Analysis Finals opponent - Best to worst outcomes

[seysearles]

Given the current logjam in the 8 it would seem that, as it stands, almost any permutation is possible at the completion of the final round. There will definitely be some luck involved in which opponent we draw to face first week of finals. That luck could determine the fate of our season and quest for a four-peat.

As it stands I would rank the order of preferability as follows...

Home final (Finish 1st/2nd/5th/6th)

1. West Coast (Seem to be our bitches on the MCG)
2. GWS (Beat us at Spotless but I would back us in on the MCG)
3. North Melbourne (Came very close to beating us at Etihad earlier in the season)
4. Bulldogs (Came very close to beating us at Etihad. Would back us in in a final at the MCG)
5. Adelaide (Came very close to beating us at the MCG earlier in the season)
   
6. Sydney (Already beat us at the MCG this season)
7. Geelong (Already beat us at the MCG this season)

Away final (Finish 3rd/4th/7th/8th)

1. North Melbourne (Unlikely it would pan out like this but I would back us in v NM even if they are at home)
   
2. Bulldogs (Came very close to beating us at Etihad. Would back us in in a final at the MCG)
   
3. Geelong (Geelong at the MCG should at worst be a 50-50)
   
4. West Coast (I think we just match up well against West Coast even if we have to go to Perth)
5. GWS (Hopefully lack of finals experience would effect them in their first final)
6. Sydney (Would be a very tough ask)
   
7. Adelaide (I really don't fancy playing Adelaide in a final at Adelaide Oval).

 

[robs_drunk]

Finish top two have them come to us at the MCG

 

[Gralin]

Given the current logjam in the 8 it would seem that, as it stands, almost any permutation is possible at the completion of the final round. There will definitely be some luck involved in which opponent we draw to face first week of finals. That luck could determine the fate of our season and quest for a four-peat.

As it stands I would rank the order of preferability as follows...

Home final (Finish 1st/2nd/5th/6th)

1. West Coast (Seem to be our bitches on the MCG)
2. GWS (Beat us at Spotless but I would back us in on the MCG)
3. North Melbourne (Came very close to beating us at the MCG earlier in the season)
4. Bulldogs (Came very close to beating us at Etihad. Would back us in in a final at the MCG)
5. Adelaide (Came very close to beating us at the MCG earlier in the season)
   
6. Sydney (Already beat us at the MCG this season)
7. Geelong (Already beat us at the MCG this season)

Away final (Finish 3rd/4th/7th/8th)

1. North Melbourne (Unlikely it would pan out like this but I would back us in v NM even if they are at home)
   
2. Bulldogs (Came very close to beating us at Etihad. Would back us in in a final at the MCG)
   
3. Geelong (Geelong at the MCG should at worst be a 50-50)
   
4. West Coast (I think we just match up well against West Coast even if we have to go to Perth)
5. GWS (Hopefully lack of finals experience would effect them in their first final)
6. Sydney (Would be a very tough ask)
   
7. Adelaide (I really don't fancy playing Adelaide in a final at Adelaide Oval).

I'd rate some of those away options in 3rd of 4th above a home option in 5th or 6th though because you win you get the home prelim

 

[Hawker55]

I said in another thread, any finals route this year is going to be easier than the way we took last year - and that includes if we finish in the bottom half of the 8.

I want to avoid GWS at Spotless if at all possible though.

 

[seysearles]

Finish top two have them come to us at the MCG

In which case we would obviously prefer an interstate team. Finish top with Geelong in 4th and all the wins you fought for in the season mean nothing and your home ground advantage is almost non-existent. As I say, lots of luck involved in how the cards fall.

I'd rate some of those away options in 3rd of 4th above a home option in 5th or 6th though because you win you get the home prelim

History would say that you're better off finishing 3rd or 4th but you could score EF West Coast (MCG) SF Bulldogs (MCG) PF Geelong (MCG) GF Sydney (MCG) if you got lucky.

I said in another thread, any finals route this year is going to be easier than the way we took last year - and that includes if we finish in the bottom half of the 8.

I want to avoid GWS at Spotless if at all possible though.

You would prefer Adelaide at AO or Sydney at SCG to GWS at Spotless? I know that they beat us there comprehensively earlier in the year but I am not so sure about that. I would like to think that our experience would help us in a big way. Given that its their first finals campaign, the Giants will be feeling the nerves a lot more than us.

 

[Teamwork Talks]

I think the bye before the finals will make the mantra "must finish top four" obsolete.
So I agree that home finals vs away finals will have greater influence than final ladder position.

 

[Stranglers]

Looking at that, it's going to be a super-difficult finals campaign whichever way you cut it. If we manage to win this year it will be the best of all of them IMO.

 

[Long Live HFC]

we played the roos at etihad.

 

[Taskmaster]

Finish top two have them come to us at the MCG

Absolutely correct!!!!!!

 

[A Cut Above]

At least we'll avoid the most dangerous September opponent - Hawthorn.

 

[madhawksfan]

Home:
Eagles- own them at the G
Adelaide- good finals record against them
GWS- inexperienced and not good at the G
Dogs- young side who aren't as good away from Etihad
North- they have a good record against us in finals and we always get dragged down to their level
Shitney- have beaten us at the G twice in the past two years
Geelong- they have the weapons to worry us

Away:
Dogs- this would probably be at the G so it negates their advantage
North- would be at the G which is better than playing interstate
Geelong- see North
Eagles- we have beaten them in a GF and at Subi
Adelaide- good record against them but they are a different side at home
GWS- we shit the bed at Spotless
Shitney- the SCG is the worst ground in the AFL and the Swans would be playing with 25 (or 26 if there are 4 umpires) players

 

[Hawker55]

You would prefer Adelaide at AO or Sydney at SCG to GWS at Spotless? I know that they beat us there comprehensively earlier in the year but I am not so sure about that. I would like to think that our experience would help us in a big way. Given that its their first finals campaign, the Giants will be feeling the nerves a lot more than us.

I would yes. GWS travel appallingly but they are very hard to beat at home. Going to Adelaide and ANZ/SCG isn't too big a deal for us as we've done it and won numerous times. We've only been to Blacktown twice so it's more of a step into the unknown in terms of what preparation works etc. Plus GWS match up very well on us, while I think we have Adelaide/Sydney's number

 

[GOHORCS]

The way I see it our percentage will mean we finish 3rd with either GWS or Geelong our opponent. I also think if we win we will probably see the other of the two in the preliminary. The first final will be the key to the fourpeat. We win it, job done.

 

[Thaihawk]

I think the bye before the finals will make the mantra "must finish top four" obsolete.
So I agree that home finals vs away finals will have greater influence than final ladder position.

I consider this week's game to be a good indication of how we are going to approach the weeks rest at the end of the H&A season. The Port game is getting a finals like build up, so we should get a good indication of how well we are prepared tonight. I'm hoping for a 3 - 5 goal win.

 

[Briar Gold]

Spotless is as at Homebush (Olympic Park, adjacent to ANZ) not Blacktown.

Either way, I was at both recent losses and they were not pretty. Flat from the start.

I would yes. GWS travel appallingly but they are very hard to beat at home. Going to Adelaide and ANZ/SCG isn't too big a deal for us as we've done it and won numerous times. We've only been to Blacktown twice so it's more of a step into the unknown in terms of what preparation works etc. Plus GWS match up very well on us, while I think we have Adelaide/Sydney's number

 

[Randy Campbell]

Two options, the details don't matter.

Top four and win our last three games.
5th to 8th and win our last four games.

 

[Brishawk]

At least we'll avoid the most dangerous September opponent - Hawthorn.

we would have won no flags had we had to play Hawthorn in the grand final. We had the easiest finals campaign each time because we dodged Hawthorn. #HawthornFreeFinals

 

[Randy Campbell]

You obviously missed last year's final series....

3rd option - Finish top 4 lose win win win.

That comes under option 1
Top four and win our last three games.

 

[seysearles]

I tell you, I wouldn't mind scoring NM sometime in finals. They look shot. Were on top of the table after 12 rds are 8th after 16rds. Last 6 games L W L L L L.

 

[Pessimistic]

Just spent some time on squiggle and the ladder predictor and a final at SCG or Adeleide oval is very likely - the latter even more so

It now becomes clear why Clarko rattled ports cage. Its to give the guys a good look at Adelaide oval in full rabid mode. People try to work him out but hes probably thinking two months ahead

edit: keep winning and its all a footnote

just eight (minimum) wins to a grand final now

Round 12 2015 v Adelaide ----------------------Round 16 2016 v Port Adelaide

 

[filly]

Of the sides in the 8 the following clubs IMO we SHOULD beat Norf,Bulldogs West Coast Crows GWS(MCG) and Shitney(MCG). Got to say Geelong IMO is a worry as is playing away to GWS and Shitney.I feel we have edge in most matchups but would definitely fear Geelong in Grand Final!!!

 

[Pessimistic]

The only problem with hawks v cats in the granny is its supreme glory or absolute despair. its living to the max, so not a problem

 

[filly]

The only problem with hawks v cats in the granny is its supreme glory or absolute despair. its living to the max, so not a problem

Yep,perhaps I know too many Cats supporters...

 

[Bedi]

the ideal scenario for mine would be whatever outcome that led us to play a grand final against GWS at the MCG.

 

[seysearles]

The OCD in me wants to play Adelaide or GWS in the grand final so we can cross another team off our list of conquests. We have beaten all the other contenders in the big dance. Yawn.