Opinion Is this where Carlton drops away? 2023 version

[My Tilly]

'Virtually everybody had them in the top 8'.

Not me.

Why didn't you rate them?

Because even though they dropped right off last year, those final two games were finals-esque and they virtually outplayed Melbourne & Collingwood but failed to hold on in the final minutes. They showed they were ready to improve on that.

 

[bourbons]

And this is the Carlton problem in the essence - the club sells itself so hard, the media buy into this, and everyone for some reason rates them much higher than they actually are. They waste more time and money spruiking about their potential than actually delivering on field.
...
They're just such an arrogant club - beating their own drum too hard, pumping themselves up and convincing the media of how great they are (when in fact they're not).

This was definitely the case in the past (they know we're coming/whats cooking etc) but I would have thought the club has been more circumspect in recent years?

Can't remember any big statements from them over the off season, its all been media hype hasn't it?

 

[bourbons]

Why would you?

Umm didn't you have us top 8 in '23 at the end of last year mate?

Have a vague memory of replying to a post of yours with wouldn't be too sure or words to that effect.

 

[freo1]

This was definitely the case in the past (they know we're coming/whats cooking etc) but I would have thought the club has been more circumspect in recent years?

Can't remember any big statements from them over the off season, its all been media hype hasn't it?

You're right - not that i see all the Carlton press but i dont remember seeing too much in the last 12 months, but the media have been soooo pumping them up which i can only assume comes from the money handlers behind closed doors at Carlton. They have an image to portray and no doubt would do what they can to have that image pumped up in the mafia (media)

 

[Fadge]

Why didn't you rate them?

Because even though they dropped right off last year, those final two games were finals-esque and they virtually outplayed Melbourne & Collingwood but failed to hold on in the final minutes. They showed they were ready to improve on that.

I shared my rationale over the off season.

Their top end performed as well as could possibly be expected in 2022, didn't have the depth to cover any injuries/loss of form to that top end, and didn't do enough during the off season to address any perceived shortcomings with their list (whilst most of the 2022 contenders did, as well as a couple from outside the top 8).

My assessment was that if absolutely everything went right for them, they could sneak into the bottom of the top 8, but how often does absolutely everything go right for any club?

 

[demondavey]

Umm didn't you have us top 8 in '23 at the end of last year mate?

Have a vague memory of replying to a post of yours with wouldn't be too sure or words to that effect.

I think I did….

 

[bourbons]

You're right - not that i see all the Carlton press but i dont remember seeing too much in the last 12 months, but the media have been soooo pumping them up which i can only assume comes from the money handlers behind closed doors at Carlton. They have an image to portray and no doubt would do what they can to have that image pumped up in the mafia (media)

lol

Carlton sells papers and drives clicks mate, simple as that. Potting the club for still being obnoxious/arrogant when they actually seem to have consciously worked to get away from that old mindset seems more than a little unfair.

Plenty of problems down at Princes Park but I don't think this is one of them.

 

[freo1]

lol

Carlton sells papers and drives clicks mate, simple as that. Potting the club for still being obnoxious/arrogant when they actually seem to have consciously worked to get away from that old mindset seems more than a little unfair.

Plenty of problems down at Princes Park but I don't think this is one of them.

But they havent worked to get away from that. Their off-field performance of continually sacking coaches and paying big bucks for players who may be good but arent match winners shows this. For me it's their admin which is the sole problem of the club - they're hell bent on upholding the old image of decades ago so just try and buy their way through problems. They continually repeat the same behaviours over an over and dont stop to realise they dont work. Buying players in back in the 80s and 90s may have worked but the comp is too tight now, you cant buy success.

 

[Gavin Excell]

It's possible they peaked in 2022 and now are naturally regressing

 

[Mitchell Madness]

It's possible they peaked in 2022 and now are naturally regressing

They haven't gone anywhere.
2022 they got really lucky early in the year. Their second half of the year was their real self

 

[Pistol Night]

It's possible they peaked in 2022 and now are naturally regressing

Wow what a glorious peak

 

[bourbons]

But they havent worked to get away from that. Their off-field performance of continually sacking coaches and paying big bucks for players who may be good but arent match winners shows this. For me it's their admin which is the sole problem of the club - they're hell bent on upholding the old image of decades ago so just try and buy their way through problems. They continually repeat the same behaviours over an over and dont stop to realise they dont work. Buying players in back in the 80s and 90s may have worked but the comp is too tight now, you cant buy success.

Ah ok gotcha, yeah probably agree I more meant the club's public statements and messaging.

Only thing I'll say is I reckon its more simply over-rating where the list is at rather than a straight-up pay to win approach ala the old days when they'd just buy genuine stars. Wouldn't have thought the players they've brought in were considered 'stars' by anyone, more role players (although we definitely paid more than we should have in a few cases). It hasn't worked but there's been plenty of bad luck to go along with the bad management, plenty of time and continuity lost to injury.

 

[Blue1980]

But they havent worked to get away from that. Their off-field performance of continually sacking coaches and paying big bucks for players who may be good but arent match winners shows this. For me it's their admin which is the sole problem of the club - they're hell bent on upholding the old image of decades ago so just try and buy their way through problems. They continually repeat the same behaviours over an over and dont stop to realise they dont work. Buying players in back in the 80s and 90s may have worked but the comp is too tight now, you cant buy success.

No one is buying flags now, there’s a salary cap.

Carlton haven’t tried to buy a flag anymore than Freo have by getting Jackson and JOM.

Point me to an article where Acres was seen as the messiah.

With our trades in, gov, Martin and Williams are failures. Getting guys in with questionable fitness on big money is never a good idea.

On the other side Saad, Hewett and Cerra very good gets.

Acres, worth as much we we are paying him, **** all.

 

[Pistol Night]

No one is buying flags now, there’s a salary cap.

Carlton haven’t tried to buy a flag anymore than Freo have by getting Jackson and JOM.

Point me to an article where Acres was seen as the messiah.

****n hell if that article exists the journo must have been pissed

 

[Ari]

If you forget about everything on field and just look at goals kicked, then things get interesting. Swap the points kicked for goals, so similar to Freo's return, and the Blues are sitting on the cusp of the 8 next to Geelong.

On-field, between the ears, coaching setup etc.... forget all of that for a moment. It's as simple as better kicking at goals and Carlton are still alive and hunting for the 8.

With all that's being said of Voss right now, better kicking accuracy would have rendered it a moot point. He doesn't kick the ball for them.

 

[Pistol Night]

If you forget about everything on field and just look at goals kicked, then things get interesting. Swap the points kicked for goals, so similar to Freo's return, and the Blues are sitting on the cusp of the 8 next to Geelong.

On-field, between the ears, coaching setup etc.... forget all of that for a moment. It's as simple as better kicking at goals and Carlton are still alive and hunting for the 8.

With all that's being said of Voss right now, better kicking accuracy would have rendered it a moot point. He doesn't kick the ball for them.

View attachment 1711777

So they just need to kick more goals? Vossy could use this info actually

 

[Ari]

So they just need to kick more goals? Vossy could use this info actually

Well, it's pretty simple.... but it's there.

If he's not analytical enough to work this out himself, then maybe it's not a moot point after all.

 

[Pistol Night]

Well, it's pretty simple.... but it's there.

If he's not analytical enough to work this out himself, then maybe it's not a moot point after all.

Harry has improved a smidge but now Charlie is spraying it like Michael.J.Fox at the urinal. Hard gig

 

[bourbons]

If you forget about everything on field and just look at goals kicked, then things get interesting. Swap the points kicked for goals, so similar to Freo's return, and the Blues are sitting on the cusp of the 8 next to Geelong.

On-field, between the ears, coaching setup etc.... forget all of that for a moment. It's as simple as better kicking at goals and Carlton are still alive and hunting for the 8.

With all that's being said of Voss right now, better kicking accuracy would have rendered it a moot point. He doesn't kick the ball for them.

View attachment 1711777

I can't see any data in that table about where our shots at goal are coming from. Would be absolutely staggered if we weren't in the bottom few teams in terms of difficulty/whereabouts on the ground those shots are happening.

Player skills are exacerbating the issue, but I think our system is a decent piece of the puzzle too. Seems like we've tried to limit our exposure on turnover and stop teams getting sustained run-ons against us - problem there is it also seems to have created some of the most slow unimaginative footy with ball in hand you will ever see. There's no run from behind, no line breaking, no risk, hell barely even any handball or switching, which all leads to extremely predictable, shallow, wide or contested forward 50 entries. Which in turn leads to very low percentage shots even when we do get the ball from these entries.

 

[Foxx]

You sure about that?

Yes.

 

[Cdog71]

Yes.

I like to think of myself as a true football supporter, go to local footy and get involved at my club.
Help out.

But until such time as the 37 yr Helen D’marco curse has been repeated in full.
…let em wallow.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Nobody could have possibly predicted the extent that the Blues have fallen away this season. Virtually everybody had them making the 8 with many saying top 4 before the season started.

I was concerned with Carlton's depth, and have been vocal about it for years now.

I thought finals were possible this season if injuries didn't strike.

Then round 1 happened. I still remember the commentary at the coin toss. 'Two sides who will be pushing for top 4'.
The moment the final siren rang out on one of the most underwhelming draws I've ever seen, I messaged my mates and said 'Neither Richmond or Carlton will play finals this year'.

That opinion hasn't changed since that moment.

You're really only as strong as your bottom 6 players in AFL footy. Carlton's position on the ladder currently is proof of this IMO. It's all a list management problem.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Ffs Carlton, no true footy supporter wants to see you down for this bloody long! Get up!

Damn, that means I'm not a true footy supporter

 

[SBYM]

I have them for

vs Bulldogs - W
vs Collingwood - L
vs Sydney - L
vs Melbourne - L
vs Essendon - W
vs Gold Coast - W
vs Hawthorn - W
vs Fremantle - W
vs Port Adelaide - L
vs West Coast - W
vs Collingwood - L
vs St. Kilda - W
vs Gold Coast - W
vs GWS - W

Any chance this offer is still valid?

 

[freo1]

No one is buying flags now, there’s a salary cap.

Carlton haven’t tried to buy a flag anymore than Freo have by getting Jackson and JOM.

Point me to an article where Acres was seen as the messiah.

With our trades in, gov, Martin and Williams are failures. Getting guys in with questionable fitness on big money is never a good idea.

On the other side Saad, Hewett and Cerra very good gets.

Acres, worth as much we we are paying him, * all.

oh please - salary cap does a little bit but dont tell me clubs arent providing other benefits and "employment" opportunities to bump up their pay.

I never said Acres was the messiah - i'm saying you're trading in the wrong guys - flankers, half backs, wingers and the like and paying them big overs for what they bring. There was a reason Freo's offer to Acres was small. He chased the coin to you guys who offered him more. As for Cerra, hardly a "very good get", serviceable at best. just a good foot soldier to have, but for a pick 5 in the draft he should be much better. You paid massive overs for what he brings to your club. we're laughing having picked up Jye Amiss for Cerra.