why Liam Henry who went to Christchurch is a Fremantle NGA prospect - he was always going to make it)
  • the born overseas or parent born overseas rule is still open to question (if Daniel Curtin had of been born in Jakarta when his family lived there then he would have been a Fremantle NGA)


3. There are 10,453 less points representing a loss of 21%. The higher a club finishes, the greater the loss in %
  • in theory this should mean a faster rebuild for lower finishing clubs
  • I would still like to see a rule whereby a club has to hold their original pick in the round bid on or a pick within XX number of spots.
  • No drama letting the Suns get 4 R1 talents last year but they should never have been able to cash out with an additional 2 x F1 picks after matching

1726891292629.png
 
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AsterixTheGaul said:
www.afl.com.au

The draft change adding another element to upcoming trade frenzy

Cal Twomey takes a look at how changes to the points model could impact this year's Trade Period
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au
www.afl.com.au

Draft bidding and future picks revamp on hold, 'Jamarra rule' to change

The AFL Commission has approved a raft of player movement rule changes to come in over the next three seasons
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au


My take on the new points system will deliver the following changes:-

1. Points are assigned from picks 1 to 54 instead of 1-72 meaning R4 picks worthless
- designed to stop clubs stocking up on worthless points to match higher end talent
- the drop off from 1 to 10 is -57% in the new versus -54% in the old so a change but not a massive change. The reality is that most clubs would not accept picks 8 and 9 for pick 1


2. All clubs will get access F/S , NGA and Northern Academy talent provided they have the points. In 2025 they will only get a 10% discount which is down from 20% (still in place for 2024) and NGA clubs will get access to all prospects from pick 1 (undoing the Jamarah rule)
  • non Northern Clubs get a "somewhat fairer deal" but Northern Academies have minimal entry rules while it is still limited to get a prospect in the NGA.
  • we are not on an even footing and the rules for indigenous talent is still blurred (example as to why Liam Henry who goes to Christchurch is a Fremantle NGA prospect)
  • the born overseas or parent born overseas rule is still open to question (if Daniel Curtin had of been born in Jakarta when his family lived there then he would have been a Fremantle NGA)


3. There are 10,453 less points representing a loss of 21%. The higher a club finishes, the greater the loss in %
  • in theory this should mean a faster rebuild for lower finishing clubs
  • I would still like to see a rule whereby a club has to hold their original pick in the round bid on or a pick within XX number of spots.
  • No drama letting the Suns get 4 R1 talents last year but they should never have been able to cash out with an additional 2 x F1 picks after matching

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The answer is simple - remove the discounts. Clubs have been complicit in helping Gold Coast and GWS with their pick trading strategies. This won't change. Clubs will also continue to have priority access to players. By removing the discounts and points from fourth round picks, clubs that take advantage of priority access to players will naturally wind up with worse depth over time than those who don't.

Reducing rather than removing the discounts is a HUGE swing and a miss by the AFL.
 
Mattman93 said:
Lalor's being under-rated in the popular online draft discourse. I reckon plenty of recruiters probably have him pushing number 1 on their boards, and I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if come draft night he's firmly in that conversation for Richmond's pick.*
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eaglevision said:
Travaglia and Lindsay will be the two best value picks in the first round of the draft and to the surprise of absolutely no one are my two favourite players. If we can find a way to get both I’m all for exploring it. 3 for 6 and 9 may well get us Lalor, Travaglia and then Lindsay at 13.

3 for 9 and 10 probably means we miss Travaglia and end up with Lindsay, Berry and Allan.
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Mattman93 said:
Case in point ^^. I'm fairly confident Lalor's not getting to 6.
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Case in point again:

ArdentEagle said:
We'd need a top 6 for Lalor wouldn't we mate?
Would GC want to get in front of the Lombard pick? (I think he'll get bid on pretty early)

3+F2 for 6+12 (3 along not enough this year?)

Out 3, F2, 59,64
In 6, 12, 46, 71


Take to the draft, something like - 6, 12,13,23, 46, (71)

6 - Lalor/Draper
12 - Travaglia/Hotton
13 - Berry/Dodson/Lindsay
23 - Hynes/Moraes/Gross/Gerreyn
46 - Best left/Champion bid
71 - Best left/Champion bid
Click to expand...

Keep 3; take Lalor, if he's there.
 
I do not believe the Suns will be trying to get ahead of the Lombard bid
ArdentEagle said:
We'd need a top 6 for Lalor wouldn't we mate?
Would GC want to get in front of the Lombard pick? (I think he'll get bid on pretty early)
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My understanding is that the Suns have 4 priorities in the draft/trade period

1. Dimma wants Rioli big time and will use pick 6 and others depending on the salary take up by Tigers
2. The want to match the bid of Lombard which should be top 10. A club wanting to piss off the Suns might go early on a bid
3. The want to move picks to 2025 so will be ticking while others tack. Therefore they are likely to get a premium for the picks they hold in the first 2 rounds and decent currency for the R3 and R4 picks (they have plenty)
4. Get Lukosius and his salary off their books and they have both SA clubs keen. Not going to get a brilliant pick but they will still extract value.

I do not think they will prioritise getting ahead of the Lombard pick.

Here is a list or the Suns AA players in the U16 AA team in 2023.

Kalani White
Height 197cm KPD who can also go forward
Best attributed - athleticism and outstanding overhead mark due to a huge leap. Rarely beaten one-on-one. Son of Demons and Dockers ruck Jeff White.

Zeke Uwland
Height: 176cm outside midfielder
Best attributes – very clean and skilled left footer who also reads the play well. Is a real connector from defence to attack, both wide and through the corridor. Gets a lot of it and knows impacts the scoreboard both in goals and assists.

Dylan Patterson
Height 183 cm wing or high half forward
Best attributes – pace to burn whilst not afraid to take on the contest often with decent tackle numbers.

Jai Murray
Height 184cm medium/midfielder forward who is a tough competitor and loves contested football. Good skills by hand a foot and decent football IQ meaning he usually impacts the contest.

Beau Addinsall
Height 179cm balanced midfielder/forward who gets a heap of possessions and also goes forward and impacts the scoreboard. He was the Suns’ MVP and Alan McLean Medal as the best and fairest player in Pool B in 2023 U16.

They also took 4 R1 talents in the 2023 draft so they can afford to light on this year. They will have elite midfielders to get in 2025 so not need to spend this year
 

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mat11 said:
If we want baker (I'd say its a 50/50 split on this board) Ralphy's suggestion is prob the best and we keep Hawks f1

Wce - 6, baker
Rich - 3
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People hate it but I’m happy with it. Keep hearing ‘the top of the draft is so even, you can’t miss ect’. ‘Teams with Pick 10 think they are getting the best player in the draft’. ‘I’d take Travaglia at 3 anyway’ ‘I’d move back one spot for a 3rd round pick’

Getting Baker and top 6 player in this draft would be good business.

Imo 3 for 6 + 9 is very unlikely. If you can get that of course you do it but
I personally don’t think it’s reality.
 
Elite Pete said:
People hate it but I’m happy with it. ‘Keep hearing the top of the draft is so even ect’. ‘Teams with Pick 10 think they are getting the best player in the draft’. ‘I’d take Travaglia at 3 anyway’ ‘I’d move back one spot for a 3rd pick’

Getting Baker and top 6 player in this draft would be good business.

Imo 3 for 6 + 9 is very unlikely. If you can get that of course you do it but
I personally don’t think it’s reality.
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Where would Baker go if pushed to the draft?
 
random260 said:
Wowwee what a steal.

Pick 20s to move up from 6 to 3.

I'd give up pick 23 to move up 3 to 1
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I reckon a lot of people wouldn’t.

All comes down to where our recruiting team have their tiers cut offs.
-If they have a top 3 before a gap? The you probably wouldn’t do it.
-Is it top 2 and they believe they will be gone and a gap then the next 4 grouped together?
-Is it a top 6 and gap?
- If the Crows trade down to do the Lukisous trade (4 for Luko + 12) and then Sid is expected to be there with our
Pick 6? (Talking open draft)

Draft intel and where team have their twins will be the determining factor of the value of 3 and 6. Not ideal the trade would have to be done more than a month before the draft and things change in that time.
 
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Elite Pete said:
Take Baker out of it.

It’s how long is a piece of string but let’s play the game, what do you think Richmond would give up in a pick to move up from 6 to 3?
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In that situation you hold until draft night if they want to pair up and pick 2 isn't one of the pair.

They will then potentially pay handsomely and the club should know who they want to pair up by draft night.
 
WCE_phil said:
In that situation you hold until draft night if they want to pair up and pick 2 isn't one of the pair.

They will then potentially pay handsomely and the club should know who they want to pair up by draft night.
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Problem is the trade period involving players is shut a month before that. You might not know that at that stage, Also they may not have a huge desire to move up and if they do it might be the equivalent of what we think Bakers worth is (most a pick in the 20s on here) Going by this board, everyone has a different top 6 (minus Ashcroft)

Very hard to judge every teams white boards and even more so this year. Even Cal is already putting out the disclaimers for his final mock draft
 
Surely our feigned interest in Bolton is purely to force fremantle to cough up . In reality Liam Baker is not a pressing need so its rather Richmond rewarding Baker as a loyal servant his wish to go home . We can take him but its not incumbent on us to pay anything but unders .
 
boondy said:
Surely our feigned interest in Bolton is purely to force fremantle to cough up . In reality Liam Baker is not a pressing need so its rather Richmond rewarding Baker as a loyal servant his wish to go home . We can take him but its not incumbent on us to pay anything but unders .
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Absolutely. Baker wants to come home, Richmond want draft capital, Bakers silence about which club is just smoke and mirrors...... WCE hold all the cards in this potential trade.... just wait till the the last day of trade period and Richmond will come with cap in hand take the unders we offer them . As you said, he does not fill any pressing need with us or Freo, and it does not sound like the Tigers are making real noise about trying to get him to stay....... 2nd rounder at best or he walks to the preseason draft and ends up at North on a rookie contract.... Neither Baker nor the Tigers are going to want that.
 
Barrybran said:
The answer is simple - remove the discounts. Clubs have been complicit in helping Gold Coast and GWS with their pick trading strategies. This won't change. Clubs will also continue to have priority access to players. By removing the discounts and points from fourth round picks, clubs that take advantage of priority access to players will naturally wind up with worse depth over time than those who don't.

Reducing rather than removing the discounts is a HUGE swing and a miss by the AFL.
Click to expand...

My thought is not only should there not be a discount, it should be a 10 or 20% surcharge for the privledge of the club being able to match a bid.
 
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