"Form is irrelevant in Showdowns" - is it true?

[cmndstab]

It seems to be commonly accepted that results can go either way in a Showdown and that ladder positions mean nothing when our two Adelaide teams meet on the park. I must admit, I always thought it was bunk - my recollection was that Port always won when they were in their dominant period from 01-04, and likewise we always won when we were in our dominant era of 05-06, but I figured I'd go and look anyway and see what I found. Hopefully the analysis will show that we have a chance this week!

I've italicised the games in which the lower-positioned club won the match.

Showdown 1: Round 4, 1997. Adelaide: 10th, Port: 14th.
Port win by 11.

Showdown 2: Round 19, 1997. Adelaide: 2nd, Port: 8th.
Crows win by 7.

Showdown 3: Round 4, 1998. Adelaide: 9th, Port: 10th.
Port win by 9.

Showdown 4: Round 19, 1998. Adelaide: 6th, Port: 10th.
Crows win by 74.

Showdown 5: Round 6, 1999. Adelaide: 5th, Port: 6th.
Crows win by 28.

Showdown 6: Round 21, 1999. Adelaide: 13th, Port: 7th.
Port win by 24.

Showdown 7: Round 7, 2000. Adelaide: 14th, Port: 15th.
Crows win by 7.

Showdown 8: Round 22, 2000. Adelaide: 11th, Port: 15th.
Port win by 47.

Showdown 9: Round 3, 2001. Adelaide: 14th, Port: 12th.
Port win by 65.

Showdown 10: Round 18, 2001. Adelaide: 11th, Port: 4th.
Port win by 8.

Showdown 11: Round 5, 2002. Adelaide: 4th, Port: 5th.
Port win by 8.

Showdown 12: Round 20, 2002. Adelaide: 3rd, Port: 2nd.
Port win by 8.

Showdown 13: Round 5, 2003. Adelaide: 2nd, Port: 7th.
Port win by 12.

Showdown 14: Round 22, 2003. Adelaide: 4th, Port: 1st.
Port win by 16.

Showdown 15: Round 6, 2004. Adelaide: 14th, Port: 3rd.
Crows win by 18.

Showdown 16: Round 22, 2004. Adelaide: 12th, Port: 1st.
Port win by 25.

Showdown 17: Round 3, 2005. Adelaide: 9th, Port: 13th.
Crows win by 68.

Showdown 18: Round 20, 2005. Adelaide: 2nd, Port: 9th.
Crows win by 7.

Showdown 19: Semi Final, 2005. Adelaide finished: 1st, Port finished: 8th.
Crows win by 83.

Showdown 20: Round 6, 2006. Adelaide: 2nd, Port: 11th.
Crows win by 50.

Showdown 21: Round 21, 2006. Adelaide: 2nd, Port: 11th.
Crows win by 6.

Showdown 22: Round 3, 2007. Adelaide: 7th, Port: 3rd.
Crows win by 24.

Showdown 23: Round 18, 2007. Adelaide: 12th, Port: 3rd.
Crows win by 8.

Showdown 24: Round 3, 2008. Adelaide: 6th, Port: 15th.
Crows win by 6.

Showdown 25: Round 16, 2008. Adelaide: 6th, Port: 13th.
Port win by 12.

Showdown 26: Round 6, 2009. Adelaide: 7th, Port: 5th.
Port win by 26.

Showdown 27: Round 17, 2009. Adelaide: 6th, Port 9th.
Crows win by 70.



So, 9 times out of 27, or a third of the matches, the lower-positioned team has won the match.


Of those 9 matches:

• 6 of them were the first match played in the year, when the ladder had not had a proper chance to settle yet.
• Only 3 were won by the Crows.
• 6 of those upsets occurred when our two teams were on the same side of the ladder - but only one belongs to the Crows.

Of the 11 times the Crows have gone into a Showdown sitting in the bottom 8, Port have won 7 times. Only twice have we beaten Port when both sides sat in the bottom 8.


Some other random things that stuck out to me...

• This Showdown will be the lowest ladder position we have ever entered a Showdown in. We've been 14th three times, but never 15th.
• I knew we came from nowhere to make the finals in 2007, but geez, I'd forgotten that we were sitting in 12th place after round 17
• Port seem to record their largest victories when we're not that far apart on the ladder.

All in all, it looks ominous for this Saturday afternoon. Fingers crossed we can go against the odds

 

[Southerntakeover]

I cant be screwed reading all of that.

The answer is no.

 

[Allefgib]

I cant be screwed reading all of that.

The answer is no.

Lazy AND negative.

Sheesh - you'll be given a guernsey soon

 

[graps]

I've always thought that was a fallacy and your stats back it up.
I figure its just a line the clubs feed out so that both sets of fans show up no matter how poor their side is traveling, which is perpetuated by lazy journalists from other states.

We really racked up some Showdown wins between 2005-2008.

 

[Firewalker]

I think that form is relevant and believe it always is, how else can you tell how the teams going , 0 - 5 sums our form up perfectly

by the way I think this line has been purposely talked up this week to try and create more hype about the game, so that it seems more like an even contest from the outset between the two teams because it's never been proven in the past.

 

[KUNG FU]

I'm disappointed there wasn't a line graph Stabby.

 

[LC40]

I always gave more credence to the fact once we recruited Ben Hudson to the team we finally had a ruck man who could manhandle both Lade and Brogan and not let them dominate us at the stoppages.

Of course our form was good but Hudson had that little bit of mongrel in him that
was enough to tip the scales in our favour.

Since he has left the balance is once more Ports way that is why I feel we definitely need to play two rucks and leave Tippett in the forward line.
Keep jumping into Brogan all day and not let them dominate us in this area.

 

[Cap]

it think those stats dispell the media created myth about showdowns and why its such a created "grudge" match.

It will be interesting to see if we can reverse history, given that this season we have lost to our preninal bunnies and teams that can't win at AAMI, i'm hoping that we change some history in our favour.

 

[Macca19]

Port won Showdown 21.

 

[Alex99]

I've always thought that was a fallacy and your stats back it up.
I figure its just a line the clubs feed out so that both sets of fans show up no matter how poor their side is traveling, which is perpetuated by lazy journalists from other states.

We really racked up some Showdown wins between 2005-2008.

Of course it’s a fallacy. As soon as Collingwood play Carlton or Essendon the same line get wheeled out. As soon as the West Coast play Fremantle that lines get wheeled out. Basically as soon as any teams with a bit of history and tradition line up against each other, it’s the easiest thing to say to make the ‘idiots of this world’ believe the hype and spin being sprouted. ‘Form goes out the window’, it’s nothing more than a football cliché these days.

 

[WALL-e]

Form is relevent, but the atmosphere and importance of a showdown just gets everyone jacked, improving poor performance slightly.

They usually turn into slug fests.

God I hope we win and I don't fly back angry.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I think there is something in it to be honest.

Form of course plays a significant role but does it play less of a role in Showdowns than it does in other matches? Footy tipping alone should tell you that Showdowns, Derbys and games between Coll-Carl-Ess are absolute bastards to tip. Urban myth...? Conventional wisdom... ? Perhaps.

Tough to compare Crows vs Port with, say, Crows vs Anyone Else due to the home state advantage but it would be interesting to compare games between Coll-Carl-Ess to see how often the lower ranked team wins and then compare it to games between those three clubs and the other Victorian teams.

 

[srv23]

I don't think form is irrelevant and your analysis does show that during Ports dominant years they won quite a few in a row. When we started to improve in 05 the tide turned back in our favour.

I think the form is irrelevant line comes up because regardless of form and ladder position the game are often close. From 01 -04 Port won 7 and we won 1 but if you look through the reults as a general rule the games were pretty close - 6 of the 8 were within 3 goals. Likewise when we started to turn things around we had a handful of big wins but a lot of the games were once again pretty close. In the end though - the team with the better form at the time tended to ultimately win the game.

 

[SCD Reborn]

The Crows are missing too many players, so while form may be irrelevant, personnel isn't....

We are missing from;

BEST 22

D MacKay
P Dangerfield
N Bock
A Otten
B Symes
B Moran (was in best 22 by 1/2 way through last year)

Fringe Players
B Martin
R Henderson (played this year)
J Sellar (played this year)
T Hentschel (played this year)
R Sloane (played this year)

Players coming off injuries
J Porplyzia
C Knights
B Burton
S Stevens
N Van Berlo

The only thing that might save us this week is it's VB's 100th game and we usually get right up for them

 

[RoosterLad]

People always say 'form means nothing' in these derby style games but most of that is rubbish. They said that about the ANZAC Day game and Essendon didn't even put up a fight.

 

[Go U Dogs]

thats fair enough sorry a just think that they could do better

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

People always say 'form means nothing' in these derby style games but most of that is rubbish. They said that about the ANZAC Day game and Essendon didn't even put up a fight.

Last year Essendon won though and no one would have tipped that.

Form doesn't mean nothing, maybe it just means less.

 

[Go U Dogs]

okay

 

[RoosterLad]

You do make a good point Carl, sometimes upsets do occur I guess, the fact is if our players can't get themselves up for the game this week and play with a bit of passion they might as well get delisted straight after the game.

 

[cmndstab]

Port won Showdown 21.

Whoops I recorded that results as 91 to 85 instead of 81 to 95


I can certainly agree that, at least in terms of intuition, form may mean somewhat less in rivalry matches than in general matches, but I think that when one team is significantly outperforming the other they almost always win, regardless of what rivalry exists between them.


The AFL is a very hard sport to analyse though because upsets occur much more often than in most other sports, or at least so my intuition tells me.

 

[Dujon11]

I think it could just be the setting that runs a few of our big game players into form.

McLeod
Porps
Tippett

If they have average games this week, we're gone.

 

[Go U Dogs]

Even though i don't like crows McLeod is my fav. player

 

[Damp Squarie]

I think it could just be the setting that runs a few of our big game players into form.

McLeod
Porps
Tippett

If they have average games this week, we're gone.

You forgot to add Edwards
But you are right - we are all hoping for some form turnaround.

Hey cmndstab... have we won more home games than them? Just clutching at another straw here.

 

[Smoooothy]

i think the answer is in the margins, the result may not always go to the lower side, but there is certainly a "fighting" theme with the results - no matter of ladder position

 

[cmndstab]

You forgot to add Edwards
But you are right - we are all hoping for some form turnaround.

Hey cmndstab... have we won more home games than them? Just clutching at another straw here.

I'm too depressed after hearing about our latest injuries to go and look it up


I guess we'll see what happens this weekend.