Review Hawthorn v Cats - match sim - Thursday 23rd Feb, GMHBA

[Brant]

The area of Hawthorn where the alarm bells are ringing

Michael Barlow has some serious concerns about Hawthorn heading into the upcoming season.

www.sen.com.au

Holy sh1t...
Did you guys know that our midfield, that's underperformed for about the last 6+ seasons & just lost its 2x most senior/effective members, might be a concern?

It's this insight that makes me thankful for professional journalists!

 

[Fetnarr]

Hawks Insiders gives a platform for Bradkli so I steer clear of it. HawkTalk Pod or bust imo.

It’s had some great interviews with Peter Burge and Rob McCartney recently. Now that I know it’s Bradkli I will just ignore everything he says! I think the others on there are generally pretty good


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[badgrill]

This board will have written off and delisted half our list by Round 1.

Or we smash the Pies next week and we're finals bound again.

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[FB19]

Caddy AND Reid will make the pain worthwhile.

Fify.

 

[The hands of stone]

Holy sh1t...
Did you guys know that our midfield, that's underperformed for about the last 6+ seasons & just lost its 2x most senior/effective members, might be a concern?

It's this insight that makes me thankful for professional journalists!

Its up there with David King attending one of our training sessions and his observation was ' we looked very young'

 

[FB19]

The thing that jumped out was the cats positioning they didn’t get drawn into the contest with too many numbers and once we turned it over they were both in the right place and ran to the right spots. That’s the main reason we will finish low down this year we need time to learn the game plan, not kick chase, just gain the performance leap you get from 50+ games experience. We are on the right path and we have good individual talent but need time to gel. Key to me is to limit the list turnover now and have this group build together. 2 x first rounders and will McCabe will do nicely.

 

[Gut Runner]

A lot of people have talked up Finn's game. I'll have to look more closely and watch Finn against the Pies - TBH I didn't really notice him watching the game.

I guess that means not as many mistakes though as one tends to note the good and bad rather than the basics.

 

[Gut Runner]

The thing that jumped out was the cats positioning they didn’t get drawn into the contest with too many numbers and once we turned it over they were both in the right place and ran to the right spots. That’s the main reason we will finish low down this year we need time to learn the game plan, not kick chase, just gain the performance leap you get from 50+ games experience. We are on the right path and we have good individual talent but need time to gel. Key to me is to limit the list turnover now and have this group build together. 2 x first rounders and will McCabe will do nicely.

It also seemed we were determined to kick into the corridor no matter what. Possibly instructed to take that center option at all times.

Smitch might use that to find out who the better ball users and decision makers are.

Personally, I would like to see a switch to the other side of the ground and then try for the middle if no options present.

 

[Mercy Seat]

It’s had some great interviews with Peter Burge and Rob McCartney recently. Now that I know it’s Bradkli I will just ignore everything he says! I think the others on there are generally pretty good


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Yes I have to defend Hawks Insiders and say that they mostly do a really good job, get great interviews that are particularly relevant to the workings of the club (particularly through the election period), and overall are pretty well informed, passionate supporters. Ash Brown who is a footy journalist is one of the best in the business.

I get the Bradkli criticism, however, I don’t mind hearing counter views as it leads to good debate, rather than just all one-way traffic. They don’t let him get away with anything too stupid.

 

[peetoo]

Great observation by Barlow there .........just 3-4 seasons late and why we are rebuilding playing kids through the midfield

And people get paid for that !

Another observation. General watchers ma not be familiar with the hawthorn midfielders, but commentators are paid to know that. Anyone listening to Barlow on Thursday could be forgiven for thinking he spent the game drooling over geelong

 

[Jazzfan]

I think people shouldn't get too stressed about the media this year.

I'm not expecting much positive attention. That's just part of the cycle when you're down, rebuilding and pretty much off-broadway.

Just have thick skin and enjoy a developmental 2023. The best teams will generate the most positive attention even during in game commentary, our time will come again.

 

[peetoo]

I think people shouldn't get too stressed about the media this year.

I'm not expecting much positive attention. That's just part of the cycle when you're down, rebuilding and pretty much off-broadway.

Just have thick skin and enjoy a developmental 2023. The best teams will generate the most positive attention even during in game commentary, our time will come again.

True but they have favourites, regardless of ladder position.

Watch out for ‘Rossy Lyons’ team this year

 

[TylerDurden]

True but they have favourites, regardless of ladder position.

Watch out for ‘Rossy Lyons’ team this year

Agree. But they are loving us in the bottom 4.

 

[Alite]

Complete over analysis of a Match-simulation, where two teams had different goals: (Watched the first six "quarters", bits of the last two)

Position

Clearances: (Reeves/Meek/Lynch, Day, Newcombe, Worpel, Ward, Nash, Maginness) We didn't set up well to take advantage of Reeves tap dominance. I didn't notice Meek or later Lynch as much, but Reeves probably won 90% of the "fair" bounces (a lot of bad bounces were let go). Newcombe stands his opponent, pushes off and is already on the move as the rucks tap the ball - one reason I believe he is able to break so many tackles when he wins the ball - he already has momentum. He can stand an extra 2-3m from the contest as he moves in to the contest. Day was superb as defensive side sweeper, best stint on-ball I've seen from him, using his acceleration and vision to change direction. He seemed to be drawing the most defensive attention at the bounce, but perhaps this was as he was looking for space, not to compete physically like Newk. Worpel tends to stand clear of his opponent, then engages as the ball is bounced. This leaves him flat footed so when he does get the ball he is immediately under pressure. I felt it worked better with Ward (moving) or a bigger body there IMO - we looked far better once Nash and also Maginness took their rotations.

Offensive Transition: (Moore, Wingard, Macdonald, Amon, Impey, Scrimshaw). Amon gives us something we've lacked - his touch was fantastic, and already seems to have developed a connection with Wingard. Offensively we struggled to link up, with Geelong's defensive positioning consistently giving them numerical advantage. In the entire game we managed maybe a dozen clean entries - cutting back from HBF to the middle, overlap running to give us clear space to lead into. It was very obvious we were kicking low and angular to minimise Geelong's ability to intercept - so many kicks fell 2-5m short or were so slow as to lose the advantage. Similarly, we used forward handball and RUN to open up the play. The fluidity needed for this tactic to work will hopefully come with practice. The "dump" kicks forward were much less - and almost universally due to pressure requiring quick disposal. Impey and Wingard gave us good run early then seemed to disappear. Not sure if fitness or minute management; or Geelong tightening up on them.

Forwards: (Greene, Kosi, Butler, Rucks). Less said the better. Greene looked very good on the lead, constantly finding space at speed. Kosi looked hampered physically - and a few times seemed to be out of the contest mentally. Previously he's excelled when "the main man" and allowed to lead - hopefully just a case of a very good zone defence taking all his space. Butler was lively without being that dangerous, but felt we burned a lot of ball across half-forward and were poor at the contest and on turnover.

Defensive Transition: (HF/Midfield)
Defensively, we were a mess. Very disorganised, and seemed to be caught between attempting to pressure the disposal, and giving some defensive coverage. Too often Geelong just played "checkers" down the field, constantly having an open man to release too forward of the ball. Clarkson always had defensive patterns settled first, then worked an attacking plan from defence. Mitchell seems to want to play in our midfield/forward line, but with so many aggressively-orientated players we were overcommitting and on turnover getting badly exposed.

Defence: (Blank, Frost, Sicily, DGB, Hardwick etc)
Despite the scoreline, I though our defenders were good when "at the contest". Geelong are brilliant at boxing our the drop zone, allowing one player to mark almost uncontested as the rest block their opponent. I didn't feel this happened a great deal, as our issues all stemmed from the (lack of) midfield pressure, allowing Geelong players forward of the ball. Our defenders positioned themselves aggressively, playing in front of their opponent. There was very little team-work, with Geelong (as always) exceptional at keeping space in matchups. The ball came in so quickly and "over the top" that for the most part the aggressive positioning was misplaced. Some (Sicily, Hardwick, Scrimshaw at times) coped better than others by backing themselves in. DGB (first positive comment, there will be a few) got better every minute of the game.

Player Thoughts:
Morrison - DNP
Lewis - DNP
Newcombe - Says a lot about how good he is that a good game is just "expected".
Impey - Speed and balance, two things we didn't see last year. I've been a critic and not seen "it" in him, leaving him out of my 22. I still think he's borderline, and worried he wasn't as prominent after the early burst, but hopeful.
Worpel - At the first bounce I went to look up who was in #5 as I couldn't remember. Says a lot about where Worpel is at, as looked like he couldn't remember how to football either. Need to find a way to clear his head, he is slow and reactionary - like he's thinking instead of just doing. Simplify his role, clear his head and we may see 2019 again, but it's looking more and more unlikely.
Sicily - Blew out the cobwebs. Competed well, had a run around, got a few kicks. Compare him to Stewart who dominated his section of the field in the same role for Geelong. Expect far more from our captain.
Reeves - Typical Reeves game. Dominated taps, which the midfield didn't take advantage of, but did nothing around the ground. Up forward always seemed 5m off the play - still adjusting to the new role, or just not capable of playing KPF. Disappointing he was manhandled regularly without reward, then when he used physicality it was penalised. Has started the "watching-his-opponent-rather-than-the-ball" technique so ingrained in Hawthorn rucks through our recent history. You are tall, back yourself to get to the ball first.
Frost - His desperation saved a handful of goals, even when outnumbered on the last line. Coped better than most left isolated, but with all our KPD, was fighting an impossible battle.
CJ - Did he play? I genuinely can't remember seeing him now.
Amon - Smooth as silk. Watching him was how people described Impey when he first came across. Covers the ground, beautiful disposal - already linking up well with Wingard. I felt a number of times we ignored him in space wide for easier disposal options. Will spend more time in the square in our team than Port, but IMO is best used as an aggressive linkman off the wing. Didn't notice him defensively, which in a team so over-run on turnover could be either good (was covering his man), or bad (not in the same postcode).
Nash - Typical Nash game, did some good things, seemed to have embraced the "just get it to a teammate in space, anyway you can" mantra with lots of dinky around the corner kicks. Isn't suited to playing wing/outside, despite his speed/endurance is best at the contest.
Day - For mine one of the best games he's played. That attacking role sweeping off the back of the contest allows him to utilise his acceleration, and he's genuinely dual-footed (for 2023). He gets hit a lot as he takes the game on, but hopefully his body is now at the point he can withstand the hits better, and his aggressive mindset gets team-mates into space.
Moore - Hit the scoreboard, worked hard. Industrious hard-working player who I can't quite work out how he does it. Maybe destined to spend more time forward, as our new aggressive gameplan will require lots of defensive running coverage from HF.
Scrimshaw - Bad Jack. My grandma has a better handball, and she's been dead 15 years. Cannot question his toughness in the air, he will back into the unknown pack without hesitation - but will offload to anyone (no-one) at the slightest hint of a tackle. Has he been paired with Newcombe or Nash in training or something? Seemed to struggle with conversion from mark-kick to run-n-gun from defence, achieving neither. He needs to be a deeper/wider option, releasing by foot up the wings.
Hardwick - At his best goes completely unnoticed. I barely noticed him apart from being stepped once, and a blind clearing kick to a nest of Cats. Like his captain, given a pass for miles in the legs.
Bramble - Was in a lot early from HBF - our new run'n'gun rebound style should suit him. Is one I haven't rated previously, so was pleasantly surprised, especially as he showed some hardness defensively to neutralise a couple of contests I haven't noticed previously.
Meek - Geelong's rucks are all mobile and physical, Meek seemed to spend an inordinate amount of time up forward where he was ineffectual. When rucking around the ground he was a physical presence after the contest, but didn't offer much in the ruck itself.
Lynch -
Wingard - I think he will love what Amon gives our midfield, and just hope he has the fitness and can give us an injury free season.
Stephens - DNP
Breust - DNP
Koschitzke - Had a genuine chance to stamp himself as our FF, but put in one of his worst performances. He's always struggled as the second/third forward, but competed well when numero uno. Yesterday he didn't even compete.
DGB - I've been a huge critic, (mainly due to spending so much draft capital) but as the game wore on, and he matched up against VFL opponents he rose to prominence. Still too small, slow and way too light to play that role at AFL - but there was more than a flicker of potential there. Perhaps he has finally reached the baseline fitness required to play a game competitively.
Ward - Plays like a prime midfielder already, fits in well with Newk and is comfortable with the physical aspects of the role, always distributes well and makes good choices. I'm confident he is going to be a solid B-grader at worst. What a difference access to top level talent makes.
Greene - Who would have thought a fast, fit, strong leading forward would do well in an AFL system? He can play 100 games of AFL like that and have a strong career despite a later start.
Long - Not a liability at AFL level, and as the standard dropped to VFL he got better and better. Is noticeably quicker than last year, and with his big body gives flexibility around the ground. Amusing how often he and Ward end up in the same combination - you can tell they've spent a lot of gametime together.
Mackenzie - DNP
Serong - DNP
Butler - Pace, aggression, hard at the contest. Small and light but his efforts overcome those limitations. Another who started brightly then faded - not sure if his opponent tightened up, or he just couldn't find the same space as our system started to falter.
Macdonald - I honestly forgot about him until the 3rd quarter when he was prominent in a few plays across HF. The video with Hale telling him to focus more on getting dangerous than just getting touches is telling.
Maginness - Released from tagging responsibilities, and gave us a bit of drive. Like Nash, his best play seems at the contest, rather than around it - suggesting a centre-square mid rather than wing (despite his running prowess).
Brockman - held back for the VFL game, was clearly a step above in talent. Another others have raved about and I have been cautious, he has the talent and unique abilities to be a good AFL player, just needs to find a way to stay involved.
O'Hara - assume he DNP, but still don't really know who he is.
Morris - DNP
Blanck - The extra couple of seasons are obvious compared to DGB, and Blanck is much better when standing shoulder-to-shoulder. Struggled with the aggressive positioning, was too slow to adjust back to his opponent on the (regular) turnovers and caught 5m off the contest. For someone who offers little offensively, I would be more comfortable him just keeping the opposition FF quiet.
Weddle - Clear he hasn't been a winger before. Didn't seem to know how to get involved, and give his team-mates options. Think he's far more comfortable as a HBF but uncertain about his disposal. Can see the comparison to Blicavs - taking an athlete and finding a position for him to excel.
Ramsden - Don't remember him playing?
Jeka - Looked GOOD as a leading forward later in the game, gave us something we had missed with Kosi's poor showing. Still behind Greene for the 3rd forward, but with Lewis out and Kosi struggling we need someone to give us a target. I'm a fan from what I saw at Box Hill a few seasons back.
Mitchell - Don't remember him playing?
Bennetts - Think it was him throwing himself into a couple of contests in the forward line? By the time he was on I wasn't paying that much attention.
B.MacDonald - First look, I didn't notice like others have but guessing he did plenty late after I'd lost interest.
O'Sullivan - Impressed a couple of times, he has a desperation about him and surprising physicality.
Hustwaite - Lovely handskills, his "evasion while standing still" makes me think of Pendlebury. I read he is a long way short of fitness required, and didn't notice his kicking but he looks very comfortable in tight congestion manipulating space around himself and backing himself to find good options under physical pressure.

Excellent post… I concur.

As you suspected, Ramsden did not play
Seamus Mitchell played a solid game in the back pocket from periods 4 to 7?. He would have picked up around 15 possessions and linked up well. Edit: Simmo says “I think he had high-30 possessions.”
BMac showed his speed including an eye catching run from half back, past a few Cats who could not keep up, to have a shot from 45m … unfortunately he missed.

 

[cryptor]

I've been thinking about the simulation. I wonder if we purposely shook up the backline to allow goals to be scored so that we had more centre bounce practice.

tbh I did have the thought in the first period that Newcombe appeared to be actively seeking to be tackled with the ball just so he could practice breaking tackles or make his disposal while being tackled. At one point he looked to ignore giving it off just so he could turn back into the contest again.

These pre-season games/simulations against real opponents are gold for being able to practice things without consequence.

 

[KermitJagger]

tbh I did have the thought in the first period that Newcombe appeared to be actively seeking to be tackled with the ball just so he could practice breaking tackles or make his disposal while being tackled. At one point he looked to ignore giving it off just so he could turn back into the contest again.

These pre-season games/simulations against real opponents are gold for being able to practice things without consequence.

In the first quarter, when he got caught in D50, the only reason he got caught was because absolutely no one was moving for him. Every Hawk around him was just standing still.

 

[James Colorado]

2022 - Ranking amongst key defenders, the 27-year-old is number one in player ratings, disposals, uncontested possessions, metres gained, marks, rebound 50s, inside 50s and score involvements as well as second in intercept possessions.

He was the premier defender last season and your statement will receive the derision and disdain that it deserves.

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Yes, but the AA selectors deserve more derision and disdain.

 

[CHUBBSS]

Yes, but the AA selectors deserve more derision and disdain.

I find it funny when awards are clearly decided on wrong it make said award less relevant and all the selectors did was further cement the view they play favourites and have no clue which in turn makes every future selection less relevant.

In short **** em

 

[James Colorado]

I find it funny when awards are clearly decided on wrong it make said award less relevant and all the selectors did was further cement the view they play favourites and have no clue which in turn makes every future selection less relevant.

In short * em

The best defender in the comp last season, but doesn't play for one of the current "it" teams, hence a very poor snub.

 

[TAITA]

The best defender in the comp last season, but doesn't play for one of the current "it" teams, hence a very poor snub.

I read somewhere that only 6 times since comprehensive stats have been compiled has a player had more than 10 acts in 3 particular disciplines. 2 of those where intercept marking and pressure acts or 1%ers, the third slips my mind.

Of those 6 occasions, Sis achieved 3 of them in 2022. He completed 50% of the perfect 3-3-3 in modern footy in a year coming off a reco.

On SM-F936B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HedgeFund]

2022 - Ranking amongst key defenders, the 27-year-old is number one in player ratings, disposals, uncontested possessions, metres gained, marks, rebound 50s, inside 50s and score involvements as well as second in intercept possessions.

He was the premier defender last season and your statement will receive the derision and disdain that it deserves.

On SM-F936B using BigFooty.com mobile app

The “premier defender in the competition” who didn’t get selected in the AA. Righto.

Here’s a stat - in 2022 he had 190 marks, 158 were uncontested. We kick it to him a lot when he is free.

You really need a Snickers

 

[SSSSSS]

I read somewhere that only 6 times since comprehensive stats have been compiled has a player had more than 10 acts in 3 particular disciplines. 2 of those where intercept marking and pressure acts or 1%ers, the third slips my mind.

Of those 6 occasions, Sis achieved 3 of them in 2022. He completed 50% of the perfect 3-3-3 in modern footy in a year coming off a reco.

On SM-F936B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sicily's season was a statistical outlier when compared to previous KPDs before him.
One of the all time great snubs. Was farcical.

 

[kirbatron]

The “premier defender in the competition” who didn’t get selected in the AA. Righto.

Here’s a stat - in 2022 he had 190 marks, 158 were uncontested. We kick it to him a lot when he is free.

You really need a Snickers

what is Stewart's ratio if u can be bothered?

 

[FactsNotBS]

Consider this - if you gave DGB or Frost the licence to play the way Scrimshaw plays (ie. pretty loose and never on a KPF) would they produce greater offensive output? I think the answer is it’s highly likely.

If you instructed Jack to play on a KPD and stick to him as tight as possible (lock down / defend) what do you think the chances would be that he’d be able to do that job? I’m not sure he would be able to do that effectively.

I think you’re comparing different players here and they’re not interchangeable.

If we have a fully available back 6 (+ 1) then Jack can, and should, play as a 3rd tall / hybrid forward.

Nah! Sorry Hedge!

Scrim destroyed Norton v Bulldogs last year when called upon to play a KPD role. In one contest, Scrim took probably the mark of the game but thats not what was impressive. He blocked Nortons run to space, forcing him to go wide, then set him up to fly over the top of him. That early effort was what set up, the great mark.

He consistently out marked Cameron when called upon to defend v GWS a couple of years back but more to the point, thats not his role, or best way of using his strengths.

Why would you waste the talent of one of the best ball users and one who can win the footy, by making him a lockdown player?

Frost and Blanck are our lockdown KP defenders.

Asking Scrim to be lockdown? You may as well ask Pendlebury to do it, then criticism him too!

How about Tom Stewart then? You really must reckon he cant play! Ive never once, seen him “lock down” a player yet he’s probably the best defender in the comp! Never, ever picks up a man! Have seen him get out marked plenty of times!





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[HedgeFund]

what is Stewart's ratio if u can be bothered?

Can’t be bothered.

Probably similar……because Geelong’s defenders like to kick it to him as well when he plays loose. It’s common sense. You try to get your best kick in the clear to use the footy best coming out of defence.

You don’t need recourse to all the stats to work that out. Just watch the games.

That’s my point.

FWIW - Sicily averaged 23.8 disposals in 2022. I said he gets 20+ because we like to use him as our designated kicker out of defence. He had just over 7 uncontested marks per game. If just over half of those are from our other defenders (and quite rightly) getting the ball into his hands so he can launch, then that proves my point. Without those dinky UCMs he wouldn’t have averaged what he did last year.