Werewolf Gralin's Brutal Werewolf - Day Ten- Village Wins

[thewizardmelon]

Jye made it pretty clear that N1/2 were ‘successful‘ so those players seem to have lost a life each . Conversely the hit on ND last night was unsuccessful.
If he lost a life it would‘ve been by lynch
I don’t have a count and won’t be in a place to verify until later today but seems others had ND ahead of Dero /anyone else yesterday .

So ND has lost a life. We lynch him we’re at worst, 2 more successive lynches away from hitting his underling. Versus we try to take out people who aren’t night immune first. Am I on the right track?

 

[MWPP]

If in theory the identity of one of the 2IC’s was known, would it be preferred we still hit ND?

I’m not saying that’s the case, I’m just catching up and a bit unsure of why we don’t want to lynch ND now. Is it because it will take 4 lynches (2 for head evil and 2 for their underling) which is time we don’t have?

If one of the 2ICs was known IMO they would absolutely be the play before ND for the reason above (with wasting retris on them being the main alternative )
If we are confident that Nd was Lynched and not dero yesterday , this becomes even more true

 

[Cadsky]

If in theory the identity of one of the 2IC’s was known, would it be preferred we still hit ND?

I’m not saying that’s the case, I’m just catching up and a bit unsure of why we don’t want to lynch ND now. Is it because it will take 4 lynches (2 for head evil and 2 for their underling) which is time we don’t have?

This is my read. Having to lynch head evil twice and then replacement head twice is a lot to play out, but if the day/night phases are sped up imo this isn't a big deal.

 

[MWPP]

So ND has lost a life. We lynch him we’re at worst, 2 more successive lynches away from hitting his underling. Versus we try to take out people who aren’t night immune first. Am I on the right track?

I wouldn’t punt on an unknown over ND (hence my vote being on ND)
But yes if an underling that is specifically Underboss or Beta is known then they should be next

is there a chance Jye is intimidated?
Even if he is I’m inclined to believe an ND miss

and his follow up questions go against it

 

[thewizardmelon]

If one of the 2ICs was known IMO they would absolutely be the play before ND for the reason above (with wasting retris on them being the main alternative )
If we are confident that Nd was Lynched and not dero yesterday , this becomes even more true

This is my read. Having to lynch head evil twice and then replacement head twice is a lot to play out, but if the day/night phases are sped up imo this isn't a big deal.

Give me a moment to confer with flogulous colleagues re this tactic

 

[MP_]

Just putting it out there that whilst RU was seered as villager he could also be scumbag or the cub

 

[MWPP]

This is my read. Having to lynch head evil twice and then replacement head twice is a lot to play out, but if the day/night phases are sped up imo this isn't a big deal.

To me it makes little difference if sped up or not actually because it still involves an extra lynch. It’s not worth lynching another unknown villager over instead of ND IMO if we don’t have a safe alternative

 

[Frederico_WA]

If in theory the identity of one of the 2IC’s was known, would it be preferred we still hit ND?

I’m not saying that’s the case, I’m just catching up and a bit unsure of why we don’t want to lynch ND now. Is it because it will take 4 lynches (2 for head evil and 2 for their underling) which is time we don’t have?

I'm purely thinking timings.
Say flogs/P4L hit Underboss/Beta with a seer tonight (N3), we can Vig kill them N4 and lynch ND D5. Leaving us to turn attentions to other suspects today/tonight. Mindful that the mystic has 3 nights of intel to offer also.

 

[MWPP]

thewizardmelon
-my take changes slightly based on whether your kill has been used or not
If it hasn’t and you intended to quietly kill them tonight before viging tomorrow then that’s optimal too

 

[thewizardmelon]

thewizardmelon
-my take changes slightly based on whether your kill has been used or not
If it hasn’t and you intended to quietly kill them tonight before viging tomorrow then that’s optimal too

I won’t confirm which actions have or haven’t been used just yet and on whom. But yes it’s all about the timing. I’m coming around to taking out an underling first. Now it’s about deciding which one.

 

[MWPP]

before viging tomorrow

Before Lynching tomorrow
Of course the risk is that there’s a 2/3 chance that you will be wasting your kill
That’s sort of what I am trying to avoid , wasted/unnecessary Lynches or kills …

Also sort of helps that it’s ND over someone more dominant in this game haha, surely if he was going to go nuclear like Dingster last game that would’ve happened by now?

 

[MWPP]

2/3 chance that you will be wasting your kill

2/3 chance that you won’t be, sorry**
1/3 chance that you will be

this is all assuming that it was beta or underboss seered

disregard if it was wolf for example

 

[thewizardmelon]

2/3 chance that you won’t be, sorry**
1/3 chance that you will be

this is all assuming that it was beta or underboss seered

disregard if it was wolf for example

This plan all only fits if the flogs had or do use a seer and happen to hit a beta though. Pretty small % of that all lining up at present.

 

[MWPP]

That said, if Nd dies you’ll know how he flips so you’ll know if it’s worth using a vig or flog kill on said underling or not ^

Nd is the safe bet but it may not be the winning bet …

 

[MWPP]

This plan all only fits if the flogs had or do use a seer and happen to hit a beta though. Pretty small % of that all lining up at present.

Oh for sure, if there’s no intel as it stands we should just stick to ND
there’s enough known good or albeit known good for you to start suggesting retaliate options

 

[Frederico_WA]

Before Lynching tomorrow
Of course the risk is that there’s a 2/3 chance that you will be wasting your kill
That’s sort of what I am trying to avoid , wasted/unnecessary Lynches or kills …

Also sort of helps that it’s ND over someone more dominant in this game haha, surely if he was going to go nuclear like Dingster last game that would’ve happened by now?

Your naming names posts last night hit a lesser evil for sure

 

[Frederico_WA]

That said, if Nd dies you’ll know how he flips so you’ll know if it’s worth using a vig or flog kill on said underling or not ^

Nd is the safe bet but it may not be the winning bet …

The risk there is the underling becoming the Alpha/Godfather, you miss the window.

 

[thewizardmelon]

Just putting it out there that whilst RU was seered as villager he could also be scumbag or the cub

This reminds me someone can be infected or something right? Ugh how annoying

 

[MWPP]

The risk there is the underling becoming the Alpha/Godfather, you miss the window.

He’s not behaving like a doc and has left his claim horribly late if that’s what he is so I’m ruling that out. I have already ruled out the amulet .

That means he’s either one of the two factional heads, or SK

I think we all hope SK but gutfeel points to factional. That post to me about whether I thought Dingster was good or evil screamed person who who used a lesser non kill role that failed. it’s why I was reluctant to vote Nd. Had pie claimed even slightly earlier I would’ve discounted that possibility . There’s no jobe in this one and he isn’t the mystic.

 

[dogs105]

Doggie dog - who’s good and who’s in the doghouse according to you?

Bark twice if they’re holding you hostage without a bone

Woof

 

[MWPP]

This reminds me someone can be infected or something right? Ugh how annoying

Depends if they have used it yet, or better yet, used it and the target was either not a vanilla starter or was otherwise protected if you get my drift .

I’m more interested in why after 3 nights there are 0 final factional kills

 

[The Majestic]

Just putting it out there that whilst RU was seered as villager he could also be scumbag or the cub

This could be very true. Hmm.

 

[dogs105]

Wasn't he the leading vote getter yesterday? I might have missed some late votes but that was my most recent count...

I thought so??

 

[The Majestic]

That said, if Nd dies you’ll know how he flips so you’ll know if it’s worth using a vig or flog kill on said underling or not ^

Nd is the safe bet but it may not be the winning bet …

Well I am going to take the bet and place my vote on top of ND this time around and see where it takes things.

 

[Frederico_WA]

This reminds me someone can be infected or something right? Ugh how annoying

Seer as good until they completely turn too. It could be anyone P4L has already seered ... it could even be someone like MWPP or Chip who we have as confirmed villager. Ugh indeed!