Preview Geelong v Richmond 2020 Grand Final Sat Oct 24 @ Gabba

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CatToTheFuture said:
In close ones not great
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Yeah well from what I've seen of them many have us favoured but it's all around the 50-something % mark so there's not a lot of confidence in that, essentially saying it's a 50/50 match-up. I think most punters would say similar or tip it slightly to one or the other.
 

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Biggy_Boy said:
Yeah well from what I've seen of them many have us favoured but it's all around the 50-something % mark so there's not a lot of confidence in that, essentially saying it's a 50/50 match-up. I think most punters would say similar or tip it slightly to one or the other.
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Yeah, 50/50 is right. Can't imagine a closer contest. We're in better form, they're arguably better in the conditions.
 
geelong_boy said:
I take it as a good sign.

I remember in 2012 he tipped Sydney and then in 2014 he tipped the Hawks based on them both being the best 'teams' in the grand final. While he didn't use that specific point in his article it probably goes to his line of thinking.
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Thanks GB or Duck?

I reckon he’s got plenty wrong but will happy for you to tag me tomorrow night if he’s right.
 
Chinacats said:
Ayres Tipped tigers and dusty norm smith. Doesn’t like Geelong I feel.
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The same Ayres who thought Hamish Simpson would be a better defender than one M.Scarlett? Or was it Cameron Roberts?
 
goyoucatters said:
Some quality analysis here of what we've built our game around in recent times. Debunks a few of the 'eye tests' people sometimes bang on with as well, that say we struggle to rebound the ball and that we always bomb to Toma.

www.abc.net.au

They've been close for years, but can Geelong snag the AFL flag?

After years of strong — but not strong enough — finishes, the Cats have clawed their way into the AFL grand final. Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson analyse their play, and how they might jump that final hurdle.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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Great article.

I found this stat the most surprising/interesting:

ABC said:
The Cats also generate real scoring opportunities from the back half — with over 40 per cent of their goals from chains starting in the back half so far in the finals. By contrast, Richmond have only managed 25 per cent of goals from the same starting spot.
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Not bad considering Geelong's defence is too tall, too slow and poor by foot...

I would have expected the percentages to be the other way around, to be honest - aren't Richmond known for generating scores from defence? I was under the impression it was a big part of their game.
 
Chinacats said:
4 tipped cats and 1 tigers. Bit of a surprise.
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Listen to Kingy on this podcast he outlines his reasoning quite well and also goes over what he sees as the strategies both sides need to get right.

Most interesting party for me was Richmond's change in midfield strategy to generate more clearances and whether that has worked. Plus going over the rapid mid-play structural changes that go on between Stanley and Blitz. He tipped cats, wasn't super sold. Luffy his co- host from champion data also tipped the cats by said if its wet he's switching to Richmond. Forecast is very muggy/dewy

podcasts.apple.com

The Herald Sun Footy Podcast: BONUS EPISODE | Pure Footy - Grand Final on Apple Podcasts

Show The Herald Sun Footy Podcast, Ep BONUS EPISODE | Pure Footy - Grand Final - Oct 19, 2020
podcasts.apple.com
 
Seeds said:
I take faith that all the models are predicting a geelong win.

in the model I trust!
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You mean like cat walk models?
Like Elle McPherson + Naomi Campbell?
 

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I can't help but remember watching the first half in the prelim last year and thought we look and are physically bigger and tigers don't like it. Obviously the second half was a different story, yet there will be good chunks of this game that our physically bigger bodies will intimidate the tigers. They won't want the hard ball when we are crashing in. The key is to capitalize on it when we have the momentum.
 
TheWoodenSlug said:
I would have expected the percentages to be the other way around, to be honest - aren't Richmond known for generating scores from defence? I was under the impression it was a big part of their game.
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They have been known for it, for sure. But aren't we running at something like one score conceded from over 100 rebound 50's by the opposition in this finals series? We appear to have well and truly contained all three finals opponents so far from this score source. No easy ball through the middle of the ground, and teams forced wider, longer and slower on transition has worked wonders for us. And Round 17 was an example of a recent game where this didn't work at all in our favour, meaning that lots of the game was played on the Tigers' terms.

So if our 'finals form' in this area holds up for tomorrow as well (and we mostly win the ball at the source), we are massively in this.
 
Guessing this will be in tomorrows Geelong Addy, but may its way online early:

2020 AFL Grand final: Why a Geelong premiership would be Chris Scott’s finest hour

Geelong Advertiser chief football writer looks at why a Cats premiership would be Chris Scott’s finest hour.

AS the reality set in back in March that COVID-19 was going to affect the 2020 AFL season, in ways we were yet to fully understand, clubs were beginning to accept that the difficult decision to let staff go had to be made.
Long-serving coaches, loyal administrators, marketing, human resources, sales and membership departments were all set to be affected.

Players were told they would need to take significant pay cuts, the AFLPA and the AFL would eventually come to terms with just how that would look, and at every level of the game employees were faced with the prospect of not returning to work.

In the background as all of this unfolded, quietly, and without any fanfare or desire for recognition, Chris Scott approached the hierarchy at Geelong to tell them he would work for free.

It is unclear just how many people’s jobs were saved as a result, but Scott’s sacrifice was made in order to ensure others could continue working and earning a wage.

In every way it was the ultimate team act.

Scott has had his fair share of critics along his journey, but none could argue the effect his actions had.

It sent a message to every single person at the Geelong Football Club: we will get through this season together.

The board, the executive, the staff and the players could not help but be moved by his selfless gesture.

WHEN the Cats players arrived back at GMHBA Stadium in May ahead of the resumption of the season in June it was evident there was a mentality among the players that this could be their year.

They had worked tirelessly away from the club during their enforced lay-off and returned in ripping condition.

If character is defined by what is done when nobody is watching, then the Geelong list showed they had it in spades.

The commitment to give themselves the best opportunity for success was on display and the Cats were buoyed by the hope of being able to play in front of their fans once more.

But to paraphrase the great Scottish bard Rabbie Burns, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

In a move that ultimately saved the season, the AFL told Victorian clubs to pack their bags in early July.

It had been thought initially clubs would be interstate in hubs for three weeks. Then, maybe five. Geelong players have now been away from their homes for nearly 16 weeks.

Most did not see their families for close to two months.

And, while it is true that here in Victoria we have been doing things much harder, those players deserve the opportunity they are presented with tonight.

They have followed the lead of their coach and made sacrifices beyond what could have been reasonably expected of them.

Yes, they have been privileged to continue doing what they love.

And yes, they have been remunerated for their efforts.

But it would be difficult to remember a day or night during the hardest stages of Victoria’s lockdown when the thought of being able to watch a game of footy on the TV did not bring us a collective sense of comfort.

A feeling of normality among the chaos of 2020.

PREMIERSHIPS are not easily won in any year, but it would be difficult to think of a season where more has been given off the field by those who so brilliantly inspire us on it.

From isolating away from the rest of the community earlier in the season, to being subjected to regular coronavirus testing, to quarantining and being away from family for extended periods of time, to taking the hit in the hip pocket to keep the game going.

The players deserve plenty of credit for what they have endured.

But there are many others who are equally worthy of praise.

Club staff, including doctors, physios, trainers, welfare officers and media managers have all been on the road since July.

It has been an exhausting season, but there has not been a single complaint.

Everybody has been up for the challenge.

And driving and motivating them all has been the coaches, led by Scott, who set the ball rolling for a year of sacrifice back in March.

THERE are some who question what impact Scott had on his first premiership in 2011, given the fact Geelong had won two flags in the previous four seasons and had a list the envy of many.

But nobody could possibly deny the influence he has had on this group this year.

In the 1990s, the Cats were often accused of placing the interests of the individual above the greater good of the team.

It cost them shared glory as certain players were free to do as they chose.

But tonight, as Geelong embarks on its first grand final since that famous victory over Collingwood nine years ago, may ultimately prove to be Scott’s finest hour.

The culmination of a year in which the club has been put before the individual.

And as supporters we can be grateful for having the chance, albeit from afar, to be witness to that history unfolding.
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Adding tweet cause bearded Scott is a good look



LACHIE YOUNG, Chief football writer, Geelong Advertiser

www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

Geelong Advertiser

No Cookies
www.geelongadvertiser.com.au www.geelongadvertiser.com.au
 
Mad_Hatter said:
We have 3 barometers IMO that tell me if we will win or not.

1. Rohan gets on the scoreboard OR gets very involved with scoring chains.

2. Mitch Duncan gets a decent amount of the ball and some in space/used well.

3. Our defenders take intercept marks.

When we are on and we have the game on our terms those 3 are right at the forefront, when we don't, when our system starts to fail and we lose that momentum those 3 above tend to be the ones that are first to be lost.
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Brilliant Post
 
God Mode said:
Plough brought up an interesting statistic on SEN just before. He pointed out that the Tigers % in finals for 2017,19 and 20 were as follows

2017 - 180%
2019 - 150%
2020 - 113%

Vs Geelongs
2020 - 169%

I liked the sound of that, but if any team have another gear to go to its Richmond.
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How often do you hear that about teams, but they never actually get there because their opponent won't let them.
 
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