Geelong- the dark horse?

[QuietB]

Average? They had won 15 and lost 1 by this time last year.

Maybe it was a bit later than this, but when they got beaten by Sydney in Geelong they were hardly high in premiership calculations. My point is that they turned it around in a big way last year and it is possible that will do that again.

 

[TheRoo32]

You mean the Eagles that got done by Sydney at home the week before and scraped in against North a week earlier. Adelaide's form is overstated. And the Eagles are in a slump.

Actually, I forgot the Crows got done by North too. I know you can only beat who you play, but the Crows have been handed a very nice draw with 3 free hits in the first 16 rounds(GWSx2 & GC), and are not a Top 2 team.

Geelong have also had 3 free hits in the first 16 rounds. Playing GWS, Melbourne and limping past the Gold Coast yet Crows are equal top and Geelong are 7th. The easy part of our draw hasnt happened yet...

 

[Hoffy95]

WTF!? Geelong are not a horse.

 

[TheRoo32]

You mean the Eagles that got done by Sydney at home the week before and scraped in against North a week earlier. Adelaide's form is overstated. And the Eagles are in a slump.

Actually, I forgot the Crows got done by North too. I know you can only beat who you play, but the Crows have been handed a very nice draw with 3 free hits in the first 16 rounds(GWSx2 & GC), and are not a Top 2 team.

You mean the Eagles and Swans that both dealt with you? And then theres Geelong and even Richmond who also beat you!
All these 4 teams the Crows have beaten. Abit of respect wouldnt go astray...

 

[ok.crows]

No, it would be 9/3, or 3 to 1. If we are treating those wins as gimmes, only fair to take them out of the equation when creating odds.

But the fixture is set according to the ladder position last year at the time when the fixture was drawn up. Admittedly the basic principle is compromised by all kinds of caveats, special games and special requests, but basically the fixture is supposed to give each team 3 double-up games with other teams who finished in the same half of the ladder, and two double-up games with other teams who finished in the opposite half of the ladder.

Adelaide finished 14th last year, so GWS and GCS are two of the three double-up games in the Crows fixture against sides from the same half of the ladder ... that being the lower half. The other team is Port.

OK, so if we take away a double-up game against GCS or GWS from the Crows, they have to play someone else, and that team would be one of the sides which finished in the lower half of the ladder last year.

Only fair to take teams who finished in the upper half of the ladder last year out of the equation when creating odds.

So the 4 to 1 odds stand. At least. That is probably a conservative minimum, it would more likely be 8 to 1.

 

[TheRoo32]

Would've thought this was the bay with all the Victorian Bias flying around...

 

[ok.crows]

Apart from the fact that your losses have been by bigger margins, and 3 of Geelongs losses have been by 12pts and under. But yeah, somehow that translates to "twice as bad" as Adelaide's average losing margin of 38pts.

Twice as many losses is twice as bad. Geelong fail this year twice as often as the Crows Crows do. What is so hard to understand about that? Geelong are twice as unreliable.

If you look at it in terms of (minimal) losses rather than (maximum) wins, it essentially takes the "easy games" question out of the equation. We are no longer worried about how many easy opponents each team has had, we focus only on how often they stuff up. Geelong have stuffed up twice as often as the Crows have.

I would have thought this a simple enough concept for even a Hawks fan to grasp the logic. Perhaps it is (and I need not lower even further my impression of the reasoning ability of Hawks fans), but your bias is simply too strong for you to admit it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

You mean the Eagles and Swans that both dealt with you? And then theres Geelong and even Richmond who also beat you!
All these 4 teams the Crows have beaten. Abit of respect wouldnt go astray...

Sorry, I don't rate the form of Sydney or Adelaide as the two best teams in the comp.

 

[TheRoo32]

Sorry, I don't rate the form of Sydney or Adelaide as the two best teams in the comp.

Neither do I. At the moment I have Hawthorn as the best team then Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood on the level behind them. But as we have seen this year theres still 6 weeks till finals and alot can happen in that time.
But you saying Adelaide should be 7th is an absolute joke and proves you have 0 credibility...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Twice as many losses is twice as bad. Geelong fail this year twice as often as the Crows Crows do. What is so hard to understand about that? Geelong are twice as unreliable.

If you look at it in terms of (minimal) losses rather than (maximum) wins, it essentially takes the "easy games" question out of the equation. We are no longer worried about how many easy opponents each team has had, we focus only on how often they stuff up. Geelong have stuffed up twice as often as the Crows have.

I'll just reiterate.

Geelong have the smaller average losing margin, with a much tougher draw.

 

[TheRoo32]

I'll just reiterate.

Geelong have the smaller average losing margin, with a much tougher draw.

Of course they do. They should have the toughest draw being reigning premiers!
Adelaide were 14th so naturally should have one of the more comfortable draws! Try thinking things through abit and using some logic in the future

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Neither do I. At the moment I have Hawthorn as the best team then Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood on the level behind them. But as we have seen this year theres still 6 weeks till finals and alot can happen in that time.
But you saying Adelaide should be 7th is an absolute joke and proves you have 0 credibility...

I never said Adelaide should be 7th though, did I.

I said you've benefited from having played GWS twice plus GC.

 

[Hoffy95]

Of course they do. They should have the toughest draw being reigning premiers!
Adelaide were 14th so naturally should have one of the more comfortable draws! Try thinking things through abit and using some logic in the future

Yeh nah. Welcome to football. Enjoi ur stay.

 

[Jammer]

Admire the Cats but no longer the team they were....... great teams rarely fall apart over night they start mixing form on their way back down..... thats where the Cats are now...... you are still going to get the
good mixed with the bad with them....( Bombers were woeful by the way )
Reckon you would be still feeling ok about the season Cats fans..... found some players...Boak would be great
if you could get him.....Cheaper ready made ruckman would be handy....someone like Minson?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Of course they do. They should have the toughest draw being reigning premiers!
Adelaide were 14th so naturally should have one of the more comfortable draws! Try thinking things through abit and using some logic in the future

So finally we are making some headway here.

Geelong haven't been handed 3x percentage boosters in the first 16 rounds, and still have a smaller average losing margin than the Crows.

Regardless of how many losses Geelong have had in their tougher draw they have not been "twice as bad" as the Crows losses.

 

[TheRoo32]

So finally we are making some headway here.

Geelong haven't been handed 3x percentage boosters in the first 16 rounds, and still have a smaller average losing margin than the Crows.

Regardless of how many losses Geelong have had in their tougher draw they have not been "twice as bad" as the Crows losses.

Yes they have. They have played GWS, Melbourne and the Suns. (Same amount as the Crows to this stage) but limped across the line against the Suns.

And i never said the losses have been twice as bad but they have lost to numerous sides the crows have dealt with comfortably...

 

[Ollie 22]

I am worried about last weeks win being a one off, while the win against the dons on friday was due to the work of some older players like corey finding some form and young guys like smedts having great games, I don't know if the young guys can stand up consistently enough for us to be a real threat.

 

[McDonalds]

I am worried about last weeks win being a one off, while the win against the dons on friday was due to the work of some older players like corey finding some form and young guys like smedts having great games, I don't know if the young guys can stand up consistently enough for us to be a real threat.

I wouldn't sell yourselves short, any team that can consistently beat Hawthorn (Flag Favourite) is in with a massive chance. Never write off Geelong.

 

[Ollie 22]

I wouldn't sell yourselves short, any team that can consistently beat Hawthorn (Flag Favourite) is in with a massive chance. Never write off Geelong.

Yeah it's a good point, we seem to have that mental edge over the hawks at the moment, I would never write them off, it is just hard to see them playing as consistently good football as the have over the past 5 years for the remainder of the season with so many young guys coming through and the old fellas slowing down.

 

[Partridge]

I know we won't, we'll probably struggle to make the 8, i actually fully expect the Hawks to win the 2012 premiership, they are the best side at the moment, i just hope we beat you guys yet again in round 19.

I've seen 3 flags and i'm only 19, i'm very happy.

Some of us are a little older pal, and I can assure you, I'll never be happy.

 

[Partridge]

Oh really?

Geelong vs Hawthorn - Played 149 Geelong 81 Hawthorn 67 Drawn 1

Always been your bitches? Stats don't seem to suggest that.

Facts never enter the equation with morons. Don't forget that.

 

[ok.crows]

I never said Adelaide should be 7th though, did I.

I said you've benefited from having played GWS twice plus GC.

Which is wrong. Every team plays GWS and GCS once, so there is no benefit there to the Crows. If the Crows did not play GWS a second time, then they would have had to play twice against some other team from the lower half of the table last year instead. Possibly Melbourne, WB or Lions say. Given the way the Crows have been playing this season, they very probably would have still won by a similar margin. So there is no benefit there to the Crows either.

When will these facts finally sink in? Are you really this slow?

 

[Partridge]

I don't like saying we're a ten goal better side. You can say that against the absolute worst of the worst - GC, GWS, Melbourne and Dogs - but anyone else, especailly a side with the experience and hate against Hawthorn that they have, can rise up on the day and stun a side much higher on the ladder.

Cats won't win the flag though .

Don't think you're giving away secrets there LP. We won't make top 4 and need to show consistency we haven't show all season to even make the finals. Premiership? Ah, no.

 

[TheRoo32]

Which is wrong. Every team plays GWS and GCS once, so there is no benefit there to the Crows. If the Crows did not play GWS a second time, then they would have had to play twice against some other team from the lower half of the table last year instead. Possibly Melbourne, WB or Lions say. Given the way the Crows have been playing this season, they very probably would have still won by a similar margin. So there is no benefit there to the Crows either.

When will these facts finally sink in? Are you really this slow?

As Partridge stated earlier. Facts never enter the equation with morons...

 

[ok.crows]

I'll just reiterate.

Geelong have the smaller average losing margin, with a much tougher draw.

So what? Geelong have still failed to win twice as often as the Crows. This is what actually counts, you know.