Everyone is underestimating us

[shawshankin]

It seems to me that it's more a case of Adelaide fans overestimating the talent we have on our list rather than anyone else underestimating us.

Lets face it, there are two ways youngsters can get recognised. Firstly, they can perform on the field of play, proving beyond all doubt that they have what it takes. Collingwood's kids did that this year. Secondly, they can be highly rated draft selections - these are usually highly talented, but can fail to deliver. Melbourne's list is full of these kids - high draft picks who have yet to deliver (but may do so in the future). Our list has neither.

Consider what our youngsters have actually achieved, versus what their Adelaide Board reputation is... For the purpose of this exercise I'm going to define a youngster as a player currently aged 23 or under (we have 25 such players on our list).
Richard Douglas - Reputation justified. Was our 1st draft selection in 2005 and has taken until 2010 to actually show why. Had a good season in 2010, winning the B&F award, but still needs to prove that it wasn't a one-off.
Kurt Tippett - With 55 & 46 goals in the last 2 seasons, Tippett is one of the few "youngsters" who have put the runs on the board.
Sam Jacobs - Overrated based on his output so far. Has potential, but with only 17 games to date his output does not match his reputation.
David Mackay - Overrated. Went backwards in 2010.
Ricky Henderson - Overrated. Has played 12 games, for 13 goals and an average of 13.2 disposals. Has potential, but output to date does not justify his reputation.
Brodie Martin - Overrated. Speed merchant who has only played 4 games so far. One good performance (28 disposals vs St Kilda) does not a career make. Has potential, but output to date does not justify his reputation.
James Sellar - Not highly rated by anyone. 4 years on the list and he really hasn't achieved much at all to date.
Andrew Otten - Highly Rated appropriately, having come 2nd in the RS award in 2009. It remains to be seen how well he returns from his knee injury.
Matthew Jaensch - Overrated. Played 11 games, half of them as a forward, yet only scored a goal in 3 games. Has a magnificent kick, but tends to go missing.
Tony Armstrong - Not highly rated and correctly so, based on his limited performances so far.
Myke Cook - Not highly rated and appears unlikely to make it based on 2010 performances.
Jared Petrenko - Overrated. Arguably played out of position, but has shown noting in any of his AFL games to suggest that he has a long term career ahead of him.
Rory Sloane - Overrated. Looked good in the 2nd half of 2010, but his reputation still exceeds his output to date by a significant margin.
Patrick Dangerfield - Severely overrated. Considering that his reputation on this board is paralleled only by Chris Judd, the kid is on a hiding to nothing. He didn't improve a whole lot in 2010 and still needs to learn how to win more of the ball if he is to have the impact expected of him.
Taylor Walker - Severely overrated. The most overrated player on our entire list. Rated as highly as Modra, Walker is lazy and inconsistent and still has a LOT of work to do before he can even to achieve the standards of Ken McGregor or Ian Perrie.
William Young - Slightly underrated. His lack of reputation belies his SANFL performances which have been significantly better than many (most) of his more highly rated peers.
Phil Davis - Severely overrated. To date Davis has shown himself to be a more than adequate "stopper". However, he is also relatively immobile and does not contribute much offensively at all. These weaknesses will be exposed in 2011 and he needs to add significantly to his game if he is to justify his reputation as our "next big thing" in defence.
Shaun McKernan - Severely overrated. Played just 1 AFL game in 2009 and looked completely out of his depth. Played poorly for most of the year in the SANFL in 2010, yet in 2011 he's expected to be our #2 ruckman? This is just bizarre.
Luke Thompson - Hard to judge. Doesn't have a reputation outside the Adelaide Board because nobody has heard of him. Did enough to get himself onto the senior list after 12 months as a rookie, so his Adelaide Board reputation is probably justified.
Sam Shaw - Overrated. Spent (almost) the entire year on the injury list, so has no runs on the board at all.
James Craig - No reputation to speak of one way or the other.
Daniel Talia - Overrated. Spent (almost) the entire year on the injury list, so has no runs on the board at all.
Jack Gunston - No real reputation. Played 2 AFL games, doing a passable impersonation of a headless chicken. Did well enough for Centrals to justify AFL selection though, so it's not all bad.
Brodie Smith - Overrated. He's only been on our list for 4 days and he's already the next big thing, despite having never played an AFL game.
Jarryd Lyons - No real reputation. Late pick, on the list for 4 days. Nobody has any inflated expectations just yet.


So.. we have the following:
Highly Rated and Justified: 2
Severely Overrated: 4
Overrated: 10
Lower Reputation Justified: 2
Not Highly Rated: 6
Underrated: 1

We have just 2 players who have actual achievements which support the reputations they have built. Only 10 of 25 have reputations which are commensurate with their achievements (and 8 of these are not highly rated).

On the other hand we have 4 players who are severely overrated, 4 of our highest profile youngsters, and a further 10 who have big reputations with no achievements to support them.

Most of these youngsters are still in the formative stages of their careers. It's quite possible that they will indeed reach the peaks indicated by their inflated reputations, but that's clearly not the case right now.

Like Crow-mo, I really don't care what everyone else thinks. If our kids are as good as we think then we'll be proven right. If they're not (and many of them aren't) then we'll be proven wrong. Time will tell, but it's not worth getting all upset about it.

This post is gonna start WW3. perhaps a better way of describing most of the true youngsters (games/age wise) - ie jaensch, martin, sloane, henderson, smith, talia, gunston, McKernan etc would be unproven.

Completely agree with you on danger and davis though. both handy but danger needs to get more of it to be considered elite - which i think he will. davis is showing himself as an accomplished stopper - aka presty with a bit more talent maybe?

 

[adelaidecrows]

Vador I think your assessment of Taylor Walker is way too harsh. He is still a very raw talent. he is only 19/20 and has come from a background of being a flashy forward. He has had to learn an ultra defensive / hard running game which he is not finding very natural. He has showed plenty of glimpses of the type of game he can provide, its just a matter of time before he starts providing it.

In my honest assessment of what you wrote I think you are confusing recognition of potential with actual performances. When henderson, jaensch, walker and dangerfield take the field noone with footy brains expects them to rip an experienced opposition to peices at this stage in their career.

I dont think Dangerfield is overrated i think he is confused and is playing a role that just hasnt suited him. I dont think he is a natural forward and finds it hard to get into games. I think in 2011 if he can play a majority of time in the midfield we will finally see what he can do.

 

[shawshankin]

more relevant to the post perhaps is that there is nothing wrong with being underrated - far better than being overrated: look at carlton. Had maybe the best young list in the comp for the past 5 years with gibbs, murphy, kreuzer and walker, then judd coming in and now with no fevola theyre looking like not realising their potential.

Id be more worried if our youngsters were in the league of say melbournes who are getting talked up to be the next invincibles - if they dont make it then everyone thinks the club is a joke...and even if they do make it, it was due to a fluke bunch of gun players and not due to hard work, good coaching etc

 

[ftmch]

So.. we have the following***:
Highly Rated and Justified: 2
Severely Overrated: 4
Overrated: 10
Lower Reputation Justified: 2
Not Highly Rated: 6
Underrated: 1

*** ...in your opinion.

A moderator you may be but Im pretty sure that doesn't make you the definitive authority on whether our young players are overrated, underrated or otherwise. For mine, your assessment is bollocks.

The reality is most people (though I agree not all) will be 'rating' our young players based on their output and their potential based on what can be reasonably expected of players their age and with comparable experience.

On this front, I believe the hype around several of our young guys (again, not all) is very much justified (see Phil Davis).

 

[WALL-e]

Vader's assessments (correct me if wrong Vader) weren't based on whether or not the draftee's have been successful thus far, he's just comparing their output to date vs their BF hype.

As is the nature of young players, most of ours are overrated.

Dangerfield (like Walker) has massive ratings, yet this is due mostly to flashes of brilliance and potential. At the moment he's a burst player, yet because he has the potential to be a genuine gun, he's hyped and treated as such.

Vader was just brutally honest. Don't think he was having a go at our players, more bringing expectation of current performance back into line, as 'potential' can snowball.

On guys like Hendo and our other rookies, they'll get hype as though they consistantly tear games up. Yet that hype is again based on glimpses.

 

[ftmch]

Brutally honest doesn't equate to brutally right.

Vader's post smacks of the pendulum effect, where in a bid to correct perceptions that I agree are in places unrealistic, it overcompensates in the other direction.

To suggest that Phil Davis is "seriously overrated", or even Sloaney "overrated" is a case in point. The 'rating' of these players by most on this board is for the most part measured and by no means over the top, based on what they have produced to date and in the context of their age and relative experience.

 

[wmvaux]

I think the problem is Adelaide supporters over rate their team, most seem to think they are a top 4 team, they expected to be a threat for the 2010 Premiership.

They had a poor start to the year and fans were asking for the coaches head, I think after some good wins they realised it was a bit hasty to go sacking the coach.
they went from 15th to 11th with some improvement and yes they beat Geelong, went close to Collingwood and beat St.Kilda in the last game, but I have no doubt both the Collingwood and St.Kilda games were against teams that weren't focused on beating Adelaide, I'd be more concerned about the teams they did beat....Brisbane, West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Melbourne...etc Teams that struggled to win games, so there still is some ground to make up on other teams.

Adelaide have been a team that is always hard to beat, have been well coached and haven't bottomed out.

I think Adelaide have a lot of respect in the football community about how they run and the performances they have given as a football club.

Because of where they generally finish, they haven't been able to draft top 5 picks for example, but generally have drafted well for many years.

Adelaide can recover from losing 4 greats that they lost this year, but they need players to step up and cover the holes created, I think the 3 that will be hardest to cover is McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards. Goodwin was solid in 2010 and when he played well, Adelaide played well, he was easily in the top 3 best players for the season, Goodwin could play back, middle and forward with equal effect, very hard to replace. McLeod and Edwards to a lesser extent, but are more capable of covering.

Vince went backwards in 2010 and the midfield is where I see Adelaide lacking slightly, they really need at least 2 players to step up in 2011 in their midfield to be able to win enough of the ball to get down to their forwards.

Any team wanting to be a top 4 team needs at least 5 players who can kick 20 or more goals in a season, if you don't have that, you pretty much can't get a top 4 spot. Generally the top teams can have up to 9 players, so that's where Adelaide need to look to see who are going to be those 5 plus players who can kick 20 or more goals for the season.... Kurt Tippett, Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield, Jason Porplyzia, Richard Douglas & Chris Knights are the obvious top 6 players who could be in this group, I would have no doubts that if all they players get there, Adelaide would be right in the mix, this is where I think having a strong midfield would really go a long way to Adelaide getting the ball to these forwards.

Edwards and Goodwin were in your best 4 in 2009 and 2010, this is where players need to step up, there are some promising kids, but not at the same level, Andy Otten in 2009 as good a year as he had, wasn't in the top 15 best players, so if your looking at him, he needs a huge improvement to get the the top 4 players for the team. I also think Bock is a loss down back although you didn't lose to much in defence in 2010, but just having that extra big back against teams with 3 tall forwards.

I think Adelaide should be the team that can improve more than any other team, but I think 5th -8th is more realistic than a top 4 spot.

As I say if the improvement in the midfield is there which means Thompson, Vince which are the 2 stand outs, need at least another 2 players to play to the same level or better to be able to make the difference....maybe MacKay and Van Berlo need break out years, I think the others are either too old or too young.

 

[WALL-e]

But in saying Phil is 'seriously overated' means currently his output has been good enough to put into the 22, and do well. Where as you'll see praise as though he is AA worthy.

As for saying in context of their age, I think that's where Vader's arguement comes in. You don't get any goals for potential or for having a young squad. He's comparing praise with direct performance, not future performance.

Keep in mind I'm a massive draft head, a huge Phil fan and I, as much as anyone, love talking future potential etc. But this is all subjective and 'what if' based.

If you were comparing our kids on a output for time formula, you'd see guys like Sloaney and Davis doing quite well.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

Like Crow-mo, I really don't care what everyone else thinks.

Most relevant thing from your post. Therefore......all this deserves is a MEH.

 

[ftmch]

But in saying Phil is 'seriously overated' means currently his output has been good enough to put into the 22, and do well. Where as you'll see praise as though he is AA worthy.

As for saying in context of their age, I think that's where Vader's arguement comes in. You don't get any goals for potential or for having a young squad. He's comparing praise with direct performance, not future performance.

Keep in mind I'm a massive draft head, a huge Phil fan and I, as much as anyone, love talking future potential etc. But this is all subjective and 'what if' based.

If you were comparing our kids on a output for time formula, you'd see guys like Sloaney and Davis doing quite well.

In the best Manuel voice I can muster...

'Ke'h?'

 

[WALL-e]

Edwards and Goodwin were in your best 4 in 2009 and 2010

I'll pull you up here mate, Edwards didn't play for the majority of 2010.

 

[WALL-e]

In the best Manuel voice I can muster...

'Ke'h?'

Is no rat, is Siberian Hampster....

I guess the summation of 'my tale' on Vader's summary is that he only considers guys like Walker and Danger overated in comparrison to the LARGE amount of hype they receive on this board. He doesn't think they're bad players in the slightest.

 

[Vader]

It's all about reputation vs achievements. So far very few of our youngsters have actually achieved much of anything, though many show a great deal of potential - and may indeed go on to fulfil that potential.

Despite not having actually achieved anything to date, several of them have reputations on this board which would make you believe that they're already champions of the game. How many times have you read posts stating that Dangermouse will win the Brownlow (or several of them)? How many posts suggesting that Walker is the greatest forward since Modra? How many posts have you read where McKernan is certain to be our 2nd ruckman in 2011, despite having done precisely nothing to justify this in either 2009 or 2010?

I'm certainly not writing any of the kids off. For the most part they're still young and learning the game. I just think that people need to take off the rose coloured glasses every now and again and look at things a little more realistically.

And yes, there might be a little bit of "pendulum effect" at work here...

 

[wmvaux]

I'll pull you up here mate, Edwards didn't play for the majority of 2010.

He played 10 games and was one of your best players, his stats prove that.

 

[McCavity]

He played 10 games and was one of your best players, his stats prove that.

10 from 22 does not constitute a majority.

 

[crowsarethebest]

I think we do generally overrate our list... The current output of our youngsters. Doesn't match the expectations and rating that our supporters give our players. Our kids do have potential but so does every other club. 2011 will be a year where the kids and our better players such as porps, knights and Vince have to step up otherwise we could be in for a long year. We need a genuine superstar, at the moment we don't have one.

 

[WALL-e]

He played 10 games and was one of your best players, his stats prove that.

So as I said, he didn't play for the majority of the year. He also retired because he didn't want to go back to the SANFL to regain form. Doesn't sound like the type in your 'top 4'.

 

[SugarShane]

He played 10 games and was one of your best players, his stats prove that.

He performed in his retirement game, his other 9 were average at best.

 

[srv23]

Any team wanting to be a top 4 team needs at least 5 players who can kick 20 or more goals in a season, if you don't have that, you pretty much can't get a top 4 spot. Generally the top teams can have up to 9 players, so that's where Adelaide need to look to see who are going to be those 5 plus players who can kick 20 or more goals for the season.... Kurt Tippett, Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield, Jason Porplyzia, Richard Douglas & Chris Knights are the obvious top 6 players who could be in this group, I would have no doubts that if all they players get there, Adelaide would be right in the mix, this is where I think having a strong midfield would really go a long way to Adelaide getting the ball to these forwards.

.

You do realise that all of those players you mentioned have all already kicked 20+ goals in a season before?

 

[power09]

Only issue there is that when we had all 3, we were losing. Then as the season went on and those 3 dropped out, we started winning.

ill just have to take ur word for that seeing ur an adelaide supporter and u probably remember better than me but i swear in 09, Edwards was more than solid all year, goodwin was an AA and Mcload was still getting tagged and providing run and had good disposal by foot. and they all were experienced level headed players that could be counted on to do stuff like kick clutch goals.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

ill just have to take ur word for that seeing ur an adelaide supporter and u probably remember better than me but i swear in 09, Edwards was more than solid all year, goodwin was an AA and Mcload was still getting tagged and providing run and had good disposal by foot. and they all were experienced level headed players that could be counted on to do stuff like kick clutch goals.

If only SugerShane was talking about 2009. In 2010 when all 3 were playing, we lost games, once they stopped playing and the younger guys on the list got the opportunity to play....we started to win a few games.

 

[wmvaux]

So as I said, he didn't play for the majority of the year. He also retired because he didn't want to go back to the SANFL to regain form. Doesn't sound like the type in your 'top 4'.

Ok, yes it's not the majority of games, but in his 10 games he averaged 22.6 disposals per game the 4th best of the whole list for the year and his efficiency is up there too.

He performed in his retirement game, his other 9 were average at best.

You forget quick, He was Adelaide's best against Freo in R1, was Adelaide's best against Carlton in R4, R5.... 27 touches, Crows best again in R6 against Port, 20 touches in R8 and 32 touches a 2 goals in his last game against Freo in R11. All in all not bad considering how the team was travelling. 4 best on grounds out of 10 for the Crows.... not bad for someone who was average

You do realise that all of those players you mentioned have all already kicked 20+ goals in a season before?

Yes I do realise this, that's why I listed them, but can they all do it in 2011 with a midfield that is slightly weaker? Or will a midfielder or 2 step up to help get the ball down there often enough.

 

[jenny61_99]

ill just have to take ur word for that seeing ur an adelaide supporter and u probably remember better than me but i swear in 09, Edwards was more than solid all year, goodwin was an AA and Mcload was still getting tagged and providing run and had good disposal by foot. and they all were experienced level headed players that could be counted on to do stuff like kick clutch goals.

No doubt that Edwards was certainly more than solid in 09. I think we all thought he'd continue on where he'd left off for 2010, but unfortunately that was far from the truth. People were calling for him to be dropped back to the SANFL long before he was, and when he was, he chucked a wobbly and retired. A change of heart by the coach saw him come back in for his farewell game - an outstanding final performance that saw him play exactly how we all thought he would for the previous matches.

I think most of us - coaches/club included - thought our senior boys would have one last hurrah in 2010, with the junior players stepping up to fill their kpp shoes. Unfortunately we had an injury-filled pre-season that saw us start the year with injured players in the double-digits, and far too much pressure on these three senior players. The pressure proved fatal and we saw the resulting crash and burn. For the majority of this season, we didn't have them on the field so their absence next year will not be felt as you might think.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

You forget quick, He was Adelaide's best against Freo in R1, was Adelaide's best against Carlton in R4, R5.... 27 touches, Crows best again in R6 against Port, 20 touches in R8 and 32 touches a 2 goals in his last game against Freo in R11. All in all not bad considering how the team was travelling. 4 best on grounds out of 10 for the Crows.... not bad for someone who was average

Oh shut up, no he wasn't.

Just because he got heaps of touches, doesn't mean diddly squat. He may have got it a heap of times, but he did **** all with it and statistics are not a true way of valuing how well someone has played. He was terribly out of form and in the first 8 or 9 round this year (2010) the AFC chucked the ball around with zero accountability for where it went. Just go and watch the games again and you will see how poor his disposals were. He was consistently miles behind the play and his man and ended up being forced into a back pocket against the Brisbane Lions.

2010 was a shocking year for Tyson.

 

[jenny61_99]

Ok, yes it's not the majority of games, but in his 10 games he averaged 22.6 disposals per game the 4th best of the whole list for the year and his efficiency is up there too.



You forget quick, He was Adelaide's best against Freo in R1, was Adelaide's best against Carlton in R4, R5.... 27 touches, Crows best again in R6 against Port, 20 touches in R8 and 32 touches a 2 goals in his last game against Freo in R11. All in all not bad considering how the team was travelling. 4 best on grounds out of 10 for the Crows.... not bad for someone who was average



Yes I do realise this, that's why I listed them, but can they all do it in 2011 with a midfield that is slightly weaker? Or will a midfielder or 2 step up to help get the ball down there often enough.

Statistics do not tell the whole story. In those first 6 games we truly sucked. Lots of handballs to players under pressure and Edwards was one of the worst offenders. His only good game for the season was his last. He was no way best on ground in those other games. In fact I'd bet we had very few BOG's out of the entire squad.