AFLW Finals, Week 2 - 2024 AFLW season

[Teen Wolf]

Saturday, 16 November

1st Semi Final
Adelaide (WWLWL) v Fremantle (LWWWW)
3.35pm AEDT, Norwood Oval
Seven - SA, WA, VIC; 7two - NSW, QLD

2nd Semi Final
Hawthorn (WWWWL) v Port Adelaide (WWWWW)
7.30pm AEDT, Ikon Park
Seven - VIC, SA; 7mate - WA, NSW, QLD


After a highly competitive first week of finals, things are going to heat up even more for the semis. Lit-a-really. Weather forecast currently says the arvo game will be played in 32 degrees, while the night semi will still take place in high-20s.

First up, Adelaide will play their 3rd home semi final in 3 seasons, having beaten Sydney by 67 points last year and Collingwood by 12 the year before that. They are odds-on favourites to extend a throbbing 7-1 head-to-head record over Fremantle (which includes the R2 match earlier this season in WA when the hosts were kept goalless).

The nugget of optimism for Dockers fans is they are 1-0 at Norwood Oval, and in fact Freo didn't just win that 2021 game against the Crows, they smashed 'em. Or, more accurately, Kiara Bowers and Gemma Houghton smashed 'em... which is probably less comforting, given neither player will feature on Saturday.

Then it's over to the Hawks and Power, whose extraordinary history of 3-point margins in men's finals could very plausibly transcend gender lines. These teams have had two prior AFLW meetings, both at the long-and-skinny Kinetic Stadium, both won by Hawthorn to the tune of 1 or 2 goals.

Perhaps surprisingly, the bookies atm have Port Adelaide as bigger outsiders than Fremantle. Both teams have played Richmond in the past fortnight, and you couldn't seriously say PAFC's 24-point win over the Tigers was significantly less impressive than the Hawks' 23-point win, even while factoring in where each match was played.

With both of the state's AFLW teams playing off for a prelim berth, amidst other news and events, it seems SA is taking centre stage this week. And come to think of it, if for some reason my own club doesn't make it past the PF, I'd like to see a Showdown GF because hoooweeee would that create an almighty SACA shitfight or what. AFL executives will be crucified in the media if such a game is played at a 10k venue, which I guarantee would prompt a letter to Premier Malinauskas as follows: "get us on Adelaide Oval for 3 hours, and we'll extend that precious Gather Round contract!"

AFLW Finals Week Two Milestones

Potential milestones
75 games

• Gabby O'Sullivan (Fremantle)

50 games

• Louise Stephenson (Hawthorn)

75 goals

• Gemma Houghton (Port Adelaide) – currently on 74 goals

15 finals (the first players to reach this milestone)

• Sarah Allan (Adelaide Crows)
• Anne Hatchard (Adelaide Crows)
• Stevie-Lee Thompson (Adelaide Crows)
• Ebony Marinoff (Adelaide Crows)

 

[Teen Wolf]

"indisputably"

I mean... ok. She was the best ruck on the ground in last week's final between Fremantle and Essendon. She was also the ONLY ruck on the ground.

It is a bit tougher to rack up 50+ hitouts against somebody of similar size and skill. Like, say, Jess Allan. Last time they met:

 

[X_box_X]

It's hard to disagree with Strom not being the clear standout. She is literally miles ahead of every ruck in several categories.

Despite her lean frame, she doesn't get pushed off the ball either. She has been well coached knowing when and how to apply a bump to out position her direct opponent at stoppages.

The fact she does so much around the ground as well makes her super valuable.

 

[X_box_X]

Predictions:

Adelaide by 19
Hawthorn by 14

 

[Teen Wolf]

Despite her lean frame, she doesn't get pushed off the ball either. She has been well coached knowing when and how to apply a bump to out position her direct opponent at stoppages.

The fact she does so much around the ground as well makes her super valuable.

Been clearly beaten in the ruck 4 or 5 games this year. Her hitout stats are inflated by towelling up Kate Darby etc.

Has to be much better against Adelaide than last time. 2 metres gained doesn't scream "does so much around the ground".

 

[mookieb]

Been clearly beaten in the ruck 4 or 5 games this year. Her hitout stats are inflated by towelling up Kate Darby etc.

Has to be much better against Adelaide than last time. 2 metres gained doesn't scream "does so much around the ground".

Exactly which games were the ones where she was "clearly beaten"?

 

[Teen Wolf]

Exactly which games were the ones where she was "clearly beaten"?

Adelaide, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and also Carlton whenever she had the misfortune of rucking against Brea Moody (who, despite going half ratpower this year, was still far too strong for her).

 

[mookieb]

Adelaide, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and also Carlton whenever she had the misfortune of rucking against Brea Moody (who, despite going half ratpower this year, was still far too strong for her).

Freo vs Ade - Strom 0 Allan 0
Freo vs StK - Strom 3 coaches votes
Freo vs Hawks - Strom 4 coaches votes
Freo vs WB - Strom 10 coaches votes
Freo vs Carl - Strom 4 coaches votes

These games?

 

[Teen Wolf]

Freo vs Ade - Strom 0 Allan 0
Freo vs StK - Strom 3 coaches votes
Freo vs Hawks - Strom 4 coaches votes
Freo vs WB - Strom 10 coaches votes
Freo vs Carl - Strom 4 coaches votes

These games?

Yes, clearly beaten in the ruck in 4 or 5 of those games.

Or do you really think I was suggesting Alice Edmonds (6 disposals) beat Mim Strom (30 disposals) in general play?

 

[mookieb]

Yes, clearly beaten in the ruck in 4 or 5 of those games.

Or do you really think I was suggesting Alice Edmonds (6 disposals) beat Mim Strom (30 disposals) in general play?

Freo vs Ade - Strom 0 Allan 0 - Allan 27 hitouts Strom 20
Freo vs StK - Strom 3 coaches votes - Strom 25 hitouts Fielder 14
Freo vs Hawks - Strom 4 coaches votes -Wales 43 hitouts Strom 38
Freo vs WB - Strom 10 coaches votes - Edmonds 34 hitouts Strom 29
Freo vs Carl - Strom 4 coaches votes - Strom 47 hitouts vs Good 34

Strom hasn't been clearly beaten in any game bar perhaps Ade. Virtually anytime she loses the hitout count she dominates the other ruck around the ground. Won the hitouts by 26 to Allan and the 3rd place was over 100 behind. Best ruck in the competition and not even close.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Freo vs Ade - Strom 0 Allan 0 - Allan 27 hitouts Strom 20
Freo vs StK - Strom 3 coaches votes - Strom 25 hitouts Fielder 14
Freo vs Hawks - Strom 4 coaches votes -Wales 43 hitouts Strom 38
Freo vs WB - Strom 10 coaches votes - Edmonds 34 hitouts Strom 29
Freo vs Carl - Strom 4 coaches votes - Strom 47 hitouts vs Good 34

Strom hasn't been clearly beaten in any game bar perhaps Ade. Virtually anytime she loses the hitout count she dominates the other ruck around the ground. Won the hitouts by 26 to Allan and the 3rd place was over 100 behind. Best ruck in the competition and not even close.

Wow she had more hitouts than somebody who played half a game. What an achievement.



Pssst, being involved in the most ruck contests doesn't actually equate to being the best.

Allan, Edmonds and Bella have averaged more hitouts to advantage this year. Pearce is equal with Strom, who has averaged 15 more ruck contests per game than the next highest.

Of all the players averaging 20+ hitouts this season, 9 have a better Hitout Win %. And 10 have a better Hitout to Advantage %.

 

[CURVE]

WOW! St. Kilda needed to use 3 players to beat one "overrated" Ruck, including using their superstar forward to curtail her influence. Strom must be a really sh!t player.

 

[mookieb]

WOW! St. Kilda needed to use 3 players to beat one "overrated" Ruck, including using their superstar forward to curtail her influence. Strom must be a really sh!t player.

Even better. They clearly beat her. Apparently.

Fielder AA?

 

[Teen Wolf]

WOW! St. Kilda needed to use 3 players to beat one "overrated" Ruck, including using their superstar forward to curtail her influence.

No they didn't.

Strom must be a really sh!t player.

Very harsh. She is a below-average performer in ruck contests among recognised rucks, atm. Doesn't make her a shit player imo.

 

[CURVE]

No they didn't.

Strom played 90% of the game time, so there is a very good chance she would have come up against all three players at some stage.

Very harsh. She is a below-average performer in ruck contests among recognised rucks, atm. Doesn't make her a shit player imo.

The way you have been carrying on, you come across as someone who doesn't rate her.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Strom played 90% of the game time, so there is a very good chance she would have come up against all three players at some stage.

...congrats for figuring that out. Yes, she did come up against all three, and they all performed better in the ruck contests.

St Kilda didn't need to rotate the rucks to win the hitout count though.

she is a sh!t player.

I disagree. She has shown a lot of promise, but still has a lot to prove against high-quality opposition.

 

[mookieb]

Strom played 90% of the game time, so there is a very good chance she would have come up against all three players at some stage.


The way you have been carrying on, you come across as someone who doesn't rate her.

He just likes to say something clearly wrong and then argue incessantly that he's right, with nothing to back him up.

I mean would anyone else following AFLW think Strom was "clearly beaten" by the St Kilda rucks?

 

[Teen Wolf]

I mean would anyone else following AFLW think Strom was "clearly beaten" by the St Kilda rucks?

Yeah, the Champion Data statisticians recording Hitout Win % and Hitout to Advantage %.

I'm not arguing with them. You are.

 

[CURVE]

Yeah, the Champion Data statisticians recording Hitout Win % and Hitout to Advantage %.

I'm not arguing with them. You are.

You're picking out one or two stat and ignoring the rest. She may have lost the hitout count, but she wasn't clearly beaten by any of the rucks you mentioned.

 

[Teen Wolf]

You're picking out one or two stat and ignoring the rest.

Yeah I'm picking out the relevant stats. Pretty sensible thing to do. There's no point comparing ground ball gets to evaluate a ruck contest.

She may have lost the hitout count, but she wasn't clearly beaten by any of the rucks you mentioned.

She did lose the hitout count, at a ratio of 45% vs 55%. That is clear. And it means she was clearly beaten in the ruck.

45% is also the rate Strom went at throughout the H&A season. Whereas the league leaders go at around 55%.

 

[mookieb]

You're picking out one or two stat and ignoring the rest. She may have lost the hitout count, but she wasn't clearly beaten by any of the rucks you mentioned.

Imagine Strom reading this and finding out she's not even in the top 3 rucks at St Kilda...

 

[Teen Wolf]

Imagine Strom reading this and finding out she's not even in the top 3 rucks at St Kilda...

She's not in the top 3 rucks at St Kilda. She plays for Fremantle, mate.

 

[CURVE]

Yeah I'm picking out the relevant stats. Pretty sensible thing to do. There's no point comparing ground ball gets to evaluate a ruck contest.

No, you are nitpicking a particular set of stats and not looking at the players overall contribution. Mim Strom's the AFLW best ruck because she is not only a very good tap ruck but because she plays like an extra midfielder and leads all rucks for disposals, clearances and tackles, no one can match her across the ground.

 

[Teen Wolf]

very good tap ruck

Her hitout win % and hitout to advantage % stats are below average among recognised rucks.

she plays like an extra midfielder and leads all rucks for disposals, clearances and tackles, no one can match her across the ground.

She's had a busy fortnight against weak/injury-hampered opposition. For the ten games prior, she wasn't even ahead of first-year ruck Eilish O'Dowd for disposals.

Strom would have to carry her very recent form into this week before any "indisputably" talk is warranted, rather than having another 2-kick game with 2 metres gained while getting clearly beaten in the ruck contests.

 

[CURVE]

Her hitout win % and hitout to advantage % stats are below average among recognised rucks.


She's had a busy fortnight against weak/injury-hampered opposition. For the ten games prior, she wasn't even ahead of first-year ruck Eilish O'Dowd for disposals.

Strom would have to carry her very recent form into this week before any "indisputably" talk is warranted, rather than having another 2-kick game with 2 metres gained while getting clearly beaten in the ruck contests.

Nitpicking again. You are basing your opinion on 1 poor game. Pathetic. At least her 2-kick game was against a top 4 team (Adelaide) as opposed to O'Dowd's who had 2 against the Dogs in Round 1 and St. Kilda in the second half of the season when they were poor.