Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[Lana]

We aren’t Collingwood…

That's why I'm hopeful, they at least had the Daicos F/S the next year to bail out their shit decision

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We aren’t Collingwood…

There's a reason we say we "aren't Collingwood" rather than oppo fans looking at that scenario and saying "well aren't geelong"

 

[dazbroncos]

Really don’t want to concede our FR1 for late rd 1 early rd 2 picks.

IMO it’s ok to have a passive year now and again.
It trading doesn’t mean losing
go catters

 

[year of the cat]

There's a reason we say we "aren't Collingwood" rather than oppo fans looking at that scenario and saying "well aren't geelong"

My rationale was that we are apparently interested in Gerreyn and Clarke who will go around the mark of those 2 Bomber picks. If you assume (with now what seems a reasonable draw) we finish top 4 next year then we have a pick around 15-17 again. With a draft heavily compromised by academy selections that pick no longer has quite the appeal. Maybe it’s better to trade for 2 players we like in this years draft and gain a year in development?

Worthy of consideration I would have thought.

 

[sexyhunk]

Really don’t want to concede our FR1 for late rd 1 early rd 2 picks.

IMO it’s ok to have a passive year now and again.
It trading doesn’t mean losing
go catters

depend where the 2 picks are, we shown recently we hit our mid to low range picks more than the high ones. if the recruiters reckon they can jag two decent talents this years i say do it.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

My rationale was that we are apparently interested in Gerreyn and Clarke who will go around the mark of those 2 Bomber picks. If you assume (with now what seems a reasonable draw) we finish top 4 next year then we have a pick around 15-17 again. With a draft heavily compromised by academy selections that pick no longer has quite the appeal. Maybe it’s better to trade for 2 players we like in this years draft and gain a year in development?

Worthy of consideration I would have thought.

Yeah but your assumption is a huge one and likely fatal to the outcome

 

[year of the cat]

Yeah but your assumption is a huge one and likely fatal to the outcome

If we fall off a cliff it’s not ideal I agree.

 

[Footy Smarts]

My rationale was that we are apparently interested in Gerreyn and Clarke who will go around the mark of those 2 Bomber picks. If you assume (with now what seems a reasonable draw) we finish top 4 next year then we have a pick around 15-17 again. With a draft heavily compromised by academy selections that pick no longer has quite the appeal. Maybe it’s better to trade for 2 players we like in this years draft and gain a year in development?

Worthy of consideration I would have thought.

There are 2 problems with that.

Firstly those Essendon picks will slide to about picks 31 and 34 after bids matching. Giving up a future first feels like a huge amount for 2 picks outside 30.

The second and much bigger problem with trading with Essendon is we have to trade before the Kako bid so won't know who will be available. We could find we've traded our future 1st for 2 guys who aren't actually there by the time our picks come.

Meanwhile our first pick (45) will probably come in to about 40 after pick matching. Our second pick (57) will probably come in to 50. So we're not that far away from those picks anyway.

We're better off waiting until the various bids have been matched and see who's still on the board in the mid-late 20s. If we're really keen on someone we might be able to upgrade that pick 40 using a future 2nd or 3rd rather than giving up our future 1st.

 

[year of the cat]

There are 2 problems with that.

Firstly those Essendon picks will slide to about picks 31 and 34 after bids matching. Giving up a future first feels like a huge amount for 2 picks outside 30.

The second and much bigger problem with trading with Essendon is we have to trade before the Kako bid so won't know who will be available. We could find we've traded our future 1st for 2 guys who aren't actually there by the time our picks come.

Meanwhile our first pick (45) will probably come in to about 40 after pick matching. Our second pick (57) will probably come in to 50. So we're not that far away from those picks anyway.

We're better off waiting until the various bids have been matched and see who's still on the board in the mid-late 20s. If we're really keen on someone we might be able to upgrade that pick 40 using a future 2nd or 3rd rather than giving up our future 1st.

That’s very true. You’d only consider it if you were sure the players you wanted would be there.

 

[Two Planks]

That’s very true. You’d only consider it if you were sure the players you wanted would be there.

Unfortunately not possible as the bombers will have to do the trade prior to matching the bid for Kako

 

[year of the cat]

Unfortunately not possible as the bombers will have to do the trade prior to matching the bid for Kako

I know that. Not sure how much intel Wells/Mackie have but they’d have a fair idea I would have thought whether the teams with picks around that stage of the draft had interest in those 2 players.

Probably a moot point anyway. Unlikely to occur.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I know that. Not sure how much intel Wells/Mackie have but they’d have a fair idea I would have thought whether the teams with picks around that stage of the draft had interest in those 2 players.

Probably a moot point anyway. Unlikely to occur.

The most likely is for Richmond's last 2 picks. Picks 23 and 24 before bids.

Carlton traded their future 1st and 2nd for 14 before bids. The F2 isn't worth much and they're shorter odds for the flag than us. So our F1 would be worth pick a pick inside 20 before bids.

So future 1st for 23 and 24 isn't far off. Those picks will become about 27 and 28. If we love a couple of guys still on the board I'd do our F1 plus maybe our current 2nd pick (will be ~50 after bids) for 27 and 28. But we have to know what's left on the board to pull the trigger.

 

[Turbocat]

My rationale was that we are apparently interested in Gerreyn and Clarke who will go around the mark of those 2 Bomber picks. If you assume (with now what seems a reasonable draw) we finish top 4 next year then we have a pick around 15-17 again. With a draft heavily compromised by academy selections that pick no longer has quite the appeal. Maybe it’s better to trade for 2 players we like in this years draft and gain a year in development?

Worthy of consideration I would have thought.

If we fall off a cliff it’s not ideal I agree.

Sooner or later the disparaging sceptics will be right … one bad year with injuries and its probably doesn't matter how good the list is … but Id think the club would be hopeful that we can be around the mark again with the addition of BSmith. To me its more about the cost when so many clubs would like to buy into the draft. I thought Ess were looking to match for Koko and then wanting to trade in again.

Would Gerryn be gone in the first three WA picks?

 

[BennyGan]

Really don’t want to concede our FR1 for late rd 1 early rd 2 picks.

IMO it’s ok to have a passive year now and again.
It trading doesn’t mean losing
go catters

Only way I see them doing this is if they can get someone that they rated inside their top 10 that’s fallen for some reason. I do think there will be a lot of different looking draft boards for clubs with how they rate the 10-35 range

 

[year of the cat]

Sooner or later the disparaging sceptics will be right … one bad year with injuries and its probably doesn't matter how good the list is … but Id think the club would be hopeful that we can be around the mark again with the addition of BSmith. To me its more about the cost when so many clubs would like to buy into the draft. I thought Ess were looking to match for Koko and then wanting to trade in again.

Would Gerryn be gone in the first three WA picks?

I assumed that they would be happy to trade out 28 and 31 to something with value next year allowing them to either hold it or trade back in after Kako had been drafted. They already hold a couple of FF so have the capacity to get back in already I suppose anyway. Have to see.

Gerreyn draft standing seems to be climbing. But like many of them around his mark he could go as early as early 20’s or as late at the 40’s.

 

[Lana]

I assumed that they would be happy to trade out 28 and 31 to something with value next year allowing them to either hold it or trade back in after Kako had been drafted. They already hold a couple of FF so have the capacity to get back in already I suppose anyway. Have to see.

Gerreyn draft standing seems to be climbing. But like many of them around his mark he could go as early as early 20’s or as late at the 40’s.

Big fan of Gerreyn but would be absolutely shocked if he went that early, clubs would be over looking a lot of fashionable types.

 

[year of the cat]

Big fan of Gerreyn but would be absolutely shocked if he went that early, clubs would be over looking a lot of fashionable types.

Where do you see him going? I think he goes before our first unless we trade up. Probably early 30’s.

 

[Lana]

Where do you see him going? I think he goes before our first unless we trade up. Probably early 30’s.

I think he'll make it past our first pick. At least a half a dozen KPF will go before him.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Wonder whether we look to trade our FF for the Bombers picks 28 and 31? Points a bit in our favour if you value our FF at around 15. They I think should still have the points to match a bid for Kako.

Nah the players at 28 and 31 will be not dissimilar quality to 45 and FF is too big a risk anyway. There's no upside to that trade.

I'd only trade the future 2nd to get an extra pick in the 30s if we want more choices.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think he'll make it past our first pick. At least a half a dozen KPF will go before him.

Armstrong will go top 10.
I think both Whitlocks (though I think they are a tad overrated) and shanahan and faull will go in the 10-30 range. I think sims and nicholls and West and a couple of others get to 45 but I think gerryn could be there at 45 or go a lot earlier he has a wide range.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The most likely is for Richmond's last 2 picks. Picks 23 and 24 before bids.

Carlton traded their future 1st and 2nd for 14 before bids. The F2 isn't worth much and they're shorter odds for the flag than us. So our F1 would be worth pick a pick inside 20 before bids.

So future 1st for 23 and 24 isn't far off. Those picks will become about 27 and 28. If we love a couple of guys still on the board I'd do our F1 plus maybe our current 2nd pick (will be ~50 after bids) for 27 and 28. But we have to know what's left on the board to pull the trigger.

The first pick of day 2 holds value. We wouldn't get 23 and 24 for our FR1 it would be 23 straight up I'd say (based on the Holmes precedent).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

HS reporting (not that I think they are credible) that Geelong is keen on Smith (who will get matched) gerreyn and Dodson.
Gerreyn I could believe (although I suppose it's up to your perspective if you think having 3 WA ruck/kpf on the list is a big risk) although I reckon he may get to 45 anyway.
Dodson would be interesting-i rate him a lot talent wise the ceiling is huge but it would be unusual to trade a future 1st for a ruck (I think we would need to trade to early 20s to get him) unless we think Conway's foot is cooked. We need more of a short term ruck for next year (hence my asking for a mature ruck late in the draft or ssp) than we do a long term one unless we are planning on Conway being injured or Edwards not being here.

 

[Lana]

The first pick of day 2 holds value. We wouldn't get 23 and 24 for our FR1 it would be 23 straight up I'd say (based on the Holmes precedent).

Which is super silly

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Which is super silly

I wouldn't do it because it's too risky but like we did for Holmes (gamble paid off) I can see us doing it again. But I wouldn't trade it.

 

[year of the cat]

I think he'll make it past our first pick. At least a half a dozen KPF will go before him.

I hope you are correct. I agree that a number of KPF’s will go earlier though.