Hawthorn

[Partridge]

I'm not interested in pre-season odds and media speculation. I'll wait for the season to start, and then I'll decide who looks to be in good shape. Until then, nobody knows, it's all guess work.

Exactly right. No doubt every player at every club is flying and all the other assorted nonsense reported on during the pre-season, but it means nothing.

A good NAB Cup campaign is certainly not a bad thing, but it's only really until Round 1 (and even then, probably Round 4 or 5) before you can get a feel for how strong your team will be.

Personally, I've got absolutely no idea. I just want to see some dead wood cut loose if necessary.

 

[andrew coombs]

Like any premiership team they'd need a lot of things to go right, but for the Hawks they'd need a hell of a lot of things to go right

- roughhead to kick straight
- franklin to average 9 shots a goal per game
- burgoyne to have a career best season
- hodge to not have any sort of injury
- sewell to play a strong season
- backline to jump up 2 levels
- a new game plan
- mitchell to be able to play in the middle and not hang around half back
- rioli to be more effective than flashy and kick around 40 goals
- competitive ruck
- couple of midfielders on the fringe to jump up to solid level players

that's a big list

You can right a similar " Things that need to happen " list for every side in the comp. Last year there would have been a long list for the premiership winning Magpies. The reality is that last season Hawthorn were very competitive with anyone in the competition when several senior players who missed crucial pre season preperation were finally fit enough to have an impact. The talk is that this has been an excellent pre season and the fact that there have been so few absentees ( certainly compared to the last couple of years ) points to an improved performance. How much they improve will depend upon many of the things you have pointed out above. Given a good run with injury they are more then capable of a flag tilt.

 

[rose jam]

You can right a similar " Things that need to happen " list for every side in the comp. Last year there would have been a long list for the premiership winning Magpies. .

Not sure about that, I remember a lot of talk about Pies post season was they needed another key forward, ruckman, and an inside midfielder.They got that in Dawes, Jolly, and Ball plus the general lift across most lines in performance.
I think the Pies list of things to happen was pretty much addressed in recruiting and drafting.
Then the luck part kicks in.

 

[Partridge]

It's hard to argue Geelong the dogs and Freo but we are clearly better than the Blues.

Just have to say something regarding that. Why are Fremantle automatically assumed to be zooming up into finals glory? If we're basing a lot of this on the results of last year (i.e. Geelong v Collingwood), then it should be remembered Fremantle were hammered by Geelong pretty convincingly. And we were then duly whipped by Collingwood. I'm yet to see any evidence that Fremantle are capable of beating quality opposition in Melbourne when it matters.

 

[Rioli magic]

Not sure about that, I remember a lot of talk about Pies post season was they needed another key forward, ruckman, and an inside midfielder.They got that in Dawes, Jolly, and Ball plus the general lift across most lines in performance.
I think the Pies list of things to happen was pretty much addressed in recruiting and drafting.
Then the luck part kicks in.

I think you're underselling some other players here - Reid, L Brown, Thomas, Sidebottom, Beams, MaCaffer etc. If these players had the same output in 10' as they did in 09' you probably wouldn't have won the flag, even with Jolly and Ball.

 

[QuietB]

Just have to say something regarding that. Why are Fremantle automatically assumed to be zooming up into finals glory? If we're basing a lot of this on the results of last year (i.e. Geelong v Collingwood), then it should be remembered Fremantle were hammered by Geelong pretty convincingly. And we were then duly whipped by Collingwood. I'm yet to see any evidence that Fremantle are capable of beating quality opposition in Melbourne when it matters.

Freo had a pretty serious injury list by the end including their best player being on one leg and playing way out of position. I can see Freo improving a lot. Injuries ruined their 2nd half of the year.

 

[andrew coombs]

Not sure about that, I remember a lot of talk about Pies post season was they needed another key forward, ruckman, and an inside midfielder.They got that in Dawes, Jolly, and Ball plus the general lift across most lines in performance.
I think the Pies list of things to happen was pretty much addressed in recruiting and drafting.
Then the luck part kicks in.

Needed more then then just those. The pies also needed some tall key defenders to step up and take on the quickish talls like Buddy or Nick. Brown emerged to a degree to free up the undersized Maxwell but quick movement to a tall forward remains still a problem ( see Franklin rnd22, Reweiolt second half GF1 ) Jolly was astute and needed but you could not have said confidently before round 1 last year that the addition of Ball solved your inside mid field issue. Collingwood also would have had on their list " A consistent season from Travis Cloke and a marked improvement from Dale Thomas " , " A defined role for Maxy " " Second and third year players like Sidebottom and Beams to step up and become genuine AFL performers " " Leon Davis to perform when the stakes are high " etc etc.

Plenty of things Collingwood needed to happen did so this year, some didnt but it mattered not. Blokes like leigh Brown had seasons no one thought possible. But to say Collingwood were 3 adjustments away from glory in October 2009 is a stretch indeed.

 

[Bardo State]

Just have to say something regarding that. Why are Fremantle automatically assumed to be zooming up into finals glory? If we're basing a lot of this on the results of last year (i.e. Geelong v Collingwood), then it should be remembered Fremantle were hammered by Geelong pretty convincingly. And we were then duly whipped by Collingwood. I'm yet to see any evidence that Fremantle are capable of beating quality opposition in Melbourne when it matters.

Wasn't saying that Freo are a Preiership chance. Rather that one could argue that they are at the same level as Hawthorn (btw I don't think they are).

Regarding the odds

I think that we are a level above Fremantle. No one seems to rate Sydney for some reason. The bulldogs I'm not so sure. It's just hard to see how they will go up that extra gear. Geelong are going to have to have a massive change for a premiership to happen. They are getting older and they lost Ablett. I know he was one man but sometimes he played like 3. Once again it is hard to see how they can be at the level that the pies and saints are.

Thats how I justify it. Not saying I agree with the odds but that would be my explanation. The cats and dogs are probably more likely to finish above us but that is not the question. It is who is more likely to win a flag.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Like any premiership team they'd need a lot of things to go right, but for the Hawks they'd need a hell of a lot of things to go right

- roughhead to kick straight
- franklin to average 9 shots a goal per game
- burgoyne to have a career best season
- hodge to not have any sort of injury
- sewell to play a strong season
- backline to jump up 2 levels
- a new game plan
- mitchell to be able to play in the middle and not hang around half back
- rioli to be more effective than flashy and kick around 40 goals
- competitive ruck
- couple of midfielders on the fringe to jump up to solid level players

that's a big list

Well the bookies don't think the list is as big as you suggest.

Every side has a massive wish list of things that need to go right to have a successful season.

andrew coombs replies have got you covered - you are still drunk from the grand final if you think the pies had a small shopping list going into last season. Would love to know what your shopping list for the Pies in 2011 would have on it if you lost the drawn grand final which you were very close to doing - would you still be seeing the Pies list as complete?

I also laugh when I read the names on the Hawthorn list you made - they are all elite AFL players, all proven on the big stage. Any side with those players as its core will be very competitive with anyone. If you reckon it is those guys - who are our most consistent performers - who will be the difference between a successful season or not you are kidding yourself.

The ruck weakness is obvious. The backline isn't the worst or the best in the comp but as we have seen with a number of premiers from the last 10 years if you have a brilliant and dominant midfield you can carry an average forward line or backline - you guys are an example of that.

Our midfield next year looks like it will be the best since we have had since 2008 so the backline may be fine in 2011.

 

[absfab]

I have a lot of trouble buying the ongoing hype on Hawthorn.

Other mid range Clubs really take big hits over lack of depth, but they are probably the most unbalanced side going around.

1st Luke Hodge 167 votes
2nd Lance Franklin 122 votes
3rd Sam Mitchell 112 votes
4th Cyril Rioli 110 votes
5th Jordan Lewis 90 votes
6th Ben Stratton 87 votes
7th Shaun Burgoyne 86 votes
8th Jarryd Roughead 85 votes
9th Brent Guerra 83 votes
10th Brent Renouf 81 votes

Three out of the top ten are forwards? (Please don't tell me Rioli is really a gun midfielder. The facts differ.) And a member of arguably the worst ruck division in football in the top ten?

After the top 3 (plus Roughie) Hawthorn fall away shockingly.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

I have a lot of trouble buying the ongoing hype on Hawthorn.

Other mid range Clubs really take big hits over lack of depth, but they are probably the most unbalanced side going around.

1st Luke Hodge 167 votes
2nd Lance Franklin 122 votes
3rd Sam Mitchell 112 votes
4th Cyril Rioli 110 votes
5th Jordan Lewis 90 votes
6th Ben Stratton 87 votes
7th Shaun Burgoyne 86 votes
8th Jarryd Roughead 85 votes
9th Brent Guerra 83 votes
10th Brent Renouf 81 votes

Three out of the top ten are forwards? (Please don't tell me Rioli is really a gun midfielder. The facts differ.) And a member of arguably the worst ruck division in football in the top ten?

After the top 3 (plus Roughie) Hawthorn fall away shockingly.

But with Hawthorn last year though, they had plenty of injuries to contend with, especially early in the season. The main thing that could set them back is the ruck department. They don't have a dominate ruckman. Lance Franklin is the key for Hawthorn, if he can kick 80 to 100 goals for them, they'll make the top 4, like I am predicting. My gut feeling is quite good for the Hawks this year.

 

[rose jam]

I also laugh when I read the names on the Hawthorn list you made - they are all elite AFL players, all proven on the big stage. .

But you're forgetting this is 3 seasons later.

Sewell was good once, but not so much anymore
Burgoyne was good once, but has never been a consistent top end performer and his body is failing him
Mitchell was good once but now plays half back, a lot
Roughhead was good once, and only once

You've really got to get past the dreams of players having the best games every week and look at them for what they are, and Hawks have been a middle of the table side recently

 

[Bollox]

Just get onboard the train now.

Assuming a relatively injury free season its looking like a Sydney-Hawthorn grannie.

 

[the distributer]

Just get onboard the train now.

Assuming a relatively injury free season its looking like a Sydney-Hawthorn grannie.

Yep, and michael clarks going to win player of the series award in the world cup.

 

[rose jam]

Just get onboard the train now.

Assuming a relatively injury free season its looking like a Sydney-Hawthorn grannie.

Can't wait to see Swans footy under John Longmire, going to be a real crowd pleaser

 

[Bear Goals]

Hawthorn i believe deserve to be 3rd favourite for the flag, i believe St Kilda are far too short in the odds, but that is a different issue.
We have 2 gun fowards Roughy had a good year last year kicking 53 goals 46 Behinds plus many more misses, when we weren't getting the ball down there fluently or with any precision for most of the year. With Hale (Unreliable, i know), Roughy and Buddy patrolling the foward line it is going to be hard for defences to effectively drop off and double team, Hale can take a contested grab, which is what has been lacking in the foward section over the years.

 

[captain peanut]

I think you're underselling some other players here - Reid, L Brown, Thomas, Sidebottom, Beams, MaCaffer etc. If these players had the same output in 10' as they did in 09' you probably wouldn't have won the flag, even with Jolly and Ball.

i think he was seriously underselling some of these players. yes jolly addressed a massive ruck deficiency and ball was a very good inside midfielder addition but it was the improvement from within that led to a flag

think of some of these -

thomas had an elite season, his 1st
ben reid made CHB his own
beams finished 6th in the b&f in his 2nd year in a premiership team
sidebottom at 19 played a finals series out of the box
dawes made the goal square his own
L brown went to a level i am sure most doubted he possessed
macaffer took the mid size forward role from medhurst
N brown took his chances incl 2 GF efforts on riewoldt
toovey developed into a premier mid sized defender (not kidding-he is a gun)
harry o'brien converted 3 consecutive copeland top 10 finishes into an AA year

while the club may have hoped that some of the above would occur in 2010, the fact that they all did was the reason for the massive improvement when combined with the addition of jolly and ball and continued good form of established stars like swan pendles, shaw didak etc

back on topic, the hawks are the only team i am genuinely concerned about in 2011 as a pies fan. apart from the hawks, i am very confident that given a reasonable run with injuries the pies have the rest covered on any given day. i think the hawks will emerge from the pack as clearly a top 2 side in 2011

 

[Damon_3388]

I want to know how Hawthorn is 3rd favorite for this years flag.

Could simply be because punters have put money on them.

Betting odds shouldn't be used as a true form guide, as they're merely a reflection of the opinion of the bloke in the street (specifically, the bloke willing to put his money where his mouth is), who is no more an expert than anyone else.

 

[rose jam]

i think he was seriously underselling some of these players. yes jolly addressed a massive ruck deficiency and ball was a very good inside midfielder addition but it was the improvement from within that led to a flag

but you're also missing the degradation in the team

- medhurst
- davis
- anthony
- Maxwell was AA in 2009

 

[Furn]

But you're forgetting this is 3 seasons later.

Sewell was good once, but not so much anymore
Burgoyne was good once, but has never been a consistent top end performer and his body is failing him
Mitchell was good once but now plays half back, a lot
Roughhead was good once, and only once

You've really got to get past the dreams of players having the best games every week and look at them for what they are, and Hawks have been a middle of the table side recently

In 08 the Hawks went 20-5 an 80% winning ratio.

They then went through a period of winning 10 of 29 games a 34% winning ratio.

They then got some players back, found some form and went 11-1-4 and 72% winning ratio. 3 of those 4 losses were interstate which is a huge issue for the Hawks and will be the key to their 2011 season with 5 games interstate.

Looking at that its fair to say they turned a corner of somesorts last year. whether they can go up another level who knows.

As fair as the ablove players go its a bit early to make the big calls you are on those players. History is full of players who go through a bad patch of form and return to their best.

 

[jonoman89]

we are clearly better than the Blues.

Really? The last two years clearly demonstrate otherwise. 2008 has nothing to do with 2011.

I rank our midfield's very evenly. Our ruck brigade is 10x yours is, and that's even without Kreuzer. I believe our backline is better marginally due to extra experience in the key defensive posts.

Our forward line actually isn't that radically worse than yours either. You scored 100 less points for and only 2% higher on the ladder. And this was after us losing arguably the most dominant forward in the league for the last 5 years (Fevola). Buddy has had two very good season in 08 and 10, Roughead has been rubbish since 08.

Top 4 for mine in 2011 definitely include Collingwood and the Bulldogs. The other two spots i believe could be Hawthorn, Carlton, Saints, Cats or Sydney.

Every year since 08 everyone has had Hawks top 4. They've failed to live up to the hype, and i wouldn't be suprised if the trend continued.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

The obsession continues...

 

[Mervyn Beasley]

Really? The last two years clearly demonstrate otherwise. 2008 has nothing to do with 2011.

I rank our midfield's very evenly. Our ruck brigade is 10x yours is, and that's even without Kreuzer. I believe our backline is better marginally due to extra experience in the key defensive posts.

Our forward line actually isn't that radically worse than yours either. You scored 100 less points for and only 2% higher on the ladder. And this was after us losing arguably the most dominant forward in the league for the last 5 years (Fevola). Buddy has had two very good season in 08 and 10, Roughead has been rubbish since 08.

Top 4 for mine in 2011 definitely include Collingwood and the Bulldogs. The other two spots i believe could be Hawthorn, Carlton, Saints, Cats or Sydney.

Every year since 08 everyone has had Hawks top 4. They've failed to live up to the hype, and i wouldn't be suprised if the trend continued.

Mind your bum whilst sitting on that fence Jono.

In your humble opinion Hawthorn could fill one of the 2 spots available in top 4, but you wouldn't be surprised if they didn't

Meanwhile I'm loving how everybody thinks Roughy is rubbish. He's had a bad year and kicked 53!! Kick straight and he's a had an easy 75 season.
Fev kicks 75 and is adored beyond belief!!!

 

[jonoman89]

Mind your bum whilst sitting on that fence Jono.

In your humble opinion Hawthorn could fill one of the 2 spots available in top 4, but you wouldn't be surprised if they didn't

I said i rate our teams very evenly coming into 2011 and i think are odds on for making the top 4. What didn't you understand?

I wouldn't be suprised if you either did or didn't make it: you have the cattle for it, but you have underperformed the last two years. You're a wildcard in my opinion and i can't say i'd be 'suprised' if you did really well or really badly.

 

[SA HAWK]

Really? The last two years clearly demonstrate otherwise. 2008 has nothing to do with 2011.

I rank our midfield's very evenly. Our ruck brigade is 10x yours is, and that's even without Kreuzer. I believe our backline is better marginally due to extra experience in the key defensive posts.

Our forward line actually isn't that radically worse than yours either. You scored 100 less points for and only 2% higher on the ladder. And this was after us losing arguably the most dominant forward in the league for the last 5 years (Fevola). Buddy has had two very good season in 08 and 10, Roughead has been rubbish since 08.

Top 4 for mine in 2011 definitely include Collingwood and the Bulldogs. The other two spots i believe could be Hawthorn, Carlton, Saints, Cats or Sydney.

Every year since 08 everyone has had Hawks top 4. They've failed to live up to the hype, and i wouldn't be suprised if the trend continued.

Buddy also had a very good year in 07 when he kicked 73 goals.

Roughead has kicked 51 & 53 goals in the last 2 years. Not as good as his 08 season but hardly rubbish.