Is Josh Kennedy the best tall forward in the game?

[jod23]

I think he gets left out of the Hird/Voss/Buckley conversation because those guys played more at the same time as each other. That's why they get mentioned in the same breathe. Cousins was a few years later. Also I find it funny in a discussion of underrating you didn't have Harvey in there.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I though if you asked most people who the best wingman in the last 30 years was, Matera would probably win the vote. Do you think that's underrated?

I agree with you on Simon Black.

Ask it on Bigfooty. Matera wouldnt win.

Harvey is a massive one that gets left out. For me, better than any of Buckley, Voss and Hird.

You're right about Cousins being a few years later.

 

[jod23]

What a load of ... literally the first year Buddy went to Sydney the media was saying he was playing better there then he ever did at Hawthorn (and it was bs obviously). How about Brad Hill, all of a sudden a star at Fremantle while everyone insisted he was shit compared to his brother when he was here.

But yeah none of those guys you mentioned are rated at all mate, no one would know who Cousins was if he didn't play at Richmond, absolutely. Wasn't Jakovich that dude who Carey dominated? I know Kerr was the hamstring guy, you got me.

Didnt say you wouldnt know who they are. Obviously footy fans would know who players like Kerr, Cousins, Jako are etc. But if you ask people if they are better than some other players who played in Victoria, you'd get a resounding no.

 

[iameviljez]

Ask it on Bigfooty. Matera wouldnt win.

As a Geelong supporter, unfortunately I'd vote him every time. That said, "wingman" is a pretty rare and specialised role that kinda died out in the 80 when Turner and Flower retired.

If I remember rightly, in the early to mid-nineties, Matera and Diesel were the best mids in the comp, but at the time it really was a tall man's league - we'd just gone through that season where three full-forwards kicked the ton, and Carey was on the scene.

Part of me wonders, too, if Kennedy suffers a bit from the same issue that Fev did - that he's primarily a deep goalkicking forward, rather than a centre-half-forward type, in an era where that deep role doesn't flourish any more. The game is much more built around the Tom Lynch/Riewoldt/J Brown style of tall forward, now.

 

[dajesmac]

He's the best forward in the game at the moment. Franklin has the more impressive career.

 

[Scotland]

Part of me wonders, too, if Kennedy suffers a bit from the same issue that Fev did - that he's primarily a deep goalkicking forward, rather than a centre-half-forward type, in an era where that deep role doesn't flourish any more. The game is much more built around the Tom Lynch/Riewoldt/J Brown style of tall forward, now.

I think this a bit of a myth.

Tom Lynch gets 76% of his possessions in the forward half compared to 85% for Kennedy. People seem to talk about Kennedy like he's a proper 1990s full forward who never leaves the forward 50, just kicks goals from marks on the lead, doesn't chase and tackle etc.

Jonathan Brown spent the early part of his career pushing up the ground and getting a lot of the ball but not kicking massive bags of goals as a 2nd/3rd forward. Then he had a purple patch in the middle when he was the #1 target inside 50 and was kicking 3+ per game. Then towards the end his body let him down and he didn't play at the same level. At his peak he had the ball kicked to him inside 50 more than Kennedy in either of the last two years.

It's really only Franklin who gets half forward stats and full forward goals, and he's a freak. He really is an oversized half forward flanker. If someone said they had a 199cm key forward prospect who was ordinary above his head and didn't really jump at the ball you wouldn't think you have a potential 1,000 goal kicker on your hands. But that's exactly what he is on track for. Remarkable player.

 

[IllBeTheJudge]

I think Kennedy is the best forward playing right now.
He may get overtaken in a year or two with Daniher and Ben Brown in particular, but I guess at 32 (in a year or two), so he should.

Winning 3x Colemans in a row (should he do it) in isolation is a mighty effort. Not sure it's instant "legend" territory, as more so than other awards it relies on the quality (or lack of) of the other forwards. These days it seems it would almost be a curse, and people will label West Coast as being too one dimensional with their forward targets. The general change in game style comes into it too I think.

Again, not saying it wouldn't be a great effort but even going back 10 years you had Brown, Fevola, J Reiwoldt, and some bloke called Franklin to contend with and all at their peak (and contending against each other). Different game style back then.

 

[Deep]

Franklin will damage you more but as a genuine key forward you cant go past JK the past 3 years.

 

[Scotland]

2011: 59 of 356 (17%) with LeCras 47, Nicoski 41, Lynch 28, Darling 24 and Cox/NN combining for 38
2012: 18 in 9 games
2013: 60 of 295 (20%)
2014: 61 of 300 (20%)
2015: 80 of 372 (22%) with LeCras 45, Hill 40, Cripps 34 and Darling 26 (from 15 games)
2016: 82 of 330 (25%) with Darling 44, LeCras 38, Cripps 28, Hill 24
2017: 49 of 235 (21%) missing 5 games with Darling 34, LeCras 25, Cripps 17, Hill 16

Daniher 53 of 260 (20%), Brown 51 of 238 (21%), Franklin 51 of 233 (21%) this year. Franklin's record is 113 of 408 (28%). Fev's record was 33% of Carlton's goals.

Kennedy hovers around 20-25% of team goals which is where good key forwards sit. 2015 is about where you want a good team to sit (hence we made the GF) with 3 players kicking 40+. 2011 very even and again no coincidence we made it to the prelims even if if we comfortably 4th compared to the top 3.

He's pretty bloody consistent. If he was kicking 3-4 a game and we were getting sub 300 as a team with other players batting to get more than 1 a game I'd be worried. This year we have fallen away a bit with LeCras and Cripps in particular not hitting the scoreboard.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

It's really only Franklin who gets half forward stats and full forward goals, and he's a freak. He really is an oversized half forward flanker. If someone said they had a 199cm key forward prospect who was ordinary above his head and didn't really jump at the ball you wouldn't think you have a potential 1,000 goal kicker on your hands. But that's exactly what he is on track for. Remarkable player.

Well said.

We're now moving into a period when the discussion of whether Franklin has gone past Carey as the greatest key forward of the modern era becomes a legitimate talking point.

Consider that Carey left North Melbourne aged 30. And that was really the end of him as an elite player. Franklin is now basically the same age and remains the league's No.1 key forward, and could well have another three years at his current level.

So if you consider Franklin's unmatched athleticism, combined with his longevity and greater potency as a goal-kicker, he's well-placed to eclipse Carey by the time he's done. Assuming he finishes with 300+ games and 1000+ goals, in an era when key forwards kick fewer goals, I think he'll have a pretty powerful case.

 

[Deep]

2011: 59 of 356 (17%) with LeCras 47, Nicoski 41, Lynch 28, Darling 24 and Cox/NN combining for 38
2012: 18 in 9 games
2013: 60 of 295 (20%)
2014: 61 of 300 (20%)
2015: 80 of 372 (22%) with LeCras 45, Hill 40, Cripps 34 and Darling 26 (from 15 games)
2016: 82 of 330 (25%) with Darling 44, LeCras 38, Cripps 28, Hill 24
2017: 49 of 235 (21%) missing 5 games with Darling 34, LeCras 25, Cripps 17, Hill 16

Daniher 53 of 260 (20%), Brown 51 of 238 (21%), Franklin 51 of 233 (21%) this year. Franklin's record is 113 of 408 (28%). Fev's record was 33% of Carlton's goals.

Kennedy hovers around 20-25% of team goals which is where good key forwards sit. 2015 is about where you want a good team to sit (hence we made the GF) with 3 players kicking 40+. 2011 very even and again no coincidence we made it to the prelims even if if we comfortably 4th compared to the top 3.

He's pretty bloody consistent. If he was kicking 3-4 a game and we were getting sub 300 as a team with other players batting to get more than 1 a game I'd be worried. This year we have fallen away a bit with LeCras and Cripps in particular not hitting the scoreboard.

What happened to Mark Nicoski obviously retired but whats he up to nowadays..

 

[kane249]

What happened to Mark Nicoski obviously retired but whats he up to nowadays..

Development coach at the Eagles

 

[Scotland]

Agreed that Carey vs Franklin is now a legitimate debate.

Contested marks only started being kept as a stat in 1999 and Carey had 66 of them in 1999 and 2000. Given they were his 4th and 8th best years for marks overall I reckon he'd have given Travis Cloke's record of 95 in a season a shake on more than one occasion. Franklin's record is 64 and he averages low 30s per season. It's not really his go. He's not a physically imposing player in the way Carey was. Jonathan Brown played like Carey, but wasn't as good and wasn't as his peak for long enough.

If I think of Carey highlights in my head, I think of big pack marks running back with the flight and one on one battles with Jako. If I think Franklin, I think a goal from 60m on the left forward flank, the hurdle jump and goal against Collingwood or the run and goal against Hooker.

Carey was a higher possession player in a lower possession era, but kicked fewer goals. At his peak he was getting 19 touches, 8 marks and 3+ goals a game. Franklin is a higher goal kicker in a lower (individual) scoring era. At his peak he kicked the ton when most years 70 odd wins the Coleman now.

When Franklin reaches 1,000, where will he sit in comparison to the other 5 blokes in that club?

 

[Deep]

Agreed that Carey vs Franklin is now a legitimate debate.

Contested marks only started being kept as a stat in 1999 and Carey had 66 of them in 1999 and 2000. Given they were his 4th and 8th best years for marks overall I reckon he'd have given Travis Cloke's record of 95 in a season a shake on more than one occasion. Franklin's record is 64 and he averages low 30s per season. It's not really his go. He's not a physically imposing player in the way Carey was. Jonathan Brown played like Carey, but wasn't as good and wasn't as his peak for long enough.

If I think of Carey highlights in my head, I think of big pack marks running back with the flight and one on one battles with Jako. If I think Franklin, I think a goal from 60m on the left forward flank, the hurdle jump and goal against Collingwood or the run and goal against Hooker.

Carey was a higher possession player in a lower possession era, but kicked fewer goals. At his peak he was getting 19 touches, 8 marks and 3+ goals a game. Franklin is a higher goal kicker in a lower (individual) scoring era. At his peak he kicked the ton when most years 70 odd wins the Coleman now.

When Franklin reaches 1,000, where will he sit in comparison to the other 5 blokes in that club?

I never saw any of those top 5 play but based on things I've heard about the best players of all time he's only behind the likes of Ablett x2 & Leigh Matthews

 

[Scotland]

People posting on BigFooty haven't seen Ablett, Lockett and Dunstall play.

I feel old.

 

[Eaglespur]

People posting on BigFooty haven't seen Ablett, Lockett and Dunstall play.

I feel old.

I watched Ablett on old Vcr tapes of the 90s granfinals but i was 3 when he retired.

 

[MarcusP2]

People posting on BigFooty haven't seen Ablett, Lockett and Dunstall play.

I feel old.

Lockett was the last to retire and kids born after he retired for the first time are now finishing school.

 

[makrus]

Easily the best at the moment. I wish he played for my team....

Oh

 

[_Mike_]

People posting on BigFooty haven't seen Ablett, Lockett and Dunstall play.

I feel old.

Different player strengths, different era of the game, different coaching tactics. I don't think its reasonable to compare JKennedy or any of today's KPF's on that merit alone

As a side note there is an existing thread discussing comparisons and opinions on key (position) forwards

 

[Milanista28]

I'm just rapt that Joey is starting to creep into these conversations.

 

[Scotland]

Different player strengths, different era of the game, different coaching tactics. I don't think its reasonable to compare JKennedy or any of today's KPF's on that merit alone

As a side note there is an existing thread discussing comparisons and opinions on key (position) forwards

I think you can compare players through eras, you just need to be mindful of each era.

Modra for example in 1993 kicked 129.61. That's 190 shots for goal. He took 163 marks, most of them inside 50, and other than those 190 shots for goal he had 50 kicks, 41 handballs and 8 tackles for the entire year. Fat Scott Cummings kicked 95 for us in 1999 and on top of that averaged 3 disposals and under 1 tackle a game. He took 123 marks and only 7 of them were outside 50.

Compare that to Kennedy last year who kicked 82.37 (119 shots for goal) and he had 110 kicks not for goal, 71 handballs and 69 tackles - and he's not renowned as a particularly high possession forward. Modra and Cummings wouldn't get a game in today's footy playing the way they did. Footy in 2017 doesn't allow forwards to stay permanently inside 50, not chase etc. But then they trained to 1990s standards and played to the tactics of the day. Kennedy could easily play 1990s footy out of the square with a more open forward 50, but would he be good enough to kick 80, 100, 120+ goals playing on muddy grounds? Or with SOS/Mick Martyn hanging off him and punching his arms every marking contest?

 

[_Mike_]

I think you can compare players through eras, you just need to be mindful of each era.

Agree. You can argue till the cows come home as to whether or not Lloyd, Dunstall, Lockett, Quinlan etc would have kicked the amount of goals they did had they played in a different era/game style. In the end its purely subjective to the beholder (IMO)

 

[Tasfut]

Last year Kennedy kicked 82 goals from 23 games at an average of 3.57 per game.

If Kennedy and Buddy were in opposite situations last year, I believe Kennedy would have kicked 100+ plus goals for the swans. He would have had better delivery into the forward line, more opportunities for goals and the swans played 26 games last year compared to the eagles only playing 23.

 

[Scotland]

Agree. You can argue till the cows come home as to whether or not Lloyd, Dunstall, Lockett, Quinlan etc would have kicked the amount of goals they did had they played in a different era/game style. In the end its purely subjective to the beholder (IMO)

That's what BigFooty's all about!

Goal kicking records are interesting.

1, 3 and 5 on the all time list played in the 80s and 90s. 2 played in the 20s and 30s. 4 played in the 60s and 70s. The 80s and 90s were a high scoring era, but half the top 20 of all time never played in either decade.

The few modern players (played in the 2000s) in the top 20 are there from weight of games played more than anything. Franklin is only 16 games off catching Lockett, but Lockett is over 500 goals ahead. Even Lloyd "only" kicked 3.4 per game. There are a few guys averaging 4-5 or even 5+ per game, but a lot of them didn't play 200, 150 or even 100 games in the case of John Coleman. We'll never see a career like Peter Hudson again. 700+ goals in effectively two stints in the VFL, and another 1000+ goals either side of that playing in Tassie.

I see it a bit like comparing batsmen in test cricket. More players average 50 in the 2000s than did in the 70s or 80s, and players play more tests so aggregates are higher. Strike rates are also higher now. Eras are different, and players within eras are different. Steve Smith averages 60 when most of his teammates average 40-50. Doesn't make him better than Ponting or Border or whoever, but it separates him from his peers. Another element in footy is progression of physical prowess. John Coleman was 6'1 and 80kg. Gordon Coventry 6' and 85kg. These guys would be small midfielders in 2017. The bloke that revolutionised ruck work is only 191cm. NicNat and Ryder would just jump all over him.

 

[Scotland]

Last year Kennedy kicked 82 goals from 23 games at an average of 3.57 per game.

If Kennedy and Buddy were in opposite situations last year, I believe Kennedy would have kicked 100+ plus goals for the swans. He would have had better delivery into the forward line, more opportunities for goals and the swans played 26 games last year compared to the eagles only playing 23.

Franklin kicked 81.54 from 26 games (3.12 per game) and took 74 marks inside 50. Kennedy took 87. So Franklin had fewer set shots inside 50 and (anecdotally) kicked more goals from outside 50.

Extrapolating Kennedy's average from 23 games over 26 he would've kicked 93 goals, rounding up to an integer. What makes you think he'd kick 100+?

It's a bit simplistic to say that a forward in a better side would kick more goals. The Dogs won the flag and their leading goalkicker kicked 42. Cameron kicked 53 for GWS and only took 50 marks inside 50. Sydney's 2nd best forward last year was Papley with 29 while Kennedy had Darling with 44 and LeCras with 38. We took more marks inside 50 as a team despite playing 3 fewer games. Would Kennedy kick 100+ if we ****ed Darling and LeCras off and made him our sole target inside 50?

You could mount a counter argument that Franklin would relish playing at Subiaco 12 times a year with open space to lead into compared to the SCG which is 20-30m shorter.

 

[Watson_my_mind]

The 2017 Rolling All-Australian Thread