Analysis Finals opponent - Best to worst outcomes

[MadDawg]

Anyone, anywhere, anytime
Bring it on

 

[Gralin]

I disagree. Have you looked carefully at the ladder? We just need 4 of the 5 teams below us to drop a single game out of their remaining 5 games. Some of them play each other also like GWS and West Coast which guarantees a loss to one of them. The odds of 2 of them going through the season undefeated is very slim. I'm very confident that we could lose 2 games and still finish top 2.

I have, I went through the rest of the season for all clubs. FWIW I don't think we will lose 2 more games, I can see us dropping one between now and finals which would give us 18-4, 19-3 is possible but it means we have to not make any mistakes and win on the road in Perth.

GWS have tigers, Suns, Freo, WC and North could easily win all 5
Cats have Essedon, Tigers, Lions, Dogs and Melbourne could easily win all 5
Swans and Crows might have slightly harder runs but it could happen

18 wins guarantees us top spot, nobody below us can get higher than 17 but it is possible for us to drop to 5th. Lose two and 3rd of 4th is more likely and that could still end up being Geelong at the G but the only way to guarantee we finish top 2 is to win 4/5

 

[bumsonseats]

I disagree. Have you looked carefully at the ladder? We just need 4 of the 5 teams below us to drop a single game out of their remaining 5 games. Some of them play each other also like GWS and West Coast which guarantees a loss to one of them. The odds of 2 of them going through the season undefeated is very slim. I'm very confident that we could lose 2 games and still finish top 2.

Geelong and Adelaide have pretty easy draws and don't play each other. They will start as strong favorites in all of their remaining games. Good chance they won't drop a game between now and finals.
I am not worried about WC - won't win in Adelaide, or the Bulldogs - to many injuries to key players.

It is probable that GWS and Syd will drop a game, but not a given either. Pretty sure Geel, ADL, Syd or GWS are not playing each other in the run home.

We should not drop below 3rd if we drop a couple of games, but def possible we can drop to 4th or 5th.

 

[bumsonseats]

I have, I went through the rest of the season for all clubs. FWIW I don't think we will lose 2 more games, I can see us dropping one between now and finals which would give us 18-4, 19-3 is possible but it means we have to not make any mistakes and win on the road in Perth.

GWS have tigers, Suns, Freo, WC and North could easily win all 5
Cats have Essedon, Tigers, Lions, Dogs and Melbourne could easily win all 5
Swans and Crows might have slightly harder runs but it could happen

18 wins guarantees us top spot, nobody below us can get higher than 17 but it is possible for us to drop to 5th. Lose two and 3rd of 4th is more likely and that could still end up being Geelong at the G but the only way to guarantee we finish top 2 is to win 4/5

Couldn't have said it better myself

 

[seysearles]

1. HAWTHORN 15-3 123.9%

Rd 19: Carlton (Aurora Stadium)
Rd 20: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 21: North Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: West Coast (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)

2. GWS 13-5 136.3%

Rd 19: Richmond (Manuka Oval)
Rd 20: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 21: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

3. SYDNEY 13-5 134%

Rd 19: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 20: Port Adelaide (SCG)
Rd 21: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)

4. GEELONG 13-5 133.2%

Rd 19: Western Bulldogs (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 20: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Richmond (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)

5. WEST COAST 13-5 132.7%

Rd 19: Collingwood (MCG)
Rd 20: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 21: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 22: Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

6. ADLEAIDE 13-5 128.7%

Rd 19: Essendon (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 21: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

7. BULLDOGS 13-7 119%

Rd 19: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 20: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium

 

[Gralin]

Everyone has too many wins bulldogs too many losses

 

[seysearles]

Everyone has too many wins bulldogs too many losses

The form of West Coast and North Melbourne is a major variable. If they can win their 50-50's then the order of the 8 could change considerably. Ironically I think we want West Coast to keep winning so that they land in 4th but that involves playing us in rd.22 which, it goes without saying, we want them to lose.

 

[Gralin]

The form of West Coast and North Melbourne is a major variable. If they can win their 50-50's then the order of the 8 could change considerably. Ironically I think we want West Coast to keep winning so that they land in 4th but that involves playing us in rd.22 which, it goes without saying, we want them to lose.

We get to round 22 without a loss and it won't really matter if west coast get the win. We will either have sown up top two or will just need to get the job done the following week against the Pies

 

[Mississippi]

Hi all

Read my lips

We have all sides covered except for 1

Our biggest problem is GWS - repeat GWS
Everyone's assuming they may cause us trouble in Sydney but not in Melbourne
IMO that is simply wrong - they've thrashed us twice in Sydney and can beat us in Melbourne also because they have the best and deepest midfield in the business
What makes it worse is that they simply cut us up for pace on the last 2 occasions we played them
I've seen our mob badly cut up in Sydney twice - I was at both games. They made Sammy Hodgey Lewis Burgoyne and others look very very very slow
Those GWS midfielders won't be any slower on the MCG

Everyone's also assuming that they'll fall away in the finals because it's there first appearance and because they're only kids. I hope that's right but strongly doubt that will be the case.
First, they're not kids - they've now played 60 / 70 games
Secondly, they're supported by experience like Mumford / Ward / Davis / Shaw / Griffen / Johnson

They're the only side we should fear the most.

 

[Gralin]

Hi all

Read my lips

We have all sides covered except for 1

Our biggest problem is GWS - repeat GWS
Everyone's assuming they may cause us trouble in Sydney but not in Melbourne
IMO that is simply wrong - they've thrashed us twice in Sydney and can beat us in Melbourne also because they have the best and deepest midfield in the business
What makes it worse is that they simply cut us up for pace on the last 2 occasions we played them
I've seen our mob badly cut up in Sydney twice - I was at both games. They made Sammy Hodgey Lewis Burgoyne and others look very very very slow
Those GWS midfielders won't be any slower on the MCG

Everyone's also assuming that they'll fall away in the finals because it's there first appearance and because they're only kids. I hope that's right but strongly doubt that will be the case.
First, they're not kids - they've now played 60 / 70 games
Secondly, they're supported by experience like Mumford / Ward / Davis / Shaw / Griffen / Johnson

They're the only side we should fear the most.

We shouldn't fear anyone, respect sure but the minute you fear a side your halfway to losing if not three quarters done.

 

[Pessimistic]

Other teams might knock themselves out not only trying to win, but to maintain or boost percentage

 

[Angus Young]

Hi all

Read my lips

We have all sides covered except for 1

Our biggest problem is GWS - repeat GWS
Everyone's assuming they may cause us trouble in Sydney but not in Melbourne
IMO that is simply wrong - they've thrashed us twice in Sydney and can beat us in Melbourne also because they have the best and deepest midfield in the business
What makes it worse is that they simply cut us up for pace on the last 2 occasions we played them
I've seen our mob badly cut up in Sydney twice - I was at both games. They made Sammy Hodgey Lewis Burgoyne and others look very very very slow
Those GWS midfielders won't be any slower on the MCG

Everyone's also assuming that they'll fall away in the finals because it's there first appearance and because they're only kids. I hope that's right but strongly doubt that will be the case.
First, they're not kids - they've now played 60 / 70 games
Secondly, they're supported by experience like Mumford / Ward / Davis / Shaw / Griffen / Johnson

They're the only side we should fear the most.

agreed, GWS are tough and don't run out of legs.

For some reason don't really want to meet the Cats too much.

Anyone else not worried.

 

[Brant]

Hi all

Read my lips

We have all sides covered except for 1

Our biggest problem is GWS - repeat GWS
Everyone's assuming they may cause us trouble in Sydney but not in Melbourne
IMO that is simply wrong - they've thrashed us twice in Sydney and can beat us in Melbourne also because they have the best and deepest midfield in the business

They're the only side we should fear the most.

By 'thrashed us twice', do you mean once; plus a 10-pt win where we'd wrested back the lead & if not for Hodge/Lewis being suspended the previous week & Schoey playing FB, would've been a tough but reasonable win?

They killed us this year, but a lot of that had to do with us. Not all 80 points of it, but a lot of that was the result of our playing 1x KPD on their 3x KPF & our letting youngsters develop in KPF roles where we could've thrown Ruckmen forward as targets.

Don't get me wrong, those games are terrible to watch; but I doubt Clarko would do the same dumb sh*t in a final.

 

[MightyHawks]

Given that we look like finishing top of the table and we face a chicken raffle deciding who we get in 4th spot you come to realise the extent to which how random it is what sort of advantage top spot will give you. If for example West Coast sneak into 4th spot it represents a huge advantage for us whereas if Geelong land there then suddenly the 22 rouds of blood sweat and tears grinding out wins during the home and away season almost disappears in the blink of an eye. In short it can be a bigger advantage finishing 2nd that 1st. To me intuitively it feels that there is something wrong with that.

Thinking out of the box here, but what would happen if the finals system was that the team that finished first could nominate their opponent from the teams in 3rd and 4th spots? It would add an additional dimension to the game also as it would be declaring that you believe you can beat the team you've nominated which may motivate them to perform also. A loss to a team that you had nominated would be a slap in the face. Not likely to happen but interested to know if anyone else thinks it has some merit.

Richmond will be the first team who gets to nominate their opponent...

Seriously scared about playing GWS in a GF. These kids have so much talent and getting a bit of swagger about them. They have the run and marking power all over the ground to really worry us. If we were efficient with our forward entries and scoring we could still prevail.

Not so worried about the Cats. I thought we played a tall short in round one and also had Pittonet in the ruck. Cegs offers a genuine contest to Smith and Stanley and has been doing good things around the ground. Shiels absence has allowed JOR and WX to step up to the plate and both have added more grunt to our mids and more tackling pressure. Healthy competition between them for one spot. They have also scored somr goals; midfield goals have been in short supply this year. I think in spring conditions we would finish all over the top of them.

With no major injuries expect to have the Swans and Crows covered at the G.

Don't rate North or Eagles and injuries seem to have crueled Doggies chances. Besides they don't do Prelims!

If we have a healthy list wouldn't even mind dropping the first final if we finish first or second. There are advantages in playing 4 finals type matches in a row. It provides the tackling intensity that is the hallmark of GF's. If a team with an easy last few rounds then has a comfortable qualifying win they may go in to a Prelim or GF seriously short of hard football. Like Swans in 2014, who coasted through to the GF but hadn't played enough contested ball football to prepare them for a physical start.

No need to be scared about GWS, but yes they are a concern - probably my least favourite choice of opponent in a Qualifying Final

Agree completely with the Cats: Brand & Ceglar are huge Ins compared to our Round 1 side

The Giants havent played a final yet. Getting Hawthorn in a QF at the MCG in front of 55k / 60k is very different from a Sunday Night at Spotless in front of 8k.

I disagree on the 4 week finals series. It takes a very special team (ie. Lions 03 and Hawks 15) to win it going the long way but the numbers speak for themselves. Since the introduction of the current finals system, 13 of the 16 premiers have won the premiership using the short hand route

If we do face GWS in a final then its crucial we get as many Hawks as possible to the game

Whoever GWS play in Melbourne would be the series ticket game so we could potentially get 70,000 to the game

 

[Mississippi]

By 'thrashed us twice', do you mean once; plus a 10-pt win where we'd wrested back the lead & if not for Hodge/Lewis being suspended the previous week & Schoey playing FB, would've been a tough but reasonable win?

They killed us this year, but a lot of that had to do with us. Not all 80 points of it, but a lot of that was the result of our playing 1x KPD on their 3x KPF & our letting youngsters develop in KPF roles where we could've thrown Ruckmen forward as targets.

Don't get me wrong, those games are terrible to watch; but I doubt Clarko would do the same dumb sh*t in a final.

Yes I do mean the thrashing by 10 points in 2015
In the last quarter we were 20 points up and cruising. Then GWS reeled off 5 goals in a row (plus 7 behinds - we were lucky they didn't kick 10 goals in half a quarter).
Made us look like the rabbit in the spotlights.
We returned this year well and truly on notice - and were annihilated

They're by far the fastest side going around and we're susceptible to pace.
Not a good mix.

 

[The BIG X]

The only saviour I see for this year v GWS is they (GWS) will have had a long year and very little finals experience (player wise) and this could be their downfall.

Come 2017 - different ball game

After our thrashing this year - I said I just saw the 2017 Premiers (GWS).

 

[TAITA]

The only saviour I see for this year v GWS is they (GWS) will have had a long year and very little finals experience (player wise) and this could be their downfall.

Come 2017 - different ball game

After our thrashing this year - I said I just saw the 2017 Premiers (GWS).

They are still a fair way away from it right now imo - when they are on they are world beaters but the difference between their best and worst is still too much, and the intensity of a first finals campaign amongst some really battle hardened teams will take a toll.

But yeah, 2017......keep most of them on the park, particularly the sausage eater and eke another season out of SJ.....they will be pretty good.

 

[Brishawk]

We have won 14 games, not 15. On track for 18-19 win season. Amazing effort!

 

[Jack Gun Cyril Stun]

Hi all

Read my lips

We have all sides covered except for 1

Our biggest problem is GWS - repeat GWS
Everyone's assuming they may cause us trouble in Sydney but not in Melbourne
IMO that is simply wrong - they've thrashed us twice in Sydney and can beat us in Melbourne also because they have the best and deepest midfield in the business
What makes it worse is that they simply cut us up for pace on the last 2 occasions we played them
I've seen our mob badly cut up in Sydney twice - I was at both games. They made Sammy Hodgey Lewis Burgoyne and others look very very very slow
Those GWS midfielders won't be any slower on the MCG

Everyone's also assuming that they'll fall away in the finals because it's there first appearance and because they're only kids. I hope that's right but strongly doubt that will be the case.
First, they're not kids - they've now played 60 / 70 games
Secondly, they're supported by experience like Mumford / Ward / Davis / Shaw / Griffen / Johnson

They're the only side we should fear the most.

Agree, i reckon they are the most dangerous. That midfield is quick and tough, and run fast and hard, its hard to negate tactically. Theyre still on the up. Have tall fwds to kick to under pressure as well which is often required in Sept. Young teams with good leadership can thrive in september as no baggage.

 

[Gralin]

Agree, i reckon they are the most dangerous. That midfield is quick and tough, and run fast and hard, its hard to negate tactically. Theyre still on the up. Have tall fwds to kick to under pressure as well which is often required in Sept. Young teams with good leadership can thrive in september as no baggage.

If Collingwood can beat them so can we. They are young which means they are inexperienced in their own way. They also still need Mummy fit or they are cactus

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

Best: AFL feels sorry for Lions and Bombers, puts them in the finals.

Worst: GWS because they are bloody good. Geelong, because I never want to give them the chance to get even for 08.

 

[Overriolied]

At least we'll avoid the most dangerous September opponent - Hawthorn.

We might be our own worst enemy...

 

[Overriolied]

Best: AFL feels sorry for Lions and Bombers, puts them in the finals.

Worst: GWS because they are bloody good. Geelong, because I never want to give them the chance to get even for 08.

What if we beat Geelong? Imagine how delightful it would be! Imagine the bitter tears that would fill Bigfooty from the regular douche Cats fans!

 

[Overriolied]

Best outcomes: Fourpeat one point victory over Cats or Swans.
Worst outcomes: GF defeat at the hands of either of the above by one point.

 

[Clarkos_Soldier]

I understand the bye before the finals is a bit of an unknown, but you can't compare it to in-season bye. This year more often than not, the team coming of the bye played a team who wasn't, and mostly lost (but we didn't).

After the finals bye, each team's opponents will also be coming off the bye, so that kinda negates that.

And I put complete faith in Russell and our crew to prepare our team better than anyone else. If anyone can come up with a winning preparation plan, it's us.

Every year after the midyear bye we come out and give a team a football lesson. I have no doubt with our experienced aging list it will favour us more than any other team.