Preview Hawks vs the COLA $wans and the man they call Juda$ - it's the big dance.

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Flukey! said:
I am going to be in Dubai for this one.
Cannot wait.
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Grand final day barbecue at the Atlantis on the palm, you need to buy tickets, also an Aussie pub called Bidi Bondi at the base of Palm jumeriah will have it on, not sure if you need to buy tickets but probably do. Just in case you need some options, think tickets need to be purchased by the 22nd. :thumbsu:
 

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Echols said:
Just a few simple ones for me so far.

Leave some for me, you hog.
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All yours. I'll go into posting mode.

Check out the deletes and the IP.
 
Spangher could not get into the game today... But I think he will be more suited to playing Swans.

Buddy,Tippett,Reid,Goodes..Take your pick!

Ceglars spot is there for McEvoy depending how he performs tomorrow.

And either Simpkin or Suckling will get dropped for Cyril. Or drop both and bring in Sewell as well!
 
at least next week i wont have a supporter so stupid to be yelling in my ear "ROBBIIEEE GRAY WHOS ON HIM", everytime he got the ball, god i thought the bloke was a passionate hawks fan, i turn around, gee i was mistaken..

but then agian i may get a cola fan yelling out, GET BUDDY OFF.. Gibson and Lake the two men he couldnt beat.. MUAHAHA i cant wait.
 
Gene Simmons said:
Spangher could not get into the game today... But I think he will be more suited to playing Swans.

Buddy,Tippett,Reid,Goodes..Take your pick!

Ceglars spot is there for McEvoy depending how he performs tomorrow.

And either Simpkin or Suckling will get dropped for Cyril. Or drop both and bring in Sewell as well!
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Agree about Spang. If we had today's game over, I'd probably call for him to be dropped. But he's needed against the Swans as far as I'm concerned. Probably for Reid.
 

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Gene Simmons said:
Spangher could not get into the game today... But I think he will be more suited to playing Swans.

Buddy,Tippett,Reid,Goodes..Take your pick!

Ceglars spot is there for McEvoy depending how he performs tomorrow.

And either Simpkin or Suckling will get dropped for Cyril. Or drop both and bring in Sewell as well!
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Agreed.

Ins: McEvoy, Rioli, Sewell
Outs: Ceglar, Spangher, Suckling.

But Clarko loves Suckling and doesn't appear to see the Hollywood kicks or lack of intensity at a contest.
 
***Out on the full misses and rushed behinds haven't been excluded from the following data. Just assuming it's even enough for both teams to not skew results badly.***

Hawks have kicked 2721 points so far this season from 674 scoring shots. That's 4.037 points per scoring shot.

Swans have kicked 2355 points so far this season from 655 scoring shots. That's 3.595 points per scoring shot.

Hawks average 28 scoring shots a game and Swans average 27. Using those averages gives a score of 113 - 97.


Since the 2008 GF (including drawn 2010 GF) the winning GF side averages 24 scoring shots. The loser 23 (this number skewed by all the rushed behinds in 2008).

No team has won the GF by kicking more behinds than goals since West Coast did against Sydney in 2006. By 1 point.

You'd have to go back to 2001 to find a team that won a GF by kicking more behinds than goals over a team that kicked more goals than behinds. Brisbane 15.18 (108) def. Essendon 12.10 (82).

Hawthorn have kicked more goals than behinds in 22 games this season. They had equal in 1 game and more behinds in 1 game.

Sydney have kicked more goals than behinds in 10 games this season. They had equal in 2 games and more behinds in 10 games.

What's all that mean? That's up to you to decide.

To me it means that Sydney are going to need to kick accurately in front of goal. Something they've managed in just under half their games this season. And only against top 8 sides 3 times. Those 3 were Essendon, Geelong and Richmond. And if the points per scoring shot averages hold up then they will need to have about 13% more scoring shots than us. We average 26 scoring shots against the Swans in our 2 games this year. So they'll need to have about 29-30 scoring shots. Alternatively they could try holding us to less shots... our lowest for a game this year being 21 shots. We still average 24 scoring shots across our 5 losses this season though.
 
Unless Reid gets ruled out through injury....Spangher will play, and play well too, in a role he knows and has done multiple times against the Swans

Swans decision to name Reid (or even make out Reid will play) will have a massive bearing on team selection

Reid in Spangher in
Reid out Spangher out (Sizzle in)

Thats my gut feeling at this stage - we may change rucks (McEvoy for Ceglar - cant believe his really kept him out this long, i thought McEvoy was good in most games he played, but that is much of a muchness in the end.

Structurally both teams line ups will significantly change if Reid is out - and they may say his fine and he may come up, but i think it may be worse than what they are leading on for this purpose.
 
cryptor said:
***Out on the full misses and rushed behinds haven't been excluded from the following data. Just assuming it's even enough for both teams to not skew results badly.***

Hawks have kicked 2721 points so far this season from 674 scoring shots. That's 4.037 points per scoring shot.

Swans have kicked 2355 points so far this season from 655 scoring shots. That's 3.595 points per scoring shot.

Hawks average 28 scoring shots a game and Swans average 27. Using those averages gives a score of 113 - 97.


Since the 2008 GF (including drawn 2010 GF) the winning GF side averages 24 scoring shots. The loser 23 (this number skewed by all the rushed behinds in 2008).

No team has won the GF by kicking more behinds than goals since West Coast did against Sydney in 2006. By 1 point.

You'd have to go back to 2001 to find a team that won a GF by kicking more behinds than goals over a team that kicked more goals than behinds. Brisbane 15.18 (108) def. Essendon 12.10 (82).

Hawthorn have kicked more goals than behinds in 22 games this season. They had equal in 1 game and more behinds in 1 game.

Sydney have kicked more goals than behinds in 10 games this season. They had equal in 2 games and more behinds in 10 games.

What's all that mean? That's up to you to decide.

To me it means that Sydney are going to need to kick accurately in front of goal. Something they've managed in just under half their games this season. And only against top 8 sides 3 times. Those 3 were Essendon, Geelong and Richmond. And if the points per scoring shot averages hold up then they will need to have about 13% more scoring shots than us. We average 26 scoring shots against the Swans in our 2 games this year. So they'll need to have about 29-30 scoring shots. Alternatively they could try holding us to less shots... our lowest for a game this year being 21 shots. We still average 24 scoring shots across our 5 losses this season though.
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So essentially your saying the game will be on our once loved champion turned traitor enemy Buddies boot, if he is accurate we lose, if he produces the crap accuracy he use to do when he played for us than we win....2012 reversed hopefully....and the script every AFL follower deep down knew would happen on the 27th of Sept...with a few f... bombs and broken controllers along the way to make it happen
 
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xXDaOne2KillXx said:
So essentially your saying the game will be on our once loved champion turned traitor enemy Buddies boot, if he is accurate we lose, if he produces the crap accuracy he use to do when he played for us than we win....2012 reversed
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Well it comes down to a team effort. But I don't think it's any coincidence that Buddy leaves the Hawks and we become a very good team at kicking accurately whilst the opposite is achieved at the Swans. So perhaps not unfair to say that Sydney's result rests squarely on his conversion in front of goal. Something that bodes well for us given he hasn't kicked more goals than behinds in his two games against us this year. He's had more than enough scoring shots in both games to completely torch us however.
 
Lets do this Hawks. Today was a great hit out after a week off. It will serve as a wakeup and, unlike 2012, we have some older boys that will be pretty well rested (Stratts, Lake, Gibbo, Mitchell, Rioli) have all had extended breaks during the year. Hodgeys 250th, Gibbos 100th for the club, Back to back. So much motivation. Killem Hawks.
 
Saturday 27 September
Summary
partly-cloudy.png

Min 12
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Melbourne area
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds.

ewwwww shit weather again
 
Pedantic perhaps but reading the Connolly prediction article and this raised my eye...

http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/sydney-seems-set-to-take-another-flag-home-20140920-10juie.html

The history

Next Saturday will be Sydney's fourth grand final appearance in the past 10 seasons, with victory meaning a third premiership over that period. That would make it six flags for the Swans overall, half of them in the past decade, more proof that this is the club's golden age.
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Not bitter or anything but isn't this Saturday our 4th GF in 7 years, our third GF in succession, which is a far more impressive achievement than the Bloodz?

...or is Hawthorn success expected or something?
 
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