List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion - 2022 Off Season Edition

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Contract status of all players now fully updated

 
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Daft night:

Pick 8 Ginbey
Pick 12 Jefferson.

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You dont need to use early picks on one dimentional inside mids. D'Aloia and Szybkowski can be selected at 23 and 29 and we have two very capable bigger inside mids as well as Culley.

And we use next years draft to target better balanced mids.

So it can be done.
So true.

Now let us look at this year’s draft - the early first round is full of midfielders with a sprinkling of half forwards.

Now let us look at next year’s draft - the first round is full of talls with a good range of everything represented throughout. Deep on rucks early mid and late.

Even the Pieman on his SEN interview said that. Relax.
 

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The club said its focus is on mids but i think taking someone like Busslinger/Jefferson at 12 is really in play with a view to taking mids at 8, 20/26. There will be stuff all talls at 20/26 so i guess it makes sense.
 
I think Barnett gets taken by Melbourne (provided not pick swaps happen)
Dogs will go tall defender. Possibly Jefferson to Sydney but I thing he slides to out 3/4th pick.

Barnett at 13 (14) to Melbourne would be a huge surprise.

Maybe not a massive reach (he's probably expected in the 15-25 range) but would be a surprise with guys like Jefferson, Allan or a slider (if either of those or another surprise pick like Hayes is taken earlier).
 
I don't have a problem with Jefferson in isolation. Not like we don't need another KPF, and he's the 2nd best in this draft.

I think the problem is more on who we'd be missing out on. Hewett potentially, or Allan. Depends on the mix of our 4 picks, can't melt without seeing the full lot and how we end up.
 
The club said its focus is on mids but i think taking someone like Busslinger/Jefferson at 12 is really in play with a view to taking mids at 8, 20/26. There will be stuff all talls at 20/26 so i guess it makes sense.

I'm not sure about this. What seems to be causing most angst around here (rightfully so) is that there are highly rated talls expected to be taken around each of our picks:

Busslinger
Jefferson
Barnett
Keeler

They are all either likely to be available (in the case of the first 2) but not available at our following pick

or taken just prior (Barnett and Keeler are unknowns currently)

In my opinion the hardest part of the draft that WC need to navigate is when to take our tall (1 tall, 3 smalls should be the aim for the first 4 picks):

Is Busslinger that much better than others that we just take him
Do we rate Jefferson as a long-term forward prospect (and is he guaranteed to be there at our 2nd)
Is Barnett too good to pass up at 20, and will he get to that pick
Does Keeler get to 26?

Then things like Broadbent, Tom Scully (we go on and on about how we rate U17 form - his was right up there, so maybe we take him with a late pick), probably a heap of others I'm missing or don't know.

There are talls scattered throughout this draft, but really only 2 at the very top end (Cadman and Busslinger). But as has been said by pretty much everyone - this draft is very hard to predict as it is viewed as quite even. So at times there may be teams reach for a tall (for instance us with Jefferson at 13, or maybe Melbourne with Barnett at 14), and some smalls or mids might slip through. Alternatively (and this is more common in drafts) teams might take the smaller player in preference to the tall, so guys like Busslinger, Jefferson, Barnett, Keeler might slip towards the back of their draft range (in some aspects this is already happening with the first 2).

We have lots of options, but our later picks should be dictated by what we take early on. (also, don't take 2 talls with 9/13!)
 

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Which begs the question...if we did take McKenzie at 8, would saints then take Hewett?

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That would be possible but if we take Mackenzie then missing Hewett isn’t so bad

That said, it’s shaping that Ginbey gets through to our first pick and, if so, that’s who I think we’ll take. If not, a strong chance we go Busslinger

At our second pick it seems we’ll have to choose between Allan and Hewett.

My best guess atm is a Ginbey/Allan combo when my uneducated preference would be either Mackenzie/Allan or Ginbey/Hewett
 
It’s also good due diligence to be canvassing all players likely to be available around your pick(s)

And yes, Saints would be concerned we might take Mackenzie at 8 so makes sense for them to express an interest in Hewett to possibly force our hand

It’s going to be a long 5 days as speculation ramps up given the names of the players likely to be taken between picks 5 and 13 are consistent but the order they get called out is far from certain
I don't understand St Kilda's game here?

If we rate McKenzie as the best option at pick 8, why would we be scared into taking Hewett instead for FOMO?
Is the suggestion here that we rate Hewett higher than McKenzie, but are gambling on nobody else rating Hewett and so getting him cheap? Surely we've learned our lesson after TK was taken from under our nose and then we had to pay through the nose to trade him back?

Simple strategy is to take best available. If we have two equally rated talents, then we can gamble on who will last to our next pick. But even then I'd still be inclined to pick the one we want more (e.g. local boy all else being equal) instead of engaging in stupid mind games.
 
Interesting Hewett says he expects to go around the 8 to 12 mark 👀

This might suggest we take at #12

Busslinger , Eagles are stocked with a good backline group ( youngsters also) and are looking at midfielders so expecting to go anywhere in the draft ....between 10-20 Busslinger hinted .

Only way to Eagles would be pick 20 , would have thought .
 



Hawthorn and Ginbey is a new one.


Even if Ginbey is our preferred target, it almost seems we can't lose at 8 (Busslinger may be considered a losing scenario... but assuming we go for a mid we will have choice).

We can lock in 4 choices and 5 players - Ashcroft, Wardlaw, Sheezel - Humphrey to GC. The other player locked in is Phillipou - either to Bombers or Hawks.

That leaves 2 variable picks and at minimum 4 very good options - MacKenzie, Tsatsas, Clark and Ginbey...

2 of the 4 are likely to be available at our pick, which is a very good outcome.
 
I want Hewett at 12 unless we are certain he'd slide to 20. I just think there's value for him there. Given his balanced nature he can complement whoever else we end up with. It's that 8 that is a big question, ultimately we should get someone decent, even if not my preferred pick in the Poo.
 
Happy to take Jefferson, right time to draft a tall forward with Darling getting on. Would be a smooth transition to a Allen/Jefferson forward combo given expected development time.
Is Jefferson actually good, or just named around there by default given he's the second ranked key forward?

Looks like averaged less than 10 touches a game for Oakleigh, and 2.2 goals. Doesn't scream pick me, given neither a high possession winner or a high goal kicker.
 
I want Hewett at 12 unless we are certain he'd slide to 20. I just think there's value for him there. Given his balanced nature he can complement whoever else we end up with. It's that 8 that is a big question, ultimately we should get someone decent, even if not my preferred pick in the Poo.

I would be shocked if Hewett got to our third pick. GWS showing a fair bit of interest.


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