Hank93
Brownlow Medallist
When: Saturday, April 1 @ 1:15pm CST
Weather: 19 degrees, possible shower, light winds 15-20km/h during the day.
Odds: Adelaide $1.65, Hawthorn $2.25 (Sportsbet). Line is 5.5 points.
The time has arrived to beat this mob. It’s been 6 long years and 7 straight matches since we’ve claimed a victory against Hawthorn and there’s been a lot of heartache in three of those defeats. The 2012 Prelim was devastating for obvious reasons. The 2015 SF proved to be an almighty fall back to earth, which was compounded by the departures of Dangerfield and Worsfold the following week. Last year’s 3 point loss was a choke job which cost us a top 4 finish in the end.
Fast forward to today and there are no excuses now. The AFC can gain some legitimacy next week at the G against a declining but still respected football team. The round 1 win against GWS was one of the best performances the Crows have produced since 2006 IMO. 15.6 (96) in a half of football against the flag favourites cannot be dismissed. There were promising signs all over the park. Rory Laird is the best small defender/mid in the competition. Charlie Cameron and Rory Atkins have taken the next step, which is crucial to bridge the gap with the other contenders. We already knew about Milera’s skill but his ability to contribute in the game was a step forward on last year. McGovern is elite and could be the best forward in the comp in years to come, and the new faces all had decent contributions as well. Even Dmac and Douglas were great on Sunday, can they keep it up?! And all this without the captain. It was only Round 1 but Adelaide showed all the ingredients of a top 4 finish.
Unfortuantely for Curtly I think he had the least impact in the middle so I can see him making way for Tex. Otten/Kelly weren’t terrible but you’d expect at least one of them to make way for Lever, provided they were impressed with his SANFL output. Kelly at 189cm should retain his spot for team balance ahead of Andy who is more like for like with Lever.
Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell are handy replacement for their former stars but they also lost the speedy Brad Hill in the off season. Age is also catching up to Gibson, Burgoyne, Hodge and Birchall. It’s hard to make a definitive call on what’s going to happen with Hawthorn this season but Round 1 did nothing to quell the doubters. Despite a decent fightback in the 2nd quarter, they got jumped at the start by Essendon then were steamrolled in the 2nd half. They got smashed in uncontested marks by 52, an area they excelled at in their dominant era. An interesting comparison of our last two matches v Hawthorn show a turnaround in the way we performed in this area. In the 2015 final we lost the uncontested mark stat 120-61, but were in the positive 59-51 in Round 5 last year. Against the Giants we had great outside run finishing +58 for uncontested possessions. With the ball we have the edge so our pressure has to be immense to excel in the middle.
Last year we had this game for the taking, and it was our inexperience on the big stage that cost us. I’d like to think the group has matured and developed the 2nd tier to take the chocolates. Cameron, Atkins and Milera were so impressive last week and I think they’ll have a massive impact in the middle of the ground for us. It’s all about backing it up week after week, which won’t be easy against one of our boegy teams who command respect. But I think we’ve got way too much up forward, and they won’t be able to cope with our speed of ball movement. It’s a test of character but I’m confident.
Adelaide by 21
