eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: A rusty start for the Dons against Fremantle was doubled down by Shaun McKernan going down with what seems like a serious hamstring injury, however the Bombers recovered well to record a 5 goal win against the Dockers. Orazio Fantasia and Mitch Brown were excellent for the Bombers, kicking 8 goals between them whilst Zach Merrett had 28 disposals through the middle.
Sydney: Raced out to a 29 point lead early against Gold Coast but going goalless during the two middle stanza's allowed Gold Coast to run away to a four goal drought breaking win. Josh Kennedy was prolific in the middle with 33 disposals and a whopping 10 clearances whilst Tom Papley was lively inside 50, kicking 3 goals for the Swans.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 0-5 Sydney
Form Guide
Essendon: 4W 1L
Sydney: 2W 3L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.84
Sydney: $1.97
Line: 1.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Sydney
B: Hurley - Hartley - McNiece
F: McCartin - Cameron - Papley
HB: Goddard - Dea - Saad
HF: Hayward - Franklin - Parker
C: McGrath - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Jones - Kennedy - Florent
HF: Zaharakis - Brown - McDonald-Tipungwuti
HB: Rampe - Grundy - Lloyd
F: Fantasia - Hooker - Stewart
B: Smith - Aliir - Marsh
R: Bellchambers - D Smith - Heppell
R: Sinclair - Hewett - Heeney
I: Myers - Baguley - Guelfi - Parish
I: Dawson - O'Riordan - Ronke - Cunningham
Essendon in: Stewart, Hartley; Out: McKernan (inj), Colyer (omit)
Sydney in: Grundy, Dawson; Out: Newman (omit), Fox (omit)
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line dipped significantly for forward efficiency so far this season, rating of 23%, well below the 28% they had in 2017. Sydney's defence is the best in the league in preventing opposition kicking goals when they enter the 50, conceding a goal only 18% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Dane Rampe is the main man coming out of defence for the Swans, and a return from Heath Grundy could be important to quell Cale Hooker, who is likely to move forward with the injury to Shaun McKernan for the Bombers. Orazio Fantasia presents to be another important figure for the Dons, the small forward kicking 16 goals in 10 games this season and returning with 5 goals against Fremantle, but will face the toughest small defender in the league in Nick Smith, an exciting battle for the game.
Midfield/rucks battle
The midfield has been the big improvement for Essendon from round 9 onwards, so much so that they've climbed to 2nd in terms of clearance differential from 15th and 6th in contested possession from 14th. Sydney have had a drop off in this area this year, currently 10th and 7th in these areas respectively when they usually are up in the top 4 in both areas. Josh Kennedy will be the most important player for the Swans in the middle, their captain enjoys playing Essendon, averaging a whopping 33 disposals against the Bombers from the last 5 games, and will be a good battle with Dyson Heppell who has lifted in the past 8 games. Zach Merrett and Devon Smith will also be important for the quality they've brought inside the middle, but don't underestimate the presence of Isaac Heeney in the middle for the Swans who is having a year that seems to be flying under the radar a bit, and George Hewett will likely tag the former of the Essendon duo this year. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers is having a career best year in both hitouts to advantage and around the ground, however so is Callum Sinclair. May be critical to see who wins the ball out of the middle.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been under a lot of pressure this season, but has improved on what they were doing last season, conceding a goal 22% of the time it enters defensive 50. Sydney have been an above average forward line this year, averaging a tad over 24% in terms of goals/inside 50. The main man for the Swans here is, as usual, Buddy Franklin, who loves feasting on Essendon, the superstar averaging 5 goals/game against the Bombers. Michael Hurley is the obvious match up however Michael Hartley managed to be the first Don to keep him goalless ever. Sydney have a trio of impressive small forwards in Tom Papley, Will Hayward and Ben Ronke have been an impressive 3 player punch as small forwards for Sydney, and the likes of Ben McNiece, Matt Dea and Adam Saad respectively, will be an interesting battle.
X-Factor Player
Oliver Florent is a second year player who has quietly put in a very good year for the Swans. He's a class unit and his kicking skills are among the best in the Sydney side. Watch this space.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. When Essendon win the clearances they win the game the vast majority of the time, and when they lose they rarely get the win.
Sydney: Defensive conversion. Sydney are at their best when they're stopping the opposition getting much inside 50. Need to step this up against the Dons.
Tip
I want to get the drought breaking win, but I don't see it. Swans by 27
Essendon: A rusty start for the Dons against Fremantle was doubled down by Shaun McKernan going down with what seems like a serious hamstring injury, however the Bombers recovered well to record a 5 goal win against the Dockers. Orazio Fantasia and Mitch Brown were excellent for the Bombers, kicking 8 goals between them whilst Zach Merrett had 28 disposals through the middle.
Sydney: Raced out to a 29 point lead early against Gold Coast but going goalless during the two middle stanza's allowed Gold Coast to run away to a four goal drought breaking win. Josh Kennedy was prolific in the middle with 33 disposals and a whopping 10 clearances whilst Tom Papley was lively inside 50, kicking 3 goals for the Swans.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 0-5 Sydney
Form Guide
Essendon: 4W 1L
Sydney: 2W 3L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.84
Sydney: $1.97
Line: 1.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Sydney
B: Hurley - Hartley - McNiece
F: McCartin - Cameron - Papley
HB: Goddard - Dea - Saad
HF: Hayward - Franklin - Parker
C: McGrath - Langford - Z Merrett
C: Jones - Kennedy - Florent
HF: Zaharakis - Brown - McDonald-Tipungwuti
HB: Rampe - Grundy - Lloyd
F: Fantasia - Hooker - Stewart
B: Smith - Aliir - Marsh
R: Bellchambers - D Smith - Heppell
R: Sinclair - Hewett - Heeney
I: Myers - Baguley - Guelfi - Parish
I: Dawson - O'Riordan - Ronke - Cunningham
Essendon in: Stewart, Hartley; Out: McKernan (inj), Colyer (omit)
Sydney in: Grundy, Dawson; Out: Newman (omit), Fox (omit)
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line dipped significantly for forward efficiency so far this season, rating of 23%, well below the 28% they had in 2017. Sydney's defence is the best in the league in preventing opposition kicking goals when they enter the 50, conceding a goal only 18% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Dane Rampe is the main man coming out of defence for the Swans, and a return from Heath Grundy could be important to quell Cale Hooker, who is likely to move forward with the injury to Shaun McKernan for the Bombers. Orazio Fantasia presents to be another important figure for the Dons, the small forward kicking 16 goals in 10 games this season and returning with 5 goals against Fremantle, but will face the toughest small defender in the league in Nick Smith, an exciting battle for the game.
Midfield/rucks battle
The midfield has been the big improvement for Essendon from round 9 onwards, so much so that they've climbed to 2nd in terms of clearance differential from 15th and 6th in contested possession from 14th. Sydney have had a drop off in this area this year, currently 10th and 7th in these areas respectively when they usually are up in the top 4 in both areas. Josh Kennedy will be the most important player for the Swans in the middle, their captain enjoys playing Essendon, averaging a whopping 33 disposals against the Bombers from the last 5 games, and will be a good battle with Dyson Heppell who has lifted in the past 8 games. Zach Merrett and Devon Smith will also be important for the quality they've brought inside the middle, but don't underestimate the presence of Isaac Heeney in the middle for the Swans who is having a year that seems to be flying under the radar a bit, and George Hewett will likely tag the former of the Essendon duo this year. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers is having a career best year in both hitouts to advantage and around the ground, however so is Callum Sinclair. May be critical to see who wins the ball out of the middle.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been under a lot of pressure this season, but has improved on what they were doing last season, conceding a goal 22% of the time it enters defensive 50. Sydney have been an above average forward line this year, averaging a tad over 24% in terms of goals/inside 50. The main man for the Swans here is, as usual, Buddy Franklin, who loves feasting on Essendon, the superstar averaging 5 goals/game against the Bombers. Michael Hurley is the obvious match up however Michael Hartley managed to be the first Don to keep him goalless ever. Sydney have a trio of impressive small forwards in Tom Papley, Will Hayward and Ben Ronke have been an impressive 3 player punch as small forwards for Sydney, and the likes of Ben McNiece, Matt Dea and Adam Saad respectively, will be an interesting battle.
X-Factor Player
Oliver Florent is a second year player who has quietly put in a very good year for the Swans. He's a class unit and his kicking skills are among the best in the Sydney side. Watch this space.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. When Essendon win the clearances they win the game the vast majority of the time, and when they lose they rarely get the win.
Sydney: Defensive conversion. Sydney are at their best when they're stopping the opposition getting much inside 50. Need to step this up against the Dons.
Tip
I want to get the drought breaking win, but I don't see it. Swans by 27
