Do you like money? Here's the lock of the week.

[BlueGibbs2011]

For mine the best value is Richmond vs the Cats.

Everything reverses these days. Tigers were woeful last week so will be feral at the ball this weekend to prove 1) they are not soft and 2) they are a finals contender which their player list suggests.

On the other hand Geelong got up for their biggest match of the season last week vs Hawks to prove a point - they should be relaxed this week..ripe for a surprise and tigers to prove their own point.

But before you say i have lost my mind, i'm not saying go for a head to head match, i'm saying the best odds are the $2.05 for Richmond to get a 39.5 point head start. They will be rabid dogs this weekend - or well should be!!!!

I've gone
$200 on Richmond with 39.5 point head start @ $2.05 (safe bet)
$100 on Richmond with a 24.5 point head start @ $3.50 (risk bet)
$25 on Richmond head to head @ $8.00 (crazy hope bet)

Do yourself a favor and get on board, I don't want to be the only loser

 

[trossa]

Might go put a 20 on it I think, thanks mate

 

[Jesse Custer]

celtic_pride really does embarrass himself more than any other poster, doesn't he

On a consistent basis. As soon as you see his name, one automatically sighs and says 'not again'.

 

[The Big Woofer]

there's no "lock" in the Brisbane v Carlton game, but what we can be sure of is that carl are no $1.28 chance.....the game should be about carl $1.60 & Bris $2.20....hence i agree with the contention Bris are very good value & its worth a nibble on Bris high score @ $26 as it will be high scoring.

consider the recent history between these 2:

Blues ($1.28) v Lions ($3.45) – Dome (Saturday night)
Blues by 6 pts (Gabba)
Lions by 33 pts (TD)
Lions by 117 pts (Gabba)
Lions by 12 pts (TD)
Lions by 15 pts (Gabba)
Lions by 58 pts (TD)

 

[The Kipster]

On a consistent basis. As soon as you see his name, one automatically sighs and says 'not again'.

I'm hearing ya

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think freo will smash essendon, have no idea why just a feeling.

 

[shoe]

celtic_pride really does embarrass himself more than any other poster, doesn't he

Embers might have a say in that one

The Lions are a good chance in this game, wouldn't be surprised if it happens. Was going to have a flutter anyway.

 

[GameOver]

I sure as hell won't be putting money on this game. I think both teams will be good this year and this was the hardest game to pick for the week.

In the earlier posts people were argueing between Carlton and Brisbane's lists. I think talent wise Carlton is better, but only marginally. Brisbane has a better backline marginally. Merrett is extremely underrated just because he doesn't touch the ball a lot. Spoils are almost as good as marks in the backline. Brisbane wins the forward line dual because they have more than one option but Carlton wins the midfield. If they can get first use of the ball, Carlton will win. I have gone with Brisbane in one tipping comp and Carlton in the other, it looks to be that close.

 

[celtic_pride]

I think that's good value. I'm tipping the Lions. Just cause their players don't have the hype that surrounds the Blues, doesn't mean they aren't as good.

Forward line is better.
Backline is better.
Midfield still has Power, Black (will he play?)
Decent rucks.

They should win.

LOL ... Brisbane lost to Melbourne last year, and played fairly ordinary football thoughout the pre season (they couldn't even beat an Essendon side in the nab cup that is clearly going to be bottom 3 material this season, although granted they had a lot of their best players missing from that game)

On Exposed form (nothing to do with the currents lists btw, but you are only as good as your last game) Carlton deserve to go into this clash warm favourites ...

I honestly question Brisbane's capacity to contain our midfield, it's not as if players like Simon Black and Luke Power have great defensive/tagging sides to their game now is it ??

 

[SASQUATCH09]

Or any game for that matter. Betting on footy is a mugs game.

Disagree. Some people think beting in general is a mugs game but over the past few years I think footy is the way to go.

Every now and then a value bet pops up and you look twice to see if you've read it wrong. Brisbane in this case is not one of those situaions and I'll be leaving this game alone all together. I'm not saying they can't win and if they do I doubt Carlton would go down at home by more than 40 points by there is nothing suggesting that Carlton wouldn't win this game by a similar margin.

This week I like Geelong by 45 or more at $1.90

 

[celtic_pride]

Disagree. Some people think beting in general is a mugs game but over the past few years I think footy is the way to go.

Every now and then a value bet pops up and you look twice to see if you've read it wrong. Brisbane in this case is not one of those situaions and I'll be leaving this game alone all together. I'm not saying they can't win and if they do I doubt Carlton would go down at home by more than 40 points by there is nothing suggesting that Carlton wouldn't win this game by a similar margin.

This week I like Geelong by 45 or more at $1.90

I honestly reckon Melbourne under 39.5 or for the W is actually good value this week, they have just blooded some amazing new talent into their side, I think Bailey is getting a proper structured gameplan under place, and don't forget, apart from last year, they have had a great recent record against Collingwood ..

Collingwood also have a propensity to lose games they are heavily favoured to win, happened several times last year.

 

[BlueDW]

If Travis plays as well as he did last week, we're in with a big chance. I have a feeling we're going to miss Brennan but.

Going to be a cracker!

I hope you arent pinning your hopes on Johnstone to play two good games in a row. Last time he did that was back in 2002 I reckon, and the last time we played the Lions, Russell smashed the former number one draft pick!

Black is the key, if we can keep him reasonably quiet, Cartlon will have too much grunt in the middle for the Lions. Would be much more confident at the "G" though.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

I reckon the lock of the week is the Doggies at -13.5pts at $1.90. The Dogs will destroy North.

Multi up on Dogs -13.5pts, Brisbane + 21.5pts and Collingwood -31.5pts.

 

[davis_756]

I reckon the lock of the week is the Doggies at -13.5pts at $1.90. The Dogs will destroy North.

Multi up on Dogs -13.5pts, Brisbane + 21.5pts and Collingwood -31.5pts.

Thats reverse logic at its finest, Your assuming the dogs will win comfortably when the roos have had the wood over them for a while and then the reverse with Brisbane having the wood over us being the reason you tipped them.

The collingwood 32 point win isn't a safe bet either after the way melbourne played last week and collingwood weren't impressive at all vs adelaide.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Thats reverse logic at its finest, Your assuming the dogs will win comfortably when the roos have had the wood over them for a while and then the reverse with Brisbane having the wood over us being the reason you tipped them.

The collingwood 32 point win isn't a safe bet either after the way melbourne played last week and collingwood weren't impressive at all vs adelaide.

Adelaide hadnt beaten Collingwood at the MCG in 10 years, who cares about the past.
Go on current form. I didnt say Brissie had the wood over them either. I just think a 21 point head start in a 50/50 match is worth it.
Collingwood should win comfortably if it really wants to be a finals team.

 

[Will.B.Worth.Da.Waite]

This thread is hilarious - exact same shit was said about us and Richmond. You'd think people would learn after being shamed, but nope, haven't realised yet that sometimes its best to shut up and wait for the game to happen

 

[thestew]

carlton are a finals locks? i am not arguin that you have a decent chance but that kind of arrogance is laughable.

cheers for the tip, might just follow up on it.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

LOL ... What a joke of a bet .

The best value is Carlton @ over 39.5 ... Brisbane are a bottom 6 side (on paper) and Carlton are finals locks ..

Lol, one win over a bottom two side and they're finals locks. Easily pleased these Blues supporters.

Imagine they do beat the Lions, they'll be flag locks. Get on it, you read it here first

 

[Will.B.Worth.Da.Waite]

Lol, one win over a bottom two side and they're finals locks. Easily pleased these Blues supporters.

Imagine they do beat the Lions, they'll be flag locks. Get on it, you read it here first

We havn't played Sydney or Melbourne yet?

Isn't it funny how quick people's opinions change. This time last week Richmond were not only certainties for the finals, but certainties to show everyone how bad Carlton were. People here never learn

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

We havn't played Sydney or Melbourne yet?

Isn't it funny how quick people's opinions change. This time last week Richmond were not only certainties for the finals, but certainties to show everyone how bad Carlton were. People here never learn

No need for the stupid "Sydney or Melbourne" comment. Carlton haven't beaten Sydney for 11 games straight, but this isn't about Sydney.

I'm not sure who had Richmond as finals certainties last week, but the fact remains they've played like a bottom 2 side for a long time now (I realise they ended last year quite well) but now a win over them makes a team a finals lock. Weird?

You make the comment about people who don't learn, but that can be applied to many of your fellow supporters who've been telling us how Carlton are back as a threat, **** the rest etc. Carlton might make the 8, but they haven't yet, so they're not back.

I wasn't even arrogant after my team won a flag and contested another GF, but kudos to the highly optimistic Carlton fans I guess. Hopefully for your sake the confidence is justified, otherwise you'll cop it from everyone.

 

[Helix]

I honestly question Brisbane's capacity to contain our midfield, it's not as if players like Simon Black and Luke Power have great defensive/tagging sides to their game now is it ??

Lol, Black and Power won't be tagging anyone. Why would they? Your midfield, with the exception of Judd, is not as good as Brisbane's. Judd will receive a tag from someone, but it wont be from Black or Power. You had it all your own way last week, but you won't be the hardest at the footy this week.

 

[sherrin_footy]

in my honest opinion, i think the lions should be a tiny bit shorter in the odds.
I believe the game could go either way, its perfectly balanced. Maybe a slight home ground advantage to the blues.

comparing the top tier midfielders they basicly break even
black -> judd
power -> murphy
johnstone -> gibbs



im keen for the game as it should be very even, anyone who thinks else wise is more than likely just bias.

 

[shoe]

in my honest opinion, i think the lions should be a tiny bit shorter in the odds.
I believe the game could go either way, its perfectly balanced. Maybe a slight home ground advantage to the blues.

comparing the top tier midfielders they basicly break even
black -> judd
power -> murphy
johnstone -> gibbs



im keen for the game as it should be very even, anyone who thinks else wise is more than likely just bias.

Blues should be shorter cos of recent form on paper.
Smashing a team that was tipped to make finals by 83 points > barely beating last year's near wooden spooners.

 

[lions_den]

LOL ... Brisbane lost to Melbourne last year, and played fairly ordinary football thoughout the pre season (they couldn't even beat an Essendon side in the nab cup that is clearly going to be bottom 3 material this season, although granted they had a lot of their best players missing from that game)

On Exposed form (nothing to do with the currents lists btw, but you are only as good as your last game) Carlton deserve to go into this clash warm favourites ...

I honestly question Brisbane's capacity to contain our midfield, it's not as if players like Simon Black and Luke Power have great defensive/tagging sides to their game now is it ??

Do you ever not self pwn yourself everytime you post?

 

[The Kipster]

Do you ever not self pwn yourself everytime you post?

The answer is a big fat NO...you should read his self pwnage in the Bay...it is frightening