Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[carlton_99]

1. Port Adelaide bring half a team to Melbourne as they have their eyes on a top of the table clash against Collingwood the following week.
2. Dead rubber against Collingwood (who already had top 2 secured).
3. Petracca goal against Melbourne that wasn't paid.
4. Fewer scoring shots in each of their finals against Melbourne and Sydney.

You asked.

1. They beat Port by 9 goals. Carlton also had significant injury issues that whole stretch of the season.
2. You lost the game move on
3. Petracca goal review was not lucky the same process was followed as any other review. Just because you don't like the decision doesn't make it wrong.
4. Fewer scoring shots and winning is not always just luck - that's a bizarre statement. You can be taking shots from low quality areas because the defence is forcing you there.

Again, you don't win 11 out of 12 games based on luck.

 

[Mr Meow]

You won two finals 11.8 to 9.14 then 11.7 to 9.17.

99 times out of 100 Melbourne win that semi.

The two top 4 sides in recent years that any side was lucky to face were the '19-21 Lions (who sorted their finals capability after) and '22-'23 Demons (inept when it mattered after their '21 flag). 4 straight sets exits between those 5 finals campaigns. Unbelievable inefficiency for converting attacks to goals.

Port '20 onwards could just about be thrown on there too, with some shocking finals blunders.

But it's also for this reason that as long as top 4 sides can be this flakey, anyone in the 8 with a good run can contend.

 

[carlton_99]

You won two finals 11.8 to 9.14 then 11.7 to 9.17.

99 times out of 100 Melbourne win that semi.

The Melbourne game they missed some shots and it was close throughout it happens. Sydney we were up all game (by as much as 6 goals). Scoring shots don't always tell you the whole story - you can be taking shots from bad areas of the ground etc.

Regardless my point stands you don't win 11 out of 12 games because of luck.

 

[carlton_99]

Just providing further support to the fact that the end of 2023 was not based on luck - Carlton started 2024 winning 11 of their first 15 games. That left them with 22 wins and 6 losses in 28 games between mid-2023 and mid-2024. Carlton have shown that their best footy is more than good enough to contend - consistency within a home and away season has been our issue.

 

[Scotland]

The Melbourne game they missed some shots and it was close throughout it happens. Sydney we were up all game (by as much as 6 goals). Scoring shots don't always tell you the whole story - you can be taking shots from bad areas of the ground etc.

Regardless my point stands you don't win 11 out of 12 games because of luck.

Carlton have not had a 15 win season since 2000. The only other team in that boat is North (1999) Gold Coast (never from 2011 onward). Essendon had their last in 2001.

Winning 12, 13, 13 games in successive seasons isn't luck. Carlton are alright but if Patrick Cripps reverts back to human levels the Blues won't play finals.

 

[Fadge]

1. They beat Port by 9 goals. Carlton also had significant injury issues that whole stretch of the season.
2. You lost the game move on
3. Petracca goal review was not lucky the same process was followed as any other review. Just because you don't like the decision doesn't make it wrong.
4. Fewer scoring shots and winning is not always just luck - that's a bizarre statement. You can be taking shots from low quality areas because the defence is forcing you there.

Again, you don't win 11 out of 12 games based on luck.

Oh, OK.

What you wanted to hear was that there was absolutely no luck involved in that stretch of games.

Of course there was luck involved, as has been pointed out!

 

[Mr Meow]

Just providing further support to the fact that the end of 2023 was not based on luck - Carlton started 2024 winning 11 of their first 15 games. That left them with 22 wins and 6 losses in 28 games between mid-2023 and mid-2024. Carlton have shown that their best footy is more than good enough to contend - consistency within a home and away season has been our issue.

I think that sums it up.

Carlton have been spending seasons in blocks where half the time they're performing as a top 4 side and half they're verging closer to bottom 4 form.

So it simply depends on whether you take an optimist (understandably almost every Blues supporter) or pessimist (most opposition supporters) view.

 

[Robertio]

You won two finals 11.8 to 9.14 then 11.7 to 9.17.

99 times out of 100 Melbourne win that semi.

Why didn't they then?

 

[Fadge]

Why didn't they then?

Because they were unlucky.

 

[Mr Meow]

Why didn't they then?

Mental implosion. Back to back straight sets for those Dees.

Couldn't hit a barn door through those 4 finals. In that respect Carlton weren't even lucky (intra game) as Melbourne wouldn't have won that game 99/100 times. Their finals inefficiency was consistent. The collapse culminated in the 2024 disaster season.

 

[Robertio]

Because they were unlucky.

Unlucky Viney coughed it up to Weitering who then kicked across ground and unlucky Hollands beat his opponent then unlucky when he found Doc who kicked it to the goal square and again unlucky that 4 Carlton players were on their own, give me a break.

 

[carlton_99]

Oh, OK.

What you wanted to hear was that there was absolutely no luck involved in that stretch of games.

Of course there was luck involved, as has been pointed out!

Every time an oval ball bounces there is an element of luck. However the poster said Carlton had done nothing except have a very lucky run in 2023. Being 15th in Round 15 and winning 11 of your last 12 games is not based on luck. The fact that Carlton won 22/28 games shows their best is more than good enough. Being more consistent within the season is the next step and the ways to achieve that has been discussed heaps by Carlton fans on here.

 

[Scotland]

With a bit of luck Carlton could go through 2025 undefeated.

 

[Fadge]

Every time an oval ball bounces there is an element of luck. However the poster said Carlton had done nothing except have a very lucky run in 2023. Being 15th in Round 15 and winning 11 of your last 12 games is not based on luck.

Carlton won 11 of their last 12 in 2023?

Which game doesn't count - the GWS loss or the Brisbane loss?

 

[JustaBattler]

You won two finals 11.8 to 9.14 then 11.7 to 9.17.

99 times out of 100 Melbourne win that semi.

Incorrect by definition - 100% of the time ANY team playing ANY other team that kick those scores come out with the same result.

WOW Amazingness huh?

 

[Fadge]

With a bit of luck Carlton could go through 2025 undefeated.

No, there would be no luck involved if that were to happen.

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton won 11 of their last 12 in 2023?

Which game doesn't count - the GWS loss or the Brisbane loss?

I was referencing my original comment which was games to make the PF. However, you love to go on and on about dead rubbers and the game V GWS was about dead rubber as it gets so maybe we can just forget that happened.

 

[Scotland]

Every time an oval ball bounces there is an element of luck. However the poster said Carlton had done nothing except have a very lucky run in 2023. Being 15th in Round 15 and winning 11 of your last 12 games is not based on luck. The fact that Carlton won 22/28 games shows their best is more than good enough. Being more consistent within the season is the next step and the ways to achieve that has been discussed heaps by Carlton fans on here.

The net result of your amazing (DVD worthy even) run is that you won 13 games for the H&A season and lost a prelim, which was backed up by winning 13 games in the H&A season and losing an elimination final after giving up a 60 point head start. So... congratulations?

 

[Fadge]

I was referencing my original comment which was games to make the PF. However, you love to go on and on about dead rubbers and the game V GWS was about dead rubber as it gets so maybe we can just forget that happened.

Feel free to forget that any of your losses ever happened if it means you overrate your list to the point you don't believe you need to materially improve it in order to contend for premierships...

 

[carlton_99]

Mental implosion. Back to back straight sets for those Dees.

Couldn't hit a barn door through those 4 finals. In that respect Carlton weren't even lucky (intra game) as Melbourne wouldn't have won that game 99/100 times. Their finals inefficiency was consistent. The collapse culminated in the 2024 disaster season.

Exactly its not luck when it's repeated. You only have to look at the QF Dees had against the Pies where they had a gazillion more inside 50s and couldn't convert.

 

[JustaBattler]

Unlucky Viney coughed it up to Weitering who then kicked across ground and unlucky Hollands beat his opponent then unlucky when he found Doc who kicked it to the goal square and again unlucky that 4 Carlton players were on their own, give me a break.

LUCKY - mate just "lucky" ...

 

[Robertio]

LUCKY - mate just "lucky" ...

It's like playschool mate.

 

[carlton_99]

The net result of your amazing (DVD worthy even) run is that you won 13 games for the H&A season and lost a prelim, which was backed up by winning 13 games in the H&A season and losing an elimination final after giving up a 60 point head start. So... congratulations?

You're starting to sound like some our Collingwood mates in the banter thread which is a good sign that there is no point attempting any sort of serious football discussion with you.

 

[carlton_99]

Feel free to forget that any of your losses ever happened if it means you overrate your list to the point you don't believe you need to materially improve it in order to contend for premierships...

I have provided my reasons why I think the list has not peaked in this thread. If you disagree with a specific point I made happy to discuss it.

 

[LoungeLizard]

You're starting to sound like some our Collingwood mates in the banter thread which is a good sign that there is no point attempting any sort of serious football discussion with you.

Remember when Collingwood won all those close games how lucky we were?

To get close in any game needs skill, but if you think there isn't luck involved in close games, you don't know footy.