Analysis Hawks 2022 Hypothetical trades (read the pinned post)

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When you think about the amount of resources that go into recruitment at the draft the failure rate is huge.
It's not really a failure, there just aren't that many kids out there with genuine star potential. The NBA has a far bigger pool of potential players, invests far more into their players prior to the draft through well funded systems, drafts them older and with more exposed form and even they go entire drafts without a star prospect.
 
The draft is a lottery, however as each year goes on clubs are getting better at learning from their own and other clubs mistakes.

Adelaide for example. Their first round selection history is DIRE. McAsey, Jones, McHenry just to name a few. So this season they are trading it for an established player so they don't botch another one.

Carlton is tragic. Took O'Brien and Dow both in the top 10 in 2017. We drafted Dylan Moore and James Worpel after our first selection came at pick 45.

We've faired quite well in recent times. Ward, Day, DGB, Maginness, Macdonald and Butler have all been top 30 selections and look likely best 22 players collectively within the next 12-24 months.
 
The draft is a lottery, however as each year goes on clubs are getting better at learning from their own and other clubs mistakes.

Adelaide for example. Their first round selection history is DIRE. McAsey, Jones, McHenry just to name a few. So this season they are trading it for an established player so they don't botch another one.

Carlton is tragic. Took O'Brien and Dow both in the top 10 in 2017. We drafted Dylan Moore and James Worpel after our first selection came at pick 45.

We've faired quite well in recent times. Ward, Day, DGB, Maginness, Macdonald and Butler have all been top 30 selections and look likely best 22 players collectively within the next 12-24 months.
Those guys have all been good but by far our biggest drafting master stroke has got to be nabbing Jai Newcombe in the MSD .
 
The draft is a lottery, however as each year goes on clubs are getting better at learning from their own and other clubs mistakes.

Adelaide for example. Their first round selection history is DIRE. McAsey, Jones, McHenry just to name a few. So this season they are trading it for an established player so they don't botch another one.

Carlton is tragic. Took O'Brien and Dow both in the top 10 in 2017. We drafted Dylan Moore and James Worpel after our first selection came at pick 45.

We've faired quite well in recent times. Ward, Day, DGB, Maginness, Macdonald and Butler have all been top 30 selections and look likely best 22 players collectively within the next 12-24 months.
Another case study in first round drafting disasters would be Melbourne pre-Petracca.
 
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It appears FAKE FOOTY has had a couple nibbles in this thread.

Would love to hear from some ITK's if there's anything else going on other than waiting for Bowes to come to a decision?
Don't get me wrong, love the 20 odd pages I read through today of "he's gone and people need to get used to it" followed by the five pages of "but how can we know if he's still doing tours", but it'd be neat to see if there's some insight going around the joint currently!
 
Also a lot of chirp in the media about Bowes touring Cats this morning, did he confirmed tour us in the arvo?

If so I look forward to another two days of the above.
 
What is the measure of success?
I’d venture 100+ games minimum. There’s heaps (mainly KPP) who have fallen well short and finished/currently at VFL level now

Examples IMHO of relative failure are Francis, Schache, Dow, Ahern, Scharenberg, Freeman, Jarrod Pickett, Marchbank, Cockatoo, Weidemann, Setterfield, Petrevski-Seton, Coffield, O’Brien.
 
It appears FAKE FOOTY has had a couple nibbles in this thread.

Would love to hear from some ITK's if there's anything else going on other than waiting for Bowes to come to a decision?
Don't get me wrong, love the 20 odd pages I read through today of "he's gone and people need to get used to it" followed by the five pages of "but how can we know if he's still doing tours", but it'd be neat to see if there's some insight going around the joint currently!
Keep this on the DL, but I've heard from a very reliable source that a major change is coming up in the next few days.

Apparently, we're well in talks to acquire a Lavazza coffee pod machine from the Harvey Norman on Lonsdale street.
Would open up the admin team to purchasing the Lavazza pods when they are on sale and not relying on Nescafe. Introduces a few new flavors that don't taste any different as well.

Just preliminary stuff, apparently Richmond and West Coast is also keen. Geelong has also been linked, aparently the delivery guy really loves the lifestyle.
 
The draft is a lottery, however as each year goes on clubs are getting better at learning from their own and other clubs mistakes.

Adelaide for example. Their first round selection history is DIRE. McAsey, Jones, McHenry just to name a few. So this season they are trading it for an established player so they don't botch another one.

Carlton is tragic. Took O'Brien and Dow both in the top 10 in 2017. We drafted Dylan Moore and James Worpel after our first selection came at pick 45.

We've faired quite well in recent times. Ward, Day, DGB, Maginness, Macdonald and Butler have all been top 30 selections and look likely best 22 players collectively within the next 12-24 months.
In the Premier League, Brighton & Hove Albion have concluded that junior academies are not worth the money.
They take too long, and it's a lottery.
They've decided to field a B team made of talented young players (late teens, early 20s) cut from other top teams and academies.
They put them through an intense program of games - because exposure to competition and playing minutes is what determines development + makes talent apparent. Most clubs cut a player before he's even had enough minutes of playing time to develop.

The results on a limited budget have been astounding.
Not just BHA's premier league results, but also the growing list of players they have been able to sell on for 10-20-30x profit within 1-3 years of signing them up. That gives them a growing pool of funds to re-invest in the club and more player development.

AFL system is probably the best given the smaller scale of the sport vs NBA, football etc
That also means we are stuck with it's imperfections.
 
I’m surprisingly (and stupidly) a little confident on getting Bowes. I’ve convinced myself that it was going to be Geelong, but we have swooped in and captured his heart and wallet, which is why the decision is taking some time.
 
i mean the Cats tend to get all the free agents, the only one in recent memory that they didnt get was Tom Lynch i think?, so i expect Bowes is being handed a paper bag and being charmed and courted like a super model at an F1 meet, likelihood he comes to us is low, unless we tell him he gets 1st preference in our midfield along with Newc and JOM? which could win him over as well as a good pay increase and terms and maybe he could turn into the next Will Brodie?.

as for other things happening, Tom Mitchell wants to goto Collingwood, but they seem to be trying to bait out a good deal for themselves by delaying the trade, media saying pick 27 might be on the table? im sure Collingwood will want a pick upgrade or something to make it work.

Gunston for a future 3rd is likely, Brisbane wont cough up too much, although getting a 2nd rounder would be great and at least what he is worth if he plays 3 more years

Meek has a contract and i think Freo wants a 2nd round pick, but usually rucks of his stature in the game go for 3rd rounders, so we'll see how that goes?
 
Keep this on the DL, but I've heard from a very reliable source that a major change is coming up in the next few days.

Apparently, we're well in talks to acquire a Lavazza coffee pod machine from the Harvey Norman on Lonsdale street.
Would open up the admin team to purchasing the Lavazza pods when they are on sale and not relying on Nescafe. Introduces a few new flavors that don't taste any different as well.

Just preliminary stuff, apparently Richmond and West Coast is also keen. Geelong has also been linked, aparently the delivery guy really loves the lifestyle.
This is why we pay you the big bucks, TSD7- great scoop!
 
i mean the Cats tend to get all the free agents, the only one in recent memory that they didnt get was Tom Lynch i think?, so i expect Bowes is being handed a paper bag and being charmed and courted like a super model at an F1 meet, likelihood he comes to us is low, unless we tell him he gets 1st preference in our midfield along with Newc and JOM? which could win him over as well as a good pay increase and terms and maybe he could turn into the next Will Brodie?.

as for other things happening, Tom Mitchell wants to goto Collingwood, but they seem to be trying to bait out a good deal for themselves by delaying the trade, media saying pick 27 might be on the table? im sure Collingwood will want a pick upgrade or something to make it work.

Gunston for a future 3rd is likely, Brisbane wont cough up too much, although getting a 2nd rounder would be great and at least what he is worth if he plays 3 more years

Meek has a contract and i think Freo wants a 2nd round pick, but usually rucks of his stature in the game go for 3rd rounders, so we'll see how that goes?
The Mitchell trade is by far the most interesting one yet everyone is stuck on Bowes.

Mitchell doesn't fit in our team or plans - but is a really good player - and will make Collingwood significantly better.

Wright swapped sides. He was part of the recruitment team that brought him to Hawthorn. Wrighty always paid "fair price" and tried to engender good will with trading partners. I wonder if he's still doing that?

I would say they want the Grundy deal done first so they can see their full deck of cards to play with, and do the Mitchell thing after that.
 
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