No Oppo Supporters DEATH RIDE 2: A TEAGUE OF THEIR OWN! (Picks 3 and 21)

[Vhaluus]

Guys it took a 38 possession 4 goal game from Cripps for Carlton to pull off a win at their home deck.

How many times a year do you think Cripps can do that?

The lions are in a development phase which meant they were more interested in playing their own structures than playing a hard lockdown on Cripps. They also had the luxury of being far higher on the ladder than they expected so the coach wasn't forced to play reactive football to try and keep his career safe.

Cripps has struggled for nearly a month now with a hard tag and that's what any half decent side will deploy against him until he learns to break it, just like they did to Sloane.

 

[119others]

Can you please tell me which 2-3 more games they will have won?

Yeah sure mate. They have lost 2 games by under a goal (horks and the “unloseable” GC game), in addition to being a few goals up against a flag fancy halfway thru the last qtr and also being within a kick vs Saints halfway thru last qtr

 

[119others]

Another of your accounts pulled from storage huh Alex?

Erm how about you put up $10,000 on this one champ? Can ask Mods to verify.

Are you a man or mouse?

PS my brothers law firm can provide complimentary escrow services

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah sure mate. They have lost 2 games by under a goal (horks and the “unloseable” GC game), in addition to being a few goals up against a flag fancy halfway thru the last qtr and also being within a kick vs Saints halfway thru last qtr

That applies to almost every other team as well. It balances out to some extent over the course of a season for almost all teams.

A 2 win season so far to date, is an accurate reflection of where they are at as a Club.

 

[119others]

That applies to almost every other team as well. It balances out to some extent over the course of a season for almost all teams.

A 2 win season so far to date, is an accurate reflection of where they are at as a Club.

No, they are better than a wooden spooner this year.

Will check spooner odds when markets re-open later today but I will be very surprised if they are favourites now for the spoon

 

[GROTTO]

No, they are better than a wooden spooner this year.

Will check spooner odds when markets re-open later today but I will be very surprised if they are favourites now for the spoon

No they are not. Many teams in the past have won the spoon with more wins.

Why check the odds?

 

[119others]

No they are not. Many teams in the past have won the spoon with more wins.

Why check the odds?

Because I am proposing they are unlucky to be bottom at this point of the year. Further to that I am almost certain they will not finish with the wooden spoon. It goes without saying I would be ecstatic to be wrong on this and for them to hand us #1. Would go down as an absolute all time **** up and SOS would seemingly fall on his sword.

You disagree with my 2 propositions which is fine. Let’s see where the smart professional money sees things in a few hours.

 

[GROTTO]

Let’s see where the smart professional money sees things in a few hours.

Sorry can you clarify this statement for me?

 

[119others]

Sorry can you clarify this statement for me?

Cmon mate, are you taking the pi$$ here? My last 2 posts are saying when sports betting markets re-open for the wooden spoon at the conclusion of this round, I will be surprised if Blues are favourite.

 

[GROTTO]

Cmon mate, are you taking the pi$$ here? My last 2 posts are saying when sports betting markets re-open for the wooden spoon at the conclusion of this round, I will be surprised if Blues are favourite.

Do you understand how odds work with a bookie? If you did, then that would help you understand that should not be the criteria chosen to make your decision.

 

[119others]

Do you understand how odds work with a bookie? If you did, then that would help you understand that should not be the criteria chosen to make your decision.

I give up. Time will tell who is right and if Blues win the spoon.

 

[footy4ever]

Round 18 Blues v Suns will be huge. Unfortunately, I actually think Carlton will win that one.

I actually think Carlton will win round 19 as well, after coming off the round 18 win with their tails in the air.

Wait. Actually, I think Crows will lose rnd19 rather than Carlton win it. I've been there for most Crows v Carlton in Melb, and we can put on a putrid display without really trying to. That, or we smash the living suitcase out of them.

 

[GROTTO]

I give up. Time will tell who is right and if Blues win the spoon.

Thats ok, I will help you out.

The bookmaker frames the odds on an event and then releases that as a price for the market to bet on. It is the sheer weight of money that can and does move odds from coming in or moving out, that is why it can be a false indicator to use the bookies price as an indicator of likelihood. The money that comes in is from every punter/gambler so there is no discernible way to suggest it is smart money that is coming in for an event that is more likely to eventuate.

It may surprise you to know that very often the smart money will actually hit a market in order to move the price the other way so that they can hit it even farther in the opposite direction and exploit a vulnerability.

The statement that you raised that I challenged is when you state "they are better than a wooden spooner this year", and I am saying that they are not. There are teams in the past that have performed better and won more games than what Carlton have achieved this year.

You never asked if I thought Carlton could or wont win the spoon?

 

[boffo]

Please give all this chest thumping bull**** about betting and odds a miss on this forum. It's not interesting, and betting ads are already all over TV. Plus, there's a broader context of its addictive harm.

Sure, let's have debate and different opinions, why bring gambling into it? All I'm saying.

 

[Thetrader15]

Well done Swans... hopefully the Dees beat the Pies tomorrow. I would not rule them out. They played well against us last week and have some key players returning tomorrow. As mentioned beforehand, the Gold Coast are our concern. They are dropping off a lot. I suspect that the Blues are likely to finish above them. The Suns are also crying to the AFL for help. If they finish last, will they get a priority pick?

Can you imagine (I can) the AFL giving Caton and GC a priority pick at the start of the draft. We then slide in at pick 4.

Lock the border between SA and Vic

 

[GROTTO]

Please give all this chest thumping bull**** about betting and odds a miss on this forum. It's not interesting, and betting ads are already all over TV. Plus, there's a broader context of its addictive harm.

Sure, let's have debate and different opinions, why bring gambling into it? All I'm saying.

If you read the previous posts, I didnt bring it up, it was used as an argument erroneously by another poster to justify their statement. So settle down.

 

[GROTTO]

Another of your accounts pulled from storage huh Alex?

Thanks Sanders for confirming my thoughts.

Alex is dumpster diving for accounts, I see again.

 

[GROTTO]

Guys it took a 38 possession 4 goal game from Cripps for Carlton to pull off a win at their home deck.

How many times a year do you think Cripps can do that?

The lions are in a development phase which meant they were more interested in playing their own structures than playing a hard lockdown on Cripps. They also had the luxury of being far higher on the ladder than they expected so the coach wasn't forced to play reactive football to try and keep his career safe.

Cripps has struggled for nearly a month now with a hard tag and that's what any half decent side will deploy against him until he learns to break it, just like they did to Sloane.

He had 20 Bronwlow Votes last year with two 3 vote games, which incidentally happened to be the ones that Carlton won.

So I would say he has reached his quote for the year.

 

[Crow till I die]

I cannot comment on these two kids, so you may well be right. I know in the past, the draft positions of the kids do change even as much as a month out. I think there is a few variables at play in previous drafts with that said, like which teams have which picks and if its Vic team or not etc etc.

If we had Pick 1 last year, there is no way we would have taken Walsh with Pick 1 even though he will almost definitely end up the Rising Star.

Yes but that is short term..rankine is the much more talented player with a massive upside but we would have taken lukosius and he would have been the player our future team was built around

 

[LiquidCrow]

Can you imagine (I can) the AFL giving Caton and GC a priority pick at the start of the draft. We then slide in at pick 4.

Lock the border between SA and Vic

 

[Crow till I die]

No, they are better than a wooden spooner this year.

Will check spooner odds when markets re-open later today but I will be very surprised if they are favourites now for the spoon

I feel very confident that sydney will win enough games and i think with melbourne getting players back they will also win enough games. Same goes for the dogs. I think the spoon will be either carlton or GC

 

[GROTTO]

Yes but that is short term..rankine is the much more talented player with a massive upside but we would have taken lukosius and he would have been the player our future team was built around

Its all speculation. As I said I have seen this play out before over the years, very rarely do the top draft picks come that high when the draft is redone several years later.

Could turn out easily that Rozzee was the best player of the draft? Similarly it could turn out that either of the Kings were.

 

[Vhaluus]

Yeah sure mate. They have lost 2 games by under a goal (horks and the “unloseable” GC game), in addition to being a few goals up against a flag fancy halfway thru the last qtr and also being within a kick vs Saints halfway thru last qtr

If we're going to give Carlton credit for being a few goals up against Collingwood surely we take a win away from them for being so far down vs Brisbane last week?

 

[GROTTO]

If we're going to give Carlton credit for being a few goals up against Collingwood surely we take a win away from them for being so far down vs Brisbane last week?

On here you pick and choose what data to use to suit your narrative.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If we snag pick 2 thats realistically the best we can hope for. GC will finish bottom.

Blues could easily have another 2-3 wins at this point and have a number of very winnable games in the next 5-6 weeks

No it's not. Pick #2 is our worst case scenario! No way are Carlton getting out of the bottom 2.

Imo there is now a good battle between Carlton & GC for the spoon & pick #1 is still a strong possibility.