Football Related Random Thread - PART 2

[briztoon]

Had a friend whose job for a while (while finishing his phd) was a third party putting on bets for a gambling group. He would effectively sit in the pub/tab for hours a week and then put on bets when ever he got the call. He would effectively just pump in as many bets as possible, that were under a certain $ cut off point, until the market would get closed. There are so many systems out there to try and exploit the market while the companies would try and close every loophole they could see. He also helped to "buy" sports betting accounts off people who didnt use them so they could play arbitrage between companies until they would all eventually get locked out.

He now works for Sports Bet writing models for various sports

Yep, I know someone who buys “ID’s” as part of a set up to open new accounts. This is going back quite a few years ago now, but the going rate was $500.

 

[martinson]

Yep, I know someone who buys “ID’s” as part of a set up to open new accounts. This is going back quite a few years ago now, but the going rate was $500.

Any individual who's trying to punt professionally now has to set up dummy accounts and drip small amounts in to them until they get picked up for being winning accounts. The days of the big individual punters are gone and it's just a wage now for anyone trying to do it.

There are a couple of big syndicates who rely on maths, arbitrage and probability and they dominate most of the Tote betting. The totes also give them rebates on volume which is basically their winning margin.

 

[dlanod]

I notice riewoldt saying he has no idea about the dissent rule. After the ridiculous call against Coniglio I can understand his concerns cos he is one of the worst offenders with his throwing out of the arms. Would have loved it if it had been him instead penalised.

I suspect it will never get paid in similar circumstances against him (or Lynch, who is very similar).

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I probably punt 2-3 times a year, but I've got a mate with accounts all over the place - it's not his main wage by any stretch, but he can afford several nice OS holidays a year for his family off his betting activity.

However, if you're essentially receiving free money by exploiting loopholes through betting endorsement, I don't think you can be too aggrieved at them being shut down and your activity limited. I do have sympathy if you're just making money off having a good eye and/or a proclivity for mathematics and stats. But it's not much different to casinos who can move people on if they win often enough or count cards. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with it, just noting the similarity.

At the same time, I think the pervasiveness of betting into mainstream advertising and society is pretty disgusting and should definitely be clamped down on - a ban on signup promotions and time limits for betting ads and promotion would be a good start.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I think online gambling should be banned. A trip to the TAB and seeing some of the characters hanging out there would be enough to put most people off gambling

 

[Elixuh]

I probably punt 2-3 times a year, but I've got a mate with accounts all over the place - it's not his main wage by any stretch, but he can afford several nice OS holidays a year for his family off his betting activity.

However, if you're essentially receiving free money by exploiting loopholes through betting endorsement, I don't think you can be too aggrieved at them being shut down and your activity limited. I do have sympathy if you're just making money off having a good eye and/or a proclivity for mathematics and stats. But it's not much different to casinos who can move people on if they win often enough or count cards. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with it, just noting the similarity.

At the same time, I think the pervasiveness of betting into mainstream advertising and society is pretty disgusting and should definitely be clamped down on - a ban on signup promotions and time limits for betting ads and promotion would be a good start.

Endorsements, incentives, inducements etc should be banned.

 

[martinson]

I probably punt 2-3 times a year, but I've got a mate with accounts all over the place - it's not his main wage by any stretch, but he can afford several nice OS holidays a year for his family off his betting activity.

However, if you're essentially receiving free money by exploiting loopholes through betting endorsement, I don't think you can be too aggrieved at them being shut down and your activity limited. I do have sympathy if you're just making money off having a good eye and/or a proclivity for mathematics and stats. But it's not much different to casinos who can move people on if they win often enough or count cards. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with it, just noting the similarity.

At the same time, I think the pervasiveness of betting into mainstream advertising and society is pretty disgusting and should definitely be clamped down on - a ban on signup promotions and time limits for betting ads and promotion would be a good start.

If you've ever tried to make a living gambling via form or judgement you realise that 99% of those who try fail.

The corporates shut down anyone who looks like they might be professional and successful in that sense.

As far as exploiting loopholes in endorsements go the endorsements are chicken feed and if you get endorsements and win either via endorsements or otherwise they shut you down . In the end the only punters who get endorsements consistently lose consistently. And they're always small fry.

The business model is to bring on board as many punters who consistently lose or likely to and cut anyone who wins.

They take zero risks whereas the bookmakers of old risked plenty.

It's sad to see the demise of the betting landscape we used to have but they're in bed with the administrators of racing and sports and Governments are getting a big feed off it so as a money making proposition for individuals it's dead.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

If you've ever tried to make a living gambling via form or judgement you realise that 99% of those who try fail.

The corporates shut down anyone who looks like they might be professional and successful in that sense.

As far as exploiting loopholes in endorsements go the endorsements are chicken feed and if you get endorsements and win either via endorsements or otherwise they shut you down . In the end the only punters who get endorsements consistently lose consistently. And they're always small fry.

The business model is to bring on board as many punters who consistently lose or likely to and cut anyone who wins.

They take zero risks whereas the bookmakers of old risked plenty.

It's sad to see the demise of the betting landscape we used to have but they're in bed with the administrators of racing and sports and Governments are getting a big feed off it so as a money making proposition for individuals it's dead.

Something had to replace the income from taxes on tobacco I suppose.

 

[Jivlain]

Any individual who's trying to punt professionally now has to set up dummy accounts and drip small amounts in to them until they get picked up for being winning accounts. The days of the big individual punters are gone and it's just a wage now for anyone trying to do it.

There are a couple of big syndicates who rely on maths, arbitrage and probability and they dominate most of the Tote betting. The totes also give them rebates on volume which is basically their winning margin.

Fun fact: the ternary Golay code, an invention in the mathematical field known of coding theory, was discovered independently by a Finnish footballing enthusiast, a couple years earlier, for betting on soccer matches.

 

[Section 5]

A little article on Wilmot

MSN

 

[Tom14]

3KZisFootball made some points the other day about - sorry if im putting words in his mouth, but not far off - that a lot of the ommissions in Fages error are 'usual suspects' and that no name players are ever dropped in Fages era, so I checked (list doesn't include suspensions, injuries or rested players like Birchall and Hodge were at times) - below doesn't include season 2017 only 2018 up to the game against Dogs last weeK:

2018
Jacob Allison - 1
Zac Bailey - 1
Jake Barrett - 1
Ryan Bastinac - 2
Tom Bell -1
Rohan Bewick - 1
Cedric Cox - 2
Ben Keays - 1
Ryan Lester - 3
Rhys Mathieson - 1
Sam Mayes - 2
Daniel McStay - 1
Josh Walker - 1

2019
Jacob Allison - 1
Ryan Bastinac - 1
Allen Christensen - 1
Cedric Cox - 1
Tom Cutler - 1
Mitch Hinge -1
Ben Keays - 2
Ryan Lester - 1
Rhys Mathieson - 1
Nick Robertson - 2
Archie Smith - 1
Brandon Starcevich - 1
Lewis Taylor - 1
Josh Walker - 4

2020
Noah Answerth - 1
Tom Berry - 2
Keidean Coleman - 1
Matthew Eagles - 1
Cam Ellis-Yolmen - 1
Mitch Hinge - 1
Rhys Mathieson - 1
Jack Payne - 1
Deven Robertson - 1
Archie Smith - 2
Alex Witherden - 2

2021
Callum Ah Chee - 1
Connor Ballenden - 1
Tom Berry - 5
Keidean Coleman - 2
Tom Fullarton - 1
Ryan Lester - 1
James Madden - 3
Rhys Mathieson - 3
Jaxon Prior - 4
Deven Robertson - 2
Harry Sharp - 1

2022
Callum Ah Chee - 1
Tom Berry - 2
Nakia Cockatoo - 3
Darcy Fort - 4
Tom Fullarton - 4
Ryan Lester - 3
James Madden - 2
Carter Michael - 1
Jack Payne - 2
Jaxon Prior - 2
Mitch Robinson - 3
Deven Robertson - 2
Harry Sharp - 2
James Tunstill - 1

2023
Jaxon Prior - 1
Deven Robertson - 1
James Tunstill - 1

Totals
Tom Berry - 9
Ryan Lester - 8
Rhys Mathieson - 6
Tom Fullarton - 5
James Madden - 5
Jaxon Prior - 5
Deven Robertson - 5
Josh Walker - 5
Darcy Fort - 4
Ryan Bastinac - 3
Nakia Cockatoo - 3
Keidean Coleman - 3
Cedric Cox - 3
Ben Keays - 3
Jack Payne - 3
Mitch Robinson - 3
Nick Robertson - 3
Harry Sharp - 3
Archie Smith - 3
Callum Ah Chee - 2
Jacob Allison - 2
Mitch Hinge - 2
Sam Mayes - 2
James Tunstill - 2
Alex Witherden - 2
Noah Answerth - 1
Zac Bailey - 1
Connor Bellenden - 1
Jake Barrett - 1
Tom Bell -1
Rohan Bewick - 1
Allen Christensen - 1
Tom Cutler - 1
Matthew Eagles - 1
Cam Ellis-Yolmen - 1
Daniel McStay - 1
Carter Michael - 1
Brandon Starcevich - 1
Lewis Taylor - 1

What I would say about that is that Fges has droped 3KZ biggest name player a lot ' Lester' . But in seriousness, Kiddy, Bails and Starc cant really be included as they were early in their careers. What the list does show is that not once has Fages made a statement at selection table by dropping a big name underperforming player and sending a message to the group. I suspect w/o knowing footy as well as a lot on here that that must breed complacency with players taking their spots for granted and knowing, literally, that they are undroppable.

Its totally irrelevant of course that we've won the second most home and away games since 2019, behind only Geelong.

I think if you looked at most teams then you'd find that they also are tinkering around the edges of selection as teams generally want to play their best players all the time.

 

[Dalions]

I was just simply presenting a list of the ommissions throughout Fagan's era - not trying to judge how many games won loss or any other analysis - thats it!

Really though, was just trying to see if there had been a big name dropping in ahat 17-23 period - there wasnt

Others can make what ever inferences they want from there - as a discussion point - i thought it was an interesting exercise - i know others wont tho which is fine

Probably also need to take into account that a lot of those blokes may have only got an opportunity due to injury and we’re probably on a hiding to nothing anyway because as soon as the injured player was available they were the first one out.

 

[BRAB]

I was just simply presenting a list of the ommissions throughout Fagan's era - not trying to judge how many games won loss or any other analysis - thats it!

Really though, was just trying to see if there had been a big name dropping in ahat 17-23 period - there wasnt

Others can make what ever inferences they want from there - as a discussion point - i thought it was an interesting exercise - i know others wont tho which is fine

You have presented the idea that Fagan has “never made a statement by dropping an underperforming player” which is probably more likely to happen after a loss. So to get the full picture on that you really need to consider wins and losses too. A big portion of the list above would just be the result of us not losing many games.

We know that Fagan backs his players of course. Probably didn’t need the data above to reach that conclusion.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Have to compare it to other teams.

Which big names have Melbourne or Geelong dropped over the past few years?

 

[BRAB]

Then please request the moderators to delete my post - I didnt know that Fagan didnt drop players until i saw the data - clearly you and a w others do w/o needing the data - im also obviously not as eductaed as many of you about the Lions and trust me theres been times ive posted stuff w/o data that people say there is no basis for saying something - there is simply no pleasing many of you on here, it makes you wonder why you even bother ................

I wouldn’t feel too bad about it mate. You’re still more data literate than David King.

If you focused on the data after a big loss or alternatively, compared it to other successful teams it could be interesting. You obviously spent a lot of time collating it so sorry if I made you feel like you wasted your time. It is good to have it laid out like that regardless so thanks.

 

[HereIGoAgain]

Then please request the moderators to delete my post - I didnt know that Fagan didnt drop players until i saw the data - clearly you and a w others do w/o needing the data - im also obviously not as eductaed as many of you about the Lions and trust me theres been times ive posted stuff w/o data that people say there is no basis for saying something - there is simply no pleasing many of you on here, it makes you wonder why you even bother ................

I think the numbers that you have presented proves that Fagan doesn't drop players on form regardless of wins and losses. Thanks for posting them.

 

[CarterS]

There's an article on SEN about Dev Robertson maybe leaving to seek more opportunities at the end of the season. I'd still like to see him work his way into the team - had a great finals series last year.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Then please request the moderators to delete my post - I didnt know that Fagan didnt drop players until i saw the data - clearly you and a w others do w/o needing the data - im also obviously not as eductaed as many of you about the Lions and trust me theres been times ive posted stuff w/o data that people say there is no basis for saying something - there is simply no pleasing many of you on here, it makes you wonder why you even bother ................

I appreciated the post McIvor .

 

[martinson]

The fact that Fagan is stubborn and won't drop certain players whatever happens is self evident . Surprised anyone would think otherwise.

Whether that's the right strategy time will tell , or maybe even has told, It must be frustrating for any players usually on the verge of selection

I don't think I've ever seen too many players go worse than Rayner did a few times and hold their spot . I don't know whether that's helped or hindered him but it seems that Rayner has a lot of influence within the group for someone that's not in the Leadership 8 or 9.

All of this are just observations , not a criticism of the club or coaches , just observations and wondering whether we're making the right choices. Which is why we're here talking about it.

 

[Viceregal]

Sometimes the 'things we know' are actually furphies and when we crunch the data we have an 'oh' moment where we either accept the new reality or use our favourite coping mechanism for dealing with cognative dissonance.

Had McIvor found something unexpected it would have been great - that he found the expected doesn't make the journey fruitless nor sharing it pointless.

The same thing happens with player x is a lousy contested mark ... then you find he has the most in the team ... then you find that he is above average for the league or even statistically elite but all of that was masked by the mental preconception that x cant catch.




Of course some of those who were regularly dropped, had they been played more regularly and in their best positions might be undroppable best 22 now ... in the the past of that alternate timeline's future Fagan indeed did drop big names ... we just don't realise it on our own version of 'reality'

 

[SizeMatters]

The fact that Fagan is stubborn and won't drop certain players whatever happens is self evident . Surprised anyone would think otherwise.

Whether that's the right strategy time will tell , or maybe even has told, It must be frustrating for any players usually on the verge of selection

I don't think I've ever seen too many players go worse than Rayner did a few times and hold their spot . I don't know whether that's helped or hindered him but it seems that Rayner has a lot of influence within the group for someone that's not in the Leadership 8 or 9.

All of this are just observations , not a criticism of the club or coaches , just observations and wondering whether we're making the right choices. Which is why we're here talking about it.

I agree. Week after week there are the usual suspects who are performing well below their ability. Just inconsistent blokes who definitely deserved to be dropped. There is no accountability in our team. Imagine if we had a decent coach… they wouldn’t allow this kind of rot to infiltrate throughout the squad. Imagine if Chris Scott expected performance from the squad the same way Fagan does… he Wouldn’t be a premiership coach.

Complacency breeds laziness.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

So I have the opportunity to buy a red size 5 Sherrin Lyrebird footy signed by the whole 2014 Lions team. Obviously not the most accomplished of Lions teams but some good players at the end and beginning of their careers. Anyone got any suggestions of what might be a fair price? I don't want to rip them off.

 

[Quested]

So I have the opportunity to buy a red size 5 Sherrin Lyrebird footy signed by the whole 2014 Lions team. Obviously not the most accomplished of Lions teams but some good players at the end and beginning of their careers. Anyone got any suggestions of what might be a fair price? I don't want to rip them off.

I mean, there's a 2003 one signed by Leigh Matthews, Jonathan Brown, Simon Black and more for $350, so maybe use that as a benchmark

 

[brizrider]

Have these guys been retired?

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

I mean, there's a 2003 one signed by Leigh Matthews, Jonathan Brown, Simon Black and more for $350, so maybe use that as a benchmark

Dunno -- that's a premiership team, and one of the greatest ever. That example would give you the absolute maximum value for a signed footy but doesn't really tell you much about the fair price of one signed by a bottom four team.

Not much around on eBay that I can see.