Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

[Southerntakeover]

That makes no sense.
In 2023 we beat Brisbane in a year they made gf.

Even under nicks, were capable of beating good teams at home .

Sydney will be a 6-12 team next year.

Taking a lot from the 1 in that 1-6 record against Brisbane aren't you?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Taking a lot from the 1 in that 1-6 record against Brisbane aren't you?

No not really. In fact it would be pretty naive to think losses from 2021 have much relevance in 2025.

Do you expect no improvement at all?

Also, I mentioned home games not record (which is 1-1-5).
But even our two losses at the Gabba were bey 6 and 18 points. Fairly competitive for a team outside the 8 taking on a gf team.

 

[SugarShane]

IN
Isaac Cumming (free agent, Greater Western Sydney), Sid Draper (No.4 draft pick), Alex Neal-Bullen (trade, Melbourne), James Peatling (trade, Greater Western Sydney), Tyler Welsh (No.59 draft pick, father-son)

OUT
Lachlan Gollant (delisted), Will Hamill (delisted), Elliott Himmelberg (free agent, Gold Coast), Ned McHenry (delisted), Patrick Parnell (delisted), Rory Sloane (retired)

The ins, most of whom will be playing significant AFL minutes, are so much better than the outs. Add to that even Nicks should have worked out a better game plan than the 1st 6 weeks of last year, and surely our weakest link Murphy has to be squeezed out so that we play last quarters with 18 men not 17.

We have to have a better year than last season - don't we?

Can directly compare most of them.

Gollant/Himmelberg -> Welsh.
In future this should be an upgrade but unlikely to see much of Welsh this year imo. Nil all draw.

Hamill -> Cumming.
Hamill played some nice footy this year but Cumming should be an upgrade purely on size and strength without losing much speed. Advantage Cumming.

McHenry -> ANB
Extreme upgrade. Like trading in a 26" CRT TV for a 65" OLED. Not only on field but leadership wise. Game, set, match, championship ANB.

Parnell -> Peatling.
Decent upgrade. Peatling should be able to play in windy conditions without being knocked over. Adv Peatling.

Sloane -> Draper.
Sloane was cooked in 23, and didn't make the field in 24. By default this is a big upgrade to our engine room. Adv Draper.

Add in potential full years for TT and Nick Murray.

Like you, it's hard to see where we'd go backwards. Though the Crows always find a way to surprise you. Tex's likely downfall is probably one spot, though Fog already passed him for goals last year. Had some unlucky injuries like Worrell and Rankine (along with Ranks' suspension). If the injury gods bless us, who knows. It's just so hard to be optimistic though after recent history, we know what happens to the team under expectation.

 

[1990crow]

Have to agree

You would think given fitness that all 3 of Peatling , ANB and Cummins would be first up

Prioritising Curtin would be next

Thats 4 ''new'' faces from Round 1 last year

If not then yes he should be marched out game 1

We signed Captain Pat Cat B?

 

[Geoffa32]

17

 

[Southerntakeover]

No not really. In fact it would be pretty naive to think losses from 2021 have much relevance in 2025.

Do you expect no improvement at all?

Also, I mentioned home games not record (which is 1-1-5).
But even our two losses at the Gabba were bey 6 and 18 points. Fairly competitive for a team outside the 8 taking on a gf team.

Improvement is relative. To the extent that we're improving, we need to do so more than other teams who will also improve to make up ground.

Do I think there's a reasonable basis to think that we're now better than Hawthorn for example? Difficult to see why given just how badly they pasted us.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Improvement is relative. To the extent that we're improving, we need to do so more than other teams who will also improve to make up ground.

Do I think there's a reasonable basis to think that we're now better than Hawthorn for example? Difficult to see why given just how badly they pasted us.

again im talking home home, so we need to be better than at home not in general.

Also it would not be a total surprise to see them regress a little.

 

[Scorpus]

Improvement is relative. To the extent that we're improving, we need to do so more than other teams who will also improve to make up ground.

Do I think there's a reasonable basis to think that we're now better than Hawthorn for example? Difficult to see why given just how badly they pasted us.

Spot on. 80% of teams improve on paper. We need to improve a lot relative to others to get well out of the bottom 4

 

[AFC979810]

Spot on. 80% of teams improve on paper. We need to improve a lot relative to others to get well out of the bottom 4

Disagree.

We aren't as far away as people think.

In 2024 we won 2 out of our 9 games decided by 2 kicks or less.
In 2023 we won 1 out of our 7 games decided by 2 kicks or less.

Thats 3 wins out of 16 games decided by 12 points or less. We have added 3 mature players to our best 22 that will instantly improve us (ANB, Peatling, Cumming).

 

[CrowToon]

Disagree.

We aren't as far away as people think.

In 2024 we won 2 out of our 9 games decided by 2 kicks or less.
In 2023 we won 1 out of our 7 games decided by 2 kicks or less.

Thats 3 wins out of 16 games decided by 12 points or less. We have added 3 mature players to our best 22 that will instantly improve us (ANB, Peatling, Cumming).

Absolutely this. Winning the close games gets us into finals without any growth beyond that. Then you add in the list changes and another year of several players development and team cohesion and the reasons for optimism are there.

Talk of bottom 4 are unjustifiable at this point.

I get that optimism has been burnt so I don't begrudge anyone talking 5th-12th as a range because the past form indicates this is the extent to our inconsistency.

But people talking bottom 4 aren't getting their justification from the present OR the past.

we have knocked over teams in Melbourne, won close games, a lot of monkeys should be off the back.

After 5 games we need to be 3-2 or better. If we aren't, then I will concede we are in a mid-table scrap. But I'd have to see us start 1-4 or worse to even entertain bottom 4 talk.

 

[Scorpus]

Absolutely this. Winning the close games gets us into finals without any growth beyond that. Then you add in the list changes and another year of several players development and team cohesion and the reasons for optimism are there.

Talk of bottom 4 are unjustifiable at this point.

I get that optimism has been burnt so I don't begrudge anyone talking 5th-12th as a range because the past form indicates this is the extent to our inconsistency.

But people talking bottom 4 aren't getting their justification from the present OR the past.

we have knocked over teams in Melbourne, won close games, a lot of monkeys should be off the back.

After 5 games we need to be 3-2 or better. If we aren't, then I will concede we are in a mid-table scrap. But I'd have to see us start 1-4 or worse to even entertain bottom 4 talk.

If we performed to a league average level in close games (so 50-50) we would have won 4 or 5 of our 9 close games in 2024.

That would give us 2 or 3 additional wins, bringing us to 10.5-11.5 wins and still missing finals by 2 wins.

Of course if we're winning 8 or 9 out of 9 close games we're probably an excellent side. But it's not as simple as "just win all the close ones". It's rare for a team to win that many.

Brisbane for example went 4-1-2 in close matches in 2024. If we had that winning percentage in close ones last year we still miss finals.

Basically unless we go on a Collingwood 2023 streak of winning close games merely improving our record in close games isn't alone going to be enough

 

[GROTTO]

If we performed to a league average level in close games (so 50-50) we would have won 4 or 5 of our 9 close games in 2024.

That would give us 2 or 3 additional wins, bringing us to 10.5-11.5 wins and still missing finals by 2 wins.

Of course if we're winning 8 or 9 out of 9 close games we're probably an excellent side. But it's not as simple as "just win all the close ones". It's rare for a team to win that many.

Brisbane for example went 4-1-2 in close matches in 2024. If we had that winning percentage in close ones last year we still miss finals.

Basically unless we go on a Collingwood 2023 streak of winning close games merely improving our record in close games isn't alone going to be enough

Fun Facts with Grotto

Crows in close games, 12pts or less under Nicks.

2020 Won 1 Lost 2
2021 Won 4 Lost 5
2022 Won 2 Lost 3
2023 Won 1 Lost 5
2024 Won 2 Lost 6 Draw 1

Overall Won 10 Lost 21 Draw 1

Winning Strike Rate of 10/32 ~ 31%

 

[CrowToon]

If we performed to a league average level in close games (so 50-50) we would have won 4 or 5 of our 9 close games in 2024.

That would give us 2 or 3 additional wins, bringing us to 10.5-11.5 wins and still missing finals by 2 wins.

Of course if we're winning 8 or 9 out of 9 close games we're probably an excellent side. But it's not as simple as "just win all the close ones". It's rare for a team to win that many.

Brisbane for example went 4-1-2 in close matches in 2024. If we had that winning percentage in close ones last year we still miss finals.

Basically unless we go on a Collingwood 2023 streak of winning close games merely improving our record in close games isn't alone going to be enough

And in 23 it would've been the difference.

Ypu think with time and our recuriting we will be more like 23 or 24?

If we have an average year (and I mean medium, not bad) we sit in that middle 6 band somewhere. Any team in that band will have their fortunes decided by who can pinch more of the coinflips.

As I said, if we start crap then I'll happily concede but based on everything - Ill back them in to do much better than bottom 4.

 

[Scorpus]

And in 23 it would've been the difference.

Ypu think with time and our recuriting we will be more like 23 or 24?

If we have an average year (and I mean medium, not bad) we sit in that middle 6 band somewhere. Any team in that band will have their fortunes decided by who can pinch more of the coinflips.

As I said, if we start crap then I'll happily concede but based on everything - Ill back them in to do much better than bottom 4.

I think we are in the best position we have been under Nicks to improve from a list perspective.

I don't think we will finish bottom 4. But given we were a fair way off finals, we will need to improve significantly to get there. Other teams will also be expecting improvement and I'm not sure to what degree we will outpace them. Some very good sides missed finals in 2024 and added a lot of quality, like Fremantle and Collingwood.

My gut feel is that our results in 2024 were not as much due to the list and more due to coaching. Can we brute force finals by adding more quality to the list, or is coaching still going to be a handbrake? Even with Davis I don't think Nicks is a good enough game day coach to improve beyond merely making up the numbers somewhere in the bottom part of the 8, and missing finals again is definitely still on the cards

 

[pjcrows]

I think we'll return to that nice little AFC sweet spot of 10 or 11 wins.

Include a close big away win in the middle of the year - say against Collingwood at the G - offset by slop against teams we should beat.

"Yeah but remember that Collingwood game" will get Nicks through to the end of the season, but we miss finals.

Sanderson 2014 2.0.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Fun Facts with Grotto

Crows in close games, 12pts or less under Nicks.

2020 Won 1 Lost 2
2021 Won 4 Lost 5
2022 Won 2 Lost 3
2023 Won 1 Lost 5
2024 Won 2 Lost 6 Draw 1

Overall Won 10 Lost 21 Draw 1

Winning Strike Rate of 10/32 ~ 31%

Confirms we have not been composed in close games & record in last 2 seasons is poor.

Hope 1 area of the game we are working on as doubtful we can make finals unless we at least split these games.

 

[AFC979810]

If we performed to a league average level in close games (so 50-50) we would have won 4 or 5 of our 9 close games in 2024.

That would give us 2 or 3 additional wins, bringing us to 10.5-11.5 wins and still missing finals by 2 wins.

Of course if we're winning 8 or 9 out of 9 close games we're probably an excellent side. But it's not as simple as "just win all the close ones". It's rare for a team to win that many.

Brisbane for example went 4-1-2 in close matches in 2024. If we had that winning percentage in close ones last year we still miss finals.

Basically unless we go on a Collingwood 2023 streak of winning close games merely improving our record in close games isn't alone going to be enough

Its more of an indication of the fact that we aren't that far off rather than an argument of "win close games we make the finals for the past two years" (even though thats a valid argument).

We had a very healthy percentage compared to the other 3 teams in the bottom 4. Despite our poor record, we only had 4 losses over 5 goals and 2 of those games we were within striking distance at 3/4 time.

 

[Coopers]

He's a bit unlucky to have 8 bogey teams

The AFC is his bogey team

Talk of bottom 4 are unjustifiable at this point.

What? It's absolutely justifiable based on history.

I think we'll be playing finals, there's a lot to look forward to. But I thought that last year.

 

[Freomaniac]

14-9 record... so long as ROB not missing for significant number of games.

If we don't get off to a strong start, my prediction will be miles off!

I saw the crows fixture. It's not bad.

Crows could have a season similar to Port in 2013. Start with winning the 1st 5 games. Yep gold coast away and Cats at home will be tricky. Crows then end up with 13 or 14 wins.



The only thing that might switch is the original poster on here late in the season posted crows beating port and losing to the hawks in Adelaide oval the next week.

I reckon it will be the other way around.

It will be tough for crows to win the showdown twice again.... But crows did it last season. (Yeah I did win money on backing the crows on both of those games)

As for the away games. Crows should beat Richmond at MCG , eagles in Perth and North Melbourne away.

Essendon at MCG, Bulldogs away, hawks in Tassie, dockers in Perth and Gold coast away is tough. But crows can pull off away wins vs all of them.

Then again, crows could pull of a similar season to the dockers 2022 season and get 15 wins. Dockers won 8 games at home and lost 4.

Yet Freo won 7 away games in 2022.

There are so many things that can decide the crows season. I won't be shocked if crows won 14 games. 9 wins at home and 5 away wins with the crows fixture.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I saw the crows fixture. It's not bad.

Crows could have a season similar to Port in 2013. Start with winning the 1st 5 games. Yep gold coast away and Cats at home will be tricky. Crows then end up with 13 or 14 wins.



The only thing that might switch is the original poster on here late in the season posted crows beating port and losing to the hawks in Adelaide oval the next week.

I reckon it will be the other way around.

It will be tough for crows to win the showdown twice again.... But crows did it last season. (Yeah I did win money on backing the crows on both of those games)

As for the away games. Crows should beat Richmond at MCG , eagles in Perth and North Melbourne away.

Essendon at MCG, Bulldogs away, hawks in Tassie, dockers in Perth and Gold coast away is tough. But crows can pull off away wins vs all of them.

Then again, crows could pull of a similar season to the dockers 2022 season and get 15 wins. Dockers won 8 games at home and lost 4.

Yet Freo won 7 away games in 2022.

There are so many things that can decide the crows season. I won't be shocked if crows won 14 games. 9 wins at home and 5 away wins with the crows fixture.

Like last season, we will know in the 1st month whether the Crows are in the finals mix or not.

We have a decent early fixture, so if we are not tracking well, Nicks will be looking for a new job.

I'm hopeful Davis improves the coaching box.

Mentioned earlier today we need to do better in the close games which we have a poor record. Need to look to split these, rather than lose all, as could be the difference.

There are going to be several decent sides miss finals next season, so we will need to be at our best to play finals.

 

[dogs105]

I can't see where we lose another game ever

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I can't see where we lose another game ever

Maybe we throw Round 24 given that we'll have top spot sewn up

 

[Freomaniac]

Like last season, we will know in the 1st month whether the Crows are in the finals mix or not.

We have a decent early fixture, so if we are not tracking well, Nicks will be looking for a new job.

I'm hopeful Davis improves the coaching box.

Mentioned earlier today we need to do better in the close games which we have a poor record. Need to look to split these, rather than lose all, as could be the difference.

There are going to be several decent sides miss finals next season, so we will need to be at our best to play finals.

Yeah some solid sides will miss out on finals in 2025.

A couple if decent clubs missed out on 2024.

My dockers was one of them. Top 4 with 4 games left and lost 4 games in a row. All narrow losses too.

It's not like the 2000 to 2009 period where the crows only missed out on finals twice: 2000 and 2004.

It's not like the old days where a 12 win and 10 loss record the means 8th spot. That means 8 to 10 wins at home and 2 to 4 away wins vs bottom 6 clubs.

Again I look at the AFL draw.

14 wins is achievable with this crows side.

I don't expect the crows to win all 13 home state games. I expect the crows to win 9 or 10 games home and 4 or 5 games away.

 

[AFC979810]

I think we are a side that should be between 5th and 7th and in the past two years you need to win 14 games to achieve that.

Thats my answer 14 games.

 

[secondary]

I'm going 14 as well, feeling is somewhat high. Lord knows why.