Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[iameviljez]

Disingenuous to say that. He would replace Rohan in the squad.

I don't like the idea of recruiting a 30 year old for backup in a position which isn't a key defender or a ruckman, to be honest.

I'd sooner play Bowes or Dangerfield forward if we need to Break Glass, rather than consume a list spot and salary like that. Give me another hit at a Close/Dempsey late pick, please.

 

[Pns_blister]

I really hope Richmond bid on Levi Ashcroft with #1

I'm sick of these jet kids going to clubs for well unders.

Credit to Adelaide for bidding #1 on JUH.

I think as it stands the Lions would currently be 1000 points in deficit so there's no doubt they'll be trading their R1 this year for a thousand late picks to rort the system and make up the points required.

Won’t happen, as they will be trading their first round pick to Richmond, which will come with a wink and a handshake.

 

[iameviljez]

Went and had a look at the 9 months of the calendar year he's injured for - not sure anyone can get him right

Also that injuries really pile up on a player's quality and longevity. Players who battle injuries for years in their 20s rarely become stars in their 30s.

 

[Mangy Carl]

Hopefully last pick in the first round then.

Anyway if you are a true Geelong fan and think we will give up 2x R1's for Smith (or the value of that)... I think you will be very pleased after trade period when you see that we got him for less and saved important draft capital.

Yes hopefully. If we win the flag this year, our first selection would TECHNICALLY still be a first round selection, but in reality with early bids coming in for Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako and possibly the Camporeale twins, that selection could drop as far as 21-23 and will hold the value of an early 2nd rounder.

The Doggies would absolutely be wanting and asking for a top 10 pick for Smith. I really can't see them accepting our first 2 selections this year, which would likely sit around 20 and 40ish. It certainly would be fantastic if they would, but I just cant see it happening.

Bookmark this, and return in a couple of weeks.. If we get the deal done for only our 1st and 2nd rounders, then I'll happily admit I don't know what I'm talking about..

 

[iameviljez]

The Doggies would absolutely be wanting and asking for a top 10 pick for Smith. I really can't see them accepting our first 2 selections this year, which would likely sit around 20 and 40ish. It certainly would be fantastic if they would, but I just cant see it happening.

I think reasonable consensus had them accepting something around the mark of p15, which was slated to be our pick until the cards fell our way in the last few weeks and we had a belter of a QF.

 

[Gunf]

I do love the fact that most still think that say pick 15 being pushed out to 25 makes it worth less.

The only reason it gets pushed out that far is due to FA compensation, F&S and priority picks.

Before it get pushed out you are getting the 15th best available pick after it gets pushed out you are still getting the 15 best available pick.

The only way that changes is if the system completely changes.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

I do love the fact that most still think that say pick 15 being pushed out to 25 makes it worth less.

The only reason it gets pushed out that far is due to FA compensation, F&S and priority picks.

Before it get pushed out you are getting the 15th best available pick after it gets pushed out you are still getting the 15 best available pick.

The only way that changes is if the system completely changes.

Its sort of true in the sense pick 1 doesn't get pushed out the same amount as say pick 20.

 

[iameviljez]

I do love the fact that most still think that say pick 15 being pushed out to 25 makes it worth less.

The only reason it gets pushed out that far is due to FA compensation, F&S and priority picks.

Before it get pushed out you are getting the 15th best available pick after it gets pushed out you are still getting the 15 best available pick.

The only way that changes is if the system completely changes.

But it isn't Pick 15 in that sense of getting the 15th-best player.

Clubs have wised up hugely in relation to father-sons, and getting them on accelerated programs early. Free Agency compo is also massive if it goes to a shit club (i.e. James Frawley netting p3 for the Dees). It really has killed the first round for better clubs.

 

[sexyhunk]

I do love the fact that most still think that say pick 15 being pushed out to 25 makes it worth less.

The only reason it gets pushed out that far is due to FA compensation, F&S and priority picks.

Before it get pushed out you are getting the 15th best available pick after it gets pushed out you are still getting the 15 best available pick.

The only way that changes is if the system completely changes.

that is true with FS/NGA only as those players (Nick Daicos, Sam Darcy) are essentaily "not included" in the draft pool, FA compo is dfferent as it allow a team to pick from the available pool. Say if stkilda got band one for battle, they have an extra pick in the first round.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

But it isn't Pick 15 in that sense of getting the 15th-best player.

Clubs have wised up hugely in relation to father-sons, and getting them on accelerated programs early. Free Agency compo is also massive if it goes to a shit club (i.e. James Frawley netting p3 for the Dees). It really has killed the first round for better clubs.

I may mis-understand this - but is there a situation where pick 1 couldn't actually get anyone they choose?

 

[Hamingja]

But it isn't Pick 15 in that sense of getting the 15th-best player.

Clubs have wised up hugely in relation to father-sons, and getting them on accelerated programs early. Free Agency compo is also massive if it goes to a shit club (i.e. James Frawley netting p3 for the Dees). It really has killed the first round for better clubs.

It has killed the draft for everyone. For instance Adelaide has finished bottom 4 this year. Their second pick is currently pick 24, 18 teams plus a couple of North priority picks handed out last year. By the time you add academy, father son, free agency compo, that pick is in the 30s. In the old days when we rebuilt through the draft, in a 16 team competition, if you had a club that finished bottom 4 (and yes I realise we didn't), you are taking your third pick in the draft in the 30s, not your 2nd. Bottoming out via the draft is dead as a way of rebuilding and Tassie is only going to make it worse.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Yep, there is on both sides of that argument and I am saying is that Conway is like a fine wine.
I believe. He will grow into a ripper. Lady luck, it’s our turn baby!!
Those who’ve put a line through him already I find are defeatist that they readily accept his failure will come. Ignoring that perhaps just maybe he might actually buck the trend of his run with injuries. Pessimists FMD. I thought they died off after 2007.
Anyways. That is my belief and my opinion.
Each to their own, but this is mine,
Cheers Giddyup Catters!

Cat fans need to realise that Toby Conway came into AFL built akin to a giraffe and unfortunately his body wasn't capable of standing the riggers of AFL, even in a lighter capacity which wasn't to be unexpected. It will be a completely different Toby Conway when he fully grows into himself, where his body can handle the stress of playing AFL. I've stated from the get-go that Toby Conway will be in the top 3 ruckman in the AFL..... and HE WILL.

 

[Just do something]

Cat fans need to realise that Toby Conway came into AFL built akin to a giraffe and unfortunately his body wasn't capable of standing the riggers of AFL, even in a lighter capacity. It will be a completely different Toby Conway when he fully grows into himself, where his body can handle the stress of playing AFL. I've stated from the get-go that Toby Conway will be in the top 3 ruckman in the AFL..... and HE WILL.

ALL OF YOU. ALL OF YOU.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

It’s take Martin just for the melts

Given how toxic and imbecilic some of the Richmond posters are on the main board that make it virtually intolerable to read anything to do with the Cats, your suggestion of 'taking Martin just for the melts'....... appeals greatly.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Was just going through our player stats focussing on contested vs uncontested possessions for the year. I found it interesting.

We only have 1 play who has more contested than uncontested (Danger) and 4 who have the same (Atkins, Stanley, Neale, O Henry) with 3 others at 90% (Tanner, Blitz, Tyson).

I suppose that group doesn’t surprise me as inside mids and forward players who need to win contests…

From there I was surprised by a couple of things.

Mannagh was at about 80% which shows he is pretty good on the outside as well (I expected he would have been more even) and Dempsey was actually at 70% the same as Bowes, Stewart, J Henry and more than a lot of other players. Whilst Dempsey looks like an outside link player on the wing (which don’t really get to stoppages) the stats say that 4 out of every 10 possessions were contested - I think that really shows over time he could become more of a stoppage player.

The other outlier for me was Mitch Duncan…Only 1 in every 4 possessions are contested. (The next lowest was 4 in 10 from players like Cameron, Humprhies etc). Miers was 1 in every 3

Maybe useless stats but I found it interesting (was board on a plane!)

Not a useless state at all Chawkts, as it's so important to have balance, moreso with contested coz if we have weakness in that area then finals becomes a real issue. Shaun Mannagh and Ollie Dempsey was 'great to see' with them not being reliant on the ball been given to them but they're also great ball users and decision makers. Our recruiting recently has been 'off the charts' with so many 'no names' coming from 'no where'....... In Wellsy and Mackie we trust and GO CATS !!!

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Yes hopefully. If we win the flag this year, our first selection would TECHNICALLY still be a first round selection, but in reality with early bids coming in for Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako and possibly the Camporeale twins, that selection could drop as far as 21-23 and will hold the value of an early 2nd rounder.

The Doggies would absolutely be wanting and asking for a top 10 pick for Smith. I really can't see them accepting our first 2 selections this year, which would likely sit around 20 and 40ish. It certainly would be fantastic if they would, but I just cant see it happening.

Bookmark this, and return in a couple of weeks.. If we get the deal done for only our 1st and 2nd rounders, then I'll happily admit I don't know what I'm talking about..

In respect to the early bids changing draft position it really doesn't matter. Coz with Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako, etc it doesn't stop the 'draft selection' of a club wanting to draft a certain player within the top 18. If number 18 player in draft then becomes 22 because of the early bids of Ashcroft, lombard, Kako, etc.... it makes 'no difference' because instead of getting their man at 18 they get him at 22.

 

[cats_09]

North delist a few

 

[iameviljez]

It has killed the draft for everyone

That I disagree with. The draft does still at least work in some fashion, it's just that it's overly diluted by the developments of the last 15 years and the system doesn't have it "right" yet.

The changes I'd make are:

• FA Compo picks to be taken between rounds, not tied to club finishing positions. Ben McKay netting North Melbourne p3 in the draft was ridiculously unfair for the next shittest clubs.
• Planned phase-out for Academy selections once the team is established enough to benefit from Father-Son rule
• Kill the F/S bidding discount - the points system is already generous enough, in how it over-values later picks.

 

[Hinkley29]

We only use 4-5 prime centre bounce mids.

With Danger, Stewart, Holmes, Smith, Atkins and Bruhn we'll already have 1-2 of those not attending many centre bounces. That's not considering Bowes who consistently attends a few a game.

Kennedy is clearly inferior to the first 4. Atkins is miles better defensively so gives us balance. Bruhn is trending up and should be well better than Kennedy. Bowes is much more versatile.

I can't see how Kennedy cracks that midfield. And that's before we get games into Clark, Knevitt or Clohesy. Or we look at how Dempsey, Mannagh, Stengle or Miers might work in at centre bounces. Or consider Guthrie maybe coming back.

At worst Martin is 1 injury from being in our best 22 and his best probably forces his way in. Kennedy would play the role of Parfitt or Hardie where he's not good enough to justify a game in midfield barring a calamitous injury run and not versatile enough to play elsewhere.

Martin never plays.

The more correct statement would be “At worst Martin is 1 injury away from retirement and probably never forces his way in.”

Kennedy would be a much better pick up.

 

[Hinkley29]

Rhys Stanley and Mitch Duncan to be given another contract for next season. Duncan more so a good will gesture to get him to 300 games per Scott Gullen

Yes!

My prediction of Stanley becoming the modern day Clark Keating gets closer to reality.

 

[Hinkley29]

I think we all would’ve liked Chapman and Stevie J to have finished their careers in the hoops. They were some tough calls that they may have got wrong. But that was a long time ago and we don’t have a big list of players to phase out like we did then.
Danger will leave a huge hole when he goes, happy for him to have two years.

Stevie J being let go was definitely wrong.

Chappy kinda seemed cooked to me, but Stevie definitely had more left in the tank.

I reckon Scott got spooked a little bit by the sharp fall off he saw when Brisbane kept all their old guys and jumped the gun a little bit.

we all live and learn, and Scott seems to have taken the lessons on board recently.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Yes!

My prediction of Stanley becoming the modern day Clark Keating gets closer to reality.

He's clearly had a rethink, or like last year, the club has convinced him to play on.

He told players 6-8 weeks ago that he's most likely finish up so it will be interesting to see what's changed. Perhaps the club has seen the upside in holding him back for most of the year and just releasing him "Brad Otten's style" late in the year to have an impact. Physically I know his knee is a real problem so I'd be really surprised if they planned for him to play more than a dozen or so games next season. The Chris Scott "whole squad" mentality might be really specific when it comes to ruck - Conway for 12-15 games next season and a chop-out from Stanley / Blicavs for the remainder.

Unless SDK is the preferred option. Personally I think SDK will be needed back in defence when we come up against the Sam Darcy types - the rest of the time I think we might see a combination of ruck and some time forward. particularly if COS has a big pre season and adds a few pounds.

 

[Reg Hickey]

I do love the fact that most still think that say pick 15 being pushed out to 25 makes it worth less.

The only reason it gets pushed out that far is due to FA compensation, F&S and priority picks.

Before it get pushed out you are getting the 15th best available pick after it gets pushed out you are still getting the 15 best available pick.

The only way that changes is if the system completely changes.

It very clearly DOES make it worth less. I don't understand how you don't understand that.

Pick 15 gets the 15th best player in the draft (in theory at least). Pick 25 DOES NOT get the 15th best player, it gets the 25th best player, who is clearly worth less. How the 24 players before that were taken is irrelevant, the point is that they WERE taken before then and so are clearly rated higher than whoever is available at pick 25, at least by the clubs that took them.

If the pick is pushed out by FA compensation or priority picks, those are not tied to specific players, they're simply picks in the open draft and the clubs holding them will take the best player available at that point... which is one less available player for us at pick 25. Which makes our pick that much less valuable.

If the pick is pushed out by F/S, it's because someone has bid on the F/S prospect presumably because he's the best player available at that pick. AGAIN taking a player off the table that we then don't have the ability to pick at 25, AGAIN making pick 25 less valuable.

It's pretty simple.

 

[Hinkley29]

I want to know if the doctor was able to keep a straight face

The doctor stamped his loyalty card on the way in. 1 more visit for a free arthroscopy.

 

[Hinkley29]

Sims slipping out of Twomey’s latest phantom top 30 …. probably puts him that range where we have taken talls recently. Probably not the type that CS likes but I like he has a presence. Needs to polish up his conversion.

Hotton slipping to 15 …makes wish we would have a pick in this draft.. If Hotton is 15, Trainor at 16 , Berry at 17 then the first round is a good one.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' September ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his third Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

We do have a pick.