Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Freomaniac]

Deciding to bottom out 7 years after a premiership is for sure an interesting strategy.

Let the Hawks hire Ross Lyon as coach and see what happens lol

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

An honest question to Hawks fans then. After finishing 13th this year, do you expect to finish higher in 2023, or even 2024?

Based on what would the team be getting better in 2023 than 2022? By virtue of younger players getting older. I'm just not sure there's anyone on the list who is All Australian level other than Sicily. It doesn't look like the ceiling is that much higher for the current playing list.

Mitch Lewis, will probably go another level again, but his competition for KPF (Cameron, Lynch, McKay, Curnow, Hawkins, Hipwood), it's highly unlikely he'd be AA contention.

None of Hawthorn's midfielders look like AA material and Hardwick and CJ weren't in contention this year and might have gone close to their own ceilings too.

When the coach is saying they don't want to just sneak into finals and doesn't want to put a time frame on when they will, that's not saying a lot which is very positive.

AA means almost nothing to Hawks fans. I know people love it and we all hope that our players get in the side every year, but ultimately it’s a quasi-fan voted media award. The only difference being that the fans that vote on it are ex-players and media commentators, but it’s the same thing when you see who’s voting and who then gets into the side from the club they support.

I think most of us Hawks fans think we’ll take a step back in 2023, we could even win the spoon if the Roos and Eagles pull their finger out, but there’s also a lot of players who have it all before them who could lift each other if they keep a clean bill of health, like Lewis, Day, CJ, Scrimshaw, Reeves, Moore and Newcombe, just as an example.
There’s also the way Mitchell had us playing for large parts of games in 2023(we took down the Cats and Lions, lost to Blues and Pies by a kick, and gave the a Dockers a fright at home) even with a number of key outs, so that might give some fans confidence that we won’t be abysmal, but of course the safe bet is that we’ll be beaten more often than not and take a step backwards in 2023.
One thing is certain, even with Tom and JOM in the middle we’ve been one of the worst performed midfields in the comp for the last 3 years so a fair slab of members welcome the change and the opportunity for a new group to build together.

2024 might might be a different story when the majority of players listed above will have either hit or surpassed 50 games, and a whole bunch of others like Ward, Butler, DGB, MacDonald, Blanck and Jeka have played over 25 games as well, but we’ll see how 2023 plays out before making any predictions on what 24 looks like.

Personally not going to miss Tom Mitchell constantly calling for the ball in bad positions and kicking helicopters into our forward line because he’s under pressure.

 

[Freomaniac]

Or, going back further, when Richmond sacked Kevin Bartlett in 1992, jettisoned lots of experience and made the finals in 1995, and then went on win 3 premierships less than 30 years later

Funny thing is Kevin Bartlett's 4 year coaching stint from 1989-1992 is forgotten.

Guys like Matty Knights and Wayne Campbell and Brendon gale got their 1st games under that period.

I have spoken about Richmond's 1990-2001 era. That side should of made finals in 1994-6 , 1998 and 2000-01.

Teams these days want improvement almost instantly.

Sometimes you need to back a coach to play the kids for 3-5 years to eventually get that 3-5 years finals run at the end of the rebuild.

 

[Freomaniac]

• Brad Miller was just a bog average player, in his last year he averaged under 10 touches a game and kicked 10 goals, his stats at Richmond after leaving us were equally as poor. How can you play a CHF producing those efforts? His last year with us was 2010, outside of your date range.
• Cam Bruce was offered a contract but decided to leave and join the Hawks after the trading period meaning we received no compensation, not sure what you're suggesting we should have done there, no one showed him out the door, he made the decision to leave and join Clarkson.
• Yze was 31 in his final year with us and had struggled badly for 2 years. Sadly he was finished.
• Jeff White was also 31, he may have had another year in him, who knows. From memory 3 other clubs considered picking him up but no takers, he went to play country footy somewhere and retired a year later.
• Robbo...good old Robbo, he was great at trying to take mark of the century but a bloody frustrating player to watch after the ball hit the ground. Was 31 in his final year, onfield leadership? lol
• James McDonald's final year with us was in 2010, he was also 34 when we retired him. Nothing he did at GWS suggested we made the wrong decision, in fact the early days at GWS set up the culture of the place which they are now reaping the rewards for.

Players get old and retire, it happens, it was more of a case of bad list management. And the Geelong game was a direct result of club infighting between Bailey and Schwab/Connolly. To blame that on list management is inaccurate. I'd go into more details but it's off topic and would bore everyone to tears.

Not sure how all that is connected to this thread

You made a solid post here.

A pity about Russell Robertson because he did do his knee or ACL late in his career.

Saying that... Getting rid of 6 blokes aged 30 or over weakens the side considerably. I reckon at least 2 or maybe even 3 should of been given one more year, even if they played 5-10 games the next season.

Freo did a similar thing back in 2008 with Peter Bell, Shaun McManus, Jeff farmer, Matt Carr all were 31 or 32.

Josh Carr was 28 and walked out and went back to Port Adelaide.

Freo went 6 wins and 16 losses

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Let the Hawks hire Ross Lyon as coach and see what happens lol

We’ll leave that to you and St Kilda thanks. You guys can poach him back from them in a few years - will add a nice retro round feel to the competition.

 

[Saint]

Funny thing is Kevin Bartlett's 4 year coaching stint from 1989-1992 is forgotten.

Guys like Matty Knights and Wayne Campbell and Brendon gale got their 1st games under that period.

I have spoken about Richmond's 1990-2001 era. That side should of made finals in 1994-6 , 1998 and 2000-01.

Teams these days want improvement almost instantly.

Sometimes you need to back a coach to play the kids for 3-5 years to eventually get that 3-5 years finals run at the end of the rebuild.

But more often than not, the tactic results in 3-5 years of not much and then still at the bottom for the next 3-5 years.

I think the main problem for Hawthorn is that they stuffed the timing. These players had more value last year. Instead they've waited until their value has bottomed out and then let them all go. PLUS, they don't have a decent draft hand this year. I guess the mistake was made last year and this year is them taking their medicine.

Had they traded Gunston and Mitchell last year, they might have been able to at least improve their draft hand. What they've ended up with is the worst of both worlds.

 

[hawkman]

But more often than not, the tactic results in 3-5 years of not much and then still at the bottom for the next 3-5 years.

I think the main problem for Hawthorn is that they stuffed the timing. These players had more value last year. Instead they've waited until their value has bottomed out and then let them all go. PLUS, they don't have a decent draft hand this year. I guess the mistake was made last year and this year is them taking their medicine.

Had they traded Gunston and Mitchell last year, they might have been able to at least improve their draft hand. What they've ended up with is the worst of both worlds.

No one asked about them last year in a meaningful way. The only 2 we got offers for were Breust and Wingard and they wanted to stay. Gunston was coming off a serious back injury so had no value anyway

 

[Freomaniac]

But more often than not, the tactic results in 3-5 years of not much and then still at the bottom for the next 3-5 years.

I think the main problem for Hawthorn is that they stuffed the timing. These players had more value last year. Instead they've waited until their value has bottomed out and then let them all go. PLUS, they don't have a decent draft hand this year. I guess the mistake was made last year and this year is them taking their medicine.

Had they traded Gunston and Mitchell last year, they might have been able to at least improve their draft hand. What they've ended up with is the worst of both worlds.

Well you look back at 2018 when they made top 4 but got out in straight sets. You look back at it, it was a false dawn.

Just look at the Wingard trade in 2018. Traded a young defender in Ryan Burton and a 1st rounder for Wingard.

In a way that was a bit of a bad move. Could of got a gun kid in 2018, and that bloke would be in his prime at 24-25 years old.

Funny how they traded in 2 young mids around the same time and traded them both this season.

 

[Saint]

Well you look back at 2018 when they made top 4 but got out in straight sets. You look back at it, it was a false dawn.

Just look at the Wingard trade in 2018. Traded a young defender in Ryan Burton and a 1st rounder for Wingard.

In a way that was a bit of a bad move. Could of got a gun kid in 2018, and that bloke would be in his prime at 24-25 years old.

Funny how they traded in 2 young mids around the same time and traded them both this season.

If you make the top 4, you've gotta keep pushing for it, it just didn't work out for them as too many dropped away and yes, they paid overs for Wingard, but that's only clear in hindsight.

No coach is going to finish top 4 and convince the board they should bottom out. Only in hindsight would that have been the right decision. Geelong could very easily have ended up that way too, but it went the other way for them as their older players had better longevity, which is pretty unpredictable.

 

[Saab NLAW]

You made a solid post here.

A pity about Russell Robertson because he did do his knee or ACL late in his career.

Saying that... Getting rid of 6 blokes aged 30 or over weakens the side considerably. I reckon at least 2 or maybe even 3 should of been given one more year, even if they played 5-10 games the next season.

Freo did a similar thing back in 2008 with Peter Bell, Shaun McManus, Jeff farmer, Matt Carr all were 31 or 32.

Josh Carr was 28 and walked out and went back to Port Adelaide.

Freo went 6 wins and 16 losses

Agree with all that, and to be clear i'm not trying to defend Melbourne, we ****ed up in the most major way possible, no doubt about it. But that is completely different to the current Hawks situation, they are nowhere near as bad as we were.

The main reason for my contribution to this thread was make the point that the Hawks had been ridiculed for taking those players, now they're getting the same comments for moving them on. I don't know their list well enough, and Sam Mitchell is no Neeld, I find it difficult to believe that he wouldn't be doing this without having a clear plan for leadership with the team.

It will be intriguing watching them over the next couple of years

 

[AstonSouffle]

Why do teams have a problem with tanking anyway?

It will always exist because of how the draft works, and realistically unless you support the team directly that's tanking why should it bother you?

Not to mention every team that has made the decision to the tank has taken a significant amount of time to come good, and even then it wasn't the sole reason they became good (see Melbourne), then you've got the others like Carlton who still haven't come good but might make finals next year.

What I'm saying is that the decision to tank and the self-inflicted punishment being cast down the ladder for an age is more than enough, so the AFL really shouldn't be stepping in and punishing them (nor providing priority picks).

*Unless gambling has played a part in your decision-making.

 

[kozi]

Deciding to bottom out 7 years after a premiership is for sure an interesting strategy.

Got nothing on Carlton bottoming out 23 years after a premiership

 

[Lia]

That's what North said before and during the start of the David Noble era.

I think Hawthorn may have bitten off more than they can chew

True, but I think as a club legend Sam will get more leeway from members and admin, even if things go way south.

 

[danster168]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ******* AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

Dude, every club down the bottom tanks. My club got an unfair wrap for tanking based on our tanking years but every team has either a) tanked or b) would tank if they were a bottom 2/4 team.

Nothing will happen to Hawthorn.

 

[Freomaniac]

If you make the top 4, you've gotta keep pushing for it, it just didn't work out for them as too many dropped away and yes, they paid overs for Wingard, but that's only clear in hindsight.

No coach is going to finish top 4 and convince the board they should bottom out. Only in hindsight would that have been the right decision. Geelong could very easily have ended up that way too, but it went the other way for them as their older players had better longevity, which is pretty unpredictable.

Depends on the situation. Some teams finish top 4 one year and make a preliminary final, then the next year they make the grand final and possibly won the flag.

Some teams drop out the finals the next season too with a tougher draw, injuries and close losses

 

[4Seasons]

Hawthorn benefited greatly from the old priority pick system, along with Fremantle being stupid enough to trade pick 1 in possibly the greatest draft of all time which everyone knew was going to be a superdraft.

With the old priority pick system gone, along with the draft order being diluted by academy bidding, father son bidding and free agency compensation picks, it's hard to see Hawthorn getting access to the same kind of draft capital that assisted them greatly in being able to rebuild their side so successfully at the start of the Clarkson era.

It's going to take a lot longer for them to build a side this time around, and their fans have to be patient and willing to accept this.

Fremantle weren’t as stupid as some people claim.
For that trade they got McPharlin, who went on to be the third best player in the club’s history.

He might not have Hodges flags, but McPharlin was an undisputed champion, you can’t trade that quality in for free.

That trade was a win/win.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Hawthorn won't be anywhere close to flag over the next decade, which will destroy their notoriously fair weather supporter base

Fairweather from a Richmond Fan

Pathetic

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Deciding to bottom out 7 years after a premiership is for sure an interesting strategy.

Better then bottoming out after a semi final loss

 

[BIGHAWK23]

True, but I think as a club legend Sam will get more leeway from members and admin, even if things go way south.

Especially with relatively recent success

 

[Milanista28]

That attitude has certainly served Carlton and Essendon well over the last 20 odd years

We never tank, we actually out perform our true position too much, so often mid table and lower part of the 8 is horrible.

 

[HBFlanker]

Its a bold strategy as it could alienate players who are in their mid to late twenties. You are basically saying you will never play in a successful team.

They will finish 18th next season, no doubt about it. This is North in 2017 when they cut so deep.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

That's what North said before and during the start of the David Noble era.

I think Hawthorn may have bitten off more than they can chew

Difference is north Melbourne were relying on the old heads to win them games when they were pushed out the door. Hawthorn has not. It's been the younger players stepping up.
Will there be holes to fill? Of corse. It's not as dire though

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Its a bold strategy as it could alienate players who are in their mid to late twenties. You are basically saying you will never play in a successful team.

They will finish 18th next season, no doubt about it. This is North in 2017 when they cut so deep.

Plenty of doubt about it. North are still terrible. WCE are still terrible. GWS have lost better players.

 

[Hamingja]

We never tank, we actually out perform our true position too much, so often mid table and lower part of the 8 is horrible.

I wasn't referring to tanking, I was referring to the post above mine which essentially said Hawthorn know how to win premierships so they will keep doing it. Carlton and Essendon both stuck on 16 premierships for a long time now since their traditional know how no longer works in the modern game.

 

[HBFlanker]

Plenty of doubt about it. North are still terrible. WCE are still terrible. GWS have lost better players.

North will improve under Clarko and a healthy Cunnington. WCE will win a few more with a healthier list and GWS still have enough talent there.

Hawks and Saints will be bottom two for mine.