Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[BORIS332]

Why is everyone so keen on Cadman? Does anyone actually think he will be a star, or are we just rating him because he was pick 1 in the draft? Not many other clubs would have had him at pick 1 in the 2022 draft, and his 2023 season numbers were awful. I understand KPFs take a lot longer, but even by those standards he was bad.

 

[BORIS332]

Hey here's something I haven't seen in a while. A starting 18 all 26 and under with no debuts

B Emerson Jeka Sam De Koning Jack Bowes
HB Zach Guthrie Connor O’Sullivan Jack Henry
C Max Holmes Tanner Bruhn Mitch Knevitt
HF Brad Close Ollie Henry Ted Clohesy
F Tyson Stengle Shannon Neale Ollie Dempsey
Fol Toby Conway Jhye Clark Brandon Parfitt

With no debuts? When did O'Sullivan debut?

 

[00VicWard001]

It makes sense, and because the spine is such a crucial area of the ground, it fast tracks where we're going immensely.

In a hypothetical world, in 12 months if we have:

SDK - Key Defender
J Henry - Medium Defender
COS - Key Defender
Conway - Ruck
Edwards - Ruck/Forward
Neale - Key Forward
Henry - Medium Forward
Cadman - Key Forward

That's genuinely one of the best young core spines in the game, especially seeing as there's a huge power vacuum right now in the league with key position talent.

If guys like Sav, Petty, Chol, BZT, Sweet, Soldo and so on are being seen as the best available, then we're a long way in front with what we'd already have on our list for 10-15 years to come.

That's with Jezza & Stewart still around for a few years yet as well.

It allows us to go big in 2026-27 with someone like Smith as a free agent to finish off the midfield, which is a much easier area of the ground to develop anyway as quality mids are typically pretty easy to draft or trade in.

Key position talent is much harder to find, and you tend to hold onto them for a long time once you've got them (Hence the lack of supply at the moment)

We would have already drafted all of ours with pretty high picks (Outside of Cadman, who was the highest you can be), and all things being equal, would be set for a very long time.

The best thing about this post is the view to the long term. It requires patience and strategic vision. Well thought out.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Why is everyone so keen on Cadman? Does anyone actually think he will be a star, or are we just rating him because he was pick 1 in the draft? Not many other clubs would have had him at pick 1 in the 2022 draft, and his 2023 season numbers were awful. I understand KPFs take a lot longer, but even by those standards he was bad.

View attachment 1863287

U took the words out of my mouth.
Very very average so far…

 

[moond0g]

It makes sense, and because the spine is such a crucial area of the ground, it fast tracks where we're going immensely.

In a hypothetical world, in 12 months if we have:

SDK - Key Defender
J Henry - Medium Defender
COS - Key Defender
Conway - Ruck
Edwards - Ruck/Forward
Neale - Key Forward
Henry - Medium Forward
Cadman - Key Forward

That's genuinely one of the best young core spines in the game, especially seeing as there's a huge power vacuum right now in the league with key position talent.

If guys like Sav, Petty, Chol, BZT, Sweet, Soldo and so on are being seen as the best available, then we're a long way in front with what we'd already have on our list for 10-15 years to come.

That's with Jezza & Stewart still around for a few years yet as well.

It allows us to go big in 2026-27 with someone like Smith as a free agent to finish off the midfield, which is a much easier area of the ground to develop anyway as quality mids are typically pretty easy to draft or trade in.

Key position talent is much harder to find, and you tend to hold onto them for a long time once you've got them (Hence the lack of supply at the moment)

We would have already drafted all of ours with pretty high picks (Outside of Cadman, who was the highest you can be), and all things being equal, would be set for a very long time.

I admire your optimism.

But of the 8 players you've listed
1 - doesn't even play for us.
2 - have yet to play a single match
2 - have played a combined 6 matches
That leaves 3 (SDK, JHenry, OHenry), who I agree are all above average prospects.

But if you've giving every other team that leeway in spruiking their future prospects, every side will be full of A graders in 2026...

 

[Stab Pass]

Hey here's something I haven't seen in a while. A starting 18 all 26 and under with no debuts

B Emerson Jeka Sam De Koning Jack Bowes
HB Zach Guthrie Connor O’Sullivan Jack Henry
C Max Holmes Tanner Bruhn Mitch Knevitt
HF Brad Close Ollie Henry Ted Clohesy
F Tyson Stengle Shannon Neale Ollie Dempsey
Fol Toby Conway Jhye Clark Brandon Parfitt

Gryan says hello

 

[moond0g]

Assuming draft pick has any bearing on player quality.

View attachment 1863284

I'd say there's a pretty clear relationship between draft pick and quality of player. For all the anecdotal evidence that people try and use to suggest otherwise.

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[BORIS332]

View attachment 1863298

I'd say there's a pretty clear relationship between draft pick and quality of player. For all the anecdotal evidence that people try and use to suggest otherwise.

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Clumsily worded by me, I'm not suggesting there's no relationship between draft pick and player quality, more that loading up our spine with early picks doesn't guarantee we're all set.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Would prefer JUH over Cadman, if I had a choice.

Of course, I’m not assuming we can get either… It’ll be damn hard to just have either one of them get to us.

JUH looked better as a junior IMO and should be just about ready to explode after one more year in the system.

I dare say any contract we will be offering him will be the biggest in the club’s history (by some way).

Do we make him a huge offer (like most other clubs will be doing) and potentially get in the running for him or do we stick with our “not paying overs” tier system and walk around with heaps of money in our pockets for years we don’t spend on getting elite required talent in?

I guess players will still want to come to us (for unders) because we are right in the flag winning window after a strong season missing the eight.

The question is.

Do we offer JUH a Naughton type contract (and possibly more) like other clubs will be doing or do we not get in the JUH race?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Assuming draft pick has any bearing on player quality.

View attachment 1863284

That's why I said a decent investment.

I'm just saying we're spending the capital on it

 

[CatToTheFuture]

With no debuts? When did O'Sullivan debut?

Yeah I missed that one. Started writing a line up with a different purpose and changed mid-stream

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Gryan says hello

Full back now sorted then

 

[Lana]

There is a strong correlation between being named Gryan and playing more than 100 games at AFL level. I feel that list managers throughout the league haven't utilitsed this avenue of recruitment enough.

 

[Hinkley29]

Why is everyone so keen on Cadman? Does anyone actually think he will be a star, or are we just rating him because he was pick 1 in the draft? Not many other clubs would have had him at pick 1 in the 2022 draft, and his 2023 season numbers were awful. I understand KPFs take a lot longer, but even by those standards he was bad.

View attachment 1863287

19 year old key forward playing in a team that had a poor system for key forwards.

Stats for any player in that situation are meaningless.

Watch the games, he is going to be really really good, if not great.

He is a player worth breaking the bank for.

JUH is also worth breaking the bank, if he can get a bit more consistency in his game he will be awesome. He is a player that needs to get out of his current situation, that WB forwardline is way too top heavy and he will always be competing for space with Naughton and their next wave of tall blokes. If the Bulldogs didn’t have such a stubborn unhinged coach Naughton would be all Australian key defender and they would be competing for premierships. Long may bevo reign at the Dogs.

 

[Cameron_Jezza]

19 year old key forward playing in a team that had a poor system for key forwards.

Stats for any player in that situation are meaningless.

Watch the games, he is going to be really really good, if not great.

He is a player worth breaking the bank for.

JUH is also worth breaking the bank, if he can get a bit more consistency in his game he will be awesome. He is a player that needs to get out of his current situation, that WB forwardline is way too top heavy and he will always be competing for space with Naughton and their next wave of tall blokes. If the Bulldogs didn’t have such a stubborn unhinged coach Naughton would be all Australian key defender and they would be competing for premierships. Long may bevo reign at the Dogs.

I saw Cadman live a couple of times. I think a bit early to tell. He played well in the last couple of VFL games. I think if he plays say 15 games or more, averages more than a goal a game he probably resigns with GWS for 2 years.
If he plays better than that ( say more than 1.5 goals a game ) he might sign for 3 or 4 years with GWS.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I admire your optimism.

But of the 8 players you've listed
1 - doesn't even play for us.
2 - have yet to play a single match
2 - have played a combined 6 matches
That leaves 3 (SDK, JHenry, OHenry), who I agree are all above average prospects.

But if you've giving every other team that leeway in spruiking their future prospects, every side will be full of A graders in 2026...

It's almost as if I put the word 'hypothetical' in there for a reason.

You seem to love shooting down others posts, and then contribute no alternative posts with any work or research, other than the pessimistic viewpoint of the post you're critiquing.

It's a hypothetical predicting 2-4 years into the future. Check out some oppo boards and try doing it for every other club, and I think you'll find we've invested in that area more than most, which is cause for optimism.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

It's been well reported that were were interested in Bowes and had started having chats with him long before GC confirmed they were looking to clear cap space & include a top 10 pick in the deal - that was a key factor in him choosing Geelong over other late coming teams

None of that explains though why a team or player would sit down mid-contract and renegotiate a pay cut for the remainder of his deal

I also can't see a situation or team where the coach has a talk with the recruitment & list management team that goes along the line, "Player X isn't performing strong enough, please renegotiate the remainder of his contract at a lower value" - there's zero incentive for a player to agree to it

I wasn't referring to mid contract negotiation but end of contract. But actually didn't know all the details like duration etc. Was guessing he was on a 1m a year contract to bring him here which would be coming to an end in the next couple years.

Anyway, don't rate him but hopefully he has good seasons to come and gets paid accordingly. Does he have the tank/speed to play on the wing ?

 

[BORIS332]

He’s already employed for the next 3 years.

And if he says no to accepting a pay cut mid contract, what exactly is the club going to do?

Cut Bowes from the list while paying him out at his agreed & signed contract?

OP was talking about end-of-contract, not mid-contract:

I wasn't referring to mid contract negotiation but end of contract.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

OP was talking about end-of-contract, not mid-contract:

Wasn’t clear as his contract ends in 2026. Pointless talking about his next offer this far out.

 

[cats_09]

Wasn’t clear as his contract ends in 2026. Pointless talking about his next offer this far out.

I have to agree with that - based on other discussion points and the mention of Jezza's contract, I interpreted it as being his current contract and trying to renegotiate that to open up cap space for FAs or other signings

 

[D BRIDGE]

The more I think about it the more I'm getting pumped about Mannagh.

The guy is not only getting the ball plenty and kicking bunches of goals... but he's also averaging 5.4 tackles in the VFL.

Guys like Close, Miers, and Stengle are all around 2.5 tackles per game.

Yes it's 5.4 in the VFL but it's a great sign that he is a two-way player with plenty of attacking zip and defensive pressure in his game.

I'm a fan of what Dempsey produced in the VFL last season and Mannagh was one... possibly two steps above that in output.

He also has been working a full-time job... so fingers crossed he can improve once he gets into a full-time pro system on whatever talents he has and really be a Zorko-type mature selection for us.

 

[Turbocat]

The more I think about it the more I'm getting pumped about Mannagh.

The guy is not only getting the ball plenty and kicking bunches of goals... but he's also averaging 5.4 tackles in the VFL.

Guys like Close, Miers, and Stengle are all around 2.5 tackles per game.

Yes it's 5.4 in the VFL but it's a great sign that he is a two-way player with plenty of attacking zip and defensive pressure in his game.

I'm a fan of what Dempsey produced in the VFL last season and Mannagh was one... possibly two steps above that in output.

He also has been working a full-time job... so fingers crossed he can improve once he gets into a full-time pro system on whatever talents he has and really be a Zorko-type mature selection for us.

Might he have the same impact as Stengles first year? ..and if he does... what does Stengle do long term? FA at the end of 2024

 

[Turbocat]

19 year old key forward playing in a team that had a poor system for key forwards.

Stats for any player in that situation are meaningless.

Watch the games, he is going to be really really good, if not great.

He is a player worth breaking the bank for.

JUH is also worth breaking the bank, if he can get a bit more consistency in his game he will be awesome. He is a player that needs to get out of his current situation, that WB forwardline is way too top heavy and he will always be competing for space with Naughton and their next wave of tall blokes. If the Bulldogs didn’t have such a stubborn unhinged coach Naughton would be all Australian key defender and they would be competing for premierships. Long may bevo reign at the Dogs.

First ...if a young KPF says they are interested..especially one draft as early as Cadman ..I think we are going to be interested. Odds are he will be expensive but due to the development type years ..he probably is significantly cheaper than P1. He would cost our R1 for sure.. but just like with Bruhn... id pay it. By 2025 he will be starting to demand selection... and we will have a spot to fill.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Might he have the same impact as Stengles first year? ..and if he does... what does Stengle do long term? FA at the end of 2024

AA is a high bar to set, I think it'll be a win if Mannagh can just take his chance and cement himself as a clear best 22 player.

As far as Stengle goes, hopefully he can have a good year and sign on for longer.

Stengle never really got going last year after getting absolutely creamed in that R1 Howe incident and then breaking his arm/wrist/hand or whatever is was he hurt mid year.

 

[Turbocat]

It makes sense, and because the spine is such a crucial area of the ground, it fast tracks where we're going immensely.

In a hypothetical world, in 12 months if we have:

SDK - Key Defender
J Henry - Medium Defender
COS - Key Defender
Conway - Ruck
Edwards - Ruck/Forward
Neale - Key Forward
Henry - Medium Forward
Cadman - Key Forward

That's genuinely one of the best young core spines in the game, especially seeing as there's a huge power vacuum right now in the league with key position talent.

If guys like Sav, Petty, Chol, BZT, Sweet, Soldo and so on are being seen as the best available, then we're a long way in front with what we'd already have on our list for 10-15 years to come.

That's with Jezza & Stewart still around for a few years yet as well.

It allows us to go big in 2026-27 with someone like Smith as a free agent to finish off the midfield, which is a much easier area of the ground to develop anyway as quality mids are typically pretty easy to draft or trade in.

Key position talent is much harder to find, and you tend to hold onto them for a long time once you've got them (Hence the lack of supply at the moment)

We would have already drafted all of ours with pretty high picks (Outside of Cadman, who was the highest you can be), and all things being equal, would be set for a very long time.

You have encapsulated why I was happy to go talls this year. We still may have to trade in .within the next couple of years but we are back on track of being a chance to develop our own. Just add a bit of luck with our lates and rookies.. and we will be singing dixie.