Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[cats_09]

He didn’t run dead.

Carlton chose not to play him when it was clear that he wasn’t part of their future plans.

Big difference

Think you'll find it was the other way around

It was clear that Henderson didn't see Carlton as part of his future plans - he let them know that he'd be looking for a trade at season's end and in return they dropped him from the seniors even though he had made himself available to play

Why would you then go out there & push yourself each week when there's going to be zero return for doing so - dare say that by the time he informed Carlton he'd be looking for a trade that he would have known where his next home would be, and he did look a much happier player once he got his new colours

 

[D BRIDGE]

Band 1 would also be a disaster.

For context, would you trade Stengle straight up for Riley Sanders? Or nick Watson? Or COS? I wouldn’t.

I don't think Band 1 would be a disaster, especially if we flame out for the rest of the year, which is possible.

If given the option to straight swap Stengle for Sanders, I'd think about it for a good few minutes and then happily pull the trigger on that trade... Not that we are likely to get a pick that will land a Sanders-level junior (he went #4).

Band 2 would absolutely suck and would be a pick in the early 20's... Not much value there.

 

[foxdog50]

So question? If we were to finish between 5th-8th and Stengle leaves, what would band 1 or 2 be ( in a approx draft pick?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Band 1 would also be a disaster.

For context, would you trade Stengle straight up for Riley Sanders? Or nick Watson? Or COS? I wouldn’t.

I'd trade him for Sanders and probably COS straight up. The potential upside matters here. I think we can develop another small forward to be an ok replacement for Stengle. But the chance you get a top 20 player in the comp with Sanders or COS is what tips the scale for me. Stengle as a pure small forward doesn't have that upside.

 

[Hinkley29]

I don't think Band 1 would be a disaster, especially if we flame out for the rest of the year, which is possible.

If given the option to straight swap Stengle for Sanders, I'd think about it for a good few minutes and then happily pull the trigger on that trade... Not that we are likely to get a pick that will land a Sanders-level junior (he went #4).

Band 2 would absolutely suck and would be a pick in the early 20's... Not much value there.

I'd trade him for Sanders and probably COS straight up. The potential upside matters here. I think we can develop another small forward to be an ok replacement for Stengle. But the chance you get a top 20 player in the comp with Sanders or COS is what tips the scale for me. Stengle as a pure small forward doesn't have that upside.

Sanders might be great. In 3 or 4 years after a number of seasons of development, then he might be a top 20 player in the comp. Or he might just be decent.

Stengle is great right now. In his prime right now. No waiting, no list clogging whilst he is developing, no “hoping that he will reach his potential”. He is a top 20 player right now. Low risk.

Why would we be happy to swap the sure thing for the hope that another player might be as good as the sure thing in 4 years time?

Re: the ease of replacing small forwards. I completely disagree. How many players are there that can play the Stengle role? I am not talking about the seagull Jack Ginnivan role, I am talking about the true 1on1 small forward who is also a deadly finisher and super creative. I reckon there is Stengle, Toby Greene (if he plays at the level he was at 2 years ago, not 2024 Toby Greene) and ……..????? Am I missing anyone?

A decent midfielder (and that is what Bailey smith might be if he gets over his serious injury) is far easier to find than what Stengle does. Decent midfielders by their nature are more plentiful, and if you are prepared to pay the cost you can get them most offseasons. You need more of them, but they are also easier to come across.

 

[fpm84]

Re: the ease of replacing small forwards. I completely disagree. How many players are there that can play the Stengle role? I am not talking about the seagull Jack Ginnivan role, I am talking about the true 1on1 small forward who is also a deadly finisher and super creative. I reckon there is Stengle, Toby Greene (if he plays at the level he was at 2 years ago, not 2024 Toby Greene) and ……..????? Am I missing anyone?

At their peaks, Charlie Cameron and Jamie Elliott fit this bill but neither is at their peak right now.

I rate Stengle higher than Papley, Higgins, Pickett etc.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Sanders might be great. In 3 or 4 years after a number of seasons of development, then he might be a top 20 player in the comp. Or he might just be decent.

Stengle is great right now. In his prime right now. No waiting, no list clogging whilst he is developing, no “hoping that he will reach his potential”. He is a top 20 player right now. Low risk.

Why would we be happy to swap the sure thing for the hope that another player might be as good as the sure thing in 4 years time?

Re: the ease of replacing small forwards. I completely disagree. How many players are there that can play the Stengle role? I am not talking about the seagull Jack Ginnivan role, I am talking about the true 1on1 small forward who is also a deadly finisher and super creative. I reckon there is Stengle, Toby Greene (if he plays at the level he was at 2 years ago, not 2024 Toby Greene) and ……..????? Am I missing anyone?

A decent midfielder (and that is what Bailey smith might be if he gets over his serious injury) is far easier to find than what Stengle does. Decent midfielders by their nature are more plentiful, and if you are prepared to pay the cost you can get them most offseasons. You need more of them, but they are also easier to come across.

Sorry but Stengle isn't anywhere near a top 20 player in the comp. He's 50-100 for me.

Every team has 2-3 players at least more impactful than Stengle (for us that's Cameron and Stewart and at their best guys like Danger, Guthrie and Blicavs. Holmes is likely at that point too). This weekend we play Carlton and there's no way he's as valuable as Curnow, Weitering, Cripps or Walsh. Absolutely no way.

A gun small forward yes. Top 20 in the comp there's no way in the world.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Sanders might be great. In 3 or 4 years after a number of seasons of development, then he might be a top 20 player in the comp. Or he might just be decent.

Stengle is great right now. In his prime right now. No waiting, no list clogging whilst he is developing, no “hoping that he will reach his potential”. He is a top 20 player right now. Low risk.

Why would we be happy to swap the sure thing for the hope that another player might be as good as the sure thing in 4 years time?

I'm not saying "we" would be happy to swap... I'm saying "I" would be.

Reasons (and this is just my logic):


Stengle is over 6 years older than Sanders.

Mid v Forward pocket... I'd go the mid if both had the same amount of talent.

I'd expect Sanders to start hitting his straps in his third year as a 21 year old and then still have potentially 10+ years of very good footy ahead of him.

I think we/Geelong are in a transition period and won't be winning the flag in the next few years... so having a prime Stengle for the next couple of years doesn't really matter to me.

I think it's tough (if not impossible) for a team to win flags without a strong midfield and Sanders could form a powerful midfield core group for a long time with guys like Holmes, Clark, Bruhn, Dempsey + possibly Smith... that midfield is set for a looooong time.

We have a decent small forward in Mannagh waiting to play... not that he is an equal replacement for Stengle, but if he doesn't play then we wasted a pick on him.

Stengle might want to go so getting Sanders for a guy that wants to go would be huge (not that it's possible).

In the end, I want Stengle to stay... but if offered Sanders for him (though it'll never happen) I'd change my tune pretty fast... That's just my opinion... Sanders might be an ok player whilst Stengle could continue being A-grade for 6+ more years.

Time will tell, this stuff is all hypothetical, we ain't getting our hands on Sanders.

 

[gogeelongcats]

Sorry but Stengle isn't anywhere near a top 20 player in the comp. He's 50-100 for me.

Every team has 2-3 players at least more impactful than Stengle (for us that's Cameron and Stewart and at their best guys like Danger, Guthrie and Blicavs. Holmes is likely at that point too). This weekend we play Carlton and there's no way he's as valuable as Curnow, Weitering, Cripps or Walsh. Absolutely no way.

A gun small forward yes. Top 20 in the comp there's no way in the world.

Holmes and Stengle are the best two players in our team so far this year.

Why people do not rate him and think he is easily replaced is beyond me.

If he were to leave, and I hope not, to get a second-round pick would be very disappointing.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So question? If we were to finish between 5th-8th and Stengle leaves, what would band 1 or 2 be ( in a approx draft pick?

Band 1 is immediately after our r1 (ie if we are 8th its p12). Band 2 is end r1 ie p19.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Holmes and Stengle are the best two players in our team so far this year.

Why people do not rate him and think he is easily replaced is beyond me.

If he were to leave, and I hope not, to get a second-round pick would be very disappointing.

Everybody rates him and nobody thinks he is easily replaced. Nobody has suggested the preference is to give him up for a mid first rounder let alone a second rounder.

But he's also nowhere near a top 20 player in the comp. Saying that isn't underrating him.

If we had to leave out one of Stengle, Stewart and Cameron this week we would choose Stengle every time despite the others being in worse form. The best roaming key forwards and intercept defenders are just much more valuable than the best small forwards because they get more chances to impact games.

Also Cameron has received double the number of coaches votes and received votes in more games than Stengle this year. I think he'd be higher in our B&F than Stengle but not certain.

 

[Hinkley29]

Sorry but Stengle isn't anywhere near a top 20 player in the comp. He's 50-100 for me.

Every team has 2-3 players at least more impactful than Stengle (for us that's Cameron and Stewart and at their best guys like Danger, Guthrie and Blicavs. Holmes is likely at that point too). This weekend we play Carlton and there's no way he's as valuable as Curnow, Weitering, Cripps or Walsh. Absolutely no way.

A gun small forward yes. Top 20 in the comp there's no way in the world.

And yet, what is the one thing that Carlton need to put them over the top as a contender? The one thing that would have people take them seriously as a premiership aspirant? The one thing that they have been unable to develop, unable to acquire because they are so hard to find?

Answer - A truly elite 1on1 small forward to complement Curnow and Mackay.

But apparently those guys are easy to find and even easier to replace….

 

[Hinkley29]

At their peaks, Charlie Cameron and Jamie Elliott fit this bill but neither is at their peak right now.

I rate Stengle higher than Papley, Higgins, Pickett etc.

These players are rare as hens teeth.

But apparently a decent rotation midfielder is more valuable….

 

[Footy Smarts]

And yet, what is the one thing that Carlton need to put them over the top as a contender? The one thing that would have people take them seriously as a premiership aspirant? The one thing that they have been unable to develop, unable to acquire because they are so hard to find?

Answer - A truly elite 1on1 small forward to complement Curnow and Mackay.

But apparently those goes are easy to find and even easier to replace….

Lol you're really building that strawman hard aren't you!

Nobody said he's easy to replace or worthless. He's an excellent player who should be paid well. But he's not a top 20 player in the comp and we shouldn't blow up our cap for him (or anyone).

To be honest Carlton developing a defensive edge to their midfield would be more important. They're not struggling to score.

 

[Hinkley29]

Lol you're really building that strawman hard aren't you!

Nobody said he's easy to replace or worthless. He's an excellent player who should be paid well. But he's not a top 20 player in the comp and we shouldn't blow up our cap for him (or anyone).

To be honest Carlton developing a defensive edge to their midfield would be more important. They're not struggling to score.

Ok - so what would you be prepared to pay Stengle for the next 5 years? And what would you be prepared to pay Smith for the same period?

 

[Pollywaffle]

Are you seriously saying that a player will “run dead” because he has committed to another team whilst under contract?

That would be the biggest scandal the league has ever seen.

Doubt if they’d run dead’ but maybe less likely to do 1 percenters or put the body on the line. maybe a little less frenetic in the chase.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

And yet, what is the one thing that Carlton need to put them over the top as a contender? The one thing that would have people take them seriously as a premiership aspirant? The one thing that they have been unable to develop, unable to acquire because they are so hard to find?

Answer - A truly elite 1on1 small forward to complement Curnow and Mackay.

But apparently those guys are easy to find and even easier to replace….

Thats because carlton dont have any decent small forwards. We do.

 

[foxdog50]

Band 1 is immediately after our r1 (ie if we are 8th its p12). Band 2 is end r1 ie p19.

Much appreciated

 

[Footy Smarts]

Ok - so what would you be prepared to pay Stengle for the next 5 years? And what would you be prepared to pay Smith for the same period?

The rumour of 4x $700k for Stengle seems about right. I'm happy with him as a 5th-7th best paid player but more than that seems excessive.

I've said before the contract size for Smith worries me. I'd be happy to give up any first rounder outside the top 10 for him but much more than 4x $700k and I'd pass on him too. I don't see how we can expect Holmes, Miers, Zuthrie (and Stengle) to take unders and then offer Smith $1m per year.

 

[bombersboy]

Sorry but Stengle isn't anywhere near a top 20 player in the comp. He's 50-100 for me.

Every team has 2-3 players at least more impactful than Stengle (for us that's Cameron and Stewart and at their best guys like Danger, Guthrie and Blicavs. Holmes is likely at that point too). This weekend we play Carlton and there's no way he's as valuable as Curnow, Weitering, Cripps or Walsh. Absolutely no way.

A gun small forward yes. Top 20 in the comp there's no way in the world.

Depends if you are going to play them in position or not. If you look at the All Australian side for this year it is between Stengle and Bobbie Hill for the small forward role in my view with Hill ahead at the moment.

 

[bombersboy]

On current form, Hill isn't even in the conversation.

Stengle, Moore, Rankine, & Papley are all ahead IMO.

They'll pick a midfielder in the forwardline before they pick Hill with what he's dished up if they don't take those guys.

Good enough player, but he's not All Australian calibre on what we've seen.

I would have Stengle well ahead of that group

 

[Johanpetro]

I would have Stengle well ahead of that group

Haven’t watched many Adelaide games im guessing? Rankine 18.5 touches 2 goals and 3.7 tackles vs Stengle 13.9 touches 2.1 goals 1.9 tackles.

He’s in some very good form, above Stengle pretty comfortably and I love Tyson

 

[moond0g]

Haven’t watched many Adelaide games im guessing? Rankine 18.5 touches 2 goals and 3.7 tackles vs Stengle 13.9 touches 2.1 goals 1.9 tackles.

He’s in some very good form, above Stengle pretty comfortably and I love Tyson

Stengle might be above him in AA contention just because rankine has been injured. But otherwise agree that rankine has been great this year.

 

[moond0g]

I'd trade him for Sanders and probably COS straight up. The potential upside matters here. I think we can develop another small forward to be an ok replacement for Stengle. But the chance you get a top 20 player in the comp with Sanders or COS is what tips the scale for me. Stengle as a pure small forward doesn't have that upside.

There’s a chance any junior can become a top 20 player in the comp, but most won’t. On average Stengle will outperform a future first round pick, and you always play the percentages.

People overate the value of draft picks all the time.

 

[bombersboy]

Haven’t watched many Adelaide games im guessing? Rankine 18.5 touches 2 goals and 3.7 tackles vs Stengle 13.9 touches 2.1 goals 1.9 tackles.

He’s in some very good form, above Stengle pretty comfortably and I love Tyson

Hasn't Rankine been playing a fair bit of footy on ball?