_Mike_
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- Aug 10, 2009
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GAME DAY IS HERE
It's debatable, though the latest odds have Hawthorn a warm favorite at $1.48, the Bulldogs paying $2.70.
That's a legacy of the universal respect for the Hawks' capacity to respond to adversity in the appropriate manner, and perhaps the historical dominance of qualifying-final losers – 26 out of 28 of whom had won their semi-finals over 13 seasons before three of the last four went out in straight sets.
But it could also be selling the Bulldogs more than a little short. Their win over West Coast in Perth last week was as good a performance as they've turned in all year, the trademark hardness at the contest seemingly supplemented also by a renewed attacking bent and dare with ball in hand. The result was their second-highest score over the back half of the season.
Their one clash this season was a long time ago, back in round three, but the Dogs did everything but take the points, winning virtually every key statistic except the one that counted most, the scoreboard, leading until James Sicily's last-minute goal.
Can the Hawks keep defying the statistical trends?
They might be last in the AFL for contested ball, but the Hawks have made a mockery of its importance this year through precise skills and the exertion of enough pressure on the opposition ball-carrier, forcing turnovers in dangerous areas. They were beaten for contested possession by a whopping 52 against Geelong last week, yet had a big win of their own for uncontested ball, 72 more than managed the Cats.
But the Bulldogs are the AFL's No.1 ranked team for both contested and uncontested possession, and if those strengths hold, the Hawks are going to struggle to win enough football in any circumstance.
Scoring is far and away the most concerning statistic for Hawthorn. In each of their past three premiership years, they've ranked No.1 for points scored. In 2016, they're only sixth, averaging nearly three goals per game less than last year.
Battle of the midfield
Not indisputably, but Geelong's eclipse of the Hawks in the midfield last week and the tremendous games of Bulldog on-ballers like Caleb Daniel and Luke Dahlhaus went a long way towards their respective victories. Daniel is a gun for the Doggies, not only a prolific ball-winner but a tremendous user, and he and Dahlhaus were freer to play more positive games last week with Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae back in the mix.
Ball pressure a key, says Beveridge
Coach Luke Beveridge says shutting down Hawthorn's dangerous small forwards in Friday night's semi-final will be crucial. In the absence of Jarryd Roughead, the Dogs' renowned team defence will have its hands full curtailing a pint-sized attack containing Cyril Rioli (46 goals), Luke Breust (46) and Paul Puopolo (33). Medium-sized forwards Jack Gunston (50) and James Sicily (29) will also pose a considerable problem. "The Hawthorn small forwards have been incredibly dangerous and they provide a significant aerial and ground threat," Beveridge told reporters on Thursday.
"We'll need to put enough pressure on the ball and give our defenders a chance to win it back really quickly. "A bigger and wider ground and being able to defend the extremities of the MCG is always a big challenge.
"That will have a big say on the outcome."
Jake Stringer must fire for the Dogs to be a chance against Hawthorn. Picture: AFL Photos
Join the March to the 'G this Friday night
The Pack is Gathering again and we’re encouraging all Western Bulldogs members and fans to help turn the city into a sea of red, white and blue as we march as one from Federation Square to the MCG ahead of Friday night's semi final against Hawthorn.
The Federation Square main stage will be the meeting point at 5:00pm with the march to begin at 6:00pm. Comedian and banner man Danny McGinlay will MC the event which will also include a range of celebrity guests and past players.
The Bulldogs Shop will be on site to make sure all supporters are decked out in club colours, as well as selling the limited edition #bemorebulldog finals merchandise range.
There will also be plenty of giveaways to ensure all our fans are well equipped to support the team under the Friday night lights at the MCG.
#BeMoreBulldog – March to the G
5:00pm – Arrival at Federation Square
5:25pm – Introduction On Stage from MC Danny McGinlay
5:30pm - Special Guests announced on stage
5:40pm – President Peter Gordon to speak to the Bulldogs faithful
5:55pm – Depart Federation Square for the MCG
6:15pm – Arrival at MCG (Gate 2)
7:50pm – First Bounce
Show how you are preparing for the finals by using #BeMoreBulldog & #BeMoreFinals
Team Selection
The 6 points.
1. The Bulldogs dominated disposals (418-331), clearances (+16) and led by 19 points at three-quarter time in round three but lost by three points, with Hawks young gun James Sicily booting three final-term goals.
2. The Bulldogs only average 85 points per game this season – the lowest of any top eight side - but kicked 14.15 (99) in the elimination final against West Coast. Hawthorn averages 96 points per game.
3. Hawthorn has won the past eight meetings between the sides since the Bulldogs' last win in round three, 2010. Only two of those games though have been at the MCG, with three at Etihad Stadium and three at Aurora Stadium.
4. The Bulldogs are likely to command the contested possession battle on Friday night. They average nearly 149 per match, compared to the Hawks' 131.
5. The Hawks have never lost to the Bulldogs in four finals, the most recent being the 51-point 2008 qualifying final victory.
6. The Hawks will field eight players in the top 100 of the Schick AFL Player Ratings compared to the Dogs' six, but star pup Marcus Bontempelli (No.6 overall) will be the highest ranked player on the ground.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
Alastair Clarkson: "Last year we went across to the west and got annihilated by West Coast (in a qualifying final) and we were able to bounce back strongly and we're just going to have to do the same sort of thing."
Luke Beveridge: "The way we see the Hawks play and set up these days is very different to when I was there two years ago. I know they'll be treating us with respect and working out ways to get under our skin, but I don't think it helps (being a former Hawthorn assistant) a great deal especially because they have changed so much."
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs): Stringer was one of the few Bulldogs not to have a good night against the Eagles, so the he'll be hoping he can finally return to his All Australian form. Ben Stratton looms as his opponent after the tight-checking Hawk kept ‘The Package’ quiet in round three.
PREDICTION: Bulldogs by 17 points.
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