Racing February Daily Punt - Still A 100% Danny Nikolic Free Zone

[iluvparis]

Kolding will be a sitting duck for MB or SS
To be fair when it comes to turn of foot SS has her covered, but..... class could get her home
She’s good enough, but Caulfield might not be in her favour either not the room of Flemington

I lol'd - she'd also look that dynamic racing 3yos.

 

[iluvparis]

Thought Kolding was good last time out. Exceeded expectation anyway, coming up well and probably the best older miler in Vic given the shark has gone north.

Couldn't even beat White Moss home at WFA is a big FAIL first up from me- question marks are out as to his ability to step up outside restricted grade/handicaps with featherweights.

 

[iluvparis]

Shadow Hero the forgotten horse here

Needs further plus reckon he looks the type to be flattered by his 3yo spring form - very happy to play around him until proven otherwise

 

[iluvparis]

Weirdly given its the same race 2 weeks later on but the group 1 1400m Orr Stakes has amazing 3yo winning record, the Futurity same distance, same class far less so

Perhaps they are all headed to the Guineas by then?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Perhaps they are all headed to the Guineas by then?

Yes

seths path is a little unusual

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I lol'd - she'd also look that dynamic racing 3yos.

What’s the age group got to do with his turn of foot?
Fact is SS can explode in a matter of strides

Castelvecchio as a 3yo showed a bloody good turn of foot against older horses in our WFA championship... only run down by an absolute champ
Don’t think age is a valid point

No doubt you’ll disagree though

 

[AvantGardener]

Shadow Hero the forgotten horse here

First up short of his distance. Next please

 

[FallingLiefs]

What’s the age group got to do with his turn of foot?
Fact is SS can explode in a matter of strides

Castelvecchio as a 3yo showed a bloody good turn of foot against older horses in our WFA championship... only run down by an absolute champ
Don’t think age is a valid point

No doubt you’ll disagree though

There's turn of foot and there's makes good ground late.

They're 2 seperate things. Nature Strip has a good turn of foot. Chautauqua does not. Weight heavily suits the latter when races run genuinely. Hence Castel suited at WFA of Cox Plate and why winners of Cox Plate at 3 generally lead.

 

[rideclutch]

Black Caviar had a rubbish turn of foot.

I'm gonna go to bed and hope someone takes the bait by my morning coffee break.

 

[eastaugh36]

Golden Insight at Morphettville Saturday in race 2. Just opened $34 on Sportsbet.

Cheers. Look there’s no denying the barrier is a problem but the odds are too good to let this go because if I did I know what will happen. Regardless of Saturday I think it’s one to follow as the jump outs and trials I’ve seen have been good. Usually you’ll see one or two in these city maidens from the big stables come in for betting support but doesn’t look to be the case here. I’ll be watching the market closely over the next 2 days. Sheza Little Posh is the big danger, it’s one I’ve tipped in here and has always run well or had excuses. Its around $5 so you could even get away with having a bit on it as I think it will only firm with the G.Richards factor.

Sorry the cheers was at Mattner!

 

[54Dogs]

Might be a good day to fire up the live chat on Sat, fields look solid

 

[mcnulty]

Shadow Hero the forgotten horse here

Not sure what to make of this fellow, interesting horse. Absolutely dynamic in the Gloaming over 1800 then ground home in the SC at 2000 (very confusing race form wise), failed at the Derby.

Wouldnt be surprised if a mile-2000 ends up being his best distance (his mum was an out and our sprinter). Other thing is he failed only go in the soft in the Derby, but he might have had enough by then/not enjoyed the trip.

I‘m going to see how the track is and if there’s any money for him on the day.

 

[iluvparis]

What’s the age group got to do with his turn of foot?
Fact is SS can explode in a matter of strides

Castelvecchio as a 3yo showed a bloody good turn of foot against older horses in our WFA championship... only run down by an absolute champ
Don’t think age is a valid point

No doubt you’ll disagree though

Turn of foot is relative - are you seriously suggesting Melody Belle doesn't have one after what she showed at Flemington during the spring?

 

[iluvparis]

Black Caviar had a rubbish turn of foot.

I'm gonna go to bed and hope someone takes the bait by my morning coffee break.

Also beat camels a lot of the time

 

[AvantGardener]

To round out the field should be Alizee, Fierce Impact and probably Alabama Express dependent on backing up this week + one other.

Top 2 seeds for mine are Avilius and Castelvecchio but they would probably be better off staying in Syd than accepting an invite.

 

[HeathySure]

To round out the field should be Alizee, Fierce Impact and probably Alabama Express dependent on backing up this week + one other.

Top 2 seeds for mine are Avilius and Castelvecchio but they would probably be better off staying in Syd than accepting an invite.

lol Avicat

 

[iluvparis]

SoJ has gone back sprinting and looks like Regal Power is going Oz Cup so those are two extra wildcards likely opened up. In terms of quality Alizee and Avilius would get wildcards if they want but not sure they will look to take it up which means it is actually much more open for wildcards than I expected. I think they will throw the Tasmanian's a bone with MANDELA EFFECT and then sees what happens in Futurity/Blamey/Oz Guineas

 

[54Dogs]

Alizee can't get a mile, should go elsewhere

 

[TBellicious]

SoJ has gone back sprinting and looks like Regal Power is going Oz Cup so those are two extra wildcards likely opened up. In terms of quality Alizee and Avilius would get wildcards if they want but not sure they will look to take it up which means it is actually much more open for wildcards than I expected. I think they will throw the Tasmanian's a bone with MANDELA EFFECT and then sees what happens in Futurity/Blamey/Oz Guineas

FI almost guaranteed a wildcard.

 

[iluvparis]

FI almost guaranteed a wildcard.

It would appear so - just like the Cox Plate last year when VE got a slot when a whole bunch of more deserving horses chose not to take one up

 

[AvantGardener]

SoJ has gone back sprinting and looks like Regal Power is going Oz Cup so those are two extra wildcards likely opened up. In terms of quality Alizee and Avilius would get wildcards if they want but not sure they will look to take it up which means it is actually much more open for wildcards than I expected. I think they will throw the Tasmanian's a bone with MANDELA EFFECT and then sees what happens in Futurity/Blamey/Oz Guineas

Mandela Effect LOL you really do have a set against Fierce Impact

 

[iluvparis]

Mandela Effect LOL you really do have a set against Fierce Impact

Of course I do - I think the horse adds zero to the story/fabric of the race and he can get in by winning the Futurity (too late) or Blamey if he wants.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Turn of foot is relative - are you seriously suggesting Melody Belle doesn't have one after what she showed at Flemington during the spring?

**** no
I’m her biggest fan
Just IMO SUPER SETH has a bigger turn of foot than her - explodes much quicker

 

[iluvparis]

fu** no
I’m her biggest fan
Just IMO SUPER SETH has a bigger turn of foot than her - explodes much quicker

You are making him sound like Lonhro - she has the far superior turn of foot as we will see on Saturday.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

You are making him sound like Lonhro - she has the far superior turn of foot as we will see on Saturday.

And I hope you’re right