games decided by under a goal since our flag years

[GastevsBeard]

Confirming what we all know, here are the stats for us in games decided by a goal or less (ergo, a game where a goal in the dying stages could change the result):

2021 Round 4	LOST	2​	79 - 77	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Oval
2021 Round 9	WON	4​	87 - 83	GW Sydney	Marvel Stad
2021 Round 13	LOST	4​	85 - 81	West Coast	Optus Stad
2021 Round 20	LOST	4​	55 - 51	Fremantle	Optus Stad
2021 Round 23	DREW	0​	83 - 83	Hawthorn	MCG
2022 Round 11	LOST	6​	106 - 100	Sydney	SCG
2022 Round 15	LOST	3​	89 - 86	Geelong	MCG
2022 Round 17	LOST	2​	94 - 92	Gold Coast	Metricon Stad
2022 Round 18	LOST	4​	92 - 88	Nth Melbourne	Marvel Stad
2022 Round 19	DREW	0​	52 - 52	Fremantle	Marvel Stad
2022 QF-EF	LOST	2​	106 - 104	Brisbane	Gabba
2023 Round 1	DREW	0​	58 - 58	Carlton	MCG
2023 Round 4	LOST	5​	84 - 89	Western	MCG

Played: 13
Wins: 1
Draws: 3 (!)
Loss: 9 * (asterisk for the bullsh*t EF)

Makes for some sober reading, & it is something we desperately need to address. It has been the difference between making finals / top 4, & I think it has a corrosive effect on team confidence

Carlton seem to have emerged from their close-game woes this year - we have no excuse not to do the same

Thoughts on how we can address this

 

[fightingfury]

Carlton’s best players are entering/in their prime years. Ours are now over the hill

 

[tigs2010]

Get the umps to pay us a late free for dissent in the goal square and we win all those games in the first post

 

[Groupie_]

Carlton’s best players are entering/in their prime years. Ours are now over the hill

their best player is the umps

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Confirming what we all know, here are the stats for us in games decided by a goal or less (ergo, a game where a goal in the dying stages could change the result):

2021 Round 4	LOST	2​	79 - 77	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Oval
2021 Round 9	WON	4​	87 - 83	GW Sydney	Marvel Stad
2021 Round 13	LOST	4​	85 - 81	West Coast	Optus Stad
2021 Round 20	LOST	4​	55 - 51	Fremantle	Optus Stad
2021 Round 23	DREW	0​	83 - 83	Hawthorn	MCG
2022 Round 11	LOST	6​	106 - 100	Sydney	SCG
2022 Round 15	LOST	3​	89 - 86	Geelong	MCG
2022 Round 17	LOST	2​	94 - 92	Gold Coast	Metricon Stad
2022 Round 18	LOST	4​	92 - 88	Nth Melbourne	Marvel Stad
2022 Round 19	DREW	0​	52 - 52	Fremantle	Marvel Stad
2022 QF-EF	LOST	2​	106 - 104	Brisbane	Gabba
2023 Round 1	DREW	0​	58 - 58	Carlton	MCG
2023 Round 4	LOST	5​	84 - 89	Western	MCG

Played: 13
Wins: 1
Draws: 3 (!)
Loss: 9 * (asterisk for the bullsh*t EF)

Makes for some sober reading, & it is something we desperately need to address. It has been the difference between making finals / top 4, & I think it has a corrosive effect on team confidence

Carlton seem to have emerged from their close-game woes this year - we have no excuse not to do the same

Thoughts on how we can address this

Take the Adam Gilchrist approach. He was once asked what he would have in mind, what shot he would look to play if he needed 6 to win off the final ball of a match. He responded by saying he wouldn't get into that position in the first place.

But look at those games.

I think in all 3 draws we came from behind and did well to get the draw at the end of the game. One match we won, so it leaves 9 losses.

5 of the 9 losses we suffered very controversial umpiring decisions late in the games that could well have made a difference. I cannot recall any where we received the benefit of controversial umpiring decisions late. Our players are making errors at times in these clutch situations, but they are probably not making a greater amount of errors than the opposition players. 2017 we lost 3 games by under a goal and did not win a game by under 11 points. So losing all your close games doesn't necessarily preclude winning a flag.

 

[juss]

It's brutal reading. It's signs of mentally fragile players unable to hold their nerve or execute with pressure on, or it's poor coaching/instilling of confidence/belief by the coaching staff or it's both.

Compare that to Collingwood who are the masters of coming back and finishing the close games, its such a different approach. We cost ourselves seasons by losing those games, we cost ourself a shot at the 2022 Grand Final and it could cost us finals this year. Already down points from games we could have won if we were better in the tight stakes.

 

[Groupie_]

Compare that to Collingwood who are the masters of coming back and finishing the close games, its such a different approach. We cost ourselves seasons by losing those games, we cost ourself a shot at the 2022 Grand Final and it could cost us finals this year. Ready down points from games we could have won if we were better in the tight stakes.

colonwood also have ump assistance

no comparison

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It's brutal reading. It's signs of mentally fragile players unable to hold their nerve or execute with pressure on, or it's poor coaching/instilling of confidence/belief by the coaching staff or it's both.

Compare that to Collingwood who are the masters of coming back and finishing the close games, its such a different approach. We cost ourselves seasons by losing those games, we cost ourself a shot at the 2022 Grand Final and it could cost us finals this year. Already down points from games we could have won if we were better in the tight stakes.

Collingwood lost 2 finals by 6 points or less last year. We only lost 1.

 

[juss]

colonwood also have ump assistance

no comparison

Come on mate, agree we cop the raw end of it more than most, but if Cumberland slots that goal from barely 25 out yesterday or we win some sort of centre clearance we arguably win yesterday.

 

[Groupie_]

Come on mate, agree we cop the raw end of it more than most, but if Cumberland slots that goal from barely 25 out yesterday or we win some sort of centre clearance we arguably win yesterday.

cant compare, pies always get 50/50 calls. we never do

we would be close to the top of the ladder if we had their umpiring

 

[SavDog23]

Umps literally cost us in every one of those losses

 

[smasha]

With umpiring borrowed from any other team,we win all those games.

 

[No_Spoke]

Crappo team mentally fickle, good plan

 

[Daka]

Our strength during our premiership years was smashing teams & winning close games now we are always competitive but now can't win the close ones.

 

[GastevsBeard]

Def read big footy

 

[TiggerMan22]

Doesn't really tell the whole story tbh. A 5 point loss when you were 18 up with 5 mins to go is bad means you've played poorly at the end. A 5 points loss when you were down 18 with 5 mins to go means you've actually played pretty well.

You really need to look at the point differential towards the end. Who;e the results don't show it, we have actually shown to perform better late since we were playing from behind rather than getting run down (e.g the gold coast game)

Round	Result	Margin	Point differential in last 10ish mins	Score	Against	Ground
2021 Round 4	LOST	2	-4	79 - 77	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Oval
2021 Round 9	WON	4	+7	87 - 83	GW Sydney	Marvel Stad
2021 Round 13	LOST	4	-13	85 - 81	West Coast	Optus Stad
2021 Round 20	LOST	4	-7	55 - 51	Fremantle	Optus Stad
2021 Round 23	DREW	0	+25	83 - 83	Hawthorn	MCG
2022 Round 11	LOST	6	+1	106 - 100	Sydney	SCG
2022 Round 15	LOST	3	-1	89 - 86	Geelong	MCG
2022 Round 17	LOST	2	-19	94 - 92	Gold Coast	Metricon Stad
2022 Round 18	LOST	4	-8	92 - 88	Nth Melbourne	Marvel Stad
2022 Round 19	DREW	0	-6	52 - 52	Fremantle	Marvel Stad
2022 QF-EF	LOST	2	-5	106 - 104	Brisbane	Gabba
2023 Round 1	DREW	0	+6	58 - 58	Carlton	MCG
2023 Round 4	LOST	5	+10	84 - 89	Western	MCG

Also just showing games 'under a goal' (Sydney shouldn't count then as its not under a goal) doesn't show the full story either. Against Brisbane last year it was equal with 6 mins to go and we score 7-0. That is a close win that should be part of this but because we played well and won by 7 it doesn't count?

 

[TiggerMan22]

Def read big footy

If only we scored 1 less point against Brisbane last year. Then we would've won by 6 and it would have been included. Too bad we actually performed.

Which shows why looking at the end result is dumb af. If you want to look at performance in close games, maybe look at results for games under a goal with the last 5/10 minutes.

 

[Wooden Robot]

Mentally fragile and lost our cutting edge.
Not sure who used the analogy from Adam Gilchrist, but it's a good one.
We can do plenty to avoid having to win late. Saturday was a prime example.
Back in 2019 and 20 I'd back us in to win the close ones, these days I'm waiting for the fail and the pressure to consume us.