Rumour GFC 2023 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt1

[cats_09]

As we are now getting into the season and we are starting to get a bit more serious with discussion, seems a suitable time to post the following as it's repeatedly shown itself to be a value reference tool in trade & draft discussion

And as per normal, thanks to Lore for putting this together - always a fantastic reference tool



And yes this post is now stickied - makes it easy to keep track of (can easily reverse this though if needed)

 

[dazbroncos]

So im bored and there is no news...

thus:

2023 Senior list changes -
Locks to call it IMO or be told:
Zac Touhy
Isaac Smith
Gary Rohan

Maybes;
Rhys Stanley
Johnathon Ceglar
Esava Rategolea
Sam Menegola
Tom Hawkins

Thats 3 for sure IMO and up to 8 if all the maybe bounce out - its unlikely they'd all go.

But you'd imagine it will give us some TPP and SC space too. We'd have some we really need to re-sign as well so that cash will be redeployed but id imagine we could chase a FA if someone wanted to be here.

GO Catters

 

[cats_09]

So im bored and there is no news...

thus:

2023 Senior list changes -
Locks to call it IMO or be told:
Zac Touhy
Isaac Smith
Gary Rohan

Maybes;
Rhys Stanley
Johnathon Ceglar
Esava Rategolea
Sam Menegola
Tom Hawkins

Thats 3 for sure IMO and up to 8 if all the maybe bounce out - its unlikely they'd all go.

But you'd imagine it will give us some TPP and SC space too. We'd have some we really need to re-sign as well so that cash will be redeployed but id imagine we could chase a FA if someone wanted to be here.

GO Catters

Hard to disagree with your "locks", and thinking it may not be an easy decision for 1 or 2 of them who may want to go on but that may not be in the best plans for the club

From your "Maybes":

• I see only 1 of Stanley & Ceglar being re-signed with the other calling time on their career, with the idea being to keep an experienced ruck while we transition to the next generation of talls
• I can see both Ratugolea & Menegola wearing new colours in 2024
• Hawkins I think goes again

 

[CHAWKTS]

Hard to disagree with your "locks", and thinking it may not be an easy decision for 1 or 2 of them who may want to go on but that may not be in the best plans for the club

From your "Maybes":

• I see only 1 of Stanley & Ceglar being re-signed with the other calling time on their career, with the idea being to keep an experienced ruck while we transition to the next generation of talls
• I can see both Ratugolea & Menegola wearing new colours in 2024
• Hawkins I think goes again

Agree with both posts. Even in your cut down version that is 6 changes and I suspect a couple of the “outer fringe” players won’t get another contract (not sure who yet).

So I can see 8-10 changes again. List is being reshaped pretty rapidly. And at same time i am fairly confident that it will be done whilst remaining competitive (need most of those fringe players to have great years in 2023 as a platform for 2024)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So im bored and there is no news...

thus:

2023 Senior list changes -
Locks to call it IMO or be told:
Zac Touhy
Isaac Smith
Gary Rohan

Maybes;
Rhys Stanley
Johnathon Ceglar
Esava Rategolea
Sam Menegola
Tom Hawkins

Thats 3 for sure IMO and up to 8 if all the maybe bounce out - its unlikely they'd all go.

But you'd imagine it will give us some TPP and SC space too. We'd have some we really need to re-sign as well so that cash will be redeployed but id imagine we could chase a FA if someone wanted to be here.

GO Catters

Cegs is certain for me unless stanley retires and we cant get another ruck in to support conway.
I agree smith tuohy and rohan are likely although all in good form.
Hawk could go too but it will be his call.
If sav isnt best 22 he will ask for a trade.
Ditto menegola if he isnt in the 22 will walk as FA.
I agree we will have cap room to be aggressive.

 

[Hinkley29]

100%

Imagine if they retired 5 after. Polly or after senior . I don't mind a little breathing space given out of respect for a quality player but all the numbers were someone else's before and will be after any name on our list. if we retired every number after 300 games for example we would not no have Stewart in 44.

You could end up like the Yankees where all single figure numbers have been retired and your best player ends up wearing 99. yikes

 

[petrolium]

I think Tuohy and Isaac have 2 years left. Likely Rohan’s last season. Ceglar will probably get another 1 year deal as we nurture Conway. Esava and Menegola likely departures via trade/FA. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hawkins retires at the end of this coming season.

 

[jim boy]

Touhy I can see going around again - he certainly wants to.
I think Isaac might struggle to make the end of the season - he is that sort of player that a small drop off has an outsized effect on his performance - and he made a lot of noise last year about how much more difficult it is to get up on a weekly basis.
I would put Stanley in as a lock at finishing at the end of the year.
Cant see Sav and Menegola being around beyond this year.
Cooper Whyte, Shannon Neale, Sam Simpson and Flynn Kroeger all need break-out years if we want to see them in the hoops in 2024

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think Tuohy and Isaac have 2 years left. Likely Rohan’s last season. Ceglar will probably get another 1 year deal as we nurture Conway. Esava and Menegola likely departures via trade/FA. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hawkins retires at the end of this coming season.

I could be over interpreting isaacs comments post season about him asking the club for only one year but i think he might pull the pin himself end 2023 although he is playing very well. I just think his body and his family might be why he steps away and i reckon stanley will be similar next year i can see him being happy to retire to his farm.
Ceglar i like but he will be 33 next year and is basically just a backup ruck-if we can find a better backup ruck in next years trade period (wont be hard given the ruck merry go round) then he will go if we cant and stanley retires then he might stay. Agree re menegola much as he is one of my favourites.

Tuohy is playing well but we also have very good depth and we wont want to hold guys like holmes bruhn henry bowes clark (and even neale and conway although conway will have an easier time because of our lack of ruck alternatives) back too much so if guys like tuohy play on in 2024 they might have to be content with being vfl depth as higgins and dahl were this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Touhy I can see going around again - he certainly wants to.
I think Isaac might struggle to make the end of the season - he is that sort of player that a small drop off has an outsized effect on his performance - and he made a lot of noise last year about how much more difficult it is to get up on a weekly basis.
I would put Stanley in as a lock at finishing at the end of the year.
Cant see Sav and Menegola being around beyond this year.
Cooper Whyte, Shannon Neale, Sam Simpson and Flynn Kroeger all need break-out years if we want to see them in the hoops in 2024

Agree on isaac and stanley and i wouldnt be surprised if hawk finds it harder without joel than anyone and retires next year although he is playing well enough to stay on.
Menegola will find his 2020 form and become best 22 again or go elsewhere via FA.
Sav is a trade again unless a kpd does an acl.
Simpson has had 6 years so if he doesnt become best 22 this year its gone.
Whyte willis kroeger knevitt etc i think will be given more time they are all less than 2 years in and given we only have 1 pick in the first 5 rounds next year i dont see the point in punting them to use pick 100.
Neale is a priority sign given the likely hawk and sav departures. I worry freo and wce will come hard for neale this year.

 

[Kitcat]

Agree on isaac and stanley and i wouldnt be surprised if hawk finds it harder without joel than anyone and retires next year although he is playing well enough to stay on.
Menegola will find his 2020 form and become best 22 again or go elsewhere via FA.
Sav is a trade again unless a kpd does an acl.
Simpson has had 6 years so if he doesnt become best 22 this year its gone.
Whyte willis kroeger knevitt etc i think will be given more time they are all less than 2 years in and given we only have 1 pick in the first 5 rounds next year i dont see the point in punting them to use pick 100.
Neale is a priority sign given the likely hawk and sav departures. I worry freo and wce will come hard for neale this year.

Simpson won’t need to be best 22 next year. He will need to show he can be best 22 in the following year after the expected retirements.
There have been a lot of posts saying Stanley is likely to retire after next season. Is there a solid reason for this? He is still moving well.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Simpson won’t need to be best 22 next year. He will need to show he can be best 22 in the following year after the expected retirements.
There have been a lot of posts saying Stanley is likely to retire after next season. Is there a solid reason for this? He is still moving well.

Look how likely do you think zuthrie would have been kept if he hadnt have become best 22 (which he now is) i suggest he would have been delisted this year and most of the board said the same. Same think just happened to narkle after 6 seasons (simpson was the same draft as them). Usually if a player isnt best 22 after 6years he gets delisted (backup rucks the exception) so simpson will be gone in 12months if he isnt.

On rhys nothing specific but like all our over 30s its a year to year proposition (outside guys with long term deals eg duncan danger guthrie) as to whether they and the club want to keep going. Its entirely possible stanley ceglar and sav all go end 2023 which means our 2024 rucks would be just conway and we would probably trade/rookie a mature ruck as backup for him. Obviously need to keep neale too.

 

[bombersboy]

So im bored and there is no news...

thus:

2023 Senior list changes -
Locks to call it IMO or be told:
Zac Touhy
Isaac Smith
Gary Rohan

Maybes;
Rhys Stanley
Johnathon Ceglar
Esava Rategolea
Sam Menegola
Tom Hawkins

Thats 3 for sure IMO and up to 8 if all the maybe bounce out - its unlikely they'd all go.

But you'd imagine it will give us some TPP and SC space too. We'd have some we really need to re-sign as well so that cash will be redeployed but id imagine we could chase a FA if someone wanted to be here.

GO Catters

I will wait and see on your locks
Touhy has not lost anything if he holds up could easily see him going nother year
Smith still has his running power and has just won a Norm Smith. I don't see anyone jumping up to take his place.
Rohan has not lost any speed or ability to jump and make a contest with his size. I do not see a ready replacement for the role he plays. I think he goes on unless his body packs up.

 

[MacStradbroke]

I will wait and see on your locks
Touhy has not lost anything if he holds up could easily see him going nother year
Smith still has his running power and has just won a Norm Smith. I don't see anyone jumping up to take his place.
Rohan has not lost any speed or ability to jump and make a contest with his size. I do not see a ready replacement for the role he plays. I think he goes on unless his body packs up.

Didn’t Holmes already replace him on the wing?

 

[cats_09]

Didn’t Holmes already replace him on the wing?

Yep

Over the second half of the season, Smith seemed to be playing more from the half-forward line and I'm not sure he was really impacting matches at the level we've seen him able to do when he's playing more on the ball

And while it was disappointing and frustrating for Holmes that he was unavailable for the grand final, Smith was the ideal replacement to slot into the vacant wing spot - if he's back to playing predominately from the half forward spot in 2023, then I'd suggest he's spot in the team may not be guaranteed as we get deeper into the season unless he finds a way to have more of a consistent impact on matches

 

[CHAWKTS]

Yep

Over the second half of the season, Smith seemed to be playing more from the half-forward line and I'm not sure he was really impacting matches at the level we've seen him able to do when he's playing more on the ball

And while it was disappointing and frustrating for Holmes that he was unavailable for the grand final, Smith was the ideal replacement to slot into the vacant wing spot - if he's back to playing predominately from the half forward spot in 2023, then I'd suggest he's spot in the team may not be guaranteed as we get deeper into the season unless he finds a way to have more of a consistent impact on matches

Agree about Smith - he could drop off given I suspect they will not put him back to the wing (despite his best game of the year in GF). They have too many options of our future to get experience running on the wing? But then I thought smith would drop off in 2022!

They could try Holmes more through the (non-wing) midfield too this year.

 

[Kitcat]

Look how likely do you think zuthrie would have been kept if he hadnt have become best 22 (which he now is) i suggest he would have been delisted this year and most of the board said the same. Same think just happened to narkle after 6 seasons (simpson was the same draft as them). Usually if a player isnt best 22 after 6years he gets delisted (backup rucks the exception) so simpson will be gone in 12months if he isnt.

On rhys nothing specific but like all our over 30s its a year to year proposition (outside guys with long term deals eg duncan danger guthrie) as to whether they and the club want to keep going. Its entirely possible stanley ceglar and sav all go end 2023 which means our 2024 rucks would be just conway and we would probably trade/rookie a mature ruck as backup for him. Obviously need to keep neale too.

I don’t think Zuthrie would have been delisted. As I posted in his defence early this year, why get rid of a young backup player who was a great team player.
I never thought he would reach the heights he did this season, but I took exception to him being called a list clogger.
I don’t agree there is necessarily a formula that you are out after 6 years if not in the best 22. Narkle doesn’t support your point as he had opportunities and wasn’t good enough.
Simpson is now 24 and a half. With our still ageing list, greatly improved by this draft/trade though, Simpson could become a regular from 2024 on after all the retirements and play for years.
Why get rid of him and replace him with a gamble on a draft pick?
In 2020, he was way ahead of Zuthrie and look how good he has turned out to be.
Simpson seems like a good bloke as well which is important for the club.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I don’t think Zuthrie would have been delisted. As I posted in his defence early this year, why get rid of a young backup player who was a great team player.
I never thought he would reach the heights he did this season, but I took exception to him being called a list clogger.
I don’t agree there is necessarily a formula that you are out after 6 years if not in the best 22. Narkle doesn’t support your point as he had opportunities and wasn’t good enough.
Simpson is now 24 and a half. With our still ageing list, greatly improved by this draft/trade though, Simpson could become a regular from 2024 on after all the retirements and play for years.
Why get rid of him and replace him with a gamble on a draft pick?
In 2020, he was way ahead of Zuthrie and look how good he has turned out to be.
Simpson seems like a good bloke as well which is important for the club.

The thing that concerns me with Simpson is he's slow and his foot skills are ordinary.

 

[Sky]

Maybe I don’t pay close attention to detail during games but I just saw a Hawks supporter say Holmes will be a top ten player in the comp in two years time.

Obviously he’s best 22 and unlucky to have missed the grand final but is he really that good? Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2022 edition

 

[cats_09]

Maybe I don’t pay close attention to detail during games but I just saw a Hawks supporter say Holmes will be a top ten player in the comp in two years time.

Obviously he’s best 22 and unlucky to have missed the grand final but is he really that good? Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2022 edition

He was the highest rated wing in the league across the last 10 or so weeks of the season - you don't reach those levels if you're no good

 

[Lana]

I don’t think Zuthrie would have been delisted. As I posted in his defence early this year, why get rid of a young backup player who was a great team player.
I never thought he would reach the heights he did this season, but I took exception to him being called a list clogger.
I don’t agree there is necessarily a formula that you are out after 6 years if not in the best 22. Narkle doesn’t support your point as he had opportunities and wasn’t good enough.
Simpson is now 24 and a half. With our still ageing list, greatly improved by this draft/trade though, Simpson could become a regular from 2024 on after all the retirements and play for years.
Why get rid of him and replace him with a gamble on a draft pick?
In 2020, he was way ahead of Zuthrie and look how good he has turned out to be.
Simpson seems like a good bloke as well which is important for the club.

The difference between the Z.Guthrie and Simpson is simply that Simpson has barely played any football at any level. Z.Guthrie has always had a level of progression. At this stage Simpsons expected games would be well below 10 games. Imo I think we've kept him around to provide so leadership at VFL level more than anything at AFL level. I can't imagine he is on more than a base level wage.

 

[Lana]

He was the highest rated wing in the league across the last 10 or so weeks of the season - you don't reach those levels if you're no good

Reputation wise, Wingman has to be the most invisible position, half the teams don't even run with dedicated wingman to their huge loss. Holmes is already elite

 

[cats_09]

Reputation wise, Wingman has to be the most invisible position, half the teams don't even run with dedicated wingman to their huge loss. Holmes is already elite

And when teams make the effort to actually utilise that role & select the right players in that position, we see the positive impact it has - with a few teams showing quality players in that role, I'm thinking other teams will start to invest more into finding the right wing/s for them

 

[Kitcat]

The difference between the Z.Guthrie and Simpson is simply that Simpson has barely played any football at any level. Z.Guthrie has always had a level of progression. At this stage Simpsons expected games would be well below 10 games. Imo I think we've kept him around to provide so leadership at VFL level more than anything at AFL level. I can't imagine he is on more than a base level wage.

You seem to have forgotten that in 2020 Simpson played 9 games compared to Zuthrie’s 3 games, including best 22 in three final’s including the Grand Final.
Since then concussion and injuries have limited his opportunities.

 

[calder_daddy]

The thing that concerns me with Simpson is he's slow and his foot skills are ordinary.

Speed isn’t everything when you have evasiveness, his kicking is not ordinary also
Has a weird action though

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I don’t think Zuthrie would have been delisted. As I posted in his defence early this year, why get rid of a young backup player who was a great team player.
I never thought he would reach the heights he did this season, but I took exception to him being called a list clogger.
I don’t agree there is necessarily a formula that you are out after 6 years if not in the best 22. Narkle doesn’t support your point as he had opportunities and wasn’t good enough.
Simpson is now 24 and a half. With our still ageing list, greatly improved by this draft/trade though, Simpson could become a regular from 2024 on after all the retirements and play for years.
Why get rid of him and replace him with a gamble on a draft pick?
In 2020, he was way ahead of Zuthrie and look how good he has turned out to be.
Simpson seems like a good bloke as well which is important for the club.

I dont ever think zuthrie was a list clogger as far as the meaning of the word as such but i do think he would have been delisted. I could roll out for you 15-20 names we have drafted in the last 10 years who werent best 22 after 5 years and basically all of them were either delisted or traded out. You dont tend to survive more than 5 years as a non best 22 player unless youre a specific key postion backup (as clubs carry less of them on a list). Thats no criticism of simpson as i rate him and i agree the talent is there but i stand by what i said that if he doesnt become best 22 next year (which hes capable of he did it 2 years ago) he will be gone. In my view the only thing that would save him otherwise would be an absolute stack of retirements (ie 6 or more) and no trades and FAs in and i dont think either of those things are likely.