Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Saint]

I agree, but the reality is that almost every flag in the last fifteen years has been won with a top-five picked player leading the charge. Richmond (Dusty and Cotchin), Melbourne (Oliver and Petracca), Hawthorn (Buddy, Hodge and Roughead), the Dogs (Boyd and Bontempelli) and Collingwood (Pendlebury and Thomas, plus Cloke would have been top-five). The exceptions are Geelong, West Coast and Sydney - and even Geelong had Hawkins, who would have been taken in the top five had he not been F/S.

But realistically, what team doesn't have a couple of good top 5 draft picks on their list?

Even North Melbourne have LDU, as a top 5 pick.

Every team has top 5 picks in their best players. Carlton have a few of them leading their charge and didn't make the finals.

Hawks are tanking but also saying they're not. I think Sam Mitchell is convinced he'll find 3 Sam Mitchells/Jai Newcombs late in the draft and the Hawks are going to end up with 5 stocky mids from late picks who can't get a game.

 

[iameviljez]

But realistically, what team doesn't have a couple of good top 5 draft picks on their list?

Even North Melbourne have LDU, as a top 5 pick.

Every team has top 5 picks in their best players. Carlton have a few of them leading their charge and didn't make the finals.

Geelong, Brisbane (Rayner is still a cameo player), Hawthorn, Adelaide, Port, West Coast and North (let's face it, LDU is not great).

 

[Saab NLAW]

People have been a bit burned by the Melbourne experience. The club pushed Russell Robertson, Jeff White, Adam Yze, Brad Miller, Cam Bruce and James McDonald out the door around 2007 through 2009, and in the process the on-field leadership was decimated, and a whole heap of top-line talent (Morton, Watts, McLean, Sylvia, Trengrove, Scully, Toumpas) got absolutely torched.

More than half the Melbourne team that got smashed by 186 points in Geelong in 2011 had played fewer than 50 games.

• Brad Miller was just a bog average player, in his last year he averaged under 10 touches a game and kicked 10 goals, his stats at Richmond after leaving us were equally as poor. How can you play a CHF producing those efforts? His last year with us was 2010, outside of your date range.
• Cam Bruce was offered a contract but decided to leave and join the Hawks after the trading period meaning we received no compensation, not sure what you're suggesting we should have done there, no one showed him out the door, he made the decision to leave and join Clarkson.
• Yze was 31 in his final year with us and had struggled badly for 2 years. Sadly he was finished.
• Jeff White was also 31, he may have had another year in him, who knows. From memory 3 other clubs considered picking him up but no takers, he went to play country footy somewhere and retired a year later.
• Robbo...good old Robbo, he was great at trying to take mark of the century but a bloody frustrating player to watch after the ball hit the ground. Was 31 in his final year, onfield leadership? lol
• James McDonald's final year with us was in 2010, he was also 34 when we retired him. Nothing he did at GWS suggested we made the wrong decision, in fact the early days at GWS set up the culture of the place which they are now reaping the rewards for.

Players get old and retire, it happens, it was more of a case of bad list management. And the Geelong game was a direct result of club infighting between Bailey and Schwab/Connolly. To blame that on list management is inaccurate. I'd go into more details but it's off topic and would bore everyone to tears.

Not sure how all that is connected to this thread

 

[Saint]

Geelong, Brisbane (Rayner is still a cameo player), Hawthorn, Adelaide, Port, West Coast and North (let's face it, LDU is not great).

So I don't think there's really a correlation between teams with high draft picks and teams which are doing well. Of course good draft picks overall do better, but it's not a guarantee. Carlton are a good example, lots of good draft picks, still can't even make the finals. Essendon is the same.

 

[Saint]

• Brad Miller was just a bog average player, in his last year he averaged under 10 touches a game and kicked 10 goals, his stats at Richmond after leaving us were equally as poor. How can you play a CHF producing those efforts? His last year with us was 2010, outside of your date range.
• Cam Bruce was offered a contract but decided to leave and join the Hawks after the trading period meaning we received no compensation, not sure what you're suggesting we should have done there, no one showed him out the door, he made the decision to leave and join Clarkson.
• Yze was 31 in his final year with us and had struggled badly for 2 years. Sadly he was finished.
• Jeff White was also 31, he may have had another year in him, who knows. From memory 3 other clubs considered picking him up but no takers, he went to play country footy somewhere and retired a year later.
• Robbo...good old Robbo, he was great at trying to take mark of the century but a bloody frustrating player to watch after the ball hit the ground. Was 31 in his final year, onfield leadership? lol
• James McDonald's final year with us was in 2010, he was also 34 when we retired him. Nothing he did at GWS suggested we made the wrong decision, in fact the early days at GWS set up the culture of the place which they are now reaping the rewards for.

Players get old and retire, it happens, it was more of a case of bad list management. And the Geelong game was a direct result of club infighting between Bailey and Schwab/Connolly. To blame that on list management is inaccurate. I'd go into more details but it's off topic and would bore everyone to tears.

Not sure how all that is connected to this thread

Melbourne systematically cleared out their whole leadership team/older players. They decimated leadership in the list completely.

I would argue that the one thing clubs have needed to rebuild after decimating the list is not talent with high-end draft picks, but leadership. Carlton lack it, Essendon lack it. Geelong have lots, and bring more in. Collingwood have it. I think it's what holds Brisbane back at the business end of the season.

Success breeds it and failure kills it.

It's unbelievable that Hawthorn have got rid of their whole 2021 leadership group except for Worpel who struggled for a game. It's like zero value has been placed on the leadership qualities. If they lose 3 on the trot, or go 5 goals down in a quarter, who's going to bring them out of it mentally? Breust in the fwd pocket?

 

[Saab NLAW]

Melbourne systematically cleared out their whole leadership team/older players. They decimated leadership in the list completely.

I would argue that the one thing clubs have needed to rebuild after decimating the list is not talent with high-end draft picks, but leadership. Carlton lack it, Essendon lack it. Geelong have lots, and bring more in. Collingwood have it. I think it's what holds Brisbane back at the business end of the season.

Success breeds it and failure kills it.

It's unbelievable that Hawthorn have got rid of their whole 2021 leadership group except for Worpel who struggled for a game. It's like zero value has been placed on the leadership qualities. If they lose 3 on the trot, or go 5 goals down in a quarter, who's going to bring them out of it mentally? Breust in the fwd pocket?

Hawks were ridiculed for getting Mitchell and O'Meara, now the same thing is happening for getting rid of them

/shrug

 

[Saint]

Hawks were ridiculed for getting Mitchell and O'Meara, now the same thing is happening for getting rid of them

/shrug

Each one individually doesn't matter. Anyone critical of the Mitchell trade should have eaten their words. O'Meara they probably gave up too much in hindsight, but I guess the two trades even out.

Getting rid of three leaders at the same time as two retire is something completely different.

So the captain is accepted to be Sicily, who has only very recently matured from his previous issues with emotions on the field. If nobody can see this as a recipe for disaster, then they're wilfully blind. Even in the abortion-era, the Hawks kept on guys like Crawford for leadership more than on-field ability.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Why is this an actual thread?

Sam is clearly going to try and win games in 2023, he'll put the best team on the park and he'll entrust the youth to drive games, bring it home and do the whole lot, with the limited experience to guide it as best they can.

That's not tanking and it's clear as day.

Great decision by Sam and it'll benefit us in the future.

 

[hilly]

North (let's face it, LDU is not great).

lol

 

[theiaofseed]

Each one individually doesn't matter. Anyone critical of the Mitchell trade should have eaten their words. O'Meara they probably gave up too much in hindsight, but I guess the two trades even out.

Getting rid of three leaders at the same time as two retire is something completely different.

So the captain is accepted to be Sicily, who has only very recently matured from his previous issues with emotions on the field. If nobody can see this as a recipe for disaster, then they're wilfully blind. Even in the abortion-era, the Hawks kept on guys like Crawford for leadership more than on-field ability.

Hawthorn didn't get rid of Gunston and neither Gunston nor Mitchell were in the leadership group for 2022 due to Hawthorns restructuring. If you want to comment about Hawthorns leadership you should probably know who is and isn't apart of it.

 

[Saint]

Hawthorn didn't get rid of Gunston and neither Gunston nor Mitchell were in the leadership group for 2022 due to Hawthorns restructuring. If you want to comment about Hawthorns leadership you should probably know who is and isn't apart of it.

So they weren't leaders of the club at all then?

Just because somebody isn't in the leadership team doesn't mean they're not leaders. I saw Gunston directing forward traffic on many occasions.

You could appoint any 6 jo-blows to the leadership team (like Hawthorn will have to next year) it doesn't automatically make them leaders. And just because somebody's not in the leadership team doesn't mean they stop being a leader. You don't think the other mids looked up to the Brownlow Medallist in their midst?

 

[Golumless]

Think there's a difference between rebuilding and tanking.

Making list management decisions that preference the future over the now is merely a list management strategy. This is what Hawthorn appears to have done. Not without its risks either, can sometimes take 3-5 years to discover if your horde of draftees have what it takes, and if not then another rebuild beckons.

But tanking to me is making deliberate in game/pre-game decisions that undermine trying to win that weekend's match. So long as Hawthorn try and field sides close to their possible best, however weak that best may turn out to be. Then all okay by me.

There is tanking and tanking

Are the Hawks tanking ? Absolutely as they've put their list in a god-awful position for 2023 and are at a fundamental level, actively trying to lose. Are they tanking ? No, they're just doing it the afl-approved way and will at least try to win a few games instead of going 0-22, ditto Adelaide.

 

[hawkman]

So the captain is accepted to be Sicily, who has only very recently matured from his previous issues with emotions on the field. If nobody can see this as a recipe for disaster, then they're wilfully blind. Even in the abortion-era, the Hawks kept on guys like Crawford for leadership more than on-field ability.

Recently? It was about 4 years ago

 

[iameviljez]

Melbourne systematically cleared out their whole leadership team/older players. They decimated leadership in the list completely.

I would argue that the one thing clubs have needed to rebuild after decimating the list is not talent with high-end draft picks, but leadership. Carlton lack it, Essendon lack it. Geelong have lots, and bring more in. Collingwood have it. I think it's what holds Brisbane back at the business end of the season.

Yep, agreed. It's one of the reasons why GWS worked on-field and Gold Coast didn't.

One of the better moves Melbourne made was getting in Bernie Vince and Daniel Cross IMO.

 

[GWT6]

Hawthorne didn't get Roughead and Franklin by playing to win, and Collingwood has had some amazing mid season drop-offs.

The AFL won't do a thing. They punished Melbourne, then helped them out, to make it look like they care about tanking.
At least Melbourne players and coaches didn't tank, it was the match committee, senior management and board.

Carlton did it the most blatant and was never pulled up on it. Players were instructed to not win the Kruzer cup, they were told to not go near Travis Johnstone

Travis Johnstone

Age

44

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.6

4star

K

12.7

5star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.1

3star

No current season stats available

D

8.2

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.8

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

0.8

3star

, he got 42 touches and Carlton players were actually running away from him, Fev said he was benched because he was kicking too many goals in that game, and Libretore actually came out and said the coaching group was trying to lose, he got told to be quiet.

 

[Blackhawk42]

It's unbelievable that Hawthorn have got rid of their whole 2021 leadership group except for Worpel who struggled for a game. It's like zero value has been placed on the leadership qualities. If they lose 3 on the trot, or go 5 goals down in a quarter, who's going to bring them out of it mentally? Breust in the fwd pocket?

Are you up to date on the conversation regarding the leadership at Hawthorn? By this comment I'm going to suggest you aren't.

James Sicily became a genuine leader during his year off (2021) recovering from an ACL injury. He'll be named our next captain.
Sam 'flattened' the leadership group at the beginning of this season to allow leaders to emerge organically amongst the group. He's gone on record of naming Mitch Lewis and Dylan Moore in particular (two of our best players in 2022 and nearing their mid 20's) as the next generation of leadership at the Hawks, alongside names such as Scrimshaw, Jiath and Morrison (all approaching their mid 20's as well).

The leadership 'void' is just sitting there waiting for the new season to begin so these boys can fill it.

I haven't even named Blake Hardwick yet who is a quiet guy but very animated and vocal in defence on game day. Voted out most courageous player. His sets an example that his teammates follow.

 

[Stottzy]

Hawks were ridiculed for getting Mitchell and O'Meara, now the same thing is happening for getting rid of them

/shrug

Not only that, hardly anyone thought they were worth more than pick 40. But somehow getting rid of players you can't even get a 1st round pick for is tanking? People need to relax and turn off the SEN dribble.

 

[hawkman]

Hawthorne didn't get Roughead and Franklin by playing to win, and Collingwood has had some amazing mid season drop-offs.

If you had watched us in 04 you would have realised that we were awful. The only 2 teams we beat in the 2nd half of the season were the 2 teams tanking to get priority picks

 

[Saint]

An honest question to Hawks fans then. After finishing 13th this year, do you expect to finish higher in 2023, or even 2024?

Based on what would the team be getting better in 2023 than 2022? By virtue of younger players getting older. I'm just not sure there's anyone on the list who is All Australian level other than Sicily. It doesn't look like the ceiling is that much higher for the current playing list.

Mitch Lewis, will probably go another level again, but his competition for KPF (Cameron, Lynch, McKay, Curnow, Hawkins, Hipwood), it's highly unlikely he'd be AA contention.

None of Hawthorn's midfielders look like AA material and Hardwick and CJ weren't in contention this year and might have gone close to their own ceilings too.

When the coach is saying they don't want to just sneak into finals and doesn't want to put a time frame on when they will, that's not saying a lot which is very positive.

 

[iameviljez]

So I don't think there's really a correlation between teams with high draft picks and teams which are doing well. Of course good draft picks overall do better, but it's not a guarantee. Carlton are a good example, lots of good draft picks, still can't even make the finals. Essendon is the same.

My point is more so that without a high pick who becomes pretty much a superstar, it's very hard to win a flag. Not impossible, but very hard.

 

[hawkman]

An honest question to Hawks fans then. After finishing 13th this year, do you expect to finish higher in 2023, or even 2024?

Based on what would the team be getting better in 2023 than 2022? By virtue of younger players getting older. I'm just not sure there's anyone on the list who is All Australian level other than Sicily. It doesn't look like the ceiling is that much higher for the current playing list.

Mitch Lewis, will probably go another level again, but his competition for KPF (Cameron, Lynch, McKay, Curnow, Hawkins, Hipwood), it's highly unlikely he'd be AA contention.

None of Hawthorn's midfielders look like AA material and Hardwick and CJ weren't in contention this year and might have gone close to their own ceilings too.

When the coach is saying they don't want to just sneak into finals and doesn't want to put a time frame on when they will, that's not saying a lot which is very positive.

Expect a slight drop back in 2023 and then improvement again 2024.

There is plenty of improvement that can come from players that are still with the team just by getting everyone fit
Day played 17, Impey 16, Lewis 15, Ward and CJ 14, Frost and Reeves 12, Worpel 11 and Wingard 10. That is nearly half of the 1st choice team that missed a significant portion of the season.

It will be nice if we could just have 2 rucks fit. We were 5-1 with 2 rucks and 3-11 with 1 or no rucks. Most supporters are just hoping we never see Kosi or Nash ruck again. It gave an already poor midfield no chance when they were rucking

As for AA players not sure. The fact that Sicily couldn’t get in the team was laughable. Hardwick is your Maynard type that only gets noticed and picked by being in a good team no matter how he plays. Jiath could be one just because he can be flashy and commentators love talking about him (that is half the battle of trying to get noticed for the team). Moore wouldn't need to improve that much more to be in contention. Amon could be another one who could be a chance. Reeves could be a top ruck in the league.

The list manager said on radio that they have identified 10-12 players already on the list who they think we will be part of the next premiership team

 

[TFFM]

Hawthorn are a good football club that know how to win premierships.
Other teams are/should be envious about how to replicate it.
Confusing how some of these clubs are lecturing us on how to do it.

 

[The 747]

Hawthorn are a good football club that know how to win premierships.
Other teams are/should be envious about how to replicate it.
Confusing how some of these clubs are lecturing us on how to do it.

Interesting

 

[Hamingja]

That attitude has certainly served Carlton and Essendon well over the last 20 odd years

 

[GWT6]

If you had watched us in 04 you would have realised that we were awful. The only 2 teams we beat in the 2nd half of the season were the 2 teams tanking to get priority picks

"Second half of the season" - that was straight-up tanking.