Opinion Is father-son access going to heavily dictate the next decade of premiers?

[GC2015]

But who cares some of them are just discounted duds that get picked down low in the draft so it all evens out

The irony is not lost on me when I see a Hawthorn supporter trying to convince everyone that the F/S rule is not that advantageous when his club drafted two of them last year and one was a first round pick. People either don't know what's going on or they are purposely choosing to ignore the truth that 7 of the last 15 F/S picks in the ND were first round picks and we're about to see a 4th top 4 F/S pick in the last 4 years when Levi Ashcroft gets drafted to Brisbane.

You can try to write it off as a few strong years for F/S prospects and that it'll eventually even out, but guess what? Early predictions have Collingwood F/S prospect Thomas McGuane as a top 5 pick in the 2025 draft and Carlton F/S prospect Cody Walker is also seen as a probable top 5 pick in the 2026 draft. This is going to continue and the evidence is going to keep mounting.

 

[Viceregal]

So if I am reading concept right:

- father son is designed to embrace, enhance and encourage going forward long term and generational support in a world where loyalty is an ever more flakey concept... that would be a tick.

- all clubs have (or will have over time) equal access to this ... also a tick

- all clubs have equal opportunity even if equity in outcome is not guaranteed... also a tick (you can't force genetics (or shouldn't)

- clubs with father son prospects are starting their training earlier on top of their potentially positive and footy friendly home environment and this is also open to every club ... also a tick

- some clubs do their best to encourage their players to remember their time with them fondly and others ban their best and fairest from the annual awards night ... again this is each club's choice so also a tick

- does it affect the draft order? Of course it does ... as do priority picks, academy matches, compensation picks, trading, concessional picks for new teams (I well remember coming second last our first pick was 8 and last got 6 with the rest being GWS picks), pity picks (eg North, Saints) but again swings and roundabouts (I am sure the Saints fans were delighted when Carlton lost their pick 1 and 2 and they picked up Goddard) ... again affects everyone

- some have no club and don't see the point ... all good but the vast majority of AFL fandom are tribal and that is the demographic this caters to and since the rule was there when you started following I have same sympathy I do for the folks who buy a cheap house under an airport flight path and then complain how the noise is unfair.

- Claim it is unprofessional / amateur... how about we revisit this after we have a fair fixture, transparent rules and umpiring, fair access to time slots, transparent reimbursement of players, unbiased commentary and media, playing GF at higher team's home ground, transparent rules for compensation etc etc etc

So will F/s affect premierships going forward? Most likely yes but it is only one factor ... adding Will Ashcroft to the Brisbane team in 2016 would not have won us a flag just like North's priority picks didn't catapult them up the ladder and the Gold Coast GWS didn't share next 10 flags as some catastrophised would happen...

As long as it is applied to everybody I am fine with it and equally happy even when it ends up unequally distributed!

 

[Cleansweep17]

So if I am reading concept right:

- father son is designed to embrace, enhance and encourage going forward long term and generational support in a world where loyalty is an ever more flakey concept... that would be a tick.

- all clubs have (or will have over time) equal access to this ... also a tick

- all clubs have equal opportunity even if equity in outcome is not guaranteed... also a tick (you can't force genetics (or shouldn't)

- clubs with father son prospects are starting their training earlier on top of their potentially positive and footy friendly home environment and this is also open to every club ... also a tick

- some clubs do their best to encourage their players to remember their time with them fondly and others ban their best and fairest from the annual awards night ... again this is each club's choice so also a tick

- does it affect the draft order? Of course it does ... as do priority picks, academy matches, compensation picks, trading, concessional picks for new teams (I well remember coming second last our first pick was 8 and last got 6 with the rest being GWS picks), pity picks (eg North, Saints) but again swings and roundabouts (I am sure the Saints fans were delighted when Carlton lost their pick 1 and 2 and they picked up Goddard) ... again affects everyone

- some have no club and don't see the point ... all good but the vast majority of AFL fandom are tribal and that is the demographic this caters to and since the rule was there when you started following I have same sympathy I do for the folks who buy a cheap house under an airport flight path and then complain how the noise is unfair.

- Claim it is unprofessional / amateur... how about we revisit this after we have a fair fixture, transparent rules and umpiring, fair access to time slots, transparent reimbursement of players, unbiased commentary and media, playing GF at higher team's home ground, transparent rules for compensation etc etc etc

So will F/s affect premierships going forward? Most likely yes but it is only one factor ... adding Will Ashcroft to the Brisbane team in 2016 would not have won us a flag just like North's priority picks didn't catapult them up the ladder and the Gold Coast GWS didn't share next 10 flags as some catastrophised would happen...

As long as it is applied to everybody I am fine with it and equally happy even when it ends up unequally distributed!

As long as there isn’t a discount when bidding it’s fine. I think it’s currently 80% draft point value or something to match.

And we don’t want the automatic get with pick 40 days in the 2000s again. Gross.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The irony is not lost on me when I see a Hawthorn supporter trying to convince everyone that the F/S rule is not that advantageous when his club drafted two of them last year and one was a first round pick. People either don't know what's going on or they are purposely choosing to ignore the truth that 7 of the last 15 F/S picks in the ND were first round picks and we're about to see a 4th top 4 F/S pick in the last 4 years when Levi Ashcroft gets drafted to Brisbane.

You can try to write it off as a few strong years for F/S prospects and that it'll eventually even out, but guess what? Early predictions have Collingwood F/S prospect Thomas McGuane as a top 5 pick in the 2025 draft and Carlton F/S prospect Cody Walker is also seen as a probable top 5 pick in the 2026 draft. This is going to continue and the evidence is going to keep mounting.

McGuane won't go close to top 5 so don't need to worry about that next year. Walker looks every bit a Daicos type talent so far but a long way to go

 

[rye]

Right, but the point of the thread is that the father-son rule appears to have become more advantageous these days than it ever was in the past and whether that will heavily dictate the next decade of premierships. It's undeniable that Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore and Will Ashcroft had a big say in the two premierships that have been won since this thread was started.

So what's changed? It appears that some clubs are putting a lot more time/resources into the development of their F/S prospects and are getting early access to develop them (training wise) thanks to the AFL relaxing their rules. It's kind of like the NGAs when we started seeing top 10 picks coming through after the AFL chose to incentivise the development of those players for clubs.

more advantageous than when players like brown, watson, scarlett, shaw (x2) and hawkins got drafted for a packet of chips?

seriously?

since the advent of the draft, there has been 26 players taken under the father / son rule to play more than 100 games. that averages out to less than one top father / son prospect annually. in terms of things impacting the equality of the afl competition it would rank well down the list for anyone who looks at it with perspective.

 

[GC2015]

McGuane won't go close to top 5 so don't need to worry about that next year. Walker looks every bit a Daicos type talent so far but a long way to go

Wouldn't be so sure about McGuane. He'll get the opportunity to train with the Pies this off season and there's no doubt he'll learn a thing or two from the likes of Nick Daicos. McGuane is currently viewed as a first round talent and I think there's every chance he could rocket into the top 10 calculations. Anyway, Cody Walker does seem the safer bet in that sense.

more advantageous than when players like brown, watson, scarlett, shaw (x2) and hawkins got drafted for a packet of chips?

seriously?

How many of those were considered top 4 picks leading into the draft? I know Hawkins was the consensus number 1 pick and that's why the rule changed. I also know Ablett was seen as a late first rounder/early second rounder.

I'd be surprised if you could show me 4 consecutive years in which F/S picks that were considered top 4 talents were drafted to their respective teams, because that's what we're seeing at the moment.

since the advent of the draft, there has been 26 players taken under the father / son rule to play more than 100 games. that averages out to less than one top father / son prospect annually. in terms of things impacting the equality of the afl competition it would rank well down the list for anyone who looks at it with perspective.

Funny how people just extend the timeline to make their point. Do you think Nick Daicos is going to reach 100 games? How about Will Ashcrtoft? Levi Ashcroft? Sam Darcy? These are all essentially guaranteed 100+ game F/S players drafted in the last 4 years and will likely end up closer to 300 games when it's all said and done. You might say, what about the other F/S picks over the last few years? I'm reasonably confident that players like Jaspa Fletcher, Jase Burgoyne, Max Michalanney, Jackson Archer, Calsher Dear etc will also reach 100 games before their careers come to an end. Basically, I'm suggesting that the majority of F/S picks that were drafted in the last 4 years will play over 100 AFL games.

Jason Cloke not reaching 100 AFL games when his career came to an end in 2006 has zero bearing on the quality of F/S prospects we're seeing in the draft these days. Times have changed and looking back on the history of F/S players isn't a fair reflection on what we're seeing now.